9/7/10

Living (and dying) Peru's election campaigns

News through from the Huánuco region highland Peru today regarding the campaigning style used for those wishing to be elected mayor of the local towns.

The Town in question is Chacabamba and as part of his re-election campaign, current mayor Vidal Figueroa decided in all his wisdom to run a "Who can drink more than me?" competition as part of his vote-winning push, with a S/150 (U$53.50) prize put up for grabs to the person who could drink the most hard liquor during the allotted time. There were 10 competitors and the winner turned out to be 50 year old local Hernando Lorenzo. Having claimed his prize, Lorenzo then went home and that same night died in his sleep due to the effects of the copious amounts of alcohol in his body, according to the official autopsy. Five other competitors were also hospitalized for the effects of alcohol poisoning.

This photo was taken of Lorenzo leaving his house next morning. He won't be able to vote for the Mayor, being dead and that. The mayor is now under investigation, orders of the local DA. 

South American Silver (SAC.to): Greg Johnson's lucky timing

Isn't it strange how these things tend to happen? Back On June 18th South American Silver (SAC.to), on the back of some sudden and strange hype from certain Canadian-based quarters that saw its stock jump quickly, ran a bought deal financing at 63c with Wellington West (a company that has its quarters based in Canada, if you didn't already know) that raised some $4m for the company.

This humble corner of cyberspace noted the deal in its subscription IKN Weekly that week and then a little later ran the excerpt here on the open blog in a post entitled "Why is South American Silver (SAC.to) so keen on running a bought deal financing this month?" . The reason the bought deal timing caught the eye were the little-known moves by Bolivia's government to change the rules for junior exploration miners there (the post linked above runs bulletpoints of the main initiatives). Needless to say, the mooted changes are not for the greater good of the Canadian juniors exposed to Bolivia like SAC.to.

So let's see how SAC.to has traded since that extremely fortunately timed bought deal went through:


Well riddle me ree, it's back to the sub-50c prices already! Waddya say Owly?

Oh, by the way SAC.to & Wellington West didn't manage to sell any of the overallotment connected to the June bot deal. Strange that, innit? DYODD, dude.

This week's freebie

This week we have a really good one to give away, a free year's subscription (yes honestly, it's totally free and they don't ask for credit card details and sneak in a payment after the year is up, either...free and no strings attached) to Oil and Gas Financial Journal.

Just click through, fill in the form and it's all done and dusted. Here comes the blurb:

subscribe
Oil & Gas Financial Journal

 
Oil & Gas Financial Journal provides petroleum industry managers, analysts and investors credible, useful information about the most important financial developments and oil exploration of their business. 
 
Oil & Gas Financial Journal provides petroleum industry managers, analysts and investors credible, useful information about the most important financial developments of their business. OGFJ brings to the worlds of petroleum finance and investment the type of authoritative coverage that Oil & Gas Journal gives to industry operations and technology. 
 
Geographic Eligibility: USA, Canada, Mexico, & Selected International 

Offered Free by: PennWell Corporation 

Other Resources from: PennWell Corporation

Venezuelan elections and Hemispheric Brief

Good news! Joshua Frens-String is back from his summer break and the return post at his blog, Hemispheric Brief, provides a great roundup of news and views on the Venezuelan legislative elections which happen September 26th. I'd excerpt a bit of JFS's prose here but it's tough to take any part out of the full context without losing the benefits of reading the whole piece. So go read the whole piece linked right here as it's today's required reading on LatAm.

And now it's back, put Hemispheric Brief on your RSS, your bookmarks or your whatever. A great and concise way of getting an EngLang, no-spin, no-BS view of what's happening in this neck of the woods.

Uranium update

From Scotia:

- Tradetech U3O8 +$1.25 to $46.75/lb: Well, the uranium spot price kicks off September with more volatility, clawing back some of last week’s fall in what can be only be dubbed a very active market (1.2mm lbs traded in the first 3 days of September).

Do with this info what you will and DYODD

Peru's IGBVL rally

click to enlarge

We keep an eye on the Peru IGBVL 'General' index because it's a nice way of checking on mining stocks and EM trends at the same time. We've had a rally in recent weeks that now sees the IGBVL at the top of its (roughly speaking) 14,000 to 16,000 channel which has remained on track for more than a year. Will this time be different? YOU BE THE JUDGE!

