The Bank Stress Test Report Official Results and Link

I persnally don't care, neither does the dude who sent me the link (thanks 'R') But I know some of you do out there, so by way of public service here's the link to the official Federal Reserve Board PDF report on the bank stress tests, as published a couple of minutes ago.

enjoy

Intriguing: Buenaventura (BVN) wants to buy into Argentine junior exposure

So which projects? It would likely be gold target, but BVN produces plenty of silver too, so a silver/gold of plain old silver would be possible.

That Mansfield Minerals (MDR.v) Lindero property strikes me as being the right kind of fit; 2m oz Au and MDR has things in Peru, too. Mind you, I'm just throwing out an educated guess....anyone else have an idea?

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

LIMA (Reuters) - Peruvian precious metals miner Buenaventura (BUEv.LM: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) (BVN.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) is in talks to buy controlling stakes in two Argentine junior miners, the company's top official said on Thursday.

"The idea in these specific projects is that we'd have a majority participation, or 100 percent control," Chief Executive Roque Benavides said at the Reuters Latin American Investment Summit in Lima.

"We are in conversations. There is nothing concrete to report yet."

Operations at the company's La Zanja gold project in Peru, which is expected to produce some 100,000 ounces of gold per year, could start as early as the first quarter of 2010, said Benavides.

He forecast the company's gold output for the year, excluding its share of production from the Yanacocha mine, at a bit above 450,000 ounces, which is more than the 422,732 ounces reported for 2008.

(Reporting by Marco Aquino and Dana Ford)

Beauty Queen Poker: I'll see your Miss California and raise you a Miss Panama

Sorry guys, you lose....we be holding nuts.

This 25 second youtube (seen by 350,000 people so far) is best appreciated by Spanish speakers and has Giosue Cozzarelli, a candidate for Miss Panama 2009, answering her question about the venerable Confucius. Apparently he was a "Chinese Japanese" person and "one of the people that invented confusion".

I am not making this up

UPDATE: In the comments section, reader Jimmy left this link to a youtube version with English subtitles. Kind of you Jimmy, thank you.

Trading Post (epic fail edition)

Cosan (CZZ) up 1.8% at $4.57 and I didn't get on board cos I tried to be fancysmart and fish for something $3.50ish when CZZ stood at $3.80ish last week. Moral of the story is "don't play cute with the market, cos the market slaps faces". Epic fail chez Otto.

Fronteer (FRG) down 4.6% at $2.50 and I shudda known it was going to happen after reading this contrary indicator at sinkingalpha today (err..."thanks" to the three people who sent the link..very funny, guys). Mindnumbingly awful piece of analysis, so remember this goden rule, folks: Exclamation mark in title of finance article = SEVERE DANGER. Oh My! Epic Fail!

Vale (VALE) down 5.15% at $18.08. Mgmt put on a brave face about it when asked and told us all that the company was solid. But a $300m net revenue miss is a $300m net revenue miss. Epic fail, and guidance on iron ore demand sucks.

Mercado Libre (MELI) down 17.5% at $23.89. First quarter results! Sales missed expectations! Epic Fail!

Capella Resources (KPS.v) down 6.7% at $0.42. This one goes out to the foulmouthed dumbass who commented (anonymously, of course) on the original exposé post about KPS, telling me all about the past sexual history of my mother and how he'd "load the f****** boat at eighty!" at the time (it was bouncing around 85c). Well dude, both my mother and I hope you took out a second mortgage on that trade. An epic, epic, epic, EPIC fail. Please write again if you want 10 bucks via PayPal.

Regarding Press Freedom: Mexico teaches 'em how to really gag the press

Carlos Ortega Melo Samper, QEPD

After my rant about the BS lies being perpetrated by rank amateur journalists serving up cherrypicked "facts" and one-sided crap in Bolivia yesterday, today it's worth checking out real tales of high-order press gagging in Latin America. It's called "kill the reporter" and it does tend to keep them quiet afterwards.

Carlos Ortega Melo Samper was shot to death on Monday in the northern Durango region of Mexico. He had recently published a report outlining corruption in the local municipality in question. Furthermore, he clearly feared for his life, as on April 29th he wrote a letter to his newspaper, Tiempo (de Durango), in which he wrote that he had been threatened by the municipal President of Durango, Martín Silvestre Herrera, and two other local government associates of the municipal president, Juan Manuel Calderón Herrera and Salvador Flores Triana. The letter was not published in the newspaper, perhaps under instructions from the now dead journalist. The newspaper editor has been quick to point out that the case is not connected to organized crime, but political corruption and graft.

Meanwhile, Prensa Latina has published the list of 11 journalists murdered in Latin America in the first three months of 2009. The 11 unfortunates now joined by Carlos Ortega Melo Samper include three from Mexico, two from Colombia, two from Venezuela, two from Honduras, one from Guatemala and one from Paraguay......and none in Bolivia.

