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11/25/14

Vancouver Venture's Exchange Prediction

Five more miserable years, right here. Good anecdotals, backed up by numbers. There's a lot of pain to crawl through in the mining scene says PS Dave and his lunchtime drinking pals.

IMPACT Silver (IPT.v) 3q14 numbers

Time playing with numbers on a slow news days, IMPACT Silver (IPT.v) reported its quarter this morning edition.

Frankly they could have been a lot worse. Which surprised me. They're going to have a tough time in 4q14 with the lower silver price, plus it looks as though they're hi-grading (though the company says that grade fluctuates under normal circumstances and two mines have worked into higher grading material, so maybe doubt can be offered). But they're keeping head above water and ops got back to FCF+



Mi más sentido pésame para Marcelo Gallardo y toda su familia

Aguanta Muñeco. Tu otra familia está para vos.

Bear Creek (BCM.v), Peru, law suits, Puno elections (from IKN289)

Here's what subscribers read on Sunday about Bear Creek Mining (BCM.v) and its lawsuit with the government of Peru over the Santa Ana project, plus an update on how the run-off election for governor of Puno region, set for a December 7th vote, is going.

You get to read it Tuesday morning.

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Peru: More on the Bear Creek Santa Ana developments
On the blog Friday I reported the development in the Bear Creek (BCM.v) Santa Ana vs Peru government case, in which the company had reportedly dropped its court action against the State (33). It turns out to be true, but the reason behind the BCM.v is more straightforward than first met the eye. Even though local anti-Santa Ana leaders in the Puno region were quick to claim a victory on the back of the move (34) it turns out that the dropping of the case in the national courtrooms was a requirement for the case to continue and be heard in the International CIADI/ICSID tribunal (the body attached to the World Bank that hears international arbitration cases and gives unappealable verdicts). In the words of this report in local Puno media Pachamama (35) on Friday evening (translated) “...a spokesperson for the Canadian mining company told Pachamama Radio that under the Free Trade Agreement (FTA) between Peru and Canada, the company had taken its case to the CIADI tribunal in order to resolve the controversy”. However, the spokesperson said that in order to hear that case at this international court, all judicial processes in Peru had to be stopped, which is why the company asked for the case it had brought in 2012 against the Mining and Energy Ministry, The Defence Ministry and the National Executive of Peru to be stood down.

To my surprise BCM didn’t make any sort of announcement about this material event last week. It should do soon (unless the Canadian authorities are even more lax than I suspect) and when it does, we should expect them to state that they are now concentrating 100% on the international arbitration body (as well as their absolute confidence in winning etc etc). Although the shelving of the Peru court case doesn’t preclude an out of court settlement between the two parties, we should now expect the dispute to go the full distance at CIADI/ICSID and that’s a question of perhaps a couple of years in realistic terms before a verdict is reached (though a judgment in 2015 isn’t out of the question). Bottom line: Santa Ana BCM vs Peru continues, but don’t hold your breath.

In other news, polling in Puno region has Luque on 54% and Aduviri on 46% for the December 7th run-off vote. That’s closer than I expected (though the polls are not particularly reliable in Puno region), but fits with word received that Luque has been keeping a low public declarations profile and allowing Walter Aduviri to make more of local media channels to promote his cause and detract from that of his rival, as he’s been using plenty of negative attacks. The two candidates will meet next Sunday evening November 30th in live debate, at which point we’ll have a clearer picture. 


11/24/14

Kevin McArthur, Pres/CEO of Tahoe Resources (TAHO) (THO.to), turns a chunk of his shares into $10m cash

Via the magic of capital markets and insider sales. Ka-Ching, baby.



He'll tell you he deserves it. What colour Ferrari, Kev*?


*True fact: people named Kev love Ferraris

Gran Colombia Gold (GCM.to) and Colossus Minerals (ex-CSI.to)

Back in August this year, this humble corner of cyberspace mused on the then-market cap of Gran Colombia Gold (GCM.to) by stating...
"The fun starts in November, when the gold notes start coming due. We can only hope the creditors behave themselves, form an orderly queue and don't start squabbling over who gets paid first. Impressively, this thing still has a market cap of around $35m. That won't last, though."
...and that little prediction has (horror of horrors, Fino) turned out to be true. As I checked out a couple of screen filters this morning I noticed that GCM.to was now down to a $15m market cap and there was something about that number which...what was it...reminding me...of....Aaaah yeah that's it, this post dated December 31st 2013 about Colossus Minerals:


CSI then proceeded to disappear up its own hind quarters, victim of poor operations and heavy debt. Remind you of any current cases out there? Yeah, me too. 




Chart of the day is...

...this.



There is no spoon.

11/23/14

The IKN Weekly, out now



IKN289 has just been sent to subscribers. Plenty about Peru political events as pertains to the mining industry this week. Plus analysis of a couple of small juniors and coverage of our preferred stocks, of course. 17,200 words, 35 pages, guaranteed to break the ice at parties or the Leafs rink.

Que duro es ser hincha de River.