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8/8/09

Brent Cook interviewed

Here the link to an interview that website Gold Report has just done with Brent Cook, geologist and newsletter writer on mining and all things concerned. A good read for all you mineheads out there.

Nice to see Fortuna Silver (FVI.v) getting a positive mention.

The South America Swine Flu Sweepstakes Update Aug 8

Here's the updated chart, as at August 8th:


The big news is from Argentina this week, as the health ministry said there were 337 confirmed deaths from AH1N1, but another 400 deaths are suspected as being due to swine flu so that number is going to rocket and put Argentina waAAAay out in front of the world league table. Also...listen up, the ministry said there had been 762,711 cases of flu in the country since the outbreak started, with 93% of cases being AH1N1. Yes, that does say seven hundred and sixty-two thousand seven hundred and eleven. That's around 700,000 cases of swine flu in Argentina and 1.75% of the entire population...that's a lot.

Another snippet from the Argentine health ministry this week said 53% of death had no previous health complication (no obesity, no high blood pressure, no chronic illnesses etc), so that's another mythbuster with three months and counting for the northern hemisphere winter.

Meanwhile, deaths in Brazil have shot past Chile's total and into second place at 132, mostly reported in the cities of San Pablo (50), Paraná (25) and Rio de Janeiro (19).

Chile's fatalities break into three figures, with 12,030 registered cases.

8/7/09

The Friday OT: Harvest Moon by Cassandra Wilson

A song that reminds happily married people just how fortunate we are.



For sure it was written and first performed by Neil Young, but this live cover version from the blissful voice of Cassandra Wilson is just so beautiful it had to be my choice.

When we were strangers I watched you from afar
When we were lovers I loved you with all my heart.

But now its gettin late and the moon is climbin high
I want to celebrate see it shinin in your eye.

Because Im still in love with you I want to see you dance again
Because Im still in love with you on this harvest moon.

Trading Post (kill the wabbit edition)


So Wagner's 'Ride of the Valkyries' came on the radio this morning and within a few seconds the residents of Chez Otto were doing Elmer Fudd's version. Totally rocked. Now listening to Red Hot Chili Peppers and John Frusciante totally shredding it on 'Turn It Again'. Oh my, tis good.

Chariot Resources (CHD.to) up 10% at $0.33 on great volumes again. Really happy about the way this thing has picked up and run.

ECU Silver (ECU.to) down 1.8% at $0.54; hahahahaahhahahahaahhaaaaaaa!!! And y'know what longs? There's worse to come. It's called "the quarterly report" and it's coming to depress you soon, suckaz.

MAG Silver (MVG) (MAG.to) down 2% at U$4.81 and news from the board of directors is that they've started selling their stock again. What's the excuse this time, Jones? More tax to pay? This dog has a great asset for sure but the wrong, wrong, wrong people on top of it. Up a pathetic 6% since Fresnillo offered their offer at the bottom of the market. Dead money, nuff said.

Gleichen Resources (GRL.v) up 63.6% at 90c and there's probably more to come on Monday after watching the action closely this morning.

Troy Resources (TRY.to) (TRY.ax) up 5.5% at C$1.52 and volumes have been nothing short of excellent in Australia since the D&D presentation. Oh you know it's true, blue.

US employment figures: Jack Crooks of Black Swan Capital said it best this morning

Here's the link (good free daily letter, by the way. Sign yourself up) and here's the quote (that was written before the number hit, btw):
I ask now: will the jobs report really tell us anything? I mean, will it tell us anything besides the fact that fewer jobs were lost this month than last month? It’s like telling a car accident victim before the paramedics arrive that he lost less blood this last minute than he did the previous minute.

Maple Energy (MPLE.L): When a country's pension funds rely on exploration-stage oil companies

This is the week's chart for Maple Energy, a small O&G play based in London and ramping up operations in Peru. It has a small production footprint but is mainly valued on its exploration upside...until now, that is.


On Thursday it announced that its drilling program had hit nothing special and has lucked out. The price of the stock dropped like a stone, of course. Hey, this is the way with small O&G companies...if they don't deliver the goods they dive hard. It's always been this way and it always will be.

But the funniest thing about this is the stupidity of the people that run the Peruvian stock exchange the BVL. When MPLE.L decided to quote on the local bourse last year the idiot suits were so pleased they finally had an O&G listing to play with that they made it a major part of their headline indices. Right now MPLE is a tad under 7% of the whole General Index (IGBVL) and as such is a major part of the whole country's pension funds, as the money tucked away by prudent Peruvians was being gambled (no other word for it) on a tiny oil explorer as part of the stock market indexing of funds....with official approval by the experts that run the exchange!

So when the pension contributors get their statement next month and ask "hey, where's my money gone, dude?" the answer will be "oh....err...this tiny oil company missed on three drills and we lost the whole country 14 squillion because of it". I'd call them dumbasses but that would be an insult to people I've called dumbass in the past, even the delicate flowers of the Motley Dumbass. True financial stupidity for all to see, courtesy of the arrogant suits that mismanage Peru.

