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Which will be worth more at end 2015?

4/24/10

A room with a view (part 2)

After the 'Room with a View' post of a few days ago, many kind readers have cared enough to send in shots of the views they have from their shacks and mansions. After humming and hahing over what to do with all the deliveries, the decision is to run one per week on Saturday (the best day for OT stuff). Lots of great shots available, but let's kick off with this photo sent in by DG of San Bruno Mountain, San Francisco, CA, USA.

Thanks DG.

Post of the week

This week, 'Post of the Week' goes to Setty's Notebook, but more for the overall output in the public blog's first week of existence than any one specific post. Setty shows balance when talking about Venezuela, something that is sadly rare. Two examples:

This one, where the PDVSA press conference and supporting literature is examined and the obvious gov't pumping laid bare.

This one, where idiot anti-Chávez propaganda is made to look what it is: Stupid.

Put setty on your reading list.

4/23/10

The Friday OT: Bob Marley and the Wailers; Buffalo Soldier

Taught me how to off it.



Played on the radio in the taxi of this afternoon. The driver laughed at me singing it at the top of my voice.

Exploding into ten million pieces the hand that doesn't feed you

This pasted with no further comment, apart from saying that Grupo Mexico executives are just as big a set of dickheads as the unions. A very sad story all round.

Hundreds of striking miners at Mexico’s Cananea copper mine said they will destroy the site if the government tries to dislodge them.

The union representing the striking miners, who seized Mexico's Cananea copper mine three years back, said explosives have been set to destroy the facility if they are evicted from the site.

The threat comes after Mexico’s Supreme Court upheld an earlier court ruling allowing mine owner Grupo Mexico to terminate the contracts of the strikers and hire new workers.

The miners first walked off the job at the Cananea copper mine three years ago over concerns about continues here


Camino Minerals (COR.v): One of yesterday's Flash updates


Another example of what goes on over at the paid subscription service (yes, it's a promo). Yesterday subscribers were sent two Flash updates (which is not normal, because the normal rhythm is maybe one per week). One of those was on a company we've followed on an ongoing basis for quite some time so the content is for subbers only. But the other one was a rare one that suggested a short-term trade in Camino Minerals (COR.v). Below is a paste of the missive in its entirety, though it's worthy to note that;

1) The IKN Weekly is normally not a short-term tipping service. We usually take a 12 month view to stock selections unless specified and as such, the Flash of yesterday was very much an exception rather than a rule.

2) I have just sold the small chunk personally bought after the Flash update went out yesterday. When nice Mr. Market offers me a 30% win in under 24 hours, I take it. Therefore though I can't speak for subscribers I can say that I'm not trying to pump this play any further via this post for the sake of my personal portfolio.

3) Toby Shute rules.

So with those two in mind, here's what was sent to clients yesterday (with typos included). For what it's worth, plenty subbers got on at the low prices according to feedback received.

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Thursday, 22 April, 2010 11:47

Good morning, 11:47am and well into the trading day.

Camino Minerals (COR.v) may be offering us a quick, short-term trading opportunity today. However it must be stressed that this trade should be considered for risk-tolerant profiles only.

The background is this: COR.v (website here) is the spin-out from the recent successful buyout of Canplats by Goldcorp (GG). As part of the buyout deal, Canplats shareholders got shares in the newco company that is now known as Camino Minerals (COR.v), which has bundled together the assets not sold to GG and also has $10m in working cap to start it off, too. Its total shares out figure is 64,265,432.

Today is the first day of trading for COR.v and it has opened nearly 50% down from its nominal price of 49c. It is currently trading at 26c (bid 25c, ask 26c). Volume is very high at over 11m shares traded.

It seems to me (and also the thought of the person mentioned below who gave me the headsup this morning) that COR.v shares are trading down at high volumes possibly due to forced liquidations. There are many institutions that might have held the old Canplays (CPQ when it existed) but are not allowed to hold micro-cap penny stocks such as COR.v, therefore due to the nature of their funds they are obliged to liquidate.

This is the opportunity envisaged. At the current 26c, COR.v has a market cap of $16.7m. This is backed up by $10m in cash at bank. It also has a book of prospective assets. Finally, it's run by proven winners in the exploration game.

This seems like good odds to me, a good risk/reward scenario for this trappy game of exploration mining investment.

WARNING: Wwe're considering a very short term flip play here. Therefore the main caveat is that although 26c (mkt cap $16.7m) may look cheap today, the nature of selling patterns may make the stock even cheaper tomorrow. That's the main risk here.