Be prepared

You can't fault the US Army on anticipating the future. In its current War Games conference named 'Unified Quest 2009' (wow...sexy) the officer class of the great and the good is considering the future of world conflict and situations they might face in the next 10 years or so, including this totally hypothetical...repeat totally hypothetical...I mean whatever would make you imagine it to be anything except totally hypothetical....... situation:

"In South America, Bolivia is divided between left and right wings after the failure of a leftist regime and the U.S. Army is providing medical aid and building roads, while fighting foreign and domestic terrorists and drug gangs at home."

So nice of them to be thinking of us down here. Makes me feel all warm inside.

Businessy things

The big LatAm company story is Vale (VALE) who missed on earnings, with revenues of $1.36Bn to an analyst expected $1.66Bn. Here's the bloomie report that sums up the most interesting numbers and the necessary reactions (you'll note from the report that VALE is slightly up in European tradign this morning...bull is as bull does, y'know).

Meanwhile, for once I feel like dipping in my toe to the bigger paddling pool that you guys splash around in up there. It's more fun to watch the spin you get, cos it's on a whole other level to the stuff we get. It's like comparing Monty Python to people falling over.

I liked the starting line to this note in the Austraian Daily Reckoning: "Happy days are here again. It’s like someone turned back the clock to 2007. You’re a crank and a nutjob if you think there are serious problems in the financial system". Yep.

That Daily Reckoning article sure makes juxtaposition to this one from AP yesterday. "Stocks jump as fears ebb about bank stress tests' is a neat chronicle of how the US bank-Feddy people pulled a cute number on the market by drip leaking the necessary info with perfect timing and planning. It really was a masterful use of financial media yesterday.

Also, note how businesses have managed to bring great relief with their "smaller sales declines in April". Phew! For a minute there I thought they'd sold less!

Finally, for traders getting carried away by the rush of market love, Lucas has a very interesting post that might help you home in on a method of playing the bull. Logically he's found an interesting way of screening for stock trading opportunities and his comments are smart, too....well, that's expected from the dude. Go have a look, traderypeople.

Chart of the day is.....

....this, which shows the number of part-time workers in the USA.

I'd like to know who's in charge of the charts corner at Casey, because whoever it is does a 10X better job than the company average. It does feel weird reco'ing a Casey chart for the second time in the last few weeks but credit where credit is due, this is an astute observation. Here's the original link for the charty notes and it's worth reading the few words...just don't go down that rabbit hole they offer, please. It'll be the most expensive free offer of your life.

"So how was the reaction to 'The IKN Weekly', Otto?"

I've had that question quite a lot over the last 48 hours. The answer is "pretty darned good", in fact and it's been pleasing for me to hear that people really have extracted value from the first issue. Overall it's been general positive noises (even outright praise) and importantly some solid, constructive comments from subscribers that should help me add more value going forward (if any subscribers would like to add a word in the comments section of this post, don't let me stop you :-).

This week's issue is just starting to take shape (in my brain at least, which is why it occurred to me to write this post) and I've started to put together the political comments section for Issue Two which goes out Sunday. Also part of this week's issue will be a NOBS report on Minera Andes (MAI.to) and to give the 99.9999996% of the human race that hasn't signed up a further reason to join, if you get on board now I'll send Issue One of 'The IKN Weekly' over as well. Hey....just trying a pitch...gimme a break, yeah?

For further details of the service, what it contains, how it can benefit you as a mining sector investor and how to sign up, please check this link to the original announcement post. At $25 per month and with easy unsubscription if you don't like the service, there's not much in the way of risk.

Down and Out in Paris and London and Quito

MEV doing her thing today

Maria Elsa Viteri is a busy lady. Ecuador's FinMin has today presented her 2008 fiscal transparency report which has lots of bits and bobs and technical stuffs (here's her full presentation, and it's pretty good in fact...Spanish language of course) but the one to take away for outsiders looking in is that the country's fiscal revenues are forecast to come up short by some U$1.34Bn to meet the U$14.1Bn 2009 expenditure budget. But not to worry, sez Viteri, cos loans from the Latin American Reserve Fund (FLR), the Interamerican Development Bank (BID), the Andean Development Corporation (CAF) and some tips thrown in from China and Iran will cover the gap.

Then MEV is off on a jolly jaunt to Europe (DJNW link) in the last two weeks of this month as she visits Paris and London to talk face-to-face with the holders of the defaulted bonds. She mentioned as a presser yesterday that Ecuador might be able to pay a tad over the 30c on the dollar that's the basline offer for the debt retirement, but there wasn't much cash around and any extra would be small. This has been taken as a softening of position by Studmuffin, as he's clearly given his right-hand-lady in all things economy a bit of room...not much, just a bit. However she also specifically said the payments would be on the principal only and no interest gets paid.

