Happy Muffin- Cedatos, interviewed 40,000 people on exit and give Yes at 70% and No at 24%, margin of error +-2%
- SP interviewed 3,500 people on exit and has Yes at 66.4% and No at 25.4%, margin of error +-1.5%
Interestingly, the number of spoiled ballots seems very low, with between 6% and 8% quoted. This differs sharply from pre-vote polls and indicates that the undecided voters went with Correa's "Yes" vote en masse. We have to wait up to 10 days for the official final results, but there's not much doubt about it anyway. Even the staunch anti-correa stronghold of Guayaquil has voted more "yes" than "no" according to the exit polls. A real landslide for Correa.
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2 comments:
You're always going to get 20% or so of the people to be intransigent to change when you are generally the underdog, because the elite then still has the power of the mass-media and the institutions -- with which to breed and instill fear in the more ignorant and/or selfish sections of the population. However, with the mass persuasive power of a social revolution underway over an extended period of time, we could expect up to even half of this 20-30% to melt away from the hardcore revanchists -- who will simply have to die off and be replaced by their more reasonable descendents.
Social revolutionaries should always keep these ballpark figures in mind.
Oh frabjous day, callooh, callay. I chortle in my joy...
I did predict at least 65% support, did I not?
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