The IKN Weekly in this style gives you a headsup on this risky, short term play. Be clear that this kind of trade is not for everyone. Go in with your eyes open.

Disclosure: I am not long yet but may take a position this afternoon. I will happily sell if a quick short-term profit is offered.


Final word. Toby Shute, an analyst over at The Motley Fool (RSS link here) is a site friend and smart at the investing game (well worth your while following him..esp strong at oil&gas companies). He gave me the headsup on the COR.v trading today and after consideration I think it's worth passing all the above on to the subscriber base. I want to make it clear that your author takes full responsibility for the call (i.e. if it goes wrong blame me and not Toby).


Best, O

Weekend movie recommendation


This week your humble scribe and his fave squeeze sat down one evening after putting the kids to bed and watched "El Secreto De Sus Ojos", the English title being "The Secret In Their Eyes", the Argentine movie than won the Best Foreign Film Oscar this year.

It was brilliant. Story, actors, rhythm, argument, everything. I'm not going to go into a grand critique of the movie here, cos you can find all those online in other places. The only thing to say is that if you're looking for some top-class entertainment from the seventh art this weekend, you will not go wrong in renting/buying/seeing this movie. Highly recommended.

Scotia upgrades Troy Resources (TRY.to) (TRY.ax)


"When you make the finding yourself, even if you're the
last person on Earth to see the light, you never forget it."

Carl Sagan

For those with longer memories, we at IKN chortled hard at Scotia Capital and Trevor Turnbull when he downgraded Troy Resources (TRY.to) (TRY.ax) last year, at the exact same time that the stock started its big run from the very low $1s to the high $2s. However, fair dinkum to the dude for two reasons:
1) He took his dosage like a man (far better than the normal whining from the analyst community, it must be said).

2) Today he's re-rated Troy Resources again, upgrading and raising his target to CAD$2.50 (as reported on the DJNW wires, no link sorry)
We like Trevor Turnbull. And we very like Troy Resources. DYODD, dude.

Chart of the day is...

.....gold, daily candle.

Also, you gotta check out BiiWii and his post on the Gold/Silver Ratio this morning. One of the very few people worth listening to when it comes to charting.

4/22/10

Colombia Poll: Santos 35%, Mockus 34%

Holy crap, he's only gone and caught him up in two flat weeks! Krupa over at LatAm Daily has the juice.

UPDATE: The ever-excellent Colombia Reports runs its report on the latest numbers, too.

Trading Post (flashy edition)


Fortuna Silver (FVI.to) down 0.8% at $2.54. San José is on the way so fear not the might of Vulcan.

Camino Minerals (COR.v) down 40.8% at $0.29. Big volumes on its first day of trading too.

Focus Ventures (FCV.v) down 18.4% at $0.47. Nueva California = Norwegian Blue. As one mailer pointed out, the kiss of death phrase is there in today's NR; "Management is also considering looking for a joint venture partner to continue the exploration of Nueva California". When you see that one it's Fat Lady Sings time.

Medoro Resources (MRS.v) up 11.8% at $0.76. Speaking of big volumes, this thing has done over 50m papers today. Franky the organ grinder playing his music. Will the trained monkey chirp in too?

Semafo Inc (SMF.to) up 2.9% at $5.99. Following this morning's quiz question, the IKN mailroom received 22 replies, all of them correct. A pleasure to have such an eddycated audience. You all rule, but the WINNAH WINNAH CHIKKIN DINNAH goes to reader 'JL' who was first to point out that the Mana mine is not in South Africa but in Burkina Faso. He answered within eight minutes of the post going up in fact, which was pretty impressive. Reuters dumbasses please take note.

By the way, subscribers received two Flash updates today on two of the stocks mentioned above.

First Majestic (FR.to): This deserves a shout-out


Today's news release from First Majestic Silver (FR.to) is worthy of a bit of extra airtime. This humble scribe watches FR.to but doesn't currently own or cover as a recommended buy, but that might have to change soon. Check out the contents of the NR:

VANCOUVER, BRITISH COLUMBIA--(Marketwire - 04/22/10) - FIRST MAJESTIC SILVER CORP. (TSX:FR - News)(OTCQX: FRMSF)(Frankfurt:FMV - News)(WKN: A0LHKJ) ("First Majestic" or the "Company") is pleased to announce that the Centro Mexicano para la Filantropia (CEMEFI) has once again awarded First Majestic the "Socially Responsible Business Distinction" award for 2010 (Distintivo Empresa Socialmente Responsable 2010).