If you recall, Ecuador bondholders protesters-holder-outers made their first move last week, demanding full payment and interest. Let's see if MEV wins hearts and minds in Europe and heads those pesky vulture funds off at the pass. Watch this space.

Trading Post (think zinc edition)

Upmoves in most everything metallic, but a massive upmove in zinc. Here's the three month chart:

Breakwater Resources (BWR.to) up 15% at $0.23. Remember this one? We used to follow it last year and I've always looked to it as a good way of leveraging Zn. It was bouncing around 8c at the end of last year, and here we are back at a price that finally...finally drags me away from my Latam-centric viewpoint and catches my attention again. If this Zn move is really for real (which I doubt..saying it again), BWR.to will go higher, be in no doubt. Check the 24 month chart on the stock to see where it came from.

Vena Resources (VEM.to) up 9.2% at $0.295. Vena also has significant zinc exposure via its Azulcocha mine in Peru. It's in good position to move forward quickly, too, as all the government permit are now in place. I like this stock for all sorts of reasons, though, not just the Zn angle.

Fortuna Silver (FVI.v) up a penny at $0.89, which will be a great relief to the Bob Moriarty's flock as he's now climbed back to UNCH on his reco. C'mon Blowhard...buy few more and let's get you back in the green. The 1q09 report is due May 15th and we're looking for good numbers, remember. However further down the line watch out for mark-to-markets in 2q09.

Fronteer (FRG) up 2.6% at $2.63 and can't seem to break out from this level. Those wishing to buy (and it's still cheap) sould be able to get in in the $2.50s if they wait around. I own, I like, I got long-term (one of the very few stocks I'm prepared to hold through...all depends on my resolve).

Bolivia: Stop Stupidity

Well waddya know? Enders is a blue-eyed-whitey. Hoodathunkit...

When The Miami Herald starts a report with.....

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

LA PAZ, Bolivia -- With some newspapers and broadcast outlets relentlessly exposing the government's shortcomings, President Evo Morales and his supporters say the privately-owned media have sided with his opponents yada yada continues here

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

....you just know you're in for a deception-filled feast of fun about Bolivia. What follows those opening lines is pretty much as you'd expect, laying heavily on anti-Evo BS, slipping cute words like 'autocrat' in there and trying to make out that all the opposition press has been doing in Bolivia is highlighting cases of government corruption. No mention about the racism or support for illegal separatists, or revisionist histories about the Pando Massacre or the innocent chats Ruben Costas enjoyed with then US ambassador Goldberg. All those squeaky-clean reporters have have doing is fighting the good fight against graft.

But the name of the journalist caught my eye, John Enders. It rang a bell so I Googled it. It turns out it rang a bell for a different reason (another John Enders was involved with developing the polio vaccine), but I did chance upon our John Enders' sparse little blog. In it we find out just how little he knows about Bolivia when he opines:

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

In Bolivia, socialist Evo Morales is a smart fellow and, like most Latin American radicals, doesn’t necessarily believe all of his own rhetoric. He is caught between those who want to return the country to the statist ways of the 1950s and those eastern Bolivia business interests who seek to create a capitalist mecca. Evo already has learned he cannot dictate radical change to his people without widespread and violent opposition. Washington should give him limited support for social reforms, continue to maintain contacts with the opposition and wait for a more moderate, transitional figure in Bolivia to surface as Morales’ successor.

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

Say whaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaat? Let's do a bit of deconstruction on his views about Bolivia and Evo:

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

In Bolivia, socialist Evo Morales is a smart fellow

Well, yes he is

and, like most Latin American radicals, doesn’t necessarily believe all of his own rhetoric.

Got some proof of that, John? I'd say he's come to power calling the same tune all the way and has kept his promises, too. What makes you think Evo says one thing and believes another? An example, please.

He is caught between those who want to return the country to the statist ways of the 1950s

Errr, no. He has the democratic majority vote support of people who are fed up with being ripped off by big business. We're talking about the country that made collecting rainwater illegal to make sure Bechtel's concession on the privatized water supply got maximum bang-per-buck. We're talking about the country that has put eight point five billion dollars in its currency reserves since nationalizing the oil&gas industry. Previously that cash just left the country in its abject poverty. The Morales government's "statist ways" include giving an old age pension to its senior citizens for the first time ever. Get that? EVER.

.........and those eastern Bolivia business interests who seek to create a capitalist mecca.

ROFL! Create a capitalist mecca? OH MY GOD! Don't you mean "create a new Kosovo"? The eastern Bolivians of which you speak have majority control over one city, not a whole region. They are racist, fascist, nazi-worshipping thugs that use indigenous populations as slave labour (that's not my opinion, that's The United Nations' opinion). That your idea of capitalism around Oregon way, John?

