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9/2/14

Expert copper supply predictions, episode 958

JP Morgan, September 2013: Toromocho will produce 167,000 tonnes of copper in 2014.

Toromocho, September 2014: Toromocho will produce 85,000 tonnes of copper in 2014.

Any questions?


Confusion

With gold down 1.75% today and silver following suit, wasn't my junior mining portfolio supposed to be tanking down like the proverbial lead Zeppelin? How come my junior mining account's in the green this morning? Why are there several stocks showing green on my list? Why do fools fall in love?

I'm not worried though, because it probably won't last.


Chart of the day is...

...gold, weeklies:


Gird your loins, the game's afoot.

This morning's dumpage down to $1,270/oz will of course be greeted by the normal splutterings and shouts of illuminati from the dumbass end of the sphere. Let 'em, they don't matter anyway, they're not selling any of their prepper stash and they have no money to buy any more. They don't matter.

People who buy and sell gold mining shares, now they might see opportunity here. Got to be the right ones, though.

9/1/14

Screwtape on gold

GM Jenkins over at the Screwtape Files is one of those rare birds; a smart and thoughtful technical analyst. We get two calls on gold from him today:

1) Gold is about to make its move after a long consolidation period
2) On balance, he thinks the move is going to be down.

God news: Voice meets hand

Today saw the "Match For Peace" get together in the Vatican that's all about sporting people getting smiley with The Pope and promoting good things for humanity. And that's fine by me. 

It also included this moment:


Or as Twitterpal RickB aptly put it:

Things that don't get talked about that you don't talk about in South America

After a while in LatAm you begin to notice the gaps in the noise, rather than the noise itself. An example of this is the lack of protests about freedom of speech and right to protest in Colombia, compared to Venezuela where you'll get marches and student rallies on a regular basis. Colombia doesn't have a militant political ideology split driving public opinion and opposition to the consensus view is most definitely not funded by overseas slush money. What Colombia has in the militarized areas is a population that won't protest, march or kick up a fuss because the people who do tend to be shot dead straight afterwards. That's not fakey fear, that's a wholly understandable silence in the face of real danger.

Another is the drugs trade in Peru. Now, over time there have been a couple of occasions when I've been gently informed by the outside world (not going into details) that it really would be best not to get interested in the cocaine business in Peru, start poking around, investigating and asking questions, sticking a post or two up here on this humble corner of cyberspace. The hints and advice has always been gentle and friendly, but you also know that behind the soft words there are harder ones waiting if necessary. What's more I have no problem at all with ignoring the subject because a) I'm a coward b) I'm a married coward with two small kids c) I have enough to fill my limited mental capacity already without complicating things for no apparent reason. As a result I generally ignore the subject and its coverage gap, there are better and easier things to do.

But I will say one thing about Peru and cocaine in the 21st century today, only because it's on my mind and it won't cause a fuss: The small-time narco-biz gets normal coverage, but when it comes to the big-time action, the multi-million dollar business of manufacturing and moving white powders from A to B, the Peruvian press and polite society will always, but always blame either foreign nationals or the terrorist remnant organization left over from Shining Path for the big trafficking action. Colombians, Mexicans, Bolivians, whoever else. It's never the fault or responsibility of Peruvian nationals and that's not a coincidence. It's just another one of those holes in the noise.

Here endeth the post.

UPDATE: To back up the point made about Colombia, this news today.

Bolivia knowledge test

Your pro-tip of the day is to read the comments sections of posts in high traffic economics blogs in order to gauge the level of public ignorance about the subject in question. Today's example is Marginal Revolution on Bolivia, right here (h/t drunkeynsian). Tyler Cowen gets most things right-ish inside the boundaries of fair opinion (the only thing he really misses is how Bolivia's gas exports to Brazil and Argentina are covered by long-term contracts, so Brazil's apparent near recession isn't Bolivia's) but the people lining up to give their two cents are already cringeworthy.

PS: There's another thing. If you notice the previous post on MR, it's a fair guess that Cowen has just picked up a book on Bolivia and managed to put together a pretty cogent post on the country's outlook (again, within a margin of error and taking into account personal views and tastes) in a short period of time and without being any sort of deeply read expert. The hallmark of smart scholar is to be able to do that sort of thing.

Fe erratum

I've waited until Sunday evening to run  this correction because weekend traffic for the financial-mining things is always light. In this way it gets to been seen at the top of the page Monday morning, and in the Monday email digests. 

On Thursday 28th August in this post I stated that Geologic Resource Partners was owned by Klaus Zeitler, CEO of Amerigo Resources (ARG.to) and as such, the implication was that he owned 22m shares of his company ARG.to via that holding company.

That was incorrect information. In fact Zeitler has no connection to Geologic Resource Partners and is not the person who has been buying the stock recently, either directly or indirectly. Although the post was written in good faith I got my wires crossed and apologize for the error.