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7/24/10

Holy Crap! I actually agree with Greg Weeks on a Venezuela issue

The Colombia/Venezuela FARC spat, the fallout, the timing. Here's an extract of what Weeks sez and it passes the smelltest easily:
A more plausible argument is that Alvaro Uribe is doing this on purpose right before he leaves office, thus leaving Santos in the position of making nice with Hugo Chávez from a position of strength. Santos has already made a point of talking diplomatically, and thus far seems much less antagonistic than Uribe with regard to Venezuela. Uribe will take all the heat, and Santos can calm things down.

Full post here.

A room with a view (part 13) summer vacs edition

File this one under "some guys get all the luck". Let's just hand it over to reader 'DM' in his own words:
"....in Bangkok on Koh Samui enjoying 5 days at the 4 star Sala Samui due to winning the Travel and Leisure Asia edition monthly grand sweepstakes award."

Hey, thanks for the summershots, people. Keep them coming and at this rate we could keep this going til Labor Day.

7/23/10

The Friday OT: Monty Python; Galaxy Song

An education in itself.



But the last line is the one you should really remember.

Trading Post (faking stress edition)


B2Gold (BTO.to) up 3.4% at $1.52 and was up more earlier, with the market liking its move to cash in on Kupol. Heavy volume traded, 7.3m and counting. Here's Haywood's call on the Kinross deal.

Antares Minerals (ANM.v) up 1.9% at $2.66 on fair volumes, the market liking last night's news on Haquira, too. We'll be talking more on this one in the Weekly. ConfCall about to start.

Ventana Gold (VEN.to) up 0.5% at $6.73. Up a touch today, but VEN continues in its lacklustre funk. True for Calif Vetas neighbours Galway (GWY.v) (79c, was plenty over a loonie recently) and Greystar (GSL.to) ($3.83, but knocked back by a downwards revision in project economics more than anything else) too. Colombia not so hot now?

Pediment (PEZ.to) UNCH at $1.08 and still flitting around this new trading range. Our buy price hasn't hit yet, so waiting on the sidelines til then.

TheNewCrystallex (EC.v) at 16c...still waiting for those apologies, dumbasses.

Brent Cook talks gold exploration

Here's the link to eight minutes and thirty-four seconds of Brent Cook getting grilled on gold miners, exploration, places he likes, places he doesn't like. Good stuff, metalheads.

"Today I settle all family business"


And by the looks of the chart, it needed settling:

South American Silver (SAC.to): How has the company year gone so far?

Aha! By the looks of the mailbag this morning, it seems that South American Silver (SAC.to) retail holders have just begun to work out they've been played for patsies. So far the mails are more indignant and denial-laden (it's not just a river in Egypt after all) but I'm sure the bile and hatred chapters will be along soon enough, which usually 3 to 4 weeks before the odd one or two that then admit they'd been wrong about the stock (the haters never write back and apologize, btw...i wonder why that is? :-).

click to enlarge

So to celebrate the start of those scales falling from their eyes, here's a chart that explains what's been going on in the stock year to date. More details on those Bolivian rule changes to come can be found right here.

Bolivia: The mopping-up continues

The pride of Ireland

Hey, remember back a year or so ago when US-sponsored far-right wing racists tried to start a civil war in Bolivia? Yeah, seems so long ago now, what with this habit of winners being able to write history books and losers (i.e. you guys up North) preferring to forget about their humiliating failures.

So anyway, another key player in the Santa Cruz illegality was finally tracked down and apprehended in La Paz. Here's the Erbol newswire (translated) with the story:

Ex-Right Hand Man of Branko Marinkovic Apprehended in La Paz

La Paz, July 22 (Erbol): Juan Kudelca Zalles, ex-right hand man of Branco Marinkovic, fue arrest on Thursday in La Paz due to his alleged connections with the terrorist group led by Eduardo Rósza Flores that was broken up on April 16th 2009 in Santa Cruz.

"Indeed Mr. Kudelca has been detained and in the next few hours will be presented to the judiciary as well as the elements or evidence that connects him (to the terrorist group) in a preliminary hearing" said the case procurator, Marcelo Soza in a brief press conference in La Paz.

In a previous declaration to authorities and media, Kudelca revealed that his ex boss Marinkovic used him to deliver money to Eduardo Rózsa in sealed envelopes.

"I took Branko Marinkovic's money to La Torre. On one of those occasions, Rolando Justiniano asked me to take the money to a journalist, Germán (....) who was in fact Rózsa. At that time I was not aware of this. I saw the man twice", said Kudelca in a previous declaration.

According the the government, the elite group named La Torre was created by the Santa Cruz prefecture during the first mandate period of prefect Rubén Costas and collected at least U$40m for its plan for autonomy, of which U$6m were apparently diverted to sustained the foreign mercenaries headed up by Rózsa.