Evo already has learned he cannot dictate radical change to his people without widespread and violent opposition.

Evo has learned that to finally reach a level of emancipation for ALL Bolivians, the 10% of people that have hoarded 90% of the pie for generations kick and scream. As for "widespread", you make it sound like all the country hates his reforms. Errr....check every single national vote again, Johnnyboy.

Washington should give him limited support for social reforms, continue to maintain contacts with the opposition and wait for a more moderate, transitional figure in Bolivia to surface as Morales’ successor.

...and why the devil should they do that, Enders? Come on, why not elaborate on why the USA should keep its nose stuck in other country's affairs?

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

Enders' journalism and opinions, after "30 years of covering Latin America", show the insight of a fruitfly. And thus, John, you receive this week's coveted award. Enjoy it, dumbass:

That Sinking Feeling

Let's find out if they can take a joke, shall we?

These last few days I've been contacted several times by a dude at SeekingAlpha, cos what they want to do is, with my permission of course, to slurp my feed and automatically put my posts up on their site. It's supposed to be an honour. Uff.

• I ignored the first mail, but they couldn't take a hint

• I sent a terse one-liner as a reply to the second mail, which earned me a reply I ignored again (don't worry mother, I didn't use any bad words).

• I got another mail yesterday morning (they don't give up easily) asking me to think it over. This is why I'm posting here.

People that have read this humble corner of cyberspace for a while should know by now what I think about SinkingAlpha; it's kinda ok for big picture stuff, the ConfCall transcript service is very good but the metals, mining, gold section (or sections?) totally suck and are best used as a contrary indicators (e.g. too many bullish posts from the dumbasses and you sell like yesterday, or abject depression amongst the tinfoilhats = pick a few shares up). The tech corner might be good, as might the banking articles but I wouldn't have the first clue. Not my scene.

So anyway, they want me to be "a partner" with them. Well great, whoopdedoo. The only difference is that if I agreed to their offer, instead of submitting manually they'd just read my feed, decide if they like this-or-that article and bang!, up it goes on their site. So for the record my issues about contributing to SinkingAlpha are varied:

1) You're providing your original content for free. They don't pay, not a bean. What they offer you (apart from some books I'd never read and free tickets to conferences I'd never attend anyway) is that vague concept of "exposure". Because they get 84 quadsquillion eyeballs per day and this humble corner gets a few thousand I get to be famous and stuff. But I fail to see why somebody who reads my story over there would click through to this blog to read it again.......but hey, that's me, y'know. Meanwhile they add value to their own pockets via advertising (although they swear they're making an overall loss) and asset appreciation (one day they'll sell the site and go live in the tropics and sip margaritas all day or summink). I get the fun of watching how badly I do against Peter Schiff on their popularity leaderboard....all very exciting and competitive, I'm sure.

2) They make up their own title to put on your article. When I used to contribute there (stopped ages ago) that would really get on my nerves. It's like "my script is good enough for them but my title sucks? WTF?". They also demand editorial control. PAY ME DUDES! Then I'm an employee and you have the right to boss me around...until then I'm this "partner" who'd get a real rump end of the partnership.

3) The neighbours are crappy. The quality of articles on offer at the place most of my stuff would land (i.e. the mining posts, as I doubt they'd care about Lugo's latest lovechild or Evo's police forces putting holes in Irishmen) is mediocre. For every one good one (eg Gary throws 'em a bone sometimes, as does Cam Hui who I enjoy reading) there are three dozen articles that seem to be written by undergrads who've read up on the concept of fiat currency then landed on the GATA site and think they've discovered the Holy Grail or something. Either that or some dude who promotes company X or company Y for a living (i.e. gets paid by them) will hammer the same stocks at you month after month after month.

4) etc

So when the SinkingAlpha dude couldn't take the hint and wrote me again yesterday asking if I'd thought further about their offer, I sent him a longer reply. Here it is reprinted in full below (with the spelling and grammar brushed up a bit and one or two words added to make the context clear). Any further questions on SinkingAlpha?

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

Dear XXXX

I'd like you to know where I'm coming from here, so this might ramble a little.

The basic point i'm trying to make is that i feel, rightly or wrongly, that a partnership (or whatever you'd like to call it, it's just a label) with seekingalpha will certainly favour you guys more than I. But this is only part of the problem that i see, because if i think like this then many others will think the same way, too.

I'm really not a high'n'mighty arrogant type (despite the façade :-). Not trying to tell you what to do. Not trying to impose my will or my viewpoint on you guys. However, what i do see in the gold , metals and mining articles of seekingalpha (the part i'd imagine ending up more often than not if a contributor) are boring, thin and intellectually unstimulating articles that don't do much more than either a) preach to the goldbug choir or b) use polemic against the goldbug viewpoint to start an argument.