There will be more profound talk on MPLE.L in this weekend's IKN Weekly, as subscribers know it's not the first time this company has been mentioned in the Weekly.

testimonial


I get quite a few of this type of mail and have never gone the way of the big pump by using them, but today I'm going to give in to the egomassage temptation. So by way of some shameless promo here's a nice mail I received yesterday from an IKN Weekly subscriber. Very kind of you "TL". For a bit of context, the banter about Pediment has run between "TL" and myself on a couple of occasions and we also both highly rate the opinions of Mickey Fulp (go sign on to his freebie now). We also bought Troy Resources (TRY.to) (TRY.ax) at virtually the same time back in January and at virtually the same price....about 85% lower than it is today.

The rest was totally unsolicited testimonial and very gratifying to read at this end. If you'd like to read some more unsolicited testimonials, drop me a line and I'll organize my inbox and send a few over (personal info cut out of course, but all kosher).

".....(about) PEZ.to, I have been scratching my head lately about why it's still so cheap (realizing of course that it carries some risks, though nothing unusual). It seems to be one of the few gold stocks following the usual summer doldrums. Is it all just the lack of news flow?

Anyway, Monday and Tuesday I found myself buying, ended up tripling my position. Hopefully that won't bite me in the ass but it just seems so cheap, and the Mexican peso seems to be one of the few currencies which won't likely get too stronger against the dollar (so their costs shouldn't escalate too much on currency alone). You probably saw that Mickey Fulp wrote up PEZ.to recently, which carried some weight with me. As you know, in many of my investments I evaluate to a large extent using the opinions of others (maybe I'm better at assessing people than small miners) so a straight shooter like Mickey is good to "invest with."

Speaking of good to invest with, how about that TRY.ax? I have been holding, it might even be my largest position at this point. What can I say but MIL GRACIAS. It has so much going for it and no big weaknesses. With its recent spate of great news and rising price daily, I won't even cry over the fact that, having massively overweighted it earlier (against all diversification rules), I rotated some from TRY.ax into other miners just prior to the latest ramp. I fear my timing is as bad as you claim yours to be.

Still loving the letter, always chock full of good info and analysis. And you must realize it's far more creative than the usual investment letter / report standard, which makes it more valuable and highly readable besides.

Bagua: Lambs to sacrifice

This note doesn't need much comment from me. Basically the families of the police that died at Bagua are bringing criminal charges against the government officials that sent them in "like lambs to sacrifice" and want them locked up for as much as eight years to teach them a lesson. Y'see, there are smart people who can see through the lies inside the country, too. Read the first part then click through for the rest (and yet again applause for Andrew Whalen of AP, head and shoulders above the normal newswire dross for the umpteenth time).

LIMA, Peru — Relatives of police officers killed during a government crackdown on Amazon Indian protesters are seeking criminal charges against Peru's former interior minister and three police chiefs, a lawyer said Thursday.

Ten civilians and 23 policemen were killed June 5 when a small, heavily armed troop of officers cleared a highway blockade where nearly 5,000 Indians were protesting development on their ancestral lands. Another officer is missing and presumed dead, while 200 civilians were wounded, 82 by gunshot, according to Peru's ombudsman's office.

Amnesty International has called the government's investigations into the violence imbalanced, because no police have been implicated or arrested for their roles in the violence. More than 100 Indians are charged with crimes including murder and sedition.

Families of the dead police officers are now questioning the bloodshed as well.

We "are asking for justice and for the trial of those truly responsible on the highest political level," said Flor Montenegro, widow of one of the killed officers, Capt. Miguel Montenegro.

The lawyer for the families, Antonio Salazar, told The Associated Press that he is filing a criminal complaint with the state attorney's office against former Interior Minister Mercedes Cabanillas, former national police chief Gen. Jose Sanchez and two regional police chiefs. The families are asking that they be charged with negligence and abuse of authority, crimes that carry up to eight years prison time in Peru.

The government says the Indians instigated the violence. Indian protest leaders say police opened fire on the protesters, who then fought to take guns from the police.

Montenegro said at a news conference that political leaders should have found a peaceful solution to the protests, which began in early April.

"They had more than enough time to resolve it in two months but they did not have the tact or the intelligence," she said.

Rony Garcia, brother of deceased police officer Jose Alberto Guzman, also criticized Peru's leadership for ordering police to confront the Indians. "They sent them like lambs to sacrifice," he said.

CONTINUES HERE


Chart of the day is....

....the centre of the battle itself. Crude oil, 60 minute candles.
Volatility? What volatility?

8/6/09

Petaquilla (PTQ.to) recommended closed by Panama's Ombudsman

The Office of the Ombudsman in Panama (Defensoría del Pueblo) today published the findings of its investigation in LatAm's worst mining company, Petaquilla Minerals (PTQ.to), currently permanently laying waste to the environment of first growth rain forest around its operations under the stewardship of its CEO, convicted drug runner Richard Fifer.

The report published by the Ombudsman can be found on this link right here (Spanish only) so link-thru and knock yourselves out, but in a nutshell it takes into account 23 (yep twenty-three) different considerations of illegal or reportedly illegal activity by PTQ.to and makes seven resolutions, the main three of which being directly significant to PTQ.to are:
1) The Ombudsman states that Petaquilla Minerals has violated Panama's constitutional right of a healthy environment by proven acts of pollution, non-compliance with laws and abuses of rights (I mean hey...why mess with breaking a piffly law or two when you can go the whole hog and violate the country's constitution, right?).