Shock Headline! Can of Corn Zeds pump Minera Andes! Suited Analyst Talks Book of Failing Reco! Short-Term Upmove Expected!


Jeesh, these guys are so predictable you can set your clock by them. IKN may begin a new series entitled "The Zed Fade" if this keeps up. Here's the pumpo excerpted in this morning's CanOfCorn Morning Coffee:
Minera Andes* (MAI : TSX : $0.97), Net Change: 0.11, % Change: 12.79%, Volume: 1,553,939 
Minera Andes: Its San Jose operation (49% MAI, 51% Hochschild) in Argentina continues to ramp up to full production. H1/10 is believed to have been the weaker half of the year as operational improvements were implemented, leading to the second half of the year carrying the better overall production. For FY10, Canaccord Genuity is expecting 192,000 oz AuEq from San Jose (49% MAI). This translates to just under 100,000 oz AuEq net to Minera Andes that at current Au Ag prices could translate to over $50 million in operating cash flow. Based on Canaccord Genuity’s price to cash flow (2011) basis Minera is trading at about 4.0x versus many peers that range from 8x to 15x cash flow. The company also owns 100% of a large Cu porphyry system (Los Azules) and maintains an excellent portfolio of Au Ag exploration ground in Argentina. Note: This portfolio is in the vicinity of Andean"

IKN back. MAI is marking up $1.00 in the pre-mkt right now (time of writing 8am). I kinda knew I'd likely be leaving $$ on the table by selling my MAI.to on Friday, but it's ok. For one thing I've made my moolah on the trade and for another I much prefer buying when the shepherds like them there Zeds are all STFU and selling when they are flogging the dead horses. A good trading philosophy doesn't get you out at the exact high points of any single trade, but it does make you a winning trader in the long term. Which do you prefer?

The gold/copper ratio

click to enlarge

This three year timescale chart that tracks the price ratio between an ounce of gold in dollars and a pound of copper in cents is probably a very interesting and insightful one for those people who think technical analysis works.

Chart of the day is.....

...an update of the race to be Mayor of Lima Peru, the main event in the Municipal elections coming up on October 3rd:

Since we last noted this race on August 13th, the then-2nd placed candidate Alex Kouri has been barred by the Peruvian election authorities from running because 1) he's a dumbass and 2) he wasn't a resident of the City of Lima. So with the field narrowed down we see the race developing into a woman vs woman contest (and this is good). Lourdes Flores (right wing) is still in the lead but Susana Villaran (centre-left) is closing in and making a real fight of it. In July Susana was polling 4%,  in early August 7.5%, now 21.7%. There's still a big gap to make up, but the trend is her friend. and it'll likely be much closer come the big day.

By the way, the August 16th numbers were those from the same IMA pollsters and they assumed Kouri would be barred, so it's a fair comparative. Data from the survey results here.

Final thought: If you're asking why you should care about a city Mayorial election in a South American country, it's a fair question of course. So the answer is

1) It's excellent news that two women are fighting out the top position and most likely the job itself. Good for South American politics, good for all of us to have women in power seats.

2) This election, especially the Lima vote, will set the scene for next year's big shebang Presidentials in Peru. Flores is rightwing, Villaran is centreleft (though her opponents are trying to paint her as more radical. Big clues to how 2011 will go, coming soon.

3) If 1) and 2) aren't enough for you then that's still fine by me, but perhaps you should ask yourself just why you're reading a blog about LatAm written by some dumbass South of the equator in the first place.

Have. Nice. Day.


UPDATE: Another reliable polling company publishes this morning and puts Lourdes on 33% and Susana on 27%. Spanish language link here.

9/6/10

Kinda tight market for junior funding still.....


...unless of course you have friends in the Canuck houses. Take for example the case of Azteca Gold (AZG.v), a tinycap explorer trying to raise capital in order to explore its projects. Here's how the funding round started on August 13th:

Private placement
The Company will undertake a non-brokered private placement of up to $1,500,000 by the issuance of up to 30,000,000 units, subject to regulatory approval.

Each unit is priced at $.05 and consists of one common share and one common share purchase warrant exercisable for 2 years from closing. Each warrant entitles the holder to subscribe for one additional common share for $0.10. Proceeds will be used to complete drilling, logging and assaying of the current drill hole DDH-009 at its 100% owned Two Mile project in the Silver Valley, Idaho, and for general working capital.