But the now dead Michael Dwyer said they were just doing "a bit o' dis, a bit 'o dat". At the time you believed him, too (and I have the hatemail to prove "dat" one).

Chart of the day is...

.....copper daily candles, because today's a day that copper matters.


Not only because the metal seems to be knocking on the door of a mini-breakout, but mainly because of this: I know what I'll be doing at 1pm EST today.

Conference Call

Antares will hold an investor conference call on Friday July 23, at 1:00 PM (EST) to discuss the results of the PEA and respond to questions from interested parties. To access the call, please dial:

Canada and USA Toll-free: 1-866-838-1265

Outside Canada and USA: +1-416-915-8110

Passcode: 64187

7/22/10

The Jeremy Grantham 2q10 GMO Letter

Read it, it's excellent. On things like the recent outperformance of low quality stocks, he eloquently puts into words things that this lesser mortal just manages to feel in his bones.

Jeremy Grantham: Q2 2010 Letter

I just happened.....

....to be hanging over at the Twatter account when Bina retwatted this in my vague direction. And I like it. So here it is, filed under 'OT'.

Taken at an Alaskan bookstore, or so it's told. Secondhand shelf.

Real men don't eat salad.....

...but they do break down in tears during TV interviews.



Lula goes into tearduct overdrive from the 2:00 point onwards in this interview aired last night on Brazil TV. It's not the first time he's cried in public like this, either. His excuse? "I think I'm getting old". Damn, if only more politicos felt for their country in the same way.

Mo' U

Further to the random musings on Uranium (U) from this humble scribe earlier in the week, the Globe & Mail has this story to offer. Here's one sentence extracted:

"Scarcity of the resource is not expected to be an issue, even with rising demand."

Those charts earlier this week seem to agree. Worth a read.

biiwii

So this post over at Biiwii comes to my attention, which demands a quick word methinks

To start with, there's been an ongoing barb-fest between Gary and I about the benefits (or not) of technical analysis for as long as we've known each other, it's nothing new. Also it's hardly an original theme, as if I happen to disagree with Gary about the usefulness or otherwise of charting it's nothing much more than a personalization of an old, old market argument that has gone on since forevertime and will not stop, as there are plenty more than just these two marketwatchers that squabble over this one.

But more importantly...much more importantly, Gary is one of the very few people out there who has a opinion worth listening to when it comes to charts. There are all sorts of chartists out there, nearly all of whom get my attention in nanoseconds, but Gary is very very different. Away from the surface banter, he and I swap thoughts and opinions on companies and come from our differing viewpoints and I'm damned sure that I respect everything he says about a stock price because I've learned how good the guy is.

It's not about the chart, it's about the interpretation of the chart. That's exactly the same as considering a company from a fundy viewpoint, from its results, balance sheet, production data etc. You can do all that but if you can't interpret the raw data correctly then it's all a waste of time. When it comes to TA any old fool can look at a squiggly line and form an opinion, but it takes a lot more knowledge and graft to get those opinions to be consistently correct. I honestly don't know how Gary does what he does and quite frankly I care not about trying to learn. What I do know is that the dude is the smartest I know at charts and has the winning track record to prove it. And you should definitely be a subscriber to his Weekly report by now because it's a best of breed publication.

I know where he's coming from and he knows where I'm coming from. So if there are people out there "worried" about the blogsnark, then do yourself a favour and find something more important to worry about. There's no issue here, Gary BiiWii rocks, period.

Caring for shareholders' wellbeing, Great Panther Silver (GPR.to) style

There's nothing that truly moves markets in the insider trades noted below because in the end they're not much more than small. Small as in absolute size and small as in small-minded, too.


Great Panther Silver Limited (GPR)