2) The Ombudsman recommends to the Ministry of Commerce (MICI) and the Ministry of the Environment (ANAM) that they take steps via some precise and existing laws to stop all activity at the mine immediately.

3) The Ombudsman recommends to the Ministry of Commerce (MICI) that it moves to rescind the contract of Petaquilla Minerals under the law of "Substantial Non-Compliance" that's part of the Pananamian statute.
The ministries now have 30 days to get their acts together and move on this. It explains why the company says it's finally commissioning its mine but the stock has done nothing despite the BS pump PRs and ridiculous cheerleading from corrupted Panamanian websites that try to part expats from their retirement lump sums (and are seemingly unwilling to run today's news on Fifer's craphole...what a surprise, Don Wanker).

The sooner this thing is shut down forever, the better it will be for the world. PTQ.to is a prime example of the kind of rancid operation that gives the whole world of mining a bad name and gets dirt thrown at the good as well as the bad. Meanwhile, the sycophantic Canadian mining scene just keeps it mouth tightly shut about the stock and the scumbags running the company; it's about time you learned how to weed out your own, boyz.

Solidarity with Censored Blog 'Que Te Pasa Clarín'

News from Argentina is not good for freedom of speech. The blog 'Que Te Pasa Clarín' (QTPC), set up by an ex-employee of the country's largest media group, has been gagged by court order after Clarín applied for an injunction against its publication. Right now all you see if you go to the QTPC front page is a "sorry, we've been taken off the air" message from the blog authors.

It's worth pointing out at this point the Clarín is Anti-Kirchner and the blogger behind QTPC is highly critical of the newspaper and its editorial line. Also, from when the blog kicked off in early April to today it has been severely critical of Clarín and often publishing embarrassing secrets that Clarín simply didn't want out in the public field. You can still access all 140 posts at QTPC at this Google search link, but instead of going to the page you need to click the 'CACHED' button of each entry. Those of you who do Spanish can find out all the juicy details that the shits at Clarín wanted to suppress.

IKN voices its total support for the blog QTPC and roundly condemns the bullyboy actions of Grupo Clarín, an enormous, monopolistic, publicly quoted media company (GCLA on the London Stock Exchange) that would be the first to scream blue murder if it were the object of press restrictions itself.


UPDATE: The story I linked to above on the first link ("been gagged by court order") was a specific report in Argentina's 'Critica' daily, but now it seems the story has been pulled and the linkgoes to the website's home page...no report anywhere on the site. Looks like Clarin has managed to gag its rival, too. Wowsers, what fascists! Here's a report on the closure from a site in Spain.

Must see video on China's economy

Via deserved and necessary hat tip to Edward Harrison at Credit Writedowns and to reader MR for sending the link (gracias che) check out this video of Hugh Hendry surveying rows upon rows of empty Chinese high-rised buildings and more being constructed. Amazing, compulsive viewing and 100% necessary knowledge for investors.



Harrison asks in his post "Who is going to pay for all this stuff?". Well that's easy enough to answer; if your salary comes in US dollars have a look in the mirror.

Taking it like a man


In a world of fragile egos it's good to encounter somebody of gumption. Further to this morning's chart of the day that roasted Trevor Turnbull over his call on Troy Resources (TRY.to) (TRY.ax), your humble correspondent received a mail from the guy himself this afternoon. Instead of the normal whining and moaning that has been the norm from those sensitive flowers the equities analysts, Turnbull wrote and said "Well Done."

A refreshing change to see someone that can stand up and take it like a man. Trevor Turnbull, I salute you. Good form shown.

Lest We Forget


Harry Patch, "The Last Tommy" (the soldiers of World War 1) was today buried. Read these reports of the man and of the ceremony (from a true newspaper of record) that included pallbearers from England and Germany the same age as Harry when the war ended (all at Harry's specific request) and the church bells tolling 111 times, one for each year of his life. Here's an excerpt:

But there were other touches, too, that spoke of Mr Patch’s earnest belief that fighting can never be the right way to solve disputes. During the service a chorister sang the 1960s peace anthem, Where Have All The Flowers Gone: the order of service said that the song had been chosen by his grandson “to reflect Harry’s view of the futility of war”.

Equally symbolically, the coffin was escorted by six other pallbearers, including two soldiers from the German army. Dr Eckhard Wilhelm Lubkemeier, charge d’affaires of the German Embassy, who read a lesson from the Bible at the service, said: “We really appreciate the generous gesture on the part of Harry Patch because he explicitly wanted his former enemy to be represented at his funeral service.

“It is a great honour for us and we really appreciate the opportunity of being here and honouring a great man.”


We owe so much to Harry and all who were there, whether they came back or not and no matter what side they fought on. In a world that debases the word 'hero', there are still people that deserve the true weight of the epithet.


Lest we forget.