The financing book opens, the book running is done, the phones are hit, the brokers are consulted, the pitches are made and here's how it turned out, dated September 6th (today):
Corporate Update
Azteca closed its current financing at CAD $223,600, selling a total of 4,472,000 Units. Each Unit was priced at CAD $.05, and consisted of one share of common stock and one purchase warrant.

IKN assumes that the exploration program and budget expenditure flowthrough charts will be revised slightly. DYODD, dudettes and dudes.

Bolivia inflation: Baaaack?


In 2008 and 2009 the Bolivia of Evo Morales fought the good fight and did what very few governments there had been able to do before them; Thanks to sound macro policy (and deflation in the world's major economies) Bolivia managed to get its consumer price inflation under control.

No mean achievement, but all of a sudden there are signs that inflation is back and eating away at people's pockets. Today's announcement of August CPI at 1.06% is not a good thing and puts the 12 month trailing rate for CPI (what we normally understand as "the inflation rate") at 2.6%.


But the real problem isn't that headline 2.6%, rather the recent spike that's baking inflation into the cake for the next 12 months. This chart shows the monthly breakdown and we see how the last three months have added most of the inflationary burden onto the 12 month trailer.


June, July and August combine to give 1.82% of inflation and that 1.82% will show on the annual numbers all the way through next year. As August 2009 notes, there is a tendency for a higher price spike in that month (this year the goverment blamed much of the 1.06% on rises in the price of potatoes and chicken, which is not much of a surprise during the Andean winter) so we'll wait to see what September brings before shilling "we're all gonna die!" at you. But inflation is rearing its ugly head once again in Bolivia and if Morales&Co wants to keep its good economic record intact they'd be wise to tackle the issue immediately. 

DYODD.

Chile: The pushback against the royalty hike begins (from IKN70)

 Got a gold tie, have you? Think you're clever, do you?

In Chile dumbass xenophobia is not confined to the proletariat masses, as what it tries to pass off as its executive also promote soft racism for its own political ends. Today's example of shameless purveyor of hatred is Miguel Angel Durán (Anglo American should be ashamed of themselves) and the situation was included in yesterday's IKN70 thusly (as we've been following the Chilean royalty law issue over there):

Chile: The pushback against the royalty hike begins
We mentioned above the revised royalty plan now heading to Chile’s congress for passage to law, so it’s worth mentioning here the tactic unveiled this week by the industry to stop this royalty proposal from becoming reality. And the tactic is, “remind Chile just how much they hate Peru”. This crass strategy comes from the mouth of Miguel Angel Durán, head of the Chamber of Mining and also (significantly) Executive President of Anglo American Chile. The thinly veiled attempt to appeal to historical friction and ill-feeling between the Andean neighbours took the guise of competitivity in the copper sector. In his op-ed published in Chilean biz magazine ‘Estrategia’ he wrote (8) that he was ‘worried’ about the growth rates shown by mining in Peru because its costs of production were lower than in Chile. He continued (translated):
 
“If one looks at the growth rate that copper mining (in Peru) has had in the last few years it has been greater than that of Chile; if one looks at the costs, they are lower.
 
“Projection made by international organizations reveal that producing a pound of copper is cheaper in Peru than in Chile, that exploration investment is lower in Chile than in other mining countries and that energy costs (for mining in Chile) are higher.”
 
So after waving the flag and appealing to base nationalistic traits, Durán comes to the point:
 
“The problem in modifying the royalty impacts the profits of companies operating today in Chile, but will undoubtedly affect future investments. Therefore for the investor who has to decide between countries that have higher taxes than others, or lower exploration costs or higher costs of production, the alternatives are clear.”
 
This is, of course, total balderdash. The same arguments are trotted out every time a government decides to raise burdens on mining and it makes little or no difference in the longer run, as anyone who can remember the debate in 2004 when Peru’s mining industry was up in arms about its own royalty hike can remember. As for Chile itself, Señor Durán in his discourse neatly avoids the low overall state burden placed on mining by the State, along with the early stage tax breaks offered by the country. Playing the reduced profits card is also a real stretch at a time when Chilean miners produce at U$1.30/lb to $1.70/lb and sell their product at $3.50/lb. Finally, when it comes to the building of new mines, we know that the miner goes to the project rather than vice-versa.
Bottom line: If this is all the top executives can manage by way of an argument against the new, time-limited and watered down royalty proposal to raise money towards the post-quake rebuild, then the project will make passage and become law. Durán does a dissservice to his fellow miners with this shameless jingoism.

