IKN Weekly subscriber message

Just a quick note to IKN Weekly subscribers. Due to an abnormal week (work and personal things have been sapping time) a little more time than normal may be needed to finish up IKN52, out tomorrow. In short, you may find the Weekly hitting your inboxes tomorrow Sunday evening EST instead of the normal Sunday afternoon EST.

Apart from that, life is beautiful. Go sniff some flowers and have a cool weekend.

Endangered dolphins poisoned in Peru

So Waddya know about the Amazonian Dolphin, sometimes known as the Pink Dolphin (for obvious reasons, see above)? Personally, I know they are:

• Freshwater living (found in Peru, Brazil, Ecuador Colombia and even one or two in the Amazon feedrivers of Bolivia)
• Beautiful and friendly (I've been lucky enough to see some up close)
• Grow to three metres long and are very intelligent (their brains are some 40% bigger than human brains by weight)
• Endangered (according to the IUCN (intl union for the conservation of nature))

I also know that there are 20 less examples of these dolphins this morning. That's because clandestine fishermen in Peru decided to poison them so they'd not make holes in their nets and try to eat their illegal catch while they poached the Bazagán lake in Loreto, Peru. The bodies of the 20 dolphins were found dead in the lake this morning.

Viva investment grade. Viva, viva, viva.

Important geological news from The Onion

Geologists: "We May Be Slowly Running Out Of Rocks"

Read the shocking exposé over there (cos i'm not pasting here). You'll be glad you did.

Many thanks to reader MM for the headsup.

Weekend news roundup

Bart weighs in on Iranians in LatAm

The best way for me to catch up on a week's missed news in the LatAm-o-Sphere is to read trusted sources. Here are just a few.

Krupa at Lat/Am Daily notes some BS hoo-hah over Iranians in Nica, while Setty at the Notebook and Gringo Juan over at Maladjusted both note some BS hoo-hah over Iranians in Venezuela. I note large helpings of BS coming out of the right side of the USA. Really wingnutz, is that all you got these days?

Evergreat Bananama Republic shows memory, as it reveals the politico invited over by Panama to hand out press freedom awards is an ex-repressor in Uruguay with a past spattered with human rights mischief.

Trouble down South Mexico way, with a lefty caravan attacked by righties with guns and death resulting. Eschew the MSM versions and get deeper into the issue via The Mex Files (arguably LatAm's best written blog).

In Colombia, Antanas Mockus leads the polls by five points according to the latest batch of surveys. Colombia Reports is strong as ever on the Presidential race and has the details.

An excellent post from Caldwell at I Think Mining. He takes the BP oil spill, adds a little Pebble Mine and asks the question "What is long term?" when it comes to mining. The geological wisdom is captured in one of the conclusion bullets when he writes:

"In the fullness of time all mine waste disposal facilities will flow to the sea–the only issue is the rate at which they do so".

Highly recommended thinkpiece. Go here.

A room with a view (part 3)

The eight hundred and thirty kilo view from an open window owned by reader MF, Albuquerque, New Mexico.

That's a lot of concentrated grass, folks.

Bad news for Louis James of Casey

I see on checking prices tonight that the James dumbass still hasn't got his fill on that ridiculous $2.00 stink bid on Fortuna Silver (FVI.to):

Meanwhile, those that understand the stock better got within $260,000 of its $5.3m record quarterly earnings (your author forecast $5.04m, it turned out to be $5.3m). It's the difference between a no brain buy call and a call to buy using no brains.

The Friday OT: Rolling Stones; Gimme Shelter

For Kevin: Thanks for everything, dude.



From the 'Bridges to Babylon' tour.

still on the road

a quick post from a borrowed computer and a slooow interwebnetpipes connection from the middle of nowhere, LatAm. Just to say that this blog is unlikely to get a further update before Friday evening. Normal service will be resumed as soon as etc etc blah blah.

have a nice week and don't sweat the small stuff, dudes.

On The Road

Sadly but truly, your author has places to greet, people to meet, things to eat and blisters to treat in the next three and a half days. Posting will be light until Friday, but efforts will be made to add a word or two during the trippin'. Catch you later, dudettes and dudes.

Message to Anthona Curic of Versant Partners

You're going to look really really stupid once people realize just how one-dimensional your pisspoor analysis of Fortuna Silver is. Brian Quast of CIBC whups your ass, muchacho.

Go get a job you can do and stop pretending to know about miners, dumbass.

