8/10/08

Evo 61% (see updates)


In Bolivia, all exit polls are calling President Evo Morales the winner tonight with the more reliable guesstimates between 60% and 62%. This means that Evo has substantially increased his popularity in the 2 1/2 years of his government (he scored 53.7% in the Presidential election).

This chart gives a breakdown of exit poll numbers according to the nine regions (departments) in Bolivia, and it's very clear how the half moon states look differently on Evo (green for 'yes', red for 'no'...duh). It must be pointed out clearly that this is an exit poll count and is not the official result. We'll have to wait a couple of days for the final numbers, but it does give a rough and ready idea of vote breakdown.

Now that Evo has been democratically ratified as President, his job will be to try and heal the rifts between the West and the East of his country. As well as stating he will now push forward with a new constitution, Evo has told the half moon states he is willing to negotiate greater autonomy powers with the local governors (prefects). Today's vote has strengthened Evo's position in the country, but it is up to him to decide how to use that strength.

As for those prefects, exit polls indicate that Luis Alberto Aguilar (Oruro), José Luis Paredes (La Paz) and Manfred Reyes Villa (Cochabamba) have all lost their jobs. Paredes was expected, but Aguilar was a member of Evo's MAS party and shows there really was voter democracy going on here. As for the autonomists, Reyes Villa's loss in Cochabamba may become the biggest story of the whole recall election in the next few days. This leader has refused to recognize this recall vote and is likely to cause trouble.

UPDATE: Just under 5 hours after the close, and projections now give Morales 62.4% of the vote.

UPDATE 2 (midnight in La Paz): Evo is now being called at 63.1% by most reliable media.