But then the idiot hacks start chiming in and showing that their little knowledge really is a dangerous thing. Step forward Tyler Bridges, painfully anti-Chavista McClatchy hack and manic depressive, stuck in Caracas and yearning to be back in Lima. He picks up on the deal and uses it to wade into the whole subject of the Venezuelan Bolivar Fuerte (VEF) parallel exchange rate. Bridges dixit:
"The current situation can only mean bad news for the Chavez administration. It seems to show that Venezuelans have little faith in the country's economy and in the bolivar."Any further weakening of the Bolivar will mean problems for Chavez."
However, once again Tyler is talking bollocks. What Bridges doesn't bother to give you are two rather basic and useful things:
2) Any context
Here's a table showing how the main traded LatAm currencies and the VEF have performed against the US dollar in the last two months, the period before and after the PdVSA sale.
For those not into forex code, BRL= Brazilian Real, COP= Colombian Peso, VEF = Venezuelan Bolivar Fuerte, CLP= Chilean Peso, MXN= Mexican Peso, ARS= Argentine Peso, PEN= Peruvian Nuevo SolSo in the period (and ignoring the one-day -0.7% downmove in the VEF that Tyler Bridges seems to think signifies the end of the freakin' world) we have four currencies that have become stronger against the dollar (BRL, COP, VEF, CLP) and three currencies that have lost ground against the dollar (MXN, ARS, PEN).
I'm not here telling you that the VEF is some paragon of stability and investment value. It's not. I'm just saying that all that guff directed at Venezuela should apply to nearly all the region if true context were taken. And as the VEF has beaten out a currency like the Peruvian Nuevo Sol by a wide 6.2% in the period, our pal Bridges should be more worried about his yearned-for Peruvian shores far more than the country he's unduly whacking into once again.
Or put simply, he's a dumbass.

![[Most Recent Quotes from www.kitco.com]](http://www.kitconet.com/charts/metals/gold/t24_au_en_usoz_2.gif)


9 comments:
Rather than worrying about Venezuela Bolivar Fuerte vs. the US$, the more interesting currency story of the past few months has been watching the Brazil-Argentina spread. I don't think enough analysts are paying attention there.
And whatever happened to that swap pool plan between Argentina and Brazil? Lula seems to have quietly dropped that idea...
...and back on topic:
I don't think it's fair to measure the "effect" of the bond on the swap market by looking at what happened in the last two months. Details of the bond were known only a week ago and even then there was a lot of confusion. Before then many were speculating that it was going to be this great deal as it has been in the past (pretty much a racket). But this time it sucked. For those speculating that they would do better participating on this issue rather than purchasing US$ through the swap market, it looks like there will only be a 5%-10% differential (at best). This is uncomfortably close given the risks, as this spread can evaporate rather quickly.
Also, only 47% of the bond issue was placed. Orders with bids under 175% went unfulfilled. Pretty clear indication that half participants thought little of the bond issue. Keep in mind the yield was enormous and people still didn't go for it. Things must really suck then.
Further, if we look at what has happened to the BsF vs the US$ in the last 12 months (rather than just two) we can see it has devalued 94%. Now if that doesn't concern Pte. Chavez in a country more and more dependant on imports which in turn depend increasingly on the swap market, then he must be a real distracted fellow.
Combine the bond issue results, recent the Bs vs $ performance, and current and possible future oil price behavior, I think we can conclude that you were a little harsh with Mr. Bridges, huh?. I gather you don’t like the gentleman.
"....Further, if we look at what has happened to the BsF vs the US$ in the last 12 months (rather than just two) we can see it has devalued 94%...."
Err, no. Learn how percentages work, please.
Well, let's see, I do it this way:
Swap BsF/US$ July 2008: About 3.4
Swap BsF/US$ July 2009: About 6.5
6.5 / 3.4 = 1.91
I say this is 91%. So yes, sorry, only 91% rather than 94%
Cheers.
Edgar,
You know that phrase "when you're in a hole, stop digging"? Well it applies to you right here right now.
I really do strongly suggest you go over how you think percentages work, then go over the way all the rest of the world thinks on the subject and compare the differences. Just a piece of friendly advice.
Well, let me dig myself out of that hole!.
I'm not an economist and it shows. For the life of me I don't know why a devaluation is calculated "opposite" of what I expected but so be it. That’s convention and I accept it.
Point is the BsF has lost half its value vs. the US$ in a year. There. Let's put it that way. It should worry somebody, least of all the presidente.
Rumors about the bond stopped the BsF slide this year. Now that we see the bond issue for what it was (a flop in every sense), we have to monitor the BsF vs. $ behavior from now on to gauge its "effectiveness". I don't think it looks too good.
Cheers.
"in a country more and more dependant on imports" - Edgar González spinning the opposition double speak on Venezuela.
1) What imports are you talking about?
2) Link us to some figures
3) Dependance on food exports is falling and has been for more than 4 years.
Now if you were to say that non-petroleum EXPORTS had fallen you would be correct. Who is going to sell abroad in dollars and then be obliged to sell the dollars to the Central Bank at 2.15 when the parallel market is 6.4? No one.
As Otto points out regularly on this blog, the opposition has been pushing and predicting the collapse of the economy since 2001.The only time it nearly happened was during the oil industry sabotage in 2002-2003 which the opposition engineered.
The ecoonomy has grown for at least 21 consecutive quarters and the main boost comes from the private sector. Check it all out on the BCV web site.
Finally, the VEF is a small component of the overall economy. The avst majority of venezuelans never leave the country and have no interest in the VEF rate.
I cannot vouch 100% for this but less than one million Vnezuelans out of 28.3 million actually travel abroad. Hence your concerns are those of the vast MINORITY of us.
Otto - correction. Point 3) should read food "imports" and not "exports".
Just me living in an upside down world for a minute or two.
Post a Comment