As of July 21st, 2010
Filing Date Transaction Date Insider Name Ownership Type Securities Nature of transaction # or value acquired or disposed of Unit Price
Jul 21/10 Jul 21/10 Burne, Malcolm Alec Direct Ownership Options 51 - Exercise of options -100,000 $0.450
Jul 21/10 Jul 21/10 Burne, Malcolm Alec Direct Ownership Common Shares 10 - Disposition in the public market -8,000 $0.710
Jul 21/10 Jul 21/10 Burne, Malcolm Alec Direct Ownership Common Shares 10 - Disposition in the public market -92,000 $0.700
Jul 21/10 Jul 21/10 Burne, Malcolm Alec Direct Ownership Common Shares 51 - Exercise of options 100,000 $0.450
Jul 16/10 Jul 15/10 Kopcheff, John Direct Ownership Options 51 - Exercise of options -100,000 $0.450
Jul 16/10 Jul 15/10 Kopcheff, John Direct Ownership Common Shares 10 - Disposition in the public market -8,500 $0.740
Jul 16/10 Jul 15/10 Kopcheff, John Direct Ownership Common Shares 10 - Disposition in the public market -61,500 $0.730
Jul 16/10 Jul 15/10 Kopcheff, John Direct Ownership Common Shares 10 - Disposition in the public market -30,000 $0.720
Jul 16/10 Jul 15/10 Kopcheff, John Direct Ownership Common Shares 51 - Exercise of options 100,000 $0.450
We see directors Burne and Kopcheff exercise 100,000 options each at 45c then immediately punt them to the market, perhaps cos there's a new round of "incentive" (haha) options about to be doled out to the lucky ones at director and these guys want to clear the decks. But doesn't it strike you as plain cheap of these people? They're much more interested in coining in a quick sub $30k payday than looking out for the wellbeing of shareholders and maintaining interest in the stock price. After all, on July 21st Burne's sales made up a touch under half the day's total volume traded in GPR and on the 15th, the 100k sold by Kopcheff was nearly all the 105,600 shares sold that day....you think that's good for the share price?

This is the kind of two-bit approach that turns serious people away from BS junior miners. These guys should tattoo "Screw you retail suckers" on their foreheads and be done with it.

Coca Colla update


Back in December 2009, this humble corner of cyberspace covered the story of Coca Colla, Bolivia's fizzy drink that has coca leaves as one of its main ingredients and the country's homegrown answer to TheRealThing.

So the burning question on everybody's lips today must be, "Hey Otto, how's that Coca Colla doing in the marketplace, dude?". Yessiree a very good question, so let's hand over to Iguazu Noticias for details (translated):

Coca Colla, Bolivia's Energy Drink
The product, made with coca leaves as a main ingredient, is distributed in half litre plastic bottles at a unit cost of 10 Bolivianos (U$1.40) and is produced and marketed by a private company connected with coca producers. The drink is made with coca extract with carbonated water, sugar, caffeine, natural flavourings, authorizaed colours and preservatives.

According to Víctor Ledezma Fuentes, director of Coca Colla, current production at the bottling plant in Santa Cruz, 1,000km South-East of La Paz, is two thousand half litre bottles per day and is distributed to markets in La Paz, Cochabamba and Santa Cruz.

The production company is owned by the Social Organization for the Industrialization of Coca (Organización Social para la industrialización de la Coca), made up of some 9,000 coca farmers in the Chapare region of Bolivia in the department of Cochabamba and the Yungas region in subtropical La Paz.

The company plans to install a second bottling plant with capacity to produce 8,000 bottles per day as "There are orders from all over the world", according to Ledezma.

At the moment, Coca Cola and Pepsi Cola are under State investigation due to exclusivity contracts signed with commercial outlets and risk losing their operation licences.

The result: Coca Colla, having just last week seen its official unveiling as a commercial product, seems to be a big hit with plans to bump production up from 2k to 10k bottles per day. I'll drink to that.


Rio Alto (RIO.v) in last weekend's IKN Weekly


Last weekend's edition of The IKN Weekly (IKN63) featured (amongst plenty other things) write-ups on several company meetings that happened during last week's roadtrip. One of those was at the nerve centre of Rio Alto Mining (RIO.v) and here's what subscribers got to find out last Sunday. Since then we had the news through that RIO.v has been awarded its key environmental permit and sure enough the stock traded strongly yesterday on that news. DYODD, but also file this one under 'subscribers knew'.

Rio Alto Mining (RIO.v)

The meeting at RIO.v was outstanding. Present were President & COO Alex Black, Peru country manager Jaime Soldi (driving force in the company) and CFO Anthony Hawkshaw (the guy who really knows the purse strings). The main takeaway was the very high level of confidence exuded by the RIO.v team as regards the months ahead as they move to production. We talked about the main points of the project and how they were already doing what they could on a “pre-construction” level before the environmental and construction permits were emitted. On those scores, the company has fielded all observations made by the government of Peru and the company sees no reason to expect any problems. This was as far as they could really go with positive statements on permit timings that are, in the end, out of their control, but I’d like to add that on a personal opinion level and having watched permitting procedures go through the bureaucratic stages in Peru on several occasions, all this permitting procedure needs is a little (and not a lot) more time. Basically, it’s a lock and it’s going to happen.

As for the somewhat delayed resource study done by Coffey, we can expect that to be published “soon”. Again, the delays seem to be nothing of a substantive nature and rather the technical, procedural side of things that have to be waded through before the relevant authorities allow a report to go public.