It's bullshit. Maybe one in 30 articles there are worth my time...and i just can't be bothered to wade through the crud to find the goodstuff when i can visit/RSS the blog of Cam Hui, Gary Tanashian etc directly and get their smarter brains condensed on one page of a dozen articles.

So why is there so much mediocrity on SeekingAlpha (in my view of course...at this point i'd expect you to defend your publication and then we can play batball with the theme all morning---ho hum)? I think it's because better quality bloggers don't want to dilute themselves for very little or no return while adding free content to your site. Or in other words, there's a problem with your business model....in my opinion.

I don't want to be lumped in with the crowd that appears in SeekingAlpha metals/mining right now. It's not just a question of money. I'd much prefer to build value (both financial and energetic) separately via my own blog and get 100 readers a day than get 100,000 or whatever-it-is eyeballs on the article that then read moronic comments underneath. SeekingAlpha metals&mining used to be much better than it is, but is being dragged down by the lowest common denominators of the Marc Courtneys of this world who'll write any old crap as a pure ego trip (sold FCX at U$18 late last year and told your audience that he was lucky cos it sunk to $17 the next day.....classic stuff, dude..he nailed the bottom). I don't want to read self-promoters like Mike Niehuser telling me about Minefinders and Novagold and Minefinders and Novagold and Minefinders and freaking Novagold ad infinitum.

To sum up, i think you need to attract decent contributors (and yes, i count myself in that pile, but i know my place and that's really way down on the long list of quality possibles) and more importantly keep them. This is a set of people that respond to capitalist button-pushing, not altruistic and vague offers of "exposure". I think you guys need to re-think the model else face a serious problem down the line. Try offering something far more solid than tickets to NYC conferences for people that live hundreds or thousands of miles away from WallSt. It's not my problem...repeat not my problem... that you're running at a loss. Your model is build, build, build then sell to a big boy and that's fine by me. Good luck to you, seriously. But WTF does that have to do with me and others if you hoard the pie for yourselves?

My, you guys take me back to the web 1.0 and what Patagon dot com did to its non shareholding staff the day it sold out to Banco Santander! There was nothing offered and nothing given to the somewhat naive experts that spent hours building the finest financial bullboard forum in the Spanish language...the forum that accounted for 90% of the site's traffic. Then when the naives woke up and saw the site owners get a multimillion dollar payday they went and said "where's mine?...i built this for you" but it was too late. Not even a crumb offered. Why don't you do some DD and find out what happened to patagon dot com afterwards? I guarantee that any potential buyer of Seekingalpha will know that story and a dozen others like it backwards by now.

Bottom line: I and many others will not accept your current terms. Quality financial bloggers that accept them will, in my opinion, quickly become disenchanted. Meanwhile very little of the content supplied by current contributors is worth reading (talking about the mining/metals sectors and talking in my opinion...i don't feel like arguing the point because you won't change my mind on that...let's just take it that you disagree and be done). I suggest you re-think you model before it's too late.

Eat my shorts, Canada

The top Canadian short positions as at April 30th. Thank you reader BF for the headsup.

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

Short positions outstanding at Apr. 30/09 (with changes from Apr. 15/09).
Largest Short Positions
Security	Ticker	Total Short	Change
Teck Resources	TCK.B	30907028	-1130592
New Gold	NGD	18332450	2929019
Eldorado Gold	ELD	17111120	30392
Ivanhoe Mines	IVN	15783677	615801
Kinross Gold	K	14581462	-1976018
Red Back Mining	RBI	13137941	-383640
Lundin Mining	LUN	12971093	-2821133
Thompson Creek Metals	TCM	12107626	1716210
Mercator Minerals	ML	8114369	6441664
Sherritt International	S	7948535	-2632410
Osisko Mining	OSK	7791480	-655745
Uranium One	UUU	7763558	-518240
FNX Mining	FNX	5792100	-636781
Agnico-Eagle Mines	AEM	5420162	177736
Silver Wheaton	SLW	4514178	241178
Largest Increase in Short Position
Security	Ticker	Total Short	Change
Mercator Minerals	ML	8114369	6441664
New Gold	NGD	18332450	2929019
Anvil Mining	AVM	2885600	2705347
Capstone Mining	CS	2522166	2359757
Thompson Creek Metals	TCM	12107626	1716210
Largest Decrease in Short Position
Security	Ticker	Total Short	Change
Equinox Minerals	EQN	1973347	-5704853
Lundin Mining	LUN	12971093	-2821133
Sherritt International	S	7948535	-2632410
Central Fund Of Canada	CEF.A	12437	-2222596
Quadra Mining	QUA	835170	-2118314
TSX Venture Short Positions
Short positions outstanding at Apr. 30/09 (with changes from Apr. 15/09).
Largest Short Positions
Security	Ticker	Total Short	Change
Romarco Minerals	R	1550000	48500
San Gold	SGR	1328400	453800
Alturas Minerals	ALT	733333	0
Verena Minerals	VML	536500	536500
Iberian Minerals	IZN	535500	535500
Andean American Mining	AAG	467686	467686
Alix Resources	AIX	350000	350000
Azteca Gold	AZG	300000	290000
New Guinea Gold	NGG	225000	25000
Whitemud Resources	WMK	215932	-620
Forum Uranium	FDC	192000	192000
Columbus Gold	CGT	186500	186500
Evolving Gold	EVG	184500	184500
Constellation Copper	CCU.H	170000	0
Metanor Resources	MTO	160641	-222
Largest Increase in Short Position
Security	Ticker	Total Short	Change
Verena Minerals	VML	536500	536500
Iberian Minerals	IZN	535500	535500
Andean American Mining	AAG	467686	467686
San Gold	SGR	1328400	453800
Alix Resources	AIX	350000	350000
Largest Decrease in Short Position
Security	Ticker	Total Short	Change
Hawthorne Gold	HGC	91900	-609000
Full Metal Minerals	FMM	66000	-497500
African Gold Group	AGG	0	-473814
Gold Wheaton Gold Corp.	GLW.WT	0	-430000
NWT Uranium	NWT	1000	-242000

