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10/3/09

Colombia: Interesting news as reported by the BBC

Election run-ups, anyone?

There is an obvious loophole here, that of "no US bases but US personnel on Colombian bases", but all the same this is a very interesting report and seems to be some sort of U-turn by Uribe. Here's the first part of the BBC report, click through for the rest. Thank you reader JR for the headsup.

Colombian has sought to reassure other South American countries about its plans to continue military co-operation with the United States.

Foreign Minister Jaime Bermudez said that contrary to some reports there would be no US bases in the country.

Mr Bermudez told the BBC that Colombia appreciated US help but there was no need for more US military personnel.

..................

"Those who fight best in Colombia are our own soldiers. We don't need American soldiers to do this."


CONTINUES HERE

10/2/09

Constitution Mining (CMIN.ob): This is, of course, bullish

I mean, when the President and CEO suddenly resigns for no apparent reason it can only be good for the company, right?

When it comes to CMIN.ob you'll remember me....cos I'm the one who warned you.

Link here, text below:

On September 25, 2009, Willem Fuchter resigned as our Chief Executive Officer, Principal Executive Officer, President and as a member of our board of directors. There was no known disagreement with Dr. Fuchter on any matter relating to the Company’s operations, policies or practices. On September 29, 2009, the board of directors appointed Gary Artmont (Age: 59) to act as President, Chief Executive Officer and Principal Executive Officer and hold these positions until removed by the board of directors.

Mr. Artmont has served on our Board of Directors since September 7, 2007. Previously, he served as our President, Chief Executive Officer and Principal Executive Officer from September 7, 2007 to January 10, 2008. Prior to that, he served as our Vice President, Exploration, from March 13, 2007 until September 7, 2007. In the late 1990s, as Indonesian-based chief geologist for Freeport-McMoRan, Mr. Artmont was responsible for the management and coordination of a large helicopter-supported regional reconnaissance program and detailed property evaluation program from 1989-1995. During the late 1990’s through until 2007, Mr. Artmont evaluated acquisition opportunities in Eastern Europe, South America, Southeast Asia China and Mongolia. His work focused on a wide range of commodities including gold, copper, iron, coal and nickel. During his career, Mr. Artmont has conducted over 150 site visits to producing mines located throughout the world. Mr. Artmont was a director of Pac Rim (PRL) from 2000 to 2006 and Prosperity Resources (PSP-ASX) from 2006-2008. Mr. Artmont is not a director or officer of any other reporting company at the present time

There are no family relationships between Mr. Artmont and any other of our directors or executive officers.
Mr. Artmont has not had any material direct or indirect interest in any of our transactions since the beginning of the Company’s last fiscal year or in any currently proposed transaction. At this time, we do not have any employment agreement with Mr. Artmont.

The Friday OT: Mercedes Sosa, Solo le Pido a Dios

No other song possible today.



Hang in there, Negra.

UPDATE: This evening Sosa received the last rights. She's currently in a medically induced coma. It's all too sad for words right now, but hope does spring eternal.

Nadagold

rick!
RICK!


Mineweb link here and article starts like this. You reap what you sow in this game.

A New York-based law firm is investigating possible misconduct related to the securities of NovaGold Resources.

The pending litigation would become one of several class action lawsuits which have been filed against the Vancouver-based junior gold miner stemming from statements it made regarding the costs, progress and viability of the Galore Creek copper and gold project.

The law firm of Wolf Haldenstein is investigating whether American investors who bought NovaGold securities between January 24, 2006 through November 25, 2007, may have been mislead by statements made by NovaGold officers and directors concerning the costs, progress and viability of its Galore Creek project.

Chart of the day is.....

...copper, which didn't like the US (un)employment news much, did it?

Strange that....

By the way, this still applies:

10/1/09

Mercedes Sosa, get well soon


She's 74, she's been overweight for many years, she currently has a hepetitic problem that's affected her kidneys and lungs and has seen her in hospital for the last 11 days (Clarin report here). The news hit this morning and her state is "delicate".