A comment on comments

There's a change gone on around here. 

Up to now, your author has slapped all the draconian controls on commenting at IKN (you needed the Google account, you needed the antispam word, you needed the author approval) before any comments appeared. This was due in part to those fine upstanding members of the interwebs we know as "anonymous haters" but mainly because IKN Nerve Centre was getting inundated by spam comments (and we were talking dozens per day, people..really boring). But THE GOOD NEWS is that those nice nerdy types at Google have recently implemented a antispam comments program that's supposed to filter all these out before they get published, so as from today and by way of experiment comments at IKN are automatically published and need no form of Google account, either. If it works, it'll stay this way. 

The bottom line is that commenting is now much freer and easier round here. If heaps of spam and/or haters show up we'll go back to the draconian ways you've learned to love, but if not the spirit of free speech has managed to invade this humble corner of cyberspace at last. Thank you for your attention, please be having that nice day you promised yourself.

Adventures in basic mathematics, Ecuador oil edition


Your humble scribe was surprised to see this report in his interwebnetpipes this morning:
BEIJING, Sep. 6, 2010 (Xinhua News Agency) -- Ecuador finance minister Patricio Rivera has said the country would sell 360,000 barrels/day of crude oil to PetroChina (601857.SH; PTR.NYSE) in the next four years, according to a Dow Jones Newswires report.
 The South American country's finance minister was quoted as saying that the crude oil will be sold at market prices. CONTINUES HERE

Why so? Time for the funmath!
1) According to home gov't and EIA figures (which unlike Venezuela largely agree) Ecuador currently produces 490,000 barrels of oil per day (bbl/d)

2) Ecuador's internal consumption of oil currently runs at 180,000bbl/d

3) This means that even in the very VERY unlikely event that Ecuador stops selling its wares to traditional partners (such as main customer USA or next door Peru) they still have another 50,000bbl/d to magic up from somewhere.

So tell me again how this greenheaven Yasuní ITT initiative will work? Meanwhile, today's pretzel math gives us a great chance to CUE THE MUSIC!

Chart of the day is....

...crude oil weeklies.


Your author continues to marvel at just how well behaved crude prices have been this year. It's almost as if......NAH SURELY NOT!

9/5/10

Long live the State of Arizona Department of Mines and Mineral Resources

With all the unfriendly vibes coming out of officialdom in Arizona recently, it's a pleasure to point readers to a Az govt website that does minehead readers a great service. Its page title is Mining Scams and it has solid tips for investors and help the naive or innocent avoid falling into the clutches of the mining scam scumballs and losing hard-earned wedge. Here's how the intro runs as an appetizer, click through for the rest.
Introduction
A time-honored method to bilk the public of millions of dollars is the ubiquitous mining swindle. Since an unusually rich ore deposit, or bonanza, has historically produced enormous profits for the developer, many of us believe that we too, like the '49er, can strike it rich. The glamour attached to "discovery" creates, in the imagination of some people, a relatively easy way to attain fantastic wealth. 

Although money can be made in mining and this Department certainly encourages mining, we also have a responsibility to urge the public to exercise prudence in its investment. Too many people have lost their hard-earned savings on an ill-advised mineral scheme. Archives are full of outrageous examples of mining scams and swindles in which the only beneficiary was a glib entrepreneur with unbounded optimism. In most cases, he disappeared before his investors realized what happened. CONTINUES HERE

Many thanks to the wonderful Setty for the headsup.

UPDATE: Reader GV kindly sends in this link to a PDF with plenty more sound advice from John Meech from the Centre for Environmental Research in Minerals, Metals and Materials,  University of British Columbia about avoiding mining scams.

The IKN Weekly, out now


IKN70 has just been sent to subscribers. Words, charts, tables, numbers, metals, miners and a chunk or two of poetry.

Brazil: New poll for the Presidential race

Dilma is trouncing Serra and looks like winning straight on round one (that happens October 3rd, less than a month away now). Good.

The data for the poll was collected by Datafolha between September 2nd and 3rd. It was a big sample, with 4,314 people surveyed in 203 different municipalities up and down Brazil with a margin of error of +/- 2%. Data from here.

Go Dilma!

Happy Birthday!