US Banks

A very short thought about this non-LatAm subject.

In the years 1999 and 2000 I was, of course, nine or ten years younger, nine or ten years less smart ('more stupid' is better, thinking again) etc. At the time I just couldn't make out the NASDAQ mania and stayed on the sidelines as it went up and up and up and up. Just sat and watched as my friends told me I was mad not to join in the fun.

And let's be clear here: I'm not one of those people who got badly burned by the crash, but I'm not one of those legendaries who (say they) rode the wave and sold just weeks before the top, either. I simply refused to go there and thus won nothing and lost nothing. I didn't go there for two reasons: Firstly I didn't understand the math involved...I couldn't see the value, the "fundamentals" (yes, i am boring..no need to write in on that point). Secondly there was an enormously vacuous and strange feeling in the pit of my stomach about it. It "just felt wrong" on some bestial or visceral level. Now I know very well I'm no George Soros, but he makes his big trading decisions (or so it's said) by gauging a pain he gets in his lower back. I can relate to that.

I haven't felt that feeling about things financial until today, but as I watched shares in Bank of America rise on the news it needs a $35Bn bailout it was deja vu all over again. There is no way I can possibly buy this market and I don't care if the Dow ends the year, the month or even the week at 10,000, either. I'm going to stay largely on the sidelines, dip my toe in occasionally, play my short-term trades, hold my lump of gold and be a whussy coward bear. I'll listen to others scream "BULL!" and tell me about their great week in the markets and ridicule me for staying majority in cash. And I'll sleep very well. Amen.

Newsy things

Question: If thirty-five billion dollars fell in the middle of the forest, would anyone hear one hand clapping? (Answer: There is no spoon).

Report on Kinross results and Tye Burt's comments about Chile being "key". Photos of Yale Simpson drooling and raving on request.

Report on Yamana (AUY) earnings. They were ok..nothing special...not bad.

Peru FinMin and dumbass Carranza tells world that Peru has touched bottom and will bounce back in 2q09. Fool me eight times, shame on my grandchildren?

Bolivia: the UN says that the reports of slave labour (it's called 'forced work' these days) on Santa Cruz farms are true.

Charts of the day are.....

....Peru's mining exports in the first quarter of 2009, the top eight exporting companies.

The above chart shows the dollar values per company. Yanacocha (NEM, BVN, bit of IFC) is number one, with Antamina (Xstrata, BHP, Teck, Mistubishi) 2nd, Southern (PCU) 3rd and Misquichilca (ABX) snapping at their heels. But if we look below at the Year Over Year change in exports.......

...the true nastiness is clear to see. Note Yanacocha (dedicated gold mine) has held up its export revenues quite well, but the base metals players (Antamina, Cerro Verde, Southern, Doe Run) have been whacked around the head with a thick piece of wood.

Gold Hawk Resources (CGK.v): There's light at the end of the tunnel (literally)

So here's the chart for Gold Hawk Resources (CGK.v) in 2009 to date...

.....and if you were smart or brave enough to get some CGK.v at between 1c and 2c in January (or even at 3c just five weeks ago) the 5.5c to 6c prices being printed these last few days have made for a very nice percentage gain. But what's news at CGK.v and its Coricancha mine?