But the main thing you need to know about Mercedes Sosa is that if an angel sang with a South American accent it would sound like Sosa. We are not worthy of her truly astonishing voice.

Get well soon, Mercedes Sosa.

UPDATE: She's now in critical condition. I'll be playing my Sosa Cds tonight.

On The Road


Places to do and people to go, so this blog will be light on the posting til Monday 5th October. Feel free to mail me, but don't be offended if you get no answer straight away.

Chart of the day is....

....sugar.
We did the chart last week and yup, that Brazilian crop forecast popped the commod back up.

9/30/09

Trading Post (Joachimsthal edition)


The valley of Joachim, Joachimsthal, is a place now located in the Czech Republic. In the 15th century, very high grade silver veins were discovered there. The mines were run by the Count of Slik and the coin minted there was named after the location and called the Joachimsthaler, later popularly shortened to simply 'Thaler'. The Thaler quickly gained a reputation as an uncorrupted and reliable coin and became popular all over Europe. Its name was linguistically corrupted by some country languages. In Denmark, for example, it was known as the 'Daler'. With the discovery and population of the New World, the name of Europe's most reliable coinage was adopted for its new money. It's still around today, we call it the "dollar" and it's the one and only driver of the metals market today, September 30th 2009. Follow the USD index today, folks, cos the rest is just noise.



Troy Resources (TRY.to) up 5.2%
at C$2.02. The rot stopped overnight in Oz and the Canadian listing is following its leader today. Volumes lowish.

Colossus Minerals (CSI.to) up 21.3% at $5.87. Welcome to the world of the junior miners, CSI.to newbies, enjoy the religious experiences on offer in the weeks to come. Contrary to rumour, CSI.to does not have a new bizplan of "drill every 5cm and extract the total orebody via drillcores". Avoid like the plague.

Dia Bras (DIB.v) down 2.1% at $0.235 but has made great strides in the last week or so. The newsflow is coming thick and fast, a sure sign of insiders safely installed and where they want to be. I own and I'm a mile up already, so DYODD, dude.

TheNewCrystallex (EC.v) down 1.1% at $0.47. Still no permit? LOL! Joke stock run by bullshitters for idiot dreamers only.

Crown Point Ventures (CWV.v) down 12.7% at $0.55. I was asked yesterday why I wasn't crowing on this stock, as we picked it here at 35c and then later in the low 40s. The reason is the bid/ask spread, cos even with nearly 200k traded today the bid is at 55c and the ask at 60c...not exactly liquid. I own a few (not many, just a few) and I'm aiming for loonie on the crapshoot. DYODD.

Comparing Silvers

We did a section similar to this post (though more focussed and less snarky) in The IKN Weekly, issue 22 last weekend.
click to enlarge

Check out this chart which shows how Fortuna Silver (FVI.v), Great Panther (GPR.to) and ECU Silver (ECU.to) have performed against silver the metal, as tracked by the Ag bullion ETF, SLV. What we can see is:
  • Silver has risen by 18% in the period on its positive run. All good.
  • Fortuna Silver has risen by 54% as the quality of this company begins to shine through.
  • Great Panther lagged for a while, then shot forward when silver-the-metal reached a critical point. Then at $17/oz and above GPR.to caught up and even overtook FVI for a while. This is because GPR.to has a marginal, high cash cost operation that only makes a decent profit when silver prices are high. When silver dropped back to $16/oz, traders found out the flipside to that strong leverage. The Lord giveth, and the Lord taketh away. Meanwhile, due to its low cash cost Fortuna makes money at all silver prices.
  • ECU Silver is a total waste of time and is best left to those influenced by BS pump tactics and shillers.

Moral of the story: First identify quality, then buy it. Then hold it. When it comes tp the world of small silver producers, there's none better than FVI.v. If you want to roll da bones on a high cash coster like GPR.to, well good luck to you. You won't find me screaming at you not to do it, but you won't find me as company, either. I like investing my money, not gambling with it. As for ECU.to, if you're long it's way past the time you admitted to yourself you were wrong. Or if you like, hold through and stay in investment kindergarten. Your money, your life, your call.