A reader's comment on Mockus

That impressive chart again

Normally, anonymous comments don't make it through here. But this one, just left by a certain Colombian national on the Chart of the Day post below, is worth reading methinks. So here it is:

As a Colombian, I feel elated to see this. This Mockus effect is due in part by the public repudiation of the wrongdoings of the incumbent:
-Mr. Uribe, trying to take active part in the presidential campaign, openly promoting Santos and disqualifying the other candidates.
-The growing outrage about the 'chuzadas' (phone tapping and espionage to selected members of the opposition and the supreme court).
-Santos ultimate responsibility in the case of 'falsos positivos' (extra-judicial killings of civilians to make them appear as guerrilla casualties).
-The failure of 'justicia y paz' process with the paramilitaries, where the victims are unlikely to get proper closure -justice and economic repair.
Let's hope this momentum carries through until the election day.

Let Colombians decide who is their next President. We outside the country can have opinions, but nobody else has the right to decide for them.

Copper

Here's an interesting copper inventory chart from Reuters yesterday:

Interesting how inventory has shifted out of LME warehouses and over to Shanghai bonded ones, innit?

And here's an up-to-date price chart, daily candles:

All we need to do now is to work out what the hell they mean. I look at the price chart and see "holding pattern", not much up or downside. Anyone with a better idea?

Chart of the day is...

...Colombia's presidential election, latest opinion poll out today.


Mockus leads! Here's the source link.

Black country gossip

Hey, did you know that Ridgway bought 100,000 shares of FCV.v last Thursday? It's not on Canadian Insider yet, but if you click on this link Tuesday (i.e. tomorrow) you'll see it filed.

The latest from the liars at Ecometals (EC.v)

Hey, remember back on April 8th when Ecometals (EC.v) wrote this in relation to the delayed, delayed and delayed again sale of the Condor property in Ecuador?

"Ecometals Limited ("Ecometals") has agreed to a further extension to the closing of the SPA with Alca Gold Limited ("Alca") and its financial backers for their acquisition of Ecometals' shares in Condormining Corporation S.A. and Condorview S.A. for US$9,000,000 to be satisfied in cash. Both parties have agreed their intention to extend the closing with cash payment on 23rd April, failing which Ecometals will terminate the Agreement."

Well, guess what? They've just come out and proven themselves liars by adding yet another 60 day period on this ridiculous charade. Extracted from here:

"The closing payment was not made on 23 April 2010. However, Alca has requested a further extension supported by a proposal to make an immediate US$1,000,000 payment into an account with an escrow agent as a sign of their commitment to closing the transaction within 60 days. A non refundable payment of US$100,000 will then be transferred from the escrow account to Ecometals Limited and a further non refundable transfer of US$100,000 after 30 days. Both payments will be offset against the final purchase price if the closing transaction is completed. If the transaction is not completed, then the balance of the US$1 million will be returned to Alca."

But oh yes, these liars are gonna make you all rich, right? The ex-CEO of EC.v Slaughter tries and fails four times to raise the cash to buy a property from the current EC.v....and then asks for yet more time....and EC.v directly contradicts previous statements and gives him more time.....and you'll still believe them, won't you? Please leave by the door marked "Suckaz".

An interesting afternoon over at Fortuna Silver (FVI.to)

The Fortuna Silver (FVI.to) pre-feas study came out this afternoon (link here). Take a look at the intraday chart and take a wild guess as to the exact time of publication:

today is "intraday chart day", it seems

Message to subscribers: We'll be taking a careful look at the contents of the PFS news release in an update that will plop into your inbox later tonight. Right now I'm off for a siesta.

Trading Post (a river in Egypt edition)

Ventana Gold (VEN.to) down 1.5% at $9.47 and once again the morphine of denial makes everything all right for longs. After trading down to the low $8s this morning, VEN released a PR saying "nothing to do with us" and the stock actually traded up on the day for a moment, thanks to the soothing words of CEO Orr. Never mind that the unpredicable local government might find some-or-other reason to slap VEN down in the same way that it surprised the merry hell out of GSL this morning (well, according to the GSL official response they were surprised, but let's leave that one alone for the moment), because all you need to do with a bunch of lapdog longs (or in CompanySpeak "loyal and valued shareholders") is say "sshhh, relax, it's all going to be fine" and things calm down immediately. These fools still think Colombia is like a southern version of British Columbia.