Well, news is that the government of Peru has finally got its pulgarcito pulled out from its colita and has made progress on the relief tunnel need to be dug into the Tamboraque hill in order to relieve the water damage threat to the now infamous tailings pond. And the good news is that there are even pictures to show the progress. Click this link and you'll see a very nicely put together montage of the work in progress which has made its way 36m into the hillside. The total length needed to be tunneled is 180m and the work is now on schedule to be finished in 3q09 (probably October). But don't take it from me; click the link and see for yourself (once you get there, you need to click the first page again to set the montage rolling).

All in all I'm happy to see things moving at CGK.v and the share price crawl back to something that begins to resemble decency. As for the Peruvian Gov't, once again it has proved that its bureaucracy is a disaster (recall it took a full year to get started on the essential work), but once the ball is rolling the country knows how to do the mining thing.

Related Posts on Gold Hawk here

Trading Post (toppy Tuesday edition)

The Gold/Silver ratio stands at 67X right here right now. Remember that gold/silver ratio chart from Sunday? Meanwhile, for the first time in a long time we actually had a decent, solid and positive looking macro number from LatAm this morning. Chile's IMACEC GDP estimate for April (one of the more reliable statistics out there) dropped 0.7% YoY, where economists* were expecting a 1.6% or 1.7% drop. This will likely reflect well on Peru GDP numbers that come out later this month. The possible wrinkle in the macro numbers is the economic decline felt by Chile this time last year due to its drought and subsequent energy crisis. This might be skewing Chile's numbers to make them look better than they actually are.

Vena Resouces (VEM.to) up 3.5% at $0.29. Of the 65,000 shares traded in Vena Resources today, only 3,000 have changed hands in Canada. This thing continues to be accumulated quietly by Peru's pension funds. You have been warned.

Troy Resources up a penny at $1.15 and now showing a correct arbitrage to the Aussie stock. I liked the insider purchase of 10k shares filed today as these guys don't do things for show.

Cardero Resources (CDU.to) up 4.3% at C$1.45 on middling volume and still bubbling under without catching fire. Are you watching this thing, too? LOL...me too. I own a trading chunk of CDY and have a short-term trading timescale in mind. DYODD (or subscribe to The IKN Weekly:-)

Nadagold (NG) down a penny at U$2.82 and it's all I can do to stop myself from trying to short this dog. Very tempting, but I don't want to tie up any more cash right now. Still very tempting.

Creditcorp (BAP) up 1.8% at $53.28. This Peru bank is a good way to play macroeconomic strength in Twobreakfastland (even if it only turns out to be temporary). If, as I now suspect, the Peru April GDP number comes in solidly (around 15th May approx) this might be an option as a trade. DYODD and I don't own...just a suggestion for those with the penchant. Here's the 1 year chart.


*aka dumbasses in suits

Cameco (CCJ) and U: A smart call from Toby Shute

Toby Shute is an energy sector analyst (who crosses over into the world of mining from time to time) working over at the financial supermarket website Motley Fool.

Now I'm no fan of MotleyFool, but there are exceptions to every rule so I've also come to the conclusion that Toby Shute is well worth following (and I have a Google alert with his name as keywords because of that). So today he's written a short but incisive note on Cameco (CCJ) and uranium in general. Here's the link and imho it's well worth your time. Here's a short extract, and while you're reading the full text it's worth considering the wider implications of Cameco's recent buying spree on the whole sector.

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

A big reason for the cost jump is that Cameco was very busy purchasing uranium at near-spot prices during the quarter. These costs are dramatically higher than Cameco's cost of production, so margins took a real hit. What could justify such behavior?

Well, think about what happens in the oil industry when near-term prices are far below those attainable via futures contracts. In such a situation, called "contango," oil majors like ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP) and Royal Dutch Shell (NYSE: RDS-A) (NYSE: RDS-B) make easy money by selling oil at higher forward prices and sitting on tankerloads of it in the meantime.

CONTINUES HERE

China's stimulus program going up in smoke

From this morning's "Canaccord Morning Coffee" daily (thank you reader 'M') comes the inside story of how China is trying to stimulate consumption, healthcare GDP and speed up population turnover.

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

Officials in a county in central China have been told to smoke nearly a quarter of a million packs of locally made cigarettes annually or risk being fined, state media reports. The Gong’an county government in Hubei province has ordered its staff to puff their way through 230,000 packs of Hubei produced cigarette brands a year, the Global Times said.

Departments that fail to meet their targets will be fined, the report said. “The regulation will boost the local economy via the cigarette tax,” said Chen Nianzu, a member of the Gong’an cigarette market supervision team, according to the paper. The measure could also be a ploy to aid local cigarette brands such as Huanghelou, which are under severe pressure from competitors in neighbouring Hunan province, according to the paper.

Kroll on LatAm mining risk

It's now six weeks old but that's a very minor detail. If you are in any way interested in the LatAm mining sector you need to read the Kroll take on country risk in the major mining areas in the region. Here's the link to autodownload the PDF.