Community-wise, relationships are reported as good. Money-wise, the CFO looked me in the eye and said that there’s no more money needed and there are no more equity raisings being considered for 2010....they won’t even start considering a strategic placement before La Arena starts operating and in the words of Alex Black, by that time next year “Rio Alto will be a completely different company”. Regarding the timeline to production, the company expects “mid 1q11” to be when the first pour happens and commercial production levels will follow on from that very quickly. Given a reasonable result from the permitting people that timeline will be achieved. Tight as it might seem right now. Again, confidence exudes.

The bottom line is that I trust my own judgment when it comes to juniors and the people that run them. From the numbers, from the people and from the newsflow about to run through the market regarding RIO, this author thinks the current 70c-or-abouts prices for RIO to be an absolute steal. As mentioned in last week’s Flash update I’ve added yet again to my position in RIO.v and it’s now a pretty big one compared to others. But once all the usual caveats are applied (gold price collapse, nuclear war, OhMyWe’reAllGonnaDie, etc) this stock today is one that needs its long argument banged on the table...and hard. I’m very close to upgrading it to a “Top Pick” on the back of last week’s meeting and its expected newsflow to come, but for the moment we’ll stick with the fact that I left that meeting then wrote “I’m buying more” to you subscribers about an hour later....and then did just that.

RIO.v is cheap. Buy some or buy some more because you will not regret doing so. Table-banging over, thank you for your patience.


Chart of the day is.....

....The CEPAL/ECLAC GDP growth estimates for LatAm states 2010, as per this month:

click to enlarge

Source material here or here from the official eclac/cepal front page. Read it all yourself, click the chart to enlarge, consider the comparatives. In the end Brazil wins, Haiti doesn't.

By the way, further out eclac/cepal is forecasting Haiti and Chile as 2011's winners.

7/21/10

Andean (AND.to) (AND.ax): Seize the day (and the cash)


Well believe it or not but this humble scribe was looking at the action in Andean Resources (AND.to) (AND.ax) today and thinking, "Funny....kinda non-reaction to the excellent drill news first on Monday...then big bounce Tuesday on volume and brokerage pumpation....now an early doors sell-off......I wonder if they're about to run a financing?". And waddya know, Joe, right after the bell we get to find out about a very hefty CAD$234.5m bought deal, led up by BMO and RBC with all their pals in tow. Here are a few details, so you don't have to click thru:

  • TYPE OF ISSUE: Bought Deal
  • LEAD: BMO Capital Markets (24.0%), RBC Capital Markets (24.0%)
  • OTHER UNDERWRITERS: CIBC (20.0%), Paradigm Capital Inc. (8.0%), UBS Securities Canada Inc. (8.0%), Dundee Securities Corporation (4.0%), TD Securities Inc. (4.0%), Credit Suisse Securities (Canada), Inc. (2.0%), Euroz Limited (2.0%), Haywood Securities Inc. (2.0%), Patersons Securities Limited (2.0%)
  • Size: 70,000,000 common shares C$234,500,000
  • Price: $3.35 per Share
  • Sales Commission: $0.08 per Share
  • Settlement: August 11, 2010
  • Use of Proceeds: The net proceeds will be used to advance the exploration and development of the Cerro Negro project in Argentina and for general working capital purposes.

Then there's a bunch of other details, if you care enough. This is a big bot deal going on in the supposed summer doldrum period, folks, and adds to the $76m AND.to reported at bank in its last balance sheet. Meanwhile, the Houses get to suck up the 70m X 8c/share commish, which works out as.....errr.....a very lot.

Trading Post (Enthuse your cubism edition)




Rio Alto Mining (RIO.v) up 11.4% at $0.78. Attentive market watchers would have noticed elevated volumes in this stock the last few days, coming just before this chunk of very good news in the stock. IKN will have more on RIO tomorrow morning, so watch this space.

Freeport (FCX) up 2.5% at U$65.93. Now you guys following junior intraday trading worry about whether $3/lb Cu is a good thing or a bad thing. Ask Adkerson and you'll hear a very simple answer.

Nautilus Minerals (NUS.to) down 9.3% at $1.76. I've said all there is to say about the blatant fraud going on around this stock, instigated by the treacherous Porter Stansberry and with full cahoots of the management at NUS. So I'll just leave it to our friend owly to comment on today's drop:
People that deserve to be in jail, NUS.to edition. True example of market scum.

Brazil's Presidential Election: Latest Poll

Out today is the latest polling for the big regional election at the end of this year and Dilma is apparently kicking José's butt. Here's the chart:


Here's the source if you want more info (like for example how Dilma beats José 49% to 37% in a 2nd round runoff). But the main takeaway is that Lula's dauphine is making this job her own right now.

UPDATE: Wise words from our Brazilian pal drunkeynsian left in the comments section:
Otto, the poll you mentioned was conducted only in the Ceará state, which has a little more than 4% of Brazilian voters. As you probably know, Ceará is in the Northeast, where Lula's candidate is expected to win by a large margin. Nationwide the race is tighter.
True, but* it's still a significant poll that affirms Dilma's momentum. She's still kickin' his butt.