Sierra Minerals (SIM.to) up 7.6% at $0.36. One we haven't checked in on for a while, SIM has made a bit of ground recently. Still not making much in the way of profits so far but always there with a "it's gonna be great soon, just you watch". So I watch. but I don't own.

Focus Ventures (FCV.v) up 2.1% at $0.48 after trading as low as 40c last week on the capitulation rush for the door. Still life in this stock, it seems.

Greystar Resources (GSL.to) down 41.9% at $3.78. The intrday chart for GSL is interesting, as it shows some pretty classic market pyschology.

• first we have "oh my god we're all gonna die!!!" at the opening bell.
• then we have "it can't be that bad!" and the stock gets bought up on the dead cat bounce.
• now we have the inevitable "oh crap, it really is that bad" selloff. By the way, residual value on GSL is around $1.50 a share. I think you'll need to remember that number going forward if you feel like trading this stock.

Denial is not just a river in Egypt.

Chart riddle

Gary over at BiiWii sent out an update to his subscribers this morning (I'm fortunate enough to be on his NFTRH list, the dude runs a most excellent service) and one of the charts featured was this one.

Pretty bullish looking, methinks. What you thinks? By the way, the only difference between the above and the one Gary sent is that Gary's had the name of the company and the prices clearly featured. Meanwhile, IKN subbers will know the company as the last one featured in 'Market Watching' yesterday. DYODD, dude.

Mo' Greystar (GSL.to)

GSL.to five day chart: Is there a problem, officer?

The whole Greystar (GSL.to) news release is right below on the next post, but I think this little passage from the DJNW wire report (sorry no link yet, this is off the wires) really sums up just how deep in the doo-doo Greystar is:

"Greystar said the ministry wants the new Angostura EIA to adjust the occupied area to an elevation below 3,200 meters. As currently designed, almost all of Angostura's facilities and infrastructure are at a higher elevation, Greystar said, and half of the proposed open pit is above 3,200 meters.

"It said the request would require the Angostura project to be completely redesigned, "including identifying and acquiring new land positions to house displaced facilities and initiate new environmental base line studies." Greystar said it hasn't had the opportunity to determine the feasibility of redesigning the project, but that the requirement "will severely impact the project schedule and may have a material effect on its economic viability."

It's like the Colombian government suddenly says, "Hey dudes, you know all that stuff you got above 3,200masl?...Y'know, the stuff we said would be ok to put there and the great big fat hole you were planning to dig there? Yeah, well....it's like....errrr.... we've changed our minds. You can't do that."

So what stunt are these government suits going to pull next, eh? People investing in Ventana Gold (VEN.to) and Galway Resources (GWY.v) just next door have obviously thought that question through this morning already:

How they laughed at my constant "avoid Colombia" calls. How they chorlted when I told them Colombian political risk was being wildly underestimated by the junior mining community. How they guffawed when I pointed out that investing in a country without a tradition of formal, large-scale modern mining is a risky business. How you feeling now, newsletter-writing dumbasses? Where's Frank "Colombia Risk Free" Holmes and Thom "I know Colombia" Cassandra when you need them, eh? Do me a favour you two (and all the other ignorant country pumpers) and...

Mining PRs and the Ottotrans™, Part 17

Today's example is from Greystar Resources (GSL.to). No big lead-in on this one, let's get to the point:

This is what they wrote:

Greystar Resources Ltd. (the "Company") (TSX:GSL - News; AIM:GSL) announced that the Ministry of the Environment, Housing and Territorial Development (MAVDT) has requested a new Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) to be filed in respect to the development of an open pit gold-silver mine at the Company's Angostura project in Colombia. MAVDT has requested that the new EIA conform to new regulation Law 1382 of 2010 (Modified Mining Code) which requires that mining and exploration activity must be excluded from the "Paramo" ecosystem.

Paramo is an ecosystem that consists of mostly glacier formed valleys and plains with lakes, peat bogs and, wet and dry grasslands intermingled with shrub lands and forest patches. The definition to determine the area of Paramo is that established by the Alexander Von Humboldt Biological Resources Research Institute (www.humboldt.org) in Colombia. While the definition of Paramo is determined by fauna, flora and other ecological categories, it is also defined by elevation.

