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12/2/08

Chavez forever


In what must come as a shock to nobody at all, Hugo is now putting the wheels in motion for a referendum on presidential re-elections. Why so? Here are five points to consider. Add some more if you want:

1) Under the present rules, he gets to be bigboss until 2012, then it's all over. It's no secret that Chávez wants more time in charge. It's no secret that his party want him there, too.

2) With a change of plan, he can get another seven year term and rule the revolution until 2019. That's one thing that's rather different from most administration term times in South America; Evo gets 4 years, Twobreakfasts gets five. Hugo gets a full seven.

3) Though his supporters and party faithful might not want to admit it, the revolution really is a one man show. There's nobody with even 10% of the charisma of Chávez in his party. Come to think of it, he outshines the opposition by a mile, too. Love him or hate him, there's no doubt who the bossman is.

4) He takes his cue from Fidel on this one. Castro Sr has told him straight that the future of the revolution is in his hands. Not only is this true, but it also plays to Hugo's ego bigtime. Hugo is a willing student on this issue.

5) If it goes to the vote now, Chávez will almost certainly win. Fact is that behind the triumphalism of the Chávez opposition and the media crowing that the election was some kind of loss for Hugo, the results weren't that bad at all. There were no big shocks in any result, and his brother Adan won the supposedly tight race for Barinas (note where the shouts of fraud are loudest). Also, there were many pro-Chávez voters who didn't vote in the regionals, especially in the provincial regions that were virtual locks for Chávez. This time he and the PSUV party machine will make every vote count and it's very tough to see him losing such a vote. Pro-Chávez got 53% of the popular vote on November 23rd...that would be a baseline, not a target.

So Chávez is pushing for a vote to be organized as early as January (as mentioned to his faithful yesterday at the swearng in of Rafael Isea as governor of Aragua yesterday). There's one thing about this guy known as a dictator by the idiot right; he sure puts on a lot of elections.

UPDATE: Quite correctly, I've been corrected four times already from various quarters that the Venezuela presidential term is six years, not seven. I blame writing before drinking my early morning java, but no real excuse. My bad and I appreciate the corrections.