*dontcha hate it when you see those two words together on a blerg?

Flash

A Flash update just went out to IKN Weekly subscribers concerning good news about one of our favoured stocks. Subscriber "roussi", the message bounced back from your box and failed to get through, please get in touch.

Fortunately, not Venezuela

If the following had happened in Venezuela you'd have heard about it, y'see. Mary BatShit O'Grady, Jackson Diehl, that dumbass Oppenheimer, man they'd be queuing up to patiently explain about the instituationalized corruption, the pervasive drug money running the show and how the President of the country is totally to blame. But no, fortunately for the morons that pass as LatAm commentators in English MSM, the following happened in Peru and not Venezuela. And we know that Peru is the bright new horizon of wonderfullness so there's no criticizing allowed.

Last week, the acting President of the Ancash region (northern Peru, run by drug mafia, über corrupt, self-serving politicos), a certain José Luis Sánchez Milla, was murdered in a somewhat confusing episode when his car was attacked and he was shot dead. Some people say it was a political assassination, others a robbery that went wrong.

So last night, the person chosen to replace the dead governor, Ezequiel Nolasco Campos, was relaxing at home when three people dressed as police officers burst in, shot him five times (he's in a serious condition in hospital right now) and also killed his 24 year old son in the firefight.

But like I say, it's Peru so this will only get reported in reactionary blogs by people you fools think lefty. No matter that Peru's cocaine trade is now overtaking Colombia's as the world's biggest, there can't possibly be corruption due to that, either. Just keep blaming Venezuela for everything, dumbasses. So move along now..nothing to see here...

Minera Andes (MAI.to): 2q10 production at San José sucks less than 1q10

Minera Andes (MAI.to) along with operator Hochschild (HOC.L) this morning reported the production numbers for their San José silver/gold mine in Argentina. Here are the straight production numbers stacked up against previous quarters for comparison.

This is the silver count:
This is the gold count:
Remember that only 49% of the above production is due to MAI.to, with 51% going to HOC. The overall is that the number don't suck quite as much as they did in 1q10, but they're still not great. Production ran at plenty less than the permitted maximum for the mine due to underground issues (check the NR for more), which has been an ongoing problem at the asset.

On the other hand, looking at the price chart.....
.....and assuming the normal cash costs etc for the quarter, there may be a bit of upside in this stock when the revenues and results are announced next month. I have my own ideas on that one from the model and will pontificate in the next Weekly, out Sunday. Meanwhile, DYODD, dude.

PS: Recall the big downside to this stock is that The Zeds over at the Can of Corn like it and pump it. It'll all end in tears, y'know....

Copper looks a bit stronger

Dr. Copper has been doing quite well these last couple of days and keeping North of that seemingly important $3 number. Where's the next stop? Well, my uneddycated nose smells $3.10 and $3.20 as resistance but after that some sort of blue sky on the upside. On the downside, $2.90 has been a fairly strong floor....so far.

People, my personal call on copper right now was described in a Weekly two issues ago as "between leery and bearish", which still applies today. But there have been some mumblings about China paying a premium to spot for immediate cathode delivery in the last couple of weeks, too. I've never been a "perma" anything, neither bear nor bull. Markets change and it's only the King Canute types that don't get that. So yep, still leery/bearish on copper, but also out there looking for enough evidence to prove myself wrong. DYODD, dudettes and dudes.

Freebies.....mmmmmm...freebies

Get your free sub of Global Finance (i get this one myself, as a matter of fact..it's a pretty good monthly read) by clicking here. Easy stuff and totally free with no catches or commitments. It's what you call a good old fashioned fair deal.

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Chart of the day is...

...the Lima Stock Exchange IGBVL "general" index, used by this author to track mining companies in energing markets.


What me worried?

7/20/10

Uranium

This humble corner of cyberspace has noted that one of the periodic (geddit?) upturns in the hype that gets thrown at Uranium is underway again, with chatter on how China is "stockpiling like crazy" and chartists pointing to a tiny eensy weensy little recent upmove in the spot price of the stuff and calling it a "breakout". Yeah right. I'm yet again reminded of how studying charts is much easier than learning.