MAVDT has requested that the new Angostura EIA adjust the occupied area to an elevation below 3,200 metres. As currently designed, almost all the project facilities and infrastructure are at a higher elevation than 3,200 metres. In addition, half of the proposed open pit resides above 3200 metres. MAVDT's request would require the Angostura project to be completely redesigned: including, identifying and acquiring new land positions to house displaced facilities and initiate new environmental base line studies. At this juncture, the Company has not had the opportunity to determine the feasibility of redesigning the Angostura project to comply with MAVDT's request. However this requirement will severely impact the project schedule and may have a material effect on its economic viability.

The original Angostura EIA was filed with MAVDT on Dec 22, 2009 before the modification of the Mining Code on February 9, 2010. At the time of the filing, Greystar was led to believe that the Modified Mining Code would not apply to the Angostura project. The request by MAVDT for a redesign of the project and a new EIA was not expected or anticipated by the Company.

Greystar has begun the process of filing an appeal of the notification from MADVT. MADVT must respond to the appeal within fifteen (15) working days.

Greystar has worked diligently and to the highest environmental standards for more than 15 years to develop the Angostura project. The International Finance Corporation (IFC) is the Company's largest shareholder. To date, the Company has spent approximately CDN $135 million and the Company employs 350 people.

A Preliminary Feasibility Study (PFS) was completed describing all the areas of mining activity as well as the efforts made to minimize environmental impacts particularly in the Paramos. The PFS envisions a project with US$1 billion in capital expenditures and US$3 billion in operating expenditures over the life of the project. The project will employ 1,500 people during construction and 850 people during its 15 year mine life. The PFS was used to develop the EIA according to the terms of reference issued by the MAVDT.

Greystar is in the midst of completing a Definitive Feasibility Study (DFS) on the Angostura project that is expected to be published in the second half of 2010. In addition the Company has begun the process of securing US$650 million in project finance from international sources.

Greystar is committed to developing the Angostura project using best industry practices in social and environmental stewardship. Through its association with the IFC, the company has brought objective guidance to this commitment. Greystar will continue to work with the Colombian Government to demonstrate that the Angostura project can deliver exceptional economic returns for all Colombians while allowing the Paramos ecosystem to flourish.

Greystar will host a telephone conference call for investors and analysts on Monday, April 26th, at 8:00 a.m. PDT (11:00 a.m. EDT) to discuss the request by the Colombian Government for a new Angostura environmental impact assessment. Steve Kesler, Director, Fred Felder, Executive Vice President and Geoff Chater, Vice President Corporate Development of Greystar will take questions. The conference call may be accessed by dialing toll-free 1-866-223-7781 in Canada and the United States, or 1-416-641-6117 in the Toronto area and internationally. The conference call will be archived for later playback and may be accessed by dialing 1-416-695-5275 or 1-800-408-3053 and entering the pass code 7108410. The archived playback will be available until May 10, 2010 at 11:59 p.m. EDT.

About Greystar Resources Ltd.

And this is what it means:

OH SHIT, WE'RE SCREWED

disclosure: no position in GSL.to (you think i'm nutso or something?)

Fortuna Silver (FVI.to): How do you write a roll-on-drums SFX in letters?

Probably something like "BRRRRRRRRRMMMMMMM!!!"

Anyway, it's 8:04am and while the drums are still rolling, let's check on the 12 month chart for FVI, because......

...if you look very very closely, you may be able to spot a trend.

Charts of the day are....

...copper and oil, monthly charts.

There's a single big difference between the charts and it's marked up there. As for similarities, there are many (ok, one has been a 200% winner and the other a 300% winner...split hairs if you like). However it occurs to me that the biggest thing copper and oil have in common is that even though they are two commodities in great demand, the world tries to deny its addiction to them both.

Your 12-point plan starts with "do not worry if copper drops back to $3/lb".

Peru's metals production in the first quarter of 2010 sucked

Here are the charts for Peru's five major metals exports:

Yup, 2010 royally sucks so far, dudes. Just the YoY drop in copper alone is U$97m in lost revenues (assuming an average of U$7,000/MT for the stuff).

The thing about economic growth is that it doesn't come along automatically. Despite what Peru's mining industry obviously believes, you tend to need to produce more over a certain time period if you want to grow.

Santos vs Mockus

Of all the charts featured in IKN51, I think this one is my favourite.


Meanwhile, for those of you versed in the tongue of Cervantes, this link is a good report on how the Colombian election is shaping up.

The IKN Weekly, out now

IKN51 has just gone out to subscribers. It has words in it.

Good news and bad news from Aguascalientes, Mexico

Here's the good news:



Here's the bad news.