This important recognition marks the second consecutive year that First Majestic has received this annual award of distinction. This award is another indication of the Company's commitment to social responsibility and was granted to First Majestic for its many continuous programs in place in the areas of responsibility, transparency and sustainability within its Mexican operations.

The Company accomplished this distinction due to the following relevant activities in which the Company excelled over the past year:


-- Corporate Governance and Ethical practices,
-- Quality of work within the Company,
-- Relationships with the communities in which the Company operates, and
-- Sustainability, Preservation and Stewardship of the environment.

Mr. Neumeyer, President & CEO stated; "Management at First Majestic feels strongly that being socially responsible sets the foundation for high values and principles within the Company and supports the mission of growth in a sustainable way, taking care of the Company's most valuable assets, our people and the communities in which we work." CONTINUES HERE


This kind of thing is important. It's also good to see the company is proud about winning this award (two years running, too) and ready to puff out its chest, showing it off to its shareholders and to the general public. We've noted already that the FR.to share price hasn't been performing as well as sector peers so far in 2010. Let's hope that going forward the FR.to social attitude is valued by the market and the company gets a lift from doing things the right way.

At IKN we call out the bad players, but equal pleasure is taken by applauding the good guys of mining.

Kudos to First Majestic Silver (FR.to).

Disclosure: no position.

It's Competition Time, courtesy of Reuters dumbasses

The first person to spot the mistake in this Reuters report on Semafo (SMF.to) out this morning wins a prize. The full report pasted out here:

UPDATE 1-Semafo sees superior study results at S.Africa mine

Thu Apr 22, 2010 10:10am EDT

Stocks

Semafo Inc.

SMF.TO

$5.79

-0.03-0.52%

8:40am EDT

* Study shows 5 pct rise in bedrock recovery at Mana

* Sees C$40 mln additional cash flow

* Says expects superior pre-feasibility study results

April 22 (Reuters) - Canadian gold miner Semafo Inc (SMF.TO) said studies showed a 5 percent rise in the recovery rate in a South African mine, which would mean higher cash flow for the company.

"Based on the outcome of rock mechanics and metallurgical studies, we anticipate superior pre-feasibility study results," Mining Operations Manager, Patrick Moryoussef said in a statement.

The new estimated average recovery rate of 81 percent at the Mana mine would add over C$40 million in cash flow from the bedrock reserves, the company said.

The study by SGS South Africa and Golder Associates showed better-than-expected results including a fall in the estimated reagents consumption to process the ore.

The company now expects results of pre-feasibility and feasibility studies in the second and third quarters.

Shares of the company were up 1.3 percent at C$5.9 in morning trade on the Toronto Stock Exchange. (Reporting by Arnika Thakur in Bangalore; Editing by Savio D'Souza)

China's global investments: An excellent interactive map over at Forbes

Click here to go see a great interactive map put together by Jon Bruner of Forbes Mag. No image pasted here can do it justice so go over and find out for yourself, but to give you a taste here's the blurb that accompanies the visual.

"Since 2005 Chinese firms and arms of the Chinese government have invested hundreds of billions of dollars in foreign companies and raw materials. Each dot on this map tracks one of those investments, with larger dots representing larger investments. Explore the map by rolling over and clicking on the dots and timeline."

Here's the link again, to make sure you visit. Kudos to Bruner for a job well done and thank you to reader 'AT' for the headsup.

Hey, did you hear about the country which improved its macroeconomy so much that the world stopped talking about it?

Instead, it decided to continually misquote its president and start false polemics.

The English media in LatAm; although up against some stiff opposition, possibly the world's most inane propaganda machine.

Chart of the day is.....

....a world map of GDP growth in 2010 and 2011, found at this link in Spain's newspaper of reference 'El Pais', using this week's IMF figures and with labels translated into English by Otto Rock (that's me, dude).
Click to enlarge (gets bigger and easier to see)

Notably picked out by El Pais are those countries set for stagnant growth in the period, as well as some of the IMF's predicted higher flyers.

UPDATE: Mistake in the title of the chart. It should read '2010 and 2011' but your humble scribe had an attack of numerical dyslexia, it seems. Sorry 'bout dat.

4/21/10

Life's easiest jobs, part 15: A bookmaker in Argentina


With just 50 days to go to the beginning of the greatest sporting contest on the planet (hint: USA isn't very good at this sport) we check in on the Mision Mundial dedicated page at Argentina's biggest circulating newspaper, Clarín, to check on a reader's poll. The question asked is:

"Who will be the next World Cup Champion?"