Talking of charts here are a couple of my own, generated from data supplied by those nice (and industry standard benchmark reliable) people at the World Nuclear Association. First up is the production of U (not U308, but actual tonnage of the metal which is lower) in the period 2003 to 2009. The main takeaway here is that, unbeknown to many, there's been a pretty decent pop in production recently. Last year saw North of 50KMT produced, which supplied 76% of the world market for U (breeder/reprocessor reactors and old nuke warheads make up a lot of the gap, which is pretty normal).

click to enlarge

So in passing let's check on the company breakdown of U production, where we see that in 2009 just ten companies supplied 89% of the world's mined uranium. That's a concentrated market, people.

click to enlarge

So now to the main point of this post. The chart below is a kind of composite thing and needs a bit of explanation. Firstly, we have the total mined production of U for 2003 to 2009. Then we have the WNA forecast for U production in 2010, as this year that body expects another 5kmt or so to be added to last year's big supply hike and around 55,000MT produced. On researching for this note I've seen estimates as high as 57,000MT in fact, but let's go with this world body number as our benchmark.

click to enlarge

The third thing to note is that end column for the year 2015. This is a separate calculation and based on the WNA upper forecast for uranium demand in 2015. Again, there are forecasts and forecasts but we're going with an upper limit number of 77,000MT demand for U in that year, according to people that follow the industry very closely indeed. From that, we assume that mined uranium accounts for 80% of supply for that year (recall, in 2009 it was 76% and that was a high number relative to previous years too) which brings us to our projected needed supply from mines of 61,600MT.

The point of adding that last 2015 column is to show that there's no real big supply problem in the works here. Normal run-of-industry expansion between now and then needs no stretching of the imagination to supply what will be needed. Especially when you consider things like the recent Ukrainian decision to decommision a pile of its nukes, or trifles such as the brand new uranium mine being built by Areva in Niger that'll be good for 5000 tonnes per year as from 2012 onwards.

The bottom line is that there's seemingly no supply squeeze on the horizon and it doesn't matter what the market shillers might think. Uranium gets pumped to no result from time to time and this time seems no different, just the reasons ("OMG!!! Chinese Stockpiling!!!") change. DYODD, dude.

UPDATE: Welcome biiwii readers! If you're wondering what to get Gary for Xmas this year, here's a great gift idea.


Great Panther Silver (GPR.to): DON'T LOOK AT THE TRUE WIDTHS!!! DON'T!!! JUST LOOK AT THE HEADLINES, SUCKAZ!!!

This morning the serial mediocrity of Great Panther Silver (GPR.to) was reaffirmed by this NR. It actually starts quite brightly with a sheep-catching headline "Great Panther drills 1,681g/t silver over 3.15m at Topia" cos that's pretty darned good grading, isn't it? And you can bet serial pumper Mexico "Oh No Definitely No Hidden Agenda" Mike will be oozing all over it for his flock later today, too, along with the delinquents GPR uses to pump their stock like Jonathan Lebed. But if you dare to look closer at today's NR you see that this headline just aint all it's cracked up to be.
Yeah, really. Here's the drill results as presented in the NR with your author highlighting in red a couple of things:

----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Width TW Au Ag Pb Zn
Hole Vein From To m m (g/t) (g/t) % %
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
ST10-105 Don Benito 154.50 154.85 0.35 0.22 0.9 969 21.3 0.35
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
ST10-108 Don Benito 33.20 33.33 0.13 0.08 0.318 121 2.79 0.17
Alto
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
ST10-109 Don Benito 76.70 76.80 0.10 0.09 0.334 161 11.90 1.41
Alto
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
ST10-111 San Jorge 66.48 66.60 0.12 0.08 0.184 287 0.34 0.39
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
ST10-111 Cantarranas 78.18 78.32 0.14 0.10 0.790 1550 2.66 17.70
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
ST10-112 San Jorge 67.00 70.15 3.15 0.67 0.88 1681 2.40 5.32
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
ST10-112 Cantarranas 76.16 76.35 0.19 0.10 1.190 2820 3.29 4.04
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
ST10-113 Cantarranas 69.65 69.90 0.25 0.18 0.390 1150 1.35 2.34
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
ST10-117 San Gregorio 37.20 37.60 0.40 0.17 0.600 1030 3.31 10.10
Bajo
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
ST10-117 San Gregorio 80.80 81.00 0.20 0.08 0.240 118 0.41 17.3
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
ST10-118 San Gregorio 37.00 37.10 0.10 0.05 0.400 1700 8.03 8.54
Bajo
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
ST10-118 San Gregorio 71.80 72.40 0.60 0.28 0.400 349 0.46 8.53
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
ST10-118 San Gregorio 91.20 91.45 0.25 0.12 0.160 290 0.09 3.36
Alto
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
ST10-119 San Gregorio 45.05 45.25 0.20 0.07 0.060 799 3.90 16.60
Bajo
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ST10-119 San Gregorio 109.55 110.70 1.15 0.38 0.173 442 0.72 8.05
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ST10-120 San Gregorio 108.60 109.05 0.45 0.15 0.030 973 0.37 0.80
Bajo
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ST10-120 San Gregorio 119.10 119.50 0.40 0.14 0.200 167 0.29 5.87
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ST10-122 El Rosario 62.45 63.05 0.60 0.20 0.050 2000 2.46 3.45
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ST10-123 El Rosario 148.60 149.00 0.40 0.07 2.720 27 0.00 0.02
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ST10-125 San Gregorio 95.35 96.65 1.30 0.74 0.533 370 0.38 5.28
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ST10-126 El Rosario 107.75 110.8 3.05 1.65 0.398 294 1.76 0.81
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ST10-127 El Desierto 30.12 30.22 0.10 0.05 11.8 1550 5.27 5.89
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ST10-133 La Prieta 296.95 297.75 0.80 0.51 1.250 34 5.12 3.49
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ST10-134 La Prieta 231.25 231.55 0.30 0.25 2.39 38 4.23 5.14
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So we see that although the drillcore did return 3.15m at 1,681 g/t Au, the true width of the vein (remembering that drills are done at angles to the way the vein runs) is just 0.67m!! This is much more along the lines of the Topia deposit, typified by skinny skinny veins of decent grade (plenty of evidence in that table above, as well as all the previous results published) that brings the pisspoor revenues and results we've come to expect from this overhyped company.

