The buzz is that it's a three pronged race: Luis Castañeda, Keiko Fujimori and Alejandro Toledo. Keiko is cacking herself cos she thinks Toledo is going to take her place in the run-off (ottonote;the Peru system is very similar to Colombia's, where a 2nd round run-off happens between the top two if no candidate gets 50% +1 vote). Her best line so far is "I am not the continuation of Fujimorista policies" which is worthy of Kafka himself and the type of thing that can only be taken seriously on this most wonderful of continents.
Castañeda is unknown outside of Lima. Outside of Lima is where round one is won or lost. He has zero charisma and isn't cut from the right cloth to be a LatAm prez. If he squeaks it (it's possible) he'd be a direct continuation of current policy, with the pzazz of Fernando de la Rua (ottonote: the ex-Prez of Argentina who made a virtue out of being boring in his election campaign).
Toledo has every chance of winning it, I think. He's the only one that's 'presidenciable'. Also, look at the history books and check how many times Peru has voted in a president twice. There's a national trait here.
Humala is now a side issue. Keiko takes too much of the popular (-ist) vote away from him. I'm glad, as although my left of centre politics should make me sympathetic to him, the guy is a poor excuse for a leader. The wrong man at the right time.
Keiko: Please, no. Please.
- In a Keiko vs Castañeda 2nd round, Luis wins (probably)
- In a Castañeda vs Choledo 2nd round, it'll be close but i think Toledo gets it
- In a Keiko Toledo 2nd round, Toledo wins. Take that to the bank.
My $5 is on Choledo (ottonote; one of the many nicknames for Toledo). He'll probably wait on announcing a run until Aug/Sept and then use the momentum to his advantage.
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The time was yesterday, the place was this author's inbox and the occasion was a mail to answer a reader's question on the current buzz about the Peruvian presidential elections next year. At the moment the contenders are jockeying for position and the race is starting to heat up, so here's the impressions so far as written in reply (edited very slightly to protect the innocent)