Here's are the results so far:
  1. Argentina 51.1% (33107 votes)
  2. Spain 19.3% (12506 votes)
  3. Brazil 11.9% (7720 votes)
  4. Germany 3.1% (2008 votes)
  5. Uruguay 2.7% (1757 votes)
  6. Chile 2.6% (1712 votes)
  7. England 2.6% (1697 votes)
  8. Holland 1.5% (943 votes)
  9. Italy 1.4% (881 votes)
  10. South Africa 1% (673 votes)
  11. Portugal 0.6% (394 votes)
  12. France 0.4% (251 votes)
  13. Other 1.8%(1134 votes)

Just more proof that Argentina lives in its own little world, hermetically sealed off from reality.

Leguis served, the end.


UPDATE:
I pie with my little eye....

Minera Andes (MAI.to): 1q10 production at San José seriously sucks

News from Hochschild (HOC.L) today is not good for holders of Minera Andes (MAI.to), a stock we held over at The IKN Weekly for a while but dumped it due to underperformance. The HOC.L production figures for 1q10 include the basics for San José, which is 51% owned by HOC.L and 49% owned by MAI.to. Here in chart form are the main numbers:

Throughput was down:

Silver production was way down:

Gold production was also way down:

This MAI.to has been pumped hard since the end of last year by The Zeds over at The Can of Corn as one of their stocks of 2010 or summink like that. Also, for some unknown reason MAI.to got a target upgrade from Zed One (or is that Zed two?) a few days ago. Looks like either some bait'n'switch going on, or just plain ignorance. Neither would surprise me when its the can of corn in question, but I'd bet a loonie on the second option.

UPDATE 1:48pm. MAI.to releases the same numbers, an hour after this post went up. You heard it here first, folks. The MAI NR also includes this sad looking paragraph:

First quarter 2010 first quarter silver and gold production were 20% and 18% lower respectively compared to the fourth quarter of 2009 as a result of lower mine production and lower head grades for both silver and gold as well as lower silver recovery rates in the mill, partially offset by higher gold recovery rates. Mine production has been impacted by delays in underground mine development, which has delayed access to certain higher grade stoping areas. Mill throughput in the first quarter of 2010 was 4% lower than the level of the previous quarter. Year on year, silver and gold production were 37% and 1% lower respectively, mainly due to the delay in mine development.

So, it's a special time for a special message to Zerb and his recent MAI.to dumbass upgrade:


A room with a view (an OT post)

"Over such trivialities as these many a valuable hour may slip away, and the
traveller who has gone to Italy to study the tactile values of Giotto, or the
corruption of the Papacy, may return remembering nothing but the
blue sky and the men and women who live under it."

A Room With A View, E.M. Forster (1908)

If you go out the front gate of my house, turn left and walk 20 metres, this is what you see.

In fact you see this from the house as well, but the photo is cleaner from the end of the street. Taken this morning to answer a mailer's question, but just for the fun of it we'll put them up here.

So now that I've shown you mine, if you feel like showing me yours send in the photo to the usual address. You might even get the snap up on the blog (if you want).

Reminiscences of stock operators


The year is 2015, the scene a bar in Manhattan downtown:

Broker 1: Hey dude, remember that Goldman SEC thing back in 2010?
Broker 2: Yeah, that was wild!
Broker 1: Damn, you remember how all those bloggers were screaming about the end of Goldman?
Broker 2: Hahaha, Freakin' idiots! The suit was going to clean up WallSt or something, right?
Broker 1: HA! Yeah! All that contagion, and a mountain of lawsuits or something..HA!
Broker 2: I just strolled in on Monday morning and bought the fuck out of the market.
Broker 1: Of course...you just had to...... So obvious. Another beer?
Broker 2: Sure.

Orko Silver (OK.v) insider sales (and a few thoughts)

Here's a five year chart for Orko Silver (OK.v):


And here we go with insiders selling the stock:

Orko Silver Corp. (OK)