There's a line that runs between "putting best foot forward" and "trying to con the sheep". GPR has crossed that line so many times there's little doubt as to the company promo tactics. Today's NR is just another in the series.

Mo´Andean Resoures (AND.to) (AND.ax)


So yesterday's Trading Post made mention of the kickass news release from Andean Resources (AND.to) (AND.ax) that hit the wires yesterday and, unsurprisingly, it's not just this humble scribe that was impressed. For example CIBC's Barry Cooper, along with sidekick Khaled Sultan, called yesterday's NR "a game changer" and have raised their target on the stock to $5 as per a note this morning

Want to read the CIBC analysis for yourself? Yeah sure, a direct download of the PDF is right here (bows gracefully).

UPDATE:
Here's Dundee on the AND results. Words like "excellent" abound...rightly so.


Disclosure: No position in AND.to

News roundup (we use three blades that shave you closer than two blades)


Why do we love Setty so much? This is why. Click through to hear about the cold snap we australs are going through right now and the power cuts all over the region too. Fave Settyline is this one, talking about the big cut in northern Peru over the weekend;
"Winning quote from that story is the electric utility saying they have a contingency plan, but they couldn’t implement it because there was no electricity".
Classic. Go read it all, like now.

Venezuela Analysis (aka V-Anal) reports on the Banco de Venezuela nationalization one year on. As the report notes, BdV is now the biggest bank in the country (it was 3rd when taken over) and has been surging in loan deals too. But as it was Chávez that told the world in a presser, it has to be lies, right? Remember folks, don't let the facts get in the way of etc etc.

Jakob at Maladjusted gets his wonk on and does a great job of walking us through the UN's newest methods to (attempt to) measure poverty. Lots of examples, charts, words and the necessary sneering at the correct points. A great post.

Peter Capusotto is back! Last night South America's best funnyguy (by a mile) hit the screen of Argentina again for his new series and, Argies doing good by the world, the first episode is already largely up on youtube. For those conversant in the ways of the language, the sketches linked here with characters Micky Vainilla, Violencia Rivas, Jesús de Laferrere and "Consumo" are unmissable. Knowledge of rock music culture and Argentina underground useful for full enjoyment potential.

UPDATE: Esp the Mick Vainilla one. Watched it 3 times already.

Chart of the day is....

....this one of the company Uranium Participation Corp (U.to) by way of a decent proxy to the metal, stolen from this BiiWii post yesterday.


More to say on U later today. Still trying to get my thoughts together, but suffice to say I take any "chart breakout" with a very large pinch of salt.

7/19/10

Refuse The Future

This type of photo is why blogs exist.


Heartfelt thanks and hat tip to Thought Experiment.

Trading Post (bright and early edition)


Pediment (PEZ.to) down 7.8% at $1.06 and we over at the Weekly have a target buy-in point for this stock. One worth watching, as they're drilling now and have that 'we'll tell 'em about it Labor Day' feel to the newsflow timing.

Rio Alto (RIO.v) down a penny at $0.69, but volume is rocking at nearly 600k traded thanks to two big purchases (one right at the bell). I wonder why that should be......................

Dorato Resources (DRI.v) down 9.4% at $0.58. Toldyaso, but you wouldn't listen would you? DRI is now officially a broken stock, it's still not got any sort of approval at the mining ombudsman people and is still as welcome as a Nazi at a Barmitzvah up there in the Cenepa region. You think all Peru is miner-friendly...like 100% of its territory? Wanna buy a bridge?