Presidential approval ratings in Latin America

A big thank you to Tim's El Salvador blog for the image below. Quite simply, Tim runs the best English language blog about El Salvador out there and does a high class job. Visit early and often and get wise to the country.

(click to enlarge and for better focus)

The chart is taken from the nice people over at Mitofsky, who put together these poll-of-polls every couple of months or so. The columns show the country and President, the month of the last poll (either August or September) the numbers of months s/he has been in office and the approval rating.
  • In the dark green "we totally rule" category, Funes in El Salvador and Martinelli of Panama are enjoying their honeymoon periods right now. Lula, 'Chelle and the little guy with glasses in Colombia are all as popular as ever.
  • In the light green "we're popular" category comes Calderón, Vasquez and Evo.
  • The yellow-shaded "look we're still ok here but we gotta watch out" category come some guy with a foxy wife, Studmuffin, Rasputin and Colom (who's managed to shake off the murder accusations in the last few days, too).
  • Bringing up the rear come the guy who EpicFailed in the negotiations with the coupmonger fascists of Honduras, Twobreakfasts and Klishtina. She was a dead duck Prez in month four or so...nothing has changed.

You'll note that Hugo isn't on the list. He polled 58% last time round, according to the pretty reliable Datanalisis polling firm.

Rusoro Mining (RML.v): Brent Cook shows his integrity

Last Friday evening, Brent Cook of Exploration Insights was the guest for the whole hour on BNN's Market Call evening show. I featured the re-run video in this post on Saturday as essential viewing for mineheads and a lot of you clicked through (if you haven't seen it yet, go have a look...you'll learn loads).

However I got a lot of feedback on the part where Cook commented on Rusoro Mining (RML.v) as he said the company was connected with Russian mafia. Well I laughed about it over my Saturday coffee and then mailed Brent Cook to say that I think he got that one wrong. From what I hear, other people with greater gravitas than I also thought it was a bit heavy. So it was impressive to see Brent Cook stand up yesterday and say "hey guys, I was wrong". In a world of overstuffed egos, kudos is again deserved by Cook for having the fortitude to admit his mistake publicly. I've been given permission to reproduce the extract from his letter to clients yesterday and here it is.

Before moving on to this week’s belated letter I need to rectify a statement I made on Friday’s BNN Market Call Tonight show regarding Rusoro Mining (RML.TSX)

To the best of my knowledge, there is no Russian mafia involvement or connection with Rusoro: I was wrong. According to the most recent information circular, the significant Russian shareholders in Rusoro are Andre Agapov (8.9 million shares), Vladimir Agapov (59 million shares) and Peter Hambro (~6.1 million shares). These are legitimate businessmen and companies.

In retrospect, had my foot not been so much quicker than my mind, this is what I should have said regarding why we are not invested in Rusoro:

Although Rusoro is an obviously undervalued gold company with measured and indicated resources of about seven million ounces and another seven million in the inferred category, I do not see a clear way forward that benefits shareholders: i.e. takes the share price up. There are too many variables and risks that are beyond our ability to understand and predict in Venezuela. This uncertainty is a very strong headwind that I believe will keep outside investors from re-rating the company for quite some time. An investment in Rusoro implicitly assumes that you trust the Venezuelan government (Hugo Chavez at the moment) to play fair with shareholders.

Venezuela has been, shall we say, less than fair in their appropriation of natural resources. In 2007 they nationalized the last foreign company’s participation in an oil field. In the mining sector, Gold Fields and Hecla experienced sufficient national and local government impediments and bureaucracy at their gold projects to convince them it was best to leave. Their departure benefited Rusoro who legally acquired the Choco deposits from Gold Fields and, Isidora from Hecla. RML has subsequently been able to work through the issues and turn those operations around. Rusoro is now the “company of choice” for the Venezuelan government, as evidenced by their joint venture on the Isidora mine.

Elsewhere in Venezuela, Crystallex (a 26-cent stock with reserves of 16.8 million ounces of gold) was denied a mining permit and is awaiting an appeal. Gold Reserve, the other foreign mining company operating in Venezuela, is contesting the revocation of a key permit by the government on their Las Brisas gold deposit. Both companies are effectively dead in the water at the hands of the government.


