Before going any further I going to repeat that I am not a TA fan. However, over the last couple of years a couple of people have opened my eyes to the subject a little more, and one of those people actually runs a website and offers his services to the world (and according to this competition he's just won, he's pretty good at it).
So anyway, back to this copper chart. Here we are back at almost U$4/lb for the red metal, and it doesn't take Einstein to see the obvious ceiling here. I lightened PCU on Friday due to this, and that despite loving the company and seeing great things for its earnings this year. There are a lot of people trying to talk commodities down right now, and if copper retreats to the $3.70 level this week the bears will be out in droves, hammering home the "we're all gonna die" message and shaking weak hands free of their stocks.
So the trade is to watch copper Monday, and if it starts to confirm my suspicions that it will fail to beat $4 in any serious way, sell PCU with a view to moving back in at U$105 as copper falls to $3.70 or so. Here's a simple chart with the 50DMA added to give an idea of PCU's recent trading range.
Now, once again I'll make it clear that this isn't a stockpicking blog. I'll also make it clear that I may change my mind or adjust the play at any given moment tomorrow or during the week, and i'm not going to feel obliged to publish about it. That's the way it is. If you're reading this, remember I'm treating you like an adult who's big enough to make decisions and take responsibilities all by yourself. That said, the set-up is pretty clear so let's see how it works out versus reality. Have a good one.