South American Silver (SAC.to) down 1.8% at $0.54. You signed on for the 63c placement? Hah, Greggy saw you coming, suckah.

Andean Resources (AND.to) up 2.3% at $3.11 on strong volumes. There are some drill NRs that are positive, some that are lacklustre and every so often you get one that knocks the ball out the park. Put AND's NR today in the third category....man, love those grades but feel your eyes pop out at the widths.

Gold and the broad markets

With gold trading at U$1180 an ounce right now, down maybe $80 from the recent top seen in late June, it's been refreshingly fun to listen to the usual suspects telling us how gold is dead and we should have listened to them and we're all gonna die and all that jazz.

I mean, these are the same people that have been warning us all off gold for the last few years and I bet you're glad you listened to them and piled into their stockpicks, eh?


DYODD, dude.

Chile's econostats: Is that the smell of male bovine waste material in the air?

So on drudging through the stats department of the Chilean Central Bank website this morning...y'know....just like any normal and well-adjusted person on a Monday morning...it suddenly occurred to this humble scribe that Chile must be some sort of laboral Nirvana, a Panacea of hope set aside from the normal abusive labour practices and gouging companies only interested in their bottom lines more common in this continent.

Why so? Well take a look at this chart that compares country inflation (the consumer type) and the indexed average salaries paid to the workforce. The only adjustment made is mathematical (and easy), as one set of figures is indexed at 100 to 2006 and the other to 2008, so a quick adjustment brings them both to the same starting point.

What we see is that salaries have increased over this period at a pretty regular rate, but the main benefit came in 2009 onwards when, thanks to that deflationary impulse from abroad, inflation levels dropped and things got cheaper (or didn't get any more expensive at least), while salaries apparently kept on rising. The result? More buying power in the hands of the average Joe Chileno and the world is a beautiful place.

But then I got to thinking why that should be, especially cos of this:

Because Chile didn't escape from the effects of the Lehman/Subprime plunge, as the unemployment numbers clearly show. So hey wow!! Chile must be a special place right? It's the wonderful exception where unemployment rises sharply but bosses are still willing to pay extra to the people that are still employed.

Or maybe...just perhapsy...the Chile CenBank is statistically full of shit. YOU BE THE JUDGE!

BMO does Fortuna (FVI.to)

Last week BMO opened coverage on Fortuna Silver (FVI.to) with an outperform rating, a $3.20 target price and a 1.19Mb pdf analysis. Apart from one little snafu where they got the shares out total wrong on the front box, it's a pretty good report on the company and it's clear that the BMO dude Kaip (unlike many other more neuronally-challenged analysts out there) gets what's happening at FVI.

Anyway, less of my vague wanderings. If you want to download and read the BMO oeuvre yourself you can find it by clicking right here. Worth the time of longs and potential longs.

Charts of the day are....

....on zinc, with the five year price chart and the five year LMA warehouse chart.
The good news is that South America has lots of zinc. The bad news is that China has, too. It ain't like copper, not so much needs to be imported.

These charts more than the copper charts are likely to tell you when the world economy is really moving out of recession and into strong growth. Think zinc, dude.

7/18/10

The IKN Weekly, out now


IKN63 is in your inboxes, subscribers. I apologize in advance for the typos that I couldn't find but suspect still exist. I'm adding a spellchecker to the PC next week, or so my computer boffin neighbour reliably tells me.

Anyway, as most of the words are correctly spelled and contain useful information on the world of junior miners, this humble scribe hopes you get some juice out of the edition.

Kick ass music

Calle 13 is the hottest band this end of the world right now. Not only that, they're well good too. Here's the new track brought forward from their new album out October, called 'Calma Pueblo'.



Click here for a decent English translation of the words done by Bina.

Peru's 2011 Presidential Race: New poll numbers

Here's the chart:

click to enlarge

Lord help the world, Keiko "I'm not the continuation of Fujimori policies" Fujimori (make that Fuji-Freakin-Mori) is ahead with 22% of voter intention. Second is Luis "Interesting" Castañeda and third....still creeping up...is ex-Pres Alejandro Toledo, who still has my five bucks as most likely winner right now (and I'm no real fan of his, before you say anything). Then comes the untouchable Ollanta and then the joke candidates (that moniker most definitely includes the current FinMin Araoz).

For the record, this survey was done by the basically reliable IPSOS/Apoyo people for El Comercio (notably throwing its weight behind the Toledo campaign recently). Survey sample was 1200 people from 17 cities up and down Peru between July 13th and 16th, with a margin of error of +/- 2.8%.

The Don Coxe ConfCall, July 16th

Link here for those that want. For those that don't want, don't click it.

IKN63 out today (probably)

That's cos it's way behind normal timescales and will probably arrive later than usual Sunday. Sorry people, all that travelling has knocked me back some.