As of April 20th, 2010
Filing Date Transaction Date Insider Name Ownership Type Securities Nature of transaction # or value acquired or disposed of Unit Price
Apr 20/10 Apr 19/10 Robertson, Linda Direct Ownership Common Shares 10 - Disposition in the public market -10,000 $1.600
Apr 20/10 Apr 15/10 Robertson, Linda Direct Ownership Common Shares 10 - Disposition in the public market -10,000 $1.600
Apr 20/10 Apr 15/10 Robertson, Linda Direct Ownership Common Shares 51 - Exercise of options 20,000 $0.450
Apr 20/10 Apr 15/10 Robertson, Linda Direct Ownership Options 51 - Exercise of options -20,000 $0.450
Apr 14/10 Apr 09/10 Cope, Gary Gordon Direct Ownership Common Shares 10 - Disposition in the public market -12,000 $1.640
Apr 14/10 Apr 08/10 Cope, Gary Gordon Direct Ownership Common Shares 10 - Disposition in the public market -75,000 $1.640


There's nothing conclusive about the above sales, but they do tie in with a post I've wanted to write for a while. OK.v is one of those Siren Song stocks. I've looked at it at least half a dozen times and the story looks strong enough, the JV deal with PAAS and the free ride and this and that. I've taken questions on the stock from mailers more times than i can remember offhand. But when the inevitable deeper DD moment comes along and I start asking round I can never get industry insiders (or at least the ones I listen to and/or trust) to say a good word about the company. The responses are either "no comment" and "I pass on that one", or they're ....hmmm......let's just say not very complimentary towards the management team and leave it at that, cos for some unknown reason I'm feeling diplomatic this morning (let's hope it wears off).

The upshot is that I've never bought OK.v but have always watched it. Not planning on buying it either, especially when insiders think it's a great time to sell. DYODD, dude.

"Justice was delivered late, but it was delivered"

This man will die in jail. Good.

You may not care up there, because.....
....it was a long time ago
....who gives a crap about a few dead Latino lefties anyway?
.....your governments at that time supported the Argentine dictatorship and therefore you're not going to hear much about it from your lapdog media.
...etc
BUT WE CARE A LOT DOWN HERE.

Reynaldo Bignone was sent down for 25 years yesterday (to be served in a "common prison" too, according to the ruling). This post's title line was spoken by the head of the Abuelas de Plaza de Mayo yesterday and IKN agrees. An excellent day for the whole of Latin America. Here's AFP with an EngLang write-up:

BUENOS AIRES — Argentina's last dictator, Reynaldo Bignone, 82, was Tuesday sentenced to 25 years in prison after being found guilty of ordering torture and illegal detentions during his 1982-1983 rule.

Six other officials from that era were also given prison terms of 17 to 25 years at the end of the five-month trial during which relatives of those killed or disappeared brandished photos of their loved ones.

Bignone took power after Argentina's disastrous 1982 war against Britain over the Falkland Islands, and handed the reins over to his elected successor Raul Alfonsin at the end of 1983.

His departure marked the end of decades of repression, turmoil and coups d'etat that characterized Argentina for much of the 20th century.

The court judging the case found Bignone responsible for horrors perpetrated at Campo de Mayo, an army base on the outskirts of the capital that served as an execution and torture center. CONTINUES HERE


UPDATE: More good news. With thanks for the link to reader OS, we note that Uruguay has just slapped down one of its dictator-era scum today. Ex Chancellor in the dictator era Juan Carlos Blanco was this morning sentenced to 20 years behind bars. The guilty verdict was for his involvement in the disappearance of schoolteacher Elena Quinteros in 1976 and was determined to be a "very specially aggravated murder".

Charts of the day are....

....Colombia's Peso, 12 month chart and three month chart.

Hey wow, isn't it strange that all of a suddenly, one of the best performing currencies in the LatAm mix.....

....... is showing a weakening trend?

I wonder what could be causing this?
(no, this is not a photoshop)

But don't worry 'bout it.....just keep on buying those Colombian junior miners folks, cos that's what you've been told to do. I mean, when have the bullshit LatAm ignorant newsletter brigade and the self-serving Canadian brokerages ever got it wrong?

4/20/10

Trading Post (red-blooded edition)


Pan American Silver (PAAS) (PAA.to) up 2.0% at U$25.63. PAAS announced its production results for 1q10 and they were called "mixed" by analysts, probably cos people are still trying to work out whether the death of one miner reported in the quarter is the normal average for PAAS and its pisspoor safety standards or above or below average. But please note that PAAS didn't make mention of the death itself. In fact, it NEVER informs its shareholders of the non-stop injuries and deaths at its mines.

Rio Alto Mining (RIO.v) up 4.9% at $0.86. RIO came out with financing news today and subscribers received analysis in a Flash update on that event in their inboxes before 10am. DYODD.

Dorato Resources (DRI.v) down 3.1% cos a bunch of Ecuadorians are stealing what they think is their gold.