Strange Meeting (Wilfred Owen, 1893-1918)

It seemed that out of the battle I escaped
Down some profound dull tunnel, long since scooped
Through granites which Titanic wars had groined.
Yet also there encumbered sleepers groaned,
Too fast in thought or death to be bestirred.
Then, as I probed them, one sprang up, and stared
With piteous recognition in fixed eyes,
Lifting distressful hands as if to bless.
And by his smile, I knew that sullen hall;
With a thousand fears that vision's face was grained;
Yet no blood reached there from the upper ground,
And no guns thumped, or down the flues made moan.
"Strange, friend," I said, "Here is no cause to mourn."
"None," said the other, "Save the undone years,
The hopelessness. Whatever hope is yours,
Was my life also; I went hunting wild
After the wildest beauty in the world,
Which lies not calm in eyes, or braided hair,
But mocks the steady running of the hour,
And if it grieves, grieves richlier than here.
For by my glee might many men have laughed,
And of my weeping something has been left,
Which must die now. I mean the truth untold,
The pity of war, the pity war distilled.
Now men will go content with what we spoiled.
Or, discontent, boil bloody, and be spilled.
They will be swift with swiftness of the tigress,
None will break ranks, though nations trek from progress.
Courage was mine, and I had mystery;
Wisdom was mine, and I had mastery;
To miss the march of this retreating world
Into vain citadels that are not walled.
Then, when much blood had clogged their chariot-wheels
I would go up and wash them from sweet wells,
Even with truths that lie too deep for taint.
I would have poured my spirit without stint
But not through wounds; not on the cess of war.
Foreheads of men have bled where no wounds were.
I am the enemy you killed, my friend.
I knew you in this dark; for so you frowned
Yesterday through me as you jabbed and killed.
I parried; but my hands were loath and cold.
Let us sleep now . . ."


x

Those Peruvian intellectuals and powerbrokers


One of my regular cyberstops in the morning is 'El Comercio', Peru's mediocre and über pro-Twobreakfasts daily that is as close to a newspaper of record as the country gets. It really is a mediocre publication, sycophantic and spin-laden, but in the end it has to be taken in as part of the day.

El Comercio prides itself on being the serious newspaper, the one that all the bizpeeps and ABC1s read. So when I noticed the list of "the most read stories" today it made me laugh. Here's the copypaste, check out the page here

Las más leídas


These translate as

So these are the most popular stories in Peru this morning, folks. Three naked women from Hollywood, some story about soccer-hangers-on and the usual paranoid obsessions about Evo (probably cos the chattering classes and idiot schoolboy bloggers can't stand the fact that Bolivia is doing better than Peru). That's the quality of intellect that purports to running the Peruvian economic miracle, folks. The funniest thing is that these people take themselves seriously. We're laughing at you, dumbasses.

Minefinders (MFN) puts in a poor quarter

Back in April, your humble correspondent called MFN a speculative buy at U$6.94 and put a U$10.97 (+58%) target price on the stock, but also laid out a range of caveats in the NOBS report (that at around 40 of you bought at the time..thank you) that made it clear there was plenty risk involved.

Today the company reported its second quarter and the numbers are not good. Far from the "steady state gold and silver production at model rates" we were promised in the February 2009 company presentation, the cruel reality is a $552 per ounce cash cost, a full $255 higher than that "model rate" they talked about just six months ago. Also included in the report are a range of "it's not our fault" stuff and excuses that looks petty as a whole that just makes you go humph.


Since that mid-April "spec buy at 7" call the stock went to $9, went back to $7 and then moved back up to the recent $9-and-bits. All in all I'm cool with my original call on the stock but it's already back down under $9 this morning on the earnings report...quite right, too. All the pretty painting in the press release can't hide the fact that MFN have over-promised and under-delivered. I'll be looking in more detail at the stock in this weekend's IKN Weekly. DYODD, dude.

Disclosure: No position in MFN.

Chart of the day...

...tempts a little hubris, but WTH...the dude deserves what's coming anyway.

You have to wonder how those Scotia clients are feeling after taking Trevor Turnbull's advice and bailing...and missing a 37% move since their very own sales marked the bottom. I particularly liked the line Trev used in his June 26 Scotia note that (and I quote) "Troy is only expected to be a micro-producer with less than 70,000 oz over the next few years", when the facts show 50,000 flowing from Andorinhas, 30,000 from Sandstone and the new 60,000 oz (or so) mine at Casposo coming online in September 2010. Maybe Trev meant to write "next few months" and not years.

Trevor: Epic, epic fail. Just shows what happens when your analyst loves his qualifications more than actually doing some work. So Trevor Turnbull MBA MSc, for the obviously pisspoor research you did on Troy Resoures (TRY.to) (TRY.ax) and the amazingly bad timing of your 100% incorrect advice, you win this week's coveted award. Enjoy, dumbass.


Related link: Taking it like a man

8/5/09

The IKN Kaption Kompetition: Winnah Winnah Chikkin Dinnah

There were some great entries as usual for our caption competition yesterday (11 in total...you guys all rock) so here we go with the podium. In Brilliant Bronze Medal position comes Bina with her second shot:
Twobreakfasts: "Gringo military bases for him, cocaine kickbacks for me...life is good!"
El Narco: "You don't know the half of it, fat guy."

Superb Silver Medal
goes to Locojhon who caught the same drift as the winner and made me laugh:
TB--"So now that we've finished breakfast, what else shall we eat?"
AU--thinking--"What do you mean, WE? The SOB ate mine too."


But the winner made me howl when I saw it yesterday evening. Congratulations and Glorious Gold Medal (and a beer) go to reader 'MP' with this entry.

(click to enlarge)

Good stuff, people. Honourable mention to Amazilia for her knowledge of Peru innerpolitik and the lies told at the UN by Peruvian flunkeys.
Alan: "Asi de grande es la mentira que Pastor les dijo a la ONU"
Uribe: "espera no mas que te investigen, mis falsos positivos quedaran chiquitos"

Aha! Peru's Growth Miracle Explained

Aaaah, it all makes sense now. No wonder Peru says it's growing by XpointX% per year when the number of people that suffer from calorific insufficiency (an official measure that shows people don't have enough to eat) has risen from 29% to 32% in the last two years. All this growth is due to the APRA party's favourite source of funding! According to the head of the fight against drugs in Peru in this report from AFP (Translated)

Narcotrafficking a Twenty Two Billion Dollar Business in Peru, 17% of The Country GDP

Narcotrafficking in Peru generates profits of U$22Bn (17% of country GDP), an increase of between U$3Bn and U$4Bn in the last five years, the Peru anti-drug czar, Rómulo Pizarro said Wednesday.

This surge is due to the increase in consumption and demand pressure, most of all from the European market, said Pizarro, head of the National Commission for Development and Life Without Drugs (DEVIDA)

"Five years ago this figure was calculated at U$18Bn, that is to say that we're talking of an approximate increase of between U$3Bn and U$4Bn." CONTINUES HERE

Oh wow! English language media is starting to get the picture about Peru, too.

The WSJ (via DJNW) is running the story "Peru's Intergroup: No Signs Of Strong Economic Recovery" today and it starts like this:

LIMA (Dow Jones)--Peru's economic recovery will continue to be subdued, although a "mild" rebound is expected in the second half, Intergroup Financial Services Corp.'s (IFS.VL) chief financial officer said Wednesday.

"We are still not seeing strong signals of a recovery," said Jose Antonio Rosas in a conference call with analysts, adding that increased government spending will help boost growth.

Peru's gross domestic product rose close to 10% last year, while in the first five months of this year GDP has expanded by only 0.83%. CONTINUES HERE

For the record Intergroup is the holding company for Interbank, a pretty decent Peruvian high-street banking chain. So what this is is the start of a bit of reality, not much more. My eyes popped out on seeing the adjective "only" as regards Peru's GDP, cos it's the first time I've seen even a mildly derogatory comment about Peru's lop-sided, socially disgraceful "growth" in five years of MSM-watching. So suddenly the voice of English language mainstream media has changed from "Peru Economic Miracle" to "Peru flat for year", so what are they going to say when the next GDP figure comes out way, way negative?

The fruitfly analyses continue in other places however. RGEMonitor (the Roubini place full of the dumbasses in suits that you call economists) is still peddling the party line, as found in my inbox this morning:

A couple countries in Latin America have thus far been able to weather this crisis better than their neighbors. Brazil and Peru stand out for their relatively healthy fundamentals and financial systems. Both countries have benefitted from being relatively closed economies and from having diversified export markets and products.

This is BS. Brazil has an internal economy, but Peru is wholly dependent of the rest of the world and metals prices. The crap spouted by S&P last year wasn't confined to AAA ratings on US financial roadkills, as I still recall the day I guffawed non-stop about its call on the "surging internal economy of Peru" as it justified the worst ever 'investment grade' rating in the history of developing markets. Peru's single major export market is the gold that gets sent directly from Chicama and Yanacocha to vaults in Switzerland. Then comes copper to Asia and that's all she wrote, its about as diversified as the recipe for hotdogs. Not long now til the emperor is shown in his birthday suit and the arrogant know-alls at RGE eat their words, side order of crow. Short the Nuevo Sol.


Related Post: Will Spongebob Carranza resign in disgrace as Peru slips further into recession?

Amarillo Gold (AGC.v): Somebody likes his own stock..


Ahhh, nice to report a bit of positive insider trading instead of the scammy normality noted here. While some CEOs sell and sell and sell their recently made whole $2.50 options "for tax purposes" (gimme a freakin' break...just admit your greed and be honest) a Chairman of a different goldie is buying large chunks of his own stock.

Robert Landis is the name, and Amarillo Gold (AGC.v) is the stock

Amarillo Gold Corporation (AGC)

As of August 4th, 2009
Filing Date Transaction Date Insider Name Ownership Type Securities Nature of transaction # or value acquired or disposed of Unit Price
Aug 04/09 Jul 31/09 Landis, Robert Kumler Indirect Ownership Common Shares 11 - Acquisition carried out privately 200,000 $0.700
Aug 04/09 Jan 09/07 Landis, Robert Kumler Indirect Ownership Common Shares 00 - Opening Balance-Initial SEDI Report

Aug 04/09 Jul 31/09 Landis, Robert Kumler Indirect Ownership Common Shares 11 - Acquisition carried out privately 40,000 $0.840


And don't say I didn't warn you.

Par for the course from the sophists at Colossus Mineral (CSI.to)

When a exploration-stage junior gold mining company plays its shareholders for suckers again and again, doesn't it ring a tiny, weeny alarm bell chez vous, too? Here's the PR from yesterday and here's the chart and here's the M.O.

1. Ask Ari to strategically time his press release for just before the closing bell.

2. Scream "WOW!! WOW!! LOOK!!" at the sheep that can't see further than core grades.

3. Sell into the headless chicken buying frenzy.

4. Wait for people to realize that there's nothing significantly new in the press release.

5. Watch patiently the next day for the drop back to pre-announcement levels then buy back position and keep the 10% cash.

Molson Served. The End

Today's chart challenge

In the same style as CSG.v last week, here's another chart of another junior miner. so tell me, is this a buy, just by looking at the squiggly line?

It's a 12 month chart and you'll note that I've left the traded volume on this time to help you (but the price has been erased..that makes it too easy). The rest is up to you people that actually believe in this technical analysis mumbojumbo. Answer mañana, chicos.

Troy Resources (TRY.to) news

Overnight in Oz TRY.to came out with two PDFs worth reading.

This one, which is the new company presentation (read for yourself why you should own this company).

And this one, which tells that capex costs for Casposo are down to U$45m.

When this thing goes above $2, remember who screamed at you all through 2009 from 84c upwards, yeah?

Chart of the day is.....

....the development of the net worth of Los Kirchner, Neshtor and Klishtina, since they came to power in 2003 as Argentina's tag team presidency.

click to enlarge
Some numbers:

  • Their net worth jumped 158% in the period 2007 to 2008
  • Their net worth jumped 562% in the period 2003 to 2008
  • Assets stand at P$65m, including P$32m in bank deposits (mostly in dollars) and P$17.5m in shareholdings.
  • Debt stands at P$19m, including a brand new P$8.83m loan from Banco de Santa Cruz, the bank run by their pally pal Eskenazi who was recently handed the keys to a large slice of oil company YPF on easy payment terms.

It's just mouthdroppingly brazen and comes on the back of yesterday's QuoteOfTheDay from Klishtina herself who said "Few declarations are so transparent". As they say down Argentina way, ¡Que pais generoso!

8/4/09

Honduras coupmonger photoshop, part two

If you remember, we've already had the unspeakable fascists and their cohorts trying to make shit up via Photoshop, via this "where's da blood gone?" special. Now here's the latest photo doing the rounds amongst the liars and scoundrel pro-dictatorship press in the country.

click to enlarge

Nuff said. Thanks to Honduras Resistencia for this one. My you coup apologist dumbasses have a lot to be proud of with this bunch. I'm just glad Pinochet didn't have Photoshop in the 70s.

OH NOES! It Kaption Kompetition Time

Yes indeedy, as my inspiration batteries feel all dried out at the moment I'm throwing it over to you guys to come up with something witty, pithy, or whatever-y.

Colombia's Alvaro Uribe started his whistle-stop tour of South America today by visiting Twobreakfasts over in Peru. The idea is to explain to heads of state on a one-on-one basis just why he's going to let a shitload of US soldiers set up camp in his country (for a better and more serious analysis of things, check out Plan Colombia and Beyond, cos it's a better blog than here).

Anyway, Uribe does Peru today then flies on to chat with Evo in Bolivia later tonight. Then he takes in (and I think this order is correct) Chile ('Chelle), Paraguay (Don Juan), Uruguay (Tabaré), Argentina (Klishtina, and apparently these two get on really well) and finally Brazil (where Yoda has already mentioned that he's pissed about the whole idea). Amazingly enough he's missing out on Venezuela (some guy called Hugo) and Ecuador (The Muffin). Uribe's also too chicken to go to next week's UNASUR summit in Ecuador where the other 10 heads of state are gatherng.

BUT NO MATTER! What we want from you guys are captions for this photo:
Add them to the comments section below (like some of you do) or mail them over (like others of you do). The winner will be declared tomorrow and the first prize is....errr...a beer. Ok?

Pleeease John Enders..PLEEEASE

Will you please

Abiding in Bolivia has the lowdown on Freshman-Discovers-Bolivia-Parte-Dos and why this idiot disguised as a journalist is such a vast embarrassment......so I had to join him in the final photocredit.

Trading Post (Benny Lava edition)


Minera Andes (MAI.to) up 5.6% at $0.75, which is interesting because that's the same price as its placement currently happening. Which most probably means the placement is going well.

IMA Exploration (IMR.v) up 7.9% at $0.34, a move that won't surprise IKN Weekly readers.

Castle Gold (CSG.v) down 4.7% at $0.61 and for the record I picked up a few at 63c today on a short term trading play. DYODD on this one and know what you're buying....and why...and for how long...and don't blame me. IKN Weekly readers, again, should know what I'm talking about here.

Chariot Resources (CHD.to) up 4% at $0.26 on good volume and the beat goes on. Blackmont upgraded this thing last week and slapped a 55c target on it, too.

Corriente Resource (CTQ.to) (ETQ) down 2.8% at C$6.32 and might even become a buy soon at these levels. Management are now paying for all that "Any minute now folks!!!" BS pump that flatters to deceive.

Peru: Will Spongebob Carranza resign in disgrace as Peru slips further into recession?

When the last set of Peru GDP figures hit in July, FinMin and Liar Spongebob quickly came out and said that the economy "had touched bottom" (samo samo he's used all year) and said that the first half of 2009 would finish around +1%.
So inquiring minds would like to know whether Carranza will finally admit his policies have been utterly ineffective and that his constant overestimating bullshit has led his country up the garden path if the latest Banco Continental forecast of a Peru GDP downturn of -2% to -2.4% in June (the official number is expected out mid August) is proven true. According to the report:
"The Economics Studies Service of BBVA Banco Continental projects a fall in June GDP of between 2% and 2.4% after the poor performance (figures) of the primary and manufacturing sectors."
Such a figure would put Peru's GDP at around -1% negative growth for the first half of the year, a mile away from Spongebob's +1% for the first half of the year, a million miles from his 3% yearly forecast (that was as high as 5% in March) and a quadsquillion miles away from the total demagogic piffle spouted by Twobreakfasts late last year when he forecast Peru's 2009 as +6.5% and that his country's economy was "armour plated" against the world financial woes.
While we're at it, that 5% GDP figure mentioned by Carranza in March found its way into this IKN post at the time. A humble blogger like me calling bear on Peru all year against the world's economic brains calling "Peru economic miracle", so let's see now........
"... Twobreakfasts says it's going to be 5% this year, and Carranza says 5% this year, and the Central Bank says 5% this year, and the IMF says 5% this year. I mean, why on earth should you listen to me and ignore all those utterly reliable and impartial sources?"
Nuff said. I am available for hire or autographs so Spongebob, feel free to mail me you dumbass. You were a random walk FinMin who got lucky and did nothing during your first stint at the job, then actually bought into the BS they wrote about you. Fact is you're a zero, a liar, an emperor with no clothes and a knownothing. Resign and put us out of our misery.

Still obsessing on copper.....

...which is sad and wonky I know. Here are two charts that say to me "does not compute". This one shows the latest LME warehouse number, as up, up, up she goes.

This one shows the futures curve at the LME, with traders unafraid to be net long.

The only logical solution to this (as far as my limited neurons carry me, anyway) is that copper is a direct "weak dollar" play right now and screw the fundamentals. But the thing is, fundies will out in the end; they always do. If you're still bullish here that's ok but be careful and be specially ware of those bulls with very loud mouths and "100% certain" opinions on commodities at the moment. As far as I can see the complex is slave to the whims of the monetary markets, not who is or is not using metals. If the dollar decides to reverse and appreciate away from its current downmove (it wouldn't take much in the way of news in this skittish market) people will suddenly pay a lot of attention to that LME warehouse number as it continues its relentless limb.

All imho, dyodd, dude.

News Roundup (rummaging around, seeing what's been thrown out and recycling)

Ka-Boom

In Argentina last night, some dude wearing a hood left a bag outside the LAN Chile airline office which exploded four minutes later. No injuries but plenty of broken glass to clean up this morning. Poor old Chile...nobody likes 'em.

In Ecuador, this time next week a eport from the government media people is set to crack down on 34 radio and TV stations (out of 195 they found operating illegally). Correa says that some 'sacred cows' will have to close. English media have gone waaaay over the top about "state grabbing media" and freedom of speech stuff, so for a more balanced report check out this El Telegrafo report in Spanish language that tells it how it is. All the same, expect a bunch of white-handed students to march through Guayaquil.

Peru saw a nasty Sendero terrorist attack in which three police and two family members were killed. Not good at all.

Chart of the day is.......

....the Gold/Silver ratio


Just keeping it close on the radar, as usual. DYODD, dude.

8/3/09

Doe Run Peru declares insolvency

Well what a surprise.

Citing a "serious financial problem" (as well as getting no love for an extension to the time given by Peru to clean up the shithole of its own making called 'La Oroya',) Doe Run Peru this evening declared itself insolvent. This despite record demand, production and profit margins for smelting companies in the five year period to 2008 in Peru. How can all the other businesses in the mining sector make oodles of profit and DRP say it's deep in debt without being totally stripped bare of cash by its owner?

Or in other words, Ira has got your money and he isn't going to pay any stupid debt when a dumbass government will pay it for him. "Gringo Screw-You Capitalist Takes Wannabe Third World Country To The Cleaners" is hardly an original story, but it works here as well as it has in the other 56 squillion occasions.

Peru, you've been had as a bunch of suckers. Welkome to kapitalism komrades, now clean up the mess.

UPDATE: Interestingly, Peru's über pro-gov't paper El Comercio has just changed its headline on this story from "Doe Run Declares Insolvency" to a much milder-sounding "Doe Run Enters Process of Restructuring" on the same link above (the original title is now lost). The editor of this lapdog must have received squeals of horror from APRA.

Zero Currency 2

August 1

What's hot and what's not in Bolivia

Respected polling firm IPSOS/Apoyo has just come out with a new survey in Bolivia, asking 1,044 people from the four main population centres of the country their opinions on a range on national institutions and figures. Here are the results:


Top of the heap comes the Catholic Church, which will be no surprise to anyone who knows the region...it's like asking a Canadian whether he approves of hockey. Then strong support is shown for the country's media outlets (TV, radio, print media etc) and then come the Bolivian armed forces (again, no surprise). After that come a swathe of political figures with Evo leading the way on 57%. Frankly, anything above 50% for a politico is good going, so Evo, just four months away from the Presidential election shoo-in, will surely be happy with his number.

Bottom of the pile? Yep you guessed it, that nest of vipers known as the national congress. Y'see, Bolivia isn't all that different to chez vous after all.

Trading Post (civic edition)


My you frosties sure pack in those days off work, dontcha?

S&P500 up 1.31% at 1,000.41. Hooray, it got there. Now what? Hey dudes, why stop at 17X? Shall we go for 18X PE in the middle of a recession? 20X? Isn't this fun??

Freeport (FCX) up 7% at U$64.53 and having a great day at the office. PCU up 5.5% at U$27.18 and along for the ride, too. The reason is spot copper, of course, up at $2.70/lb. Who needs supply and demand anyway?

Fronteer (FRG) up 4.8% at U$3.94 on middling volumes and a taste of things to come for tomorrow in Toronto.

Petrobras (PBR) up 5.3% at U$43.43 as crude crosses U$70/bbl again. All Bovespa stocks having a great day, in fact. All South American indexes, as it happens.

Lithium Juniors = Snake Oil, part 63


Meet Ellie Stanborough, an 11 year old Limey with her exploded iPod. The whole story is over the The Times this morning and is ostensibly about the way Apple tried to gag her family into not speaking about the way her iPod did this:
Ken Stanborough, 47, from Liverpool, dropped his 11-year-old daughter Ellie’s iPod Touch last month. “It made a hissing noise,” he said. “I could feel it getting hotter in my hand, and I thought I could see vapour”. Mr Stanborough said he threw the device out of his back door, where “within 30 seconds there was a pop, a big puff of smoke and it went 10ft in the air”.
But for me the near-certain source of the explosion is more interesting, namely the lithium ion battery that powers the thing. Are you seriously suggesting you scale that sucker up 1,000 times and put it in a moving vehicle without large-scale upgrades in lithium technology? I mean, wouldn't it ruin your weekend to be rear-ended at a set of traffic lights and then have your legs blown off by your own car's power system a couple of seconds later?

The fuel of the future my ass. Said it before and will say it again, just looking at lithium junior miners is bad enough but actually thinking they're decent investments means your personal mental imbalance demands the stuff ingested.

The Monday OT: My loony bun is fine Benny Lava

I was going to save this for the Friday OT, but screw it. This is far, far too good and cannot be held back that long (ty bc)



Outstanding lines include:
  • My loony bun is fine Benny Lava
  • I see the nuns are gay
  • Who put the goats in there?

But there are so many more. Hit that play button, kind reader. Guaranteed enjoyment.

Charts of the day are...

....Peru's top 50 mining companies by 2008 sales.


The info comes from this interesting Spanish language link on Peru's top 500 companies published by America Economia last week. The first chart above has the top ten companies that between them account for 16% of everything sold by Peru in 2008 (and by that I mean everything, internal and external), a mightily impressive concentration of wealth. The chart below has companies 11 to 50.


Click on either chart for nice big versions that read easily.

I know at least five people who read this blog that need to get this free white paper

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A normal Bolivian wedding present: A house

Coming to Sucre and Cochabamba soon.........

Over the weekend in a public address in his home patch of Villa Tupari in Chaparé, Professor Evo Morales (known as a natty dresser and President of the fastest growing country in South America) said that:
"The state will provide a house to any couple that gets married."
Honestly, this is not a joke. The population of South America's poorest country has just added a 6th social program to provide its poorest citizens with a basic need, that of a house to any couple that gets hitched. Evo continued:
"This will be our (social) program and the government is obliged to attend this need."

And don't think for a minute that he won't come through on this one, because the other five social programs and payments launched by his government so far have been resounding successes, including the old age pension, payment for meals for schoolchildren, the pre-/post natal payments for mothers who attend hospital during their pregnancies and make sure their young babies get all the necessary care until the age of two, and one-off payments for ex-soldiers who saw combat in the Chaco war. Bolivia runs an annual average of 22,000 marriages per year. Something tells me that we're about to see an acceleration in that statistic. Meanwhile, what has your government done for you lately, blue-eyes?

8/2/09

Speak loudly and carry a big stick

Not a small one, boz. Here's Venezuela's bilateral trade with Colombia since 1998. Guess who has most to lose?
And while we're on the subject....
And you wouldn't believe how much of that figure is textiles. Funny how the two regional countries with the strongest anti-Chávez rhetoric are so quick to queue up and do business with Venezuela, innit? It's the economy, stupid.