Still waiting for overpaid analysts to speak before making your mind up? Oh, how passé......
It seems the LatAm movers, shakers and powers-that-be read this humble corner of cyberspace. On Sunday and Monday, your on-the-ball Otto explained why (contrary to popular opinion), Venezuela wasn't in any immediate trouble from the North's financial meltdown and oil prices where they are will suffice. Today, Reuters finally gets round to telling the world their own version of the story which is....well....it's the same.
Here's the link to Brian Ellworth's analysis report, and putting the silly snark aside I have to say he's done a good job, found the right people to quote and got it just about right imho (except getting that old chestnut about devaluation in there...that's nonsense). Some extracts:
"They're going to have to tone down the usual expenditure programs, but it's obviously not an emergency situation," said Enrique Alvarez, head of Latin American debt strategy with financial research group IDEAGlobal..........
....And the nation's economy will not collapse overnight -- even if the credit crisis drastically reduces oil prices........
.....a fall in oil prices below $80 per barrel would give Chavez less money for social programs and trim down the nation's robust current account surplus. "But Chavez has ample financial public assets to draw from even in the event of a sustained oil price fall,"
So go read the whole Reuters article and then check back at my posts from earlier this week; you'll see it's the same argument and then (almost certainly) marvel at how prescient Otto really is. Do IDEAGlobal and Eurasia Group read Incakola news? Maybe someone there writes Incakola news? YOU BE THE JUDGE!
Venezuela, and why $70/bbl is enough in 2009