Vena Resources (VEM.to) UNCH at 32c, but the stock is up 6.7% in Lima trading and there's a pretty strong jungledrum that got picked up by a broker friend there and passed this way. Apparently a chunky piece of news is due. Only time will tell if that's good dope.

Joyous News! Settyblog has gone public


Ladies and gentlemen of the LatAm-interested world, you are required by law to add Setty's Notebook to your list of links.

Setty lives in Venezuela and covers the country from a political/financial viewpoint better than anyone I know. He'll say when things are good, he'll say when things are bad. Neither overtly pro or anti Chávez (so govt and opposition stupidity is exposed with equal glee), damned smart when it comes to numbers and to cap it all off funny and highly entertaining to read, too.

Up to now Setty has run a invites-only blog, but he's finally taken the plunge and gone public. So here's the link to his brand new public access blog and go see for yourself why he's the bestest on Venezuela (and other places too).

Fanfare over. Mojitos served. The end.

Who the hell is Erik Townsend?

I'd like to know so that I can shake his hand and say, "Damn straight dude".

Townsend has written an extended article that all GATAsheep need to read and consider. Entitled "Debunking the Post CFTC Precious Metals Fear Mongering Campaign" it looks into the allegations cooked up by the charlatans at GATA about that recent "we've got proof that the silver market is rigged" episode. Townsend's article is detailed and takes in all the angles well so it must be read in its entirety, but here's just one of the header bullet points to give a taste:
"Despite the best efforts of some responsible journalists including Jim Puplava, others including Tyler Durden (ZeroHedge) and Eric King (King World News) have contributed to the misinformation campaign by promulgating GATA’s baseless allegations."
Exactly, Erik. Here finishes off his piece by saying....
If you’re a GATA member, for heaven’s sake hold the leadership accountable for their atrocious handling of this entire affair.
....and I can't agree more with that one, except to add that you're wasting your time and your money by being a member of that clown's brigade. These GATA jokers have pulled the wool over too many eyes for too long. Their self-serving agenda needs to be laid out for all to see. Here's the link to Townsend's excellent and well-researched article again. Necessary reading for all metalheads. Now use the link.

Frank Giustra's trained monkey gets in on the desperate Medoro (MRS.v) pumping

As we've already pointed out here at IKN, Medoro Resources (MRS.v) now finds itself with a hatload of problems regarding its takeover of the Frontino Gold Mine in Colombia. With local unions and the town itself getting legal on Medoro and telling them they cannot possibly be buying the asset because they are the owners and they ain't selling, this one will be dragging through Colombia's courts for years on end.

MRS.v has already tried to throw stardust in the eyes of the masses by wheeling out a Gov't minister or two to tell people the gov't supports Medoro in this fight. Unfortunately what Giustra, Keep and their cronies failed to tell people on that one was the gov't has and will have no say in this matter; it's a legal battle in store and the Colombian courts are (famously) separate and independent of Uribe&Co's way of thinking. This didn't stop The Can of Corn trying to pump the thing a few days ago (as noticed on the blog), but the balloon is getting tired and the deflation picked up speed yesterday:


So what does Franky G do to remedy this? Why, he gets his trained monkey Thom Calandra to make up shit and pump it to the sheep at Stockhouse. Here's what Thom Cassandra wrote yesterday evening to his Tickertrax flock of ignorants:

"More congratulations: Medoro Resources (TSX: V.MRS, Stock Forum) appears to have locked in the Frontino Mine, the pension-troubled yet lush and historic mine below the town of Segovia in Antioquia. Congratulations to consultant Serafino Iacono, who helped engineer the $200 million pending purchase – pursuant to due diligence, Medoro CEO John Hick tells me. We here have been following Medoro as a gateway into the world of Colombia mining since its predecessor at El Marmato, Colombia Goldfields. We own the shares via an ill-timed purchase of Colombia Goldfields shares several years ago at insanely high prices."

Yeah, that's right: the stock slides 8.9% (and was only saved from much worse by a last-minute bailage) but in the weird world of the shill Calandra this is cause for congratulations. He doesn't mention a thing about the legal battle that is already out there and will only get worse; no, this supposedly independent commentator ignores all the opposite side and just runs with the direct party line from his geldmeisters over at Endeavour Fin. Total, one-sided bullshit and a disgraceful exercise in palming off crap to people who don't know better.