Colombia: Uribe taught them all they know

Stallion, Distaff, Colts

How are those cries of "dictator-prez-for-life!" coming on about Alvaro Uribe in your media of choice up there? Would corrupt family business deals help tip the balance, perchance?

It would have been easy for you guys up there to miss this story, as the only English language report to be found IN THE WHOLE, WIDE WORLD is this one from the recommended Colombia Reports. Isn't it strange how the English-speaking media has completely ignored this big story getting wide coverage in Colombia? Nothing in the WaPo, the Miami Herald, CNN or Pajamas TV with Joe the Plumber. Not even in the "all that's fit to print" New York Times, though considering the NYT's representative down here is more interested in FruityRumPunch and PunchingRumFruities than actually doing any reporting, the lack of NYT coverage isn't that surprising. But I digress.

"What story, Otto?" I hear you cry. Pretty simple really. Two young whippersnappers by the names of Tomás and Jerónimo bought a nice tract of rural land on the cheap in 2006. Then suddenly, the land got re-evaluated by Colombian gov't people and shot up in value because it was deemed the new spot for a tax-free industrial zone project. The original price was 33 million pesos, but after two high ranking gov't officials that needed clearance from the President himself to announce the deal had finished, the land was suddenly valued at 3 Billion Pesos (that's around U$1.3m), a near 100-fold rise in two years.

Nice work if you can get it, of course, but getting that kind of work needs connections. And it just so happens that Tomás and Jerónimo are the two sons of President Alvaro Uribe. Strange that, innit?

I kid you not, folks. There really is a magazine in Colombia called "Jet-Set".
Front cover from last year featuring Tomás and bride-to-be (thin, pretty)

In fact, as the original report linked here and from Semana magazine points out at the end of the article, these two Uribe boys have been mightily lucky in business since setting up their real estate vehicle company "Ecoeficiencia" in 2003. Back then the company net worth was 10m Pesos (U$4,400 at today's exchange rate). After doing 'a bit o dis an' a bit o dat' for six years, the company already boasts 1Bn Pesos (U$440,000) just in paid-up capital.

Well, corrupt land deals are better than being a politician named by US intelligence as a narco and close friend of Pablo Escobar, I suppose.......

Meanwhile, in the quiet provincial border towns of Colombia....

...they've got no space left in the morgues.

In Caucasia, Antioquia, medics are complaining about the heavier that normal workload of autopsies. In the period Jan 1st to April 25th 2008 there were "just" 46 murders in an otherwise sleepy old town, but this year it's got up to a pesky 102 in the same lapse. "Here we only have one autopsy table and two old storage compartments, and on average we're doing two autopsies a day", said the doc.

As for the atmosphere around the place, here are a few quotes:

"The rumours run from neighbourhood to neighbourhood, but nobody knows anything when they're asked about a crime."

"They say that two men were in a hairdressers. On hearing a woman talk about the conflict they made the hair stylist shave her bald and remove her eyebrows, and then gave her 24 hours to leave Caucasia."

"The assassins rent one house in every neighbourhood, which allow them to hide quickly once they commit a crime and we (the police) cannot enter without a search warrant."

"The people fear for their lives, because those committing the homicides are locals, young men that were born and raised here."

So, gentle reader and lover of freedom, how does the situation in Caucasia compare to the US-backed shouts of "oppression!" that comes from the mouths of theVenezuelans with painted hands as they march noisily down streets tilting against windmills? The above is what real fear, real terror and real oppression are all about. When it's the genuine article, noise is replaced by a roaring silence and you rarely get to find out about it.

Chart of the day is.....

....quarterly results at Siderperu, the largest steelmaker in Peru. (and owned by Brazil's Gerdau (GGB)). The first quarter of 2008 is compared to the first quarter of 2009.

We saw in a recent Chart of the Day how bad Vale's iron ore production figures had been. This chart follow up the theme and shows steelmaking n Peru is going through a bad old patch, too.

But don't worry, cos Twobreakfasts said Peru is growing and you guys up there trust him. After all, whyever would he lie to you?

Colombia: Unless your media is two-faced up there...

Puppet jokes, anyone?

.........you'll be hearing howls of anti-democratic, thug, dictator etc thrown at Alvaro Uribe (da dude dat got da medal from da Bush last year) as he re-writes Colombia's constitution and lets himself run for a third time as Prez (Spanish language link).

So get ready for the cacophony of boos, hisses and general shouts of "oh you nasty man" from Fox, the WSJ, WaPo, all the McClatchy tribe (headed up by the Miami Herald).

Or maybe not.

Mojitos served.

UPDATE: Borev got the story, too. He's even found a link to an English language report that I can't be bothered to link here, so go find it over there.