The joint top world's most wonderful daughter turns four today. In May 2008 she looked like this:

And today she's this:

Too fast...all far too fast. Big kisses from Dada

xxxxxxxx

9/4/10

We like 'The Happy Meal Project'

On April 10th this year New York photographer Sally Davies bought a burger and fries from McDonalds and took a photo of it. Here's that photo.


Since then she's taken a shot of the same plate every single day as an experiment that combines ughness, morbid fascination, processed food longevity and the arguments against stuffing junk down your face from a vegetarian viewpoint. And it surely is compelling when you look at the photo from day 145, September 2nd:


Oh lordy it's hardly changed, even though (quoting Sally) "Its sitting on my coffee table with nothing covering it. No bugs, no mould, no smell, nothing. "

Go see the whole of "The McDonalds Happy Meal Project" at this link, or visit Sally's website here.

recommended read

This article/interview in Wired published this week. Here's how it starts:

For a while there, things didn’t look too good for British writer Simon Singh. The best-selling author of the science histories Big Bang and Fermat’s Enigma knew he was heading into controversial territory when he switched tracks to cowrite a book investigating alternative medicine, Trick or Treatment? What Singh didn’t count on, however, was that writing a seemingly innocuous article for London’s The Guardian newspaper about especially outrageous chiropractic claims—one of the subjects he researched for the book—would end up threatening his career. The British Chiropractic Association sued Singh, hoping to use Britain’s draconian libel laws to force him to withdraw his statements and issue an apology. Losing the case would have cost Singh both his reputation and a substantial amount of his personal wealth. Such is the state of science, where sometimes even stating simple truths (like the fact that there’s no reliable evidence chiropractic can alleviate asthma in children) can bring the wrath of the antiscience crowd. What the British chiropractors didn’t count on, however, was Singh himself. Having earned a PhD from Cambridge for his work at the Swiss particle physics lab CERN, he wasn’t about to back down from a scientific gunfight. Singh spent more than two years and well over $200,000 of his own money battling the case in court, and this past April he finally prevailed. In the process, he became a hero to those challenging the pseudoscience surrounding everything from global warming to vaccines to evolution. It’s not necessarily a role he sought for himself, but it’s one he has embraced—he’s currently touring the world, talking about his case, libel reform, and how important it is to make sure scientists can speak truthfully and openly. Wired spoke with Singh about his case and the struggle against the forces of irrationality.

CONTINUES HERE

A room with a view (part 20) summer vacs edition

This week reader PS offers us a dreamy late evening (update: mistake made, as PS just wrote in to say it was in fact early morning) shot he took of Lake Maggiore.

The lake is in the Swiss Alps near the border with Italy and gives us a slice of Europe to leaven the recent Americana in the series.

9/3/10

The Friday OT (special guest post doubleheader edition): U2; Silver and Gold and Led Zeppelin; Over the Hills and Far Away

For reasons that are unnecessary to go into, today's Friday OT is being run by reader 'BE', who was asked for a good song and came up with two great ones, so rather than choose let's run 'em both with BE's comments. Enjoy:

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

Ok, so I was thinking a song both topical to the markets we follow, and also a bit of an obscure but often-overlooked track on one of the best live/tour/soundtrack albums ever.....



Silver and Gold, U2..... and unless I've missed my guess, I'll bet that you're as much a fan of the 5 min. mark when Edge "plays the blues" as I am!

I don't often miss a day of IKN, but I do remote work in the Canadian resources sector so I'm occasionally off the grid - hopefully there hasn't been a U2 tune recently that would rule out the above - if so, here's a respectable alternate, with no particular relevance to anything other than it's just such a great tune



Over the Hills and Far Away - Zep - I love Zep! climbed the mountain behind Jimmy's castle on the shore of Loch Ness back in my reckless youth, same place where they filmed his sequence in the Song Remains the Same concert film - good times!

Trading Post (got the builders in again edition)


Andean Resources (AND.to) (AND.ax) up 48.9% at CAD$7.16, which prices in a possible bidding war. We shall see what we shall see.

Troy Resources (TRY.to) (TRY.ax) up 8.6% at CAD$2.66. Troy was one of the first stocks to react to the AND.to news, coming as it did at the beginning of the Aussie Friday session late last night. We're updating our coverage on TRY this weekend in the NOBS fundy report (which was programmed before today's Argy newsflow surge, by luck or judgement good or bad).

Minera Andes (MAI.to) up 11