At least Cassandra admits the snafu he made on buying the previous Frontino incarnation, Colombia Goldfields. What that shows you is that Cassandra really has no idea of what he's talking about when it comes to the structural company backgrounds of Colombian miners, so even when he proudly announces that he's putting his money where his mouth is (and even then his track record suggests his word is utterly untrustworthy) you have no idea whether you're following him in to a live prospect of just another overhyped POS.

Calandra has the track record of a fraudster and has deeper agendas with big money people, so you'd better be very careful about what he's telling you, dear investor.

Charts of the day are....

.....the one year lines for copper, zinc, lead and nickel, kitco the provider:

Here's lead:
Lead starts on the left at $0.67 and finishes on the right at today's $1.03, so the climb is 53.7%.

Here's zinc:
Zinc starts on the left at $0.65 and finishes on the right at today's $1.08, so the climb is 66%


Here's copper:
Copper starts on the left at $2.03 and finishes on the right at today's $3.53, so the climb is 74%.

Here's nickel:
Nickel starts on the left at $5.20 and finishes on the right at today's $12.44, so the climb is 139%.

So is nickel in its own private bubble (as many suspect) or is it the future of the other BMs? YOU BE THE JUDGE!

4/19/10

A Flash update

A Flash update with a new buy recommendation was sent to subscribers tonight.

Trading Post (early Elmer edition)


It's a touch after 11am local time and the market is overall dull, so I'm going to escape for a couple of hours and treat myself to a plate of fish.

Fortuna Silver (FVI.to) down 9.8% at $2.50. It got whacked by a seller at the bell and hasn't jumped back, which gives value traders a window on a short-term trade methinks. Word is that the FVI great&good are stuck in Europe waiting for a flight out of a very boring city (not naming it). Volcanoes, eh?

Rio Alto (RIO.v) up 5.2% at $0.81 and looking very perky after trading back at that 73c level at the open. Nice volumes too.

Extorre (XG.to) down 5.6% at $2.86. This new spin-out stock has been zooming recently, but has fallen back on the day news comes out on the main asset down South Argy way. Buy the rumour sell the news looks like the story here, but the contents of the NR are strong. They got very good grade (a key positive on smaller deposits) and are eyeing up a 2m oz Au Eq deposit now. Not shabby and we like this a lot more than the Caspiche white elephant.

Focus Ventures (FCV.v) down 1.7% at $0.57. Shhhh...be vewy vewy qwiet.....am huntin' wabbit.

ATW Gold (ATW.v) down 14.3% at $0.12. Hey, why not ask Bob Moriarty why he doesn't pump this any longer. It was his "stock of the year" in 2009.

Mockus wins TV debate

Go Beard!

Last night the candidates for the Presidency of Colombia met in thier second televised debate. According to Caracol radio's survey, 66% of those asked said that Antanas Mockus won out, giving the best answers on many subjects including how to deal with the FARC, education, foreign relations (esp with Chávez) etc.

The dude is on a roll. Here's a link to Colombia Reports' article on the debate, so go find out the details there. For those wanting analysis in Spanish language, this article is pretty good.

Cochabamba Bolivia: Standing Room Only

This week (April 19th to 22nd to be exact) sees Cochabamba hosting the officially entitled "People's World Conference on Climate Change and the Rights of Mother Earth", a conference set up by Dr. Evo Morales after the world class snafu Copenhagen climate conference dissolved into stupidity. To get a bit of background, here's the Beeb en Inglés:

Delegates are gathering in the Bolivian city of Cochabamba for a grassroots alternative to last year's UN climate change summit in Copenhagen.

The meeting will also celebrate the rights of Mother Earth on 22 April.

Bolivian President Evo Morales was one of several leaders who refused to sign the Copenhagen climate change deal.

He is set to use this week's talks to propose a world referendum to ask up to two billion people their views on how to tackle climate change. (continues)


Thing is, the whole conference has snwballed into a major event. Cochabamba was chosen because it's an area of Bolivia that has been hit especially hard by Climate Change (yes dumbasses, it exists....just leave the world temperate zones and find out for yourselves instead of listening to XOM-sponsored crap) but the city only has hotel space for 1,500 visitors at any given moment. The conference has grown and grown and now over 18,000 people are expected to attend. 100 large tents have been set up in the nearby town of Tiquipaya to host meetings and conferences, but the way things are going they may have to double as night-time sleeping quarters. In fact 129 countries have delegates attending, no mean feat for a little dot on the map like Bolivia, so it's going to be a bit of a squeeze, but that just points to the enormous grassroots interest there is in the issue, far away from the normal MSM idiocy you're fed up North.