It just remains for me to say that, as a subscriber to Exploration Insights, I would recommend this high quality newsletter to all. Nobody does the world of rocks as well as Cook. Nobody. For more info, click through here. I state that I stand to receive no sort of renumeration whatsoever from recommending Cook's services to you, it's simply a case of reco'ing a quality service to make you into a better mining investor.

UPDATE: for those of you tuning in from V-Headline, please be clear that Roy Carson is a two-faced lying dickhead of the first order.

Charts of the day are.......

....the15 minute candles for gold and the US dollar index (USD).

Whatever makes you think they are related, Otto?


Ohhh, just a hunch, ya knowz...

9/29/09

We definitely don't like Lewis Amselem

I heart Machetera. Here's the start, click thru to read the rest. Seriously, quel sac de douche:
Lewis Amselem, the head of the U.S. delegation to the Organization of American States (OAS), who called President Manuel Zelaya’s return to his country “irresponsible” and “foolish” was denounced years ago for having concealed the identities of individuals, one of whom was a U.S. national, who tortured and raped a U.S. nun in Guatemala.
CONTINUES HERE

Also, check out the top compilation RB has put together over at ten percent.

Peru and Moody's: All you need to know


Sept. 29 (Bloomberg) -- Peru’s foreign debt rating was put on review for an increase to investment grade by Moody’s Investors Service (continues)

September 29 (AP): "....But Moody's faces additional scrutiny because one of its former analysts has accused the company of pressuring its analysts to inflate bond ratings, and its biggest shareholder, Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway, has unloaded nearly 9 million shares since July (continues)...."

September 23 (Reuters) - A former analyst with Moody's Corp (NYSE:MCO - News) has accused the credit ratings agency of issuing inflated ratings, and has taken his concerns to U.S. congressional investigators, the Wall Street Journal reported (continues)

May 29 2008 (Rebuild org): "The Moody's Corporation, a securities rating firm, is under suspicion of giving false ratings to some of the securities that it had been evaluating. Currently, the corporation is looking into whether those inaccurate, high ratings were the result of computer mistakes (continues)"

LIMA, March 24 2009 (Reuters) - More Peruvians went hungry last year despite blazing economic growth, a sign that President Alan Garcia is stumbling in efforts to direct benefits of an impressive expansion to the poor. The percentage of people in Peru with inadequate nutrition rose by more than 11 percent in 2008, faster than the economy's 9.8 percent surge, according to the national statistics agency. Now, 32 percent of Peruvians do not get enough to eat (continues)

LIMA, Oct 8 2008 (Reuters) - UPDATE 1 - Thousands march against García, corruption in Peru (continues)

Hundreds of other links available.

Pisco sours served, the end.


Astoundingly Poor on other continents, too


A non-LatAm OT, courtesy of kind reader and always entertaining mailer 'JR'. Let's not beat around the bush, let's just get the BBC to tell it as it is:

The Associated Press (AP) news agency has accidentally published internal notes about the arrest of film director Roman Polanski instead of a story.

The document details an exchange of messages between reporters about Mr Polanski, who was held in Switzerland and faces extradition to the US.

In the note, one reporter asks if his colleague can "do some more probing" and speculates that Switzerland was under pressure from the US.

AP swiftly filed a replacement article.

The mistake came to light on 27 September, with the headline "Swiss arrest Polanski on US request in sex case".

But rather than a conventional news story, the post contained basic information as to when the press conference would start, and then continued, saying the reporter would "push out another writethru [sic] with some more background details before press conference", while a colleague wondered if the Swiss were under "intense pressure" and whether they wanted "to throw the US a bone".

Sent in error, the copy was picked up by the Google News service, as well as being automatically posted to a number of yada yada continues here

Catching up with ECU Silver (ECU.to), Bill Murphy and the 2010 half price GATA challenge


Back on February 25th 2009, GATA head honcho Bill Murphy wrote the following words when talking about ECU Silver (ECU.to):
If this stock (ECU.to) is not at $3 US, or CDN, by the end of the year, I will cut the Café’s subscription price in half for 2010, or $100 versus the now $199 … which means I will lose hundreds of thousands of dollars if this dog does not hunt … am putting my money and my mouth where my money is.

Here's the link to those words in a very interesting article by Murphy also includes a jawdropping comment about how Murphy has only ever visited one mine in his life (that of ECU) but still considers himself an expert on things mining. He also calls the work done by ECU.to management "incredible". This is true, but only in the strict sense of the word. It beggars belief, frankly. And so with just three months or so left before the end of the year, let's see how close Bill's dawg is to that hunt:


Hmmmm....I have to say that by the looks of things, GATA Metropole Café subscription will indeed drop to $100 for 2010 and Murphy will indeed lose those hundreds of thousands of dollars he mentioned. A bit of a bummer for Murphy to lose more money on top of the cash that's evaporated from his 1.75m ECU.to shares held, but at least his loyal clientele get to benefit. But you never know in this crazy game of stockings marketings, so we'll keep a close eye on things....maybe Bill gets his late win after all! Hope springs eternal and all that.....

But remember GATAites, don't be backward about claiming your 2010 discount if it doesn't go Murphy's way. We all know that he's a man of his word and will honour his hubri...SORRY! his sincerely held views.

Trading Post (small and popping edition)


Strait Gold (SRD.v) up 15.4% at 7.5c and Pandoro (PML.v) up 11.1% at 25c. These two tiddlers have got together on the deal over a Peru copper/gold asset and you can read about in this PR. We will be going into detail about this in IKN23, out Sunday. For the moment we'll sum things up in one word: Interesting.

Dynasty Metals (DMM.to) down 0.8% at $3.85. DMM releases solid, factual good news and the market yawns. A sparrow farts close to an idiots-only Ecuador pump job like EC.v and it zooms 20% either way. Go figure yourself, but I still prefer the boring side of the street.

Troy Resources (TRY.to) down 7.7% at C$1.93 with raised but not massive volumes. The Aussie listing runs this stock and so the dot TO version will just do what its big brother did while it was asleep. There's a chance to buy cheaply here, which is good. The issue is whether there'll be a chance to buy cheaper later.

Kinross (KGC) up 3.2% at U$21.99. The weirdest story about K today hit bloomberg entitled "Kinross May Boost Gold Production 57% Within 5 Years". My immediate reaction was "or perhaps production will only increase 54.5%.... or maybe a bit less.... or maybe outperforming an impressive 58.214%". When you read it you see that all the dumbass reporter has done is assume that six pipeline projects in South America come online as scheduled, something as as likely as the hole in my trasero healing up. Included is the economically very dubious Cerro Casale white elephant up in the frozzy dry wastes of Chile (plenty of ounces, no idea how to get 'em out) and Fruta Del Norte in Ecuador, a place where exploitation permits will only start to get handed out 2012, which cuts three years out of the timeline before drawing a second breath. Really, what's the point of this type of bandwidth-waste? Bloomie hacks should really stick to what they do best, which is..... errrrrrrrr.............. mmmmmmmm....drinking coffee.

Honduras: The Sisters of Mercy speak out

If Jesus Christ is too communist for you please ignore the following. If you are a normal, adjusted person, please take action. TY reader DB for the headsup.


FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

September28,2009

U.S. RELIGIOUS DELEGATION TO HONDURAS CALLS ON U.S. GOVERNMENT TO SPEAK OUT AGAINST HUMAN RIGHTS VIOLATIONS

Stephanie Heiland

Sisters of Mercy of the Americas

314.909.4633

As the crisis in Honduras explodes with last week's unexpected return of President Zelaya and now with the suspension of Hondurans' constitutional rights, the Sisters of Mercy Institute Justice Team is meeting with U.S. policy makers, including Administration and Congressional offices, urging them to speak out strongly and publicly in denouncing the excessive force and brutal human rights violations committed by the de facto Honduran government.

This call for immediate action to address the emergency situation in Honduras is included in a report issued by a U.S. religious delegation to Honduras which visited Honduras August 18-25, 2009. The delegation's report documents key findings following meetings with legal, government, church and humanitarian officials and agencies in Honduras, as well as on-site testimonials from dozens of Hondurans who reported horrific human rights violations.

Organized by the Sisters of Mercy of the Americas Institute Justice Team with the support of Quixote Center/Quest for Peace, this U.S. religious delegation was in response to requests from religious partners and community organizations in Honduras for international accompaniment following the June 28, 2009 coup in Honduras.

Delegation members included Jean Stokan, Sisters of Mercy of the Americas Director of the Institute Justice Team; Diane Guerin, RSM, Sisters of Mercy of the Americas - Mid-Atlantic Community Justice Coordinator; Edia Lopez, RSM, Sisters of Mercy of the Americas - Caribbean, Central America and South America Community; and Marie Dennis, Co-President of Pax Christi International.

"We urge the U.S. to be unequivocal in the signals it gives to the de facto Honduran government on the need to return to constitutional order," said Stokan. "The hope is that once constitutional order is restored, the challenges around addressing the deep polarization in society can be advanced. Too much is at stake not to proceed in this direction."

To access a summary report and full report from U.S. Religious Delegation to Honduras: Go to www.sistersofmercy.org



Mansfield Minerals (MDR.v): Whatever gives you the impression of self-serving management, Otto?

Ooooh, just a slight suspicion, ya knowz.

Let's check on the recent action over at Mansfield Minerals (MDR.v), a company with assets in South America including its main one, Lindero, a gold heap leach project with somewhere between 1.5m and 2m oz Au to dig up, it seems. Here's the three month chart for MDR....
....and we can see that on September 18th the stock moved up in fine style on heavy volumes. This because MDR released this PR a couple of hours after the opening bell that gave the world warning that they got gold, they got a 43-101 pre-feas study on the way in 4q09, they gotta be loved by all.

So the stock shot up. Fair enough, but it also shot up just (and I mean just) after company President Gordon Leask helped himself to 250,000 shares at $0.57, scant minutes before the big move was made. and the stock finished at 83c for the day (today it's 85c, FWIW):

Mansfield Minerals Inc. (MDR)

As of September 28th, 2009
Filing Date Transaction Date Insider Name Ownership Type Securities Nature of transaction # or value acquired or disposed of Unit Price
Sep 28/09 Sep 18/09 Leask, Gordon Patrick Direct Ownership Common Shares 10 - Acquisition in the public market 250,000 $0.570



If we check out the one minute chart for MDR in the period....

....we can see just how amazingly, amazingly, spookily lucky Gordy's timing really was. Now for sure these 1min charts are never easy to read, but if you click it to enlarge you'll see how it worked.

Let's hope management at MDR is as good at adding net worth to the company as they are about adding it to their own back pockets. DYODD.

Troy Resources (TRY.to) (TRY.ax): The slump continues

The big bad boardroom battle over at Troy Resources (TRY.to) (TRY.ax) has done this to the company share price over the last couple of days....
....with another 6.8% lopped off in Australia last night and the Canadian stock likely to go under C$2 by the end of play this morning. For some bckground of the whole shebang, check out this report in The Australian.

As a TRY long I'm watching the issue carefully, but mainly for two reasons:

1) Will it cause any delay for the Casposo mine construction?
2) Will it give me a decent place to buy more stock?

The first one is the key to the drop. The boardroom spat seems to be centred on the way TRY wants to raise the cash to build its new mine, so while there's dissent there may be a delay in the forward movement at Casposo. Nothing sure yet, but if things slow down it can't be good in the short term.

The second one is the way to play this, in my opinion at least. With people panicking out of the stock still, the drop is still fast and there's no point in catching the falling knife. But if we can (hopefully) identify the bottom at some point, the chances of adding to this company with great fundies and long term prospects may turn into a trade to remember. DYODD.

Oh noes! Ecuador peaceful! Dismay washes over western world!

News from the indigenous protest that was being gushingly gushed by the dumbass English media in LatAm as "Correa's first showdown" with the indigenous community that had already "toppled previous governments" and stuff is that the protest has been suspended and dialogue has started. Here's Reuters (translated from Spanish report):

QUITO: Ecuador's indigenous movement called off a protest on Monday that threatened to paralyze the Andean nation after reaching an agreement with the government to open a proces of dialogue concerning an official proposal that will regulate the use of water.

After sporadic roadblocks in strategic places all day, the indigenous leaders decided to suspend the protest amidst discontent from the grassroots bases of the organization that did not support the talks with the government.

Or in other words, the dumbass English language press had you all worked up over nothing.

Again.

You really should stop getting your LatAm biznews from people who can't speak the Spanish or Portuguese. In factt he only news worth worrying about out of Ecuador is good, with the first pour of gold at Dynasty's (DMM.to) Zaruma mine showing the progress to responsible mining practices that the government has promoted all along...but we don't wanna talk about good biznews from and AxisOfEvo™ country, do we?

Vino calientes served. The end.

Chart of the day is.....

....the gold/silver ratio (cos we haven't stuck it up here for a while) accompanied by three semi-randomly generated messages:



1) The way today is shaping up we can expect the GSR to move North.

2) Yes, I've read the zerohedge article about gold and the smoking gun, thank you all for sending in the link but no need to send it in any more. Shock horror, gold is manipulated. The only thing new is that zerohedge suddenly cares about gold. That has to be a contrary indicator.

3) Happy birthday to my beautiful, intelligent, wonderful, kind and generally fabulous wife.

9/28/09

Colossus (CSI.to): Canaccord burns its clients' cash again


From IKN's department of shareholders-if-they-can't-take-a-joke-f***-em, Colossus Minerals is making great strides this morning because some analyst who works at the can of corn that really, REALLY should learn some Portuguese before opening his mouth reco'd the stock to his flock. Here's how Canaccord's Morning Coffee publication broke the shameless BS pum.......SORRY!!, the considered analytical opinion to its flock this morning.

"Given the considerable M&A activity in the mining sector and a growing consensus that the price of gold may still track upwards, it appears investors may have some interesting opportunities. Canaccord Adams Mining Analyst Nicholas Campbell believes that Colossus Minerals is a likely acquisition target and sees the potential for the project to be advanced to production by late-2011 to early-2012."

.
Truly I say unto you, great grades or not there's more chance of Hugo Chávez having gay sex with Andrés Oppenheimer than any major paying serious multimillions for this asset. Not only are there serious geological issues and a lot of geols scratching their heads and saying "with host rock like that, how the devil are we going to get it out the ground?" but the volatile political risk tinderbox that is Serra Pelada makes Honduras look calm and stable. Canaccord's analysts are just leading their sheep up the garden path...again.
.
Dumbass analysis on Latin American mining issues never ends, even from those who get paid to analyse LatAm mining. Production late 2011? Gimme a break! I laugh at the lemmings, sneer contemptuously at the uninformed analysts leading them astray and avoid this stock like the plague.

Evo and popularity

From IKN's department of fed-up-to-the-back-teeth-with-this-bullshit-bias, here we go with the latest opinion polls and Presidential approval ratings for Evo Morales of Bolivia. With just two months before the most one-sided presidential race since Chirac vs Le Pen, Evo has been given a 60% approval rating over the length and breadth of Bolivia, up six points since the last poll, by the reliable pollsters Ipsos Apoyo.
.
So Evo is popular, period. He's popular because he's been doing a good job. Got that? I know it might be tough to swallow for some of you, but it's just another inconvenient fact that you're gonna have to live with, dudettes and dudes. However there's more to see in the numbers and that's why there are several bars on that chart above. The results have been broken down further and show Evo's support in the three major conurbations of Bolivia. In his La Paz/El Alto stronghold he's running an impressive 84%. In Cochabamba he's polling 56% and is far more popular than his main (adjective used loosely) election opponent, local boy Manfred Mann Villa Reyes or Reyes Villas or whatever his name is. In Santa Cruz, he's polling under 50% but the 39% approval is nobody's idea of a total disaster. Just check how Evo's numbers in Santa Cruz compare to Twobreakfasts in the whole of his country, also according to Ipsos/Apoyo.
.
Strange how the English language media that cover South America love to dwell on Evo's unpopularity in Santa Cruz but nary a word gets printed about the utter rejection felt by the Peruvian people all over the country towards their dumbass-in-chief. Strange, innit?

Dynasty (DMM.to): Anyone still saying that miners can't work in Ecuador?


To all naysayers of the Ecuador mining scene: You were wrong. Live with it. Dynasty Metals (DMM.to) is open for business.

VANCOUVER, BRITISH COLUMBIA--(Marketwire - Sept. 28, 2009) - The management of Dynasty Metals & Mining Inc. (TSX:DMM - News; "Dynasty" or the "Company") is very pleased to announce the Company has poured its first gold at its recently commissioned gold processing plant at Zaruma in Ecuador. In total, the dory bars poured by the Company contained approximately ten kilograms (320 ounces) of gold and 50 kilograms (1,600 ounces) of silver.

Robert Washer, the Company's President and Chief Executive Officer commented: "This is a significant moment in the Company's history and for the development of a modern mining industry in Ecuador. We would like to thank the government of Ecuador for its ongoing support for the development of the Zaruma Gold Project, which is the first large scale modern mining operation in Ecuador's history."

The Company has now successfully commissioned all sections of the plant. The Company will continue to optimize plant operations by processing material mined during the ongoing development of the declines.


I wonder what the idiot bashers will say next about Correa's government and its attitude towards mining? So if the dumbass liars still want to argue facts, first look up what "gold pour" means, send them the definition and then tell them to....

Understanding Venezuela financial experts


So Venezuela is selling U$3Bn in dollar bonds, most probably this week, to its local market.

Here's what local experts are saying:
The bolivar will likely extend its rebound in the parallel market in the run-up to the $3 billion offering, said Russell Dallen, head trader at Caracas Capital Markets at BBO Financial Services Inc. The rally may stall after the sale, he said.

“Once the new issue comes to market -- unless the government has some other ongoing plan up their sleeve to shore up the rate -- all bets are off and we would expect to see the bolivar return to its consistent path of devaluation and continued deterioration,” Dallen said.

And this is what it means.
"It's not fair! Thye're not playing by the rules! The VEF should have been at 10 by now, but don't worry, fee paying clients, we're still right even when we're wrong."

Otto sez: When you own machinery that produces 3.2 million barrels of oil a day, those barrels of oil cost $6 each to produce and you sell 3/4 of them overseas for over $60, you don't follow rules. You make them.

Copper

Here's the latest LME inventory number (which shot up over 340,000MT late last week):

Here's the five year inventory:
Here's the spot price over the same period.


Is the rise in inventories and the reversal of copper prices related?

Is the Pope Catholic?

Do bears tend to defecate in woodland areas?

The Don Coxe weekly webcast

Here's the link, go have a listen to the nice Mr Coxe and his world class musings and thoughts on the market. Well worth your time this week.

Thank you to reader 'm' for the headsup.

Charts of the day are.......

..Peru's new vehicle sales, 2008 and 2009.

Here's the 2009 to date numbers compared to the same period of last year...


...and this one shows the August 2008 vs August 2009 single month numbers.

When publishing this, the Peru car people, ADEPA, said that things are getting better. I reckon it must be that "getting better" phrase that the US homebuilders used back in early 2008. According to El Comercio,
"Despite the figures, ADEPA considers that sales continue to show a moderate recovery in relation to the first few months of this year."
I ABSOLUTELY ADORE that phrase "despite the figures". You could re-write that as "despite the truth" or perhaps "despite the plain facts staring at them in the face" because when I went to numbers skool a January-August drop of 20.96% and an August drop of 28.6% would mean that the slowdown in sales is getting worse, not better.

Peru's economic miracle: The miracle is that people believe their bullshit.

9/27/09

The IKN Weekly, out now


IKN22 has just been sent to subscribers. One mailbox has bounced, so could "buckeye" get in contact, please?