Metals are down (Therefore Chile and Peru are toast)
Soft commods down (Therefore Argentina and Brazil are toast)
So it occurred to me to look at a few stocks that cover both LatAm and commodities of various shapes and sizes. What I saw was a real eye-epener:
What this shows is that current share price action has nothing repeat nothing to do with real market forces like supply, demand etc. It shows that political risk factors are being totally ignored. It shows that the market has no idea about what it is truly buying or selling. This because the only thing that can be concluded from this chart is that all commodities are but one thing, and according to the crazy price action and the crazier people that drive it, all the LatAm states involved with their production are just one big, homogenous risk.
Personally, and as an example, I think PBR at U$28 is a great price now (if you take a medium-term perspective); It may go lower (re-test $25?) but oil has a profit floor these days, thanks to things like Canadian Oil Sands. And when Obama gets in, do you really think OPEC will keep the spigots wide open? Think about it.....