A final word. Long-established (and pretty big) altwebsite Rabble has several bloggers on the scene and is promising full audio-visual-textual coverage of the four days. Check out that site via this link here.

UPDATE: Paul notes in the comments section (ty dude) that Jim Schultz of The Democracy Center (based in Cochabamba, so no probs for a bed tonight) will be covering the event closely, too. Here's the link.



It's raining golfballs in Buenos Aires


This photo shows the size of the hailstorms that hit part of the Gran Buenos Aires region yesterday afternoon. Between 20 and 30 people were taken to hospital with cuts to the head, an untold number of cars parked outside lost their windscreens and now have pockmarked roofs, all the et ceteras you can imagine.

Here's Clarín on the story in Spanish (with a video linked too).

Chart of the day is.....

...gold, daily candles.
Regarding those prophets of golden doom, we'll leave it to Owly who tells me he has a question to ask:

4/18/10

Post of the week....


....goes to this most excellent article written by RG over at The Mex Files. The subject is that of being a gringo in LatAm and the argument is solid.

A highly recommended read. Here's the link again.

Run Away! Run Away!


Last Friday evening the cream of Peru's military, its Defence Minister, various APRA party bigwigs and local reporters were invited to watch a test of the 'Spike' missile system that Peru bought from its Israeli makers for the sum of U$48m. There's a single short report in English as to what happened next but it really doesn't do the joint full justice. However the AFP dude on the scene wrote a much better copy of what happened in his Spanish language filing and here it is, translated by yours truly.

Panic In Peru Due To Failed Israeli Missile Test: One Congresswoman Injured

Lima, April 17

Panic and a stampede was caused by a failed military test when an Israeli anti-tank missile went off-course from its target and fell close to the area where Peru's military heads and political authorities were watching the test-firing, causing the congresswoman Mercedes Cabanillas to suffer a dislocated shoulder amongst cries of "Hit the deck!" from military personnel.

The Directive for Army War Materials organized the test-firing of two Israeli built Spike missiles (MR/LR) in the presence of the Minister of Defence Rafael Rey, military authorities, members of Congress, journalists and representative of the vendors of the missile system, Raphael. The test took place in Cruz de Hueso, a desert zone some 45km from Peru's capital city, Lima.

In the afternoon one Spike missile for use in daylight was tested without incident, but when it was time to test the night-time missile the artifact only advanced 100m and moved off course towards the watching authorities. The missile fell some 50m from Minister Rey and the other invited guests and although it did not detonate it did provoke a stampede.

Panic ensued amongst the test spectators, who began running in the darkness while military personnel shouted non-stop "Hit the deck! so that the people would be safe. The danger was evident, because even though the projectile did not explode on hitting the ground it continued alight.

The member of Congress and ex-Interior Minister of the current government, Mercedes Cabanillas, was the only injured person when she fell and hit her shoulder while running away to save herself. She is reported to have dislocated a shoulder and will be operated upon this Saturday. "When everyone was running in the dark to protect themselves I took a hard knock. Somebody or something hit me hard", she said.

After the emergency was over, representatives of Raphael offered their apologies for the episode and said that it was due to a technical fault. Minister Rey demanded detailed information about the event, which the Israeli company will present in one week's time. However, the same Minister of Defence said that it was due to, "A technical error and not human error."

This is the first time that the Peruvian Armed Forces have tested Israeli weapons systems in tests open to the press. The missiles were acquired in 2009 as part of a batch of 288, along with 24 launch platforms at a cost of U$48m.


Meanwhile the important line comes at minute 1:57:

Studmuffin gettin tuffin with big oil stuffin

Plenty of people have sent me over links to the "Studmuffin threatens the oil companies" story. that hit yesterday. Here's an extract from the BBC's version:

President Correa said during a televised address on Saturday: "Every day that passes there are millions of dollars going to these companies that should be going to the Ecuadorean state.

"I'm out of patience. We are sending a bill to Congress that would allow for the expropriation of oil fields should the companies not want to sign the new contracts.


Meanwhile here's the IKN view on the gig:
Canelazos served, the end.

The IKN Weekly, out now


IKN50 has just been sent to subscribers. We dissect a mining company's production report and walk through how to make a decent stab at earnings estimates, we talk Mockus, we talk political risks, we talk stocks, we talk copper, we talk Continental Gold (CNL.v). All that and a whole lot more wrapped up in a bunch of randomly chosen words (or it might look that way at first sight).

The IKN Weekly: More fun than a poke in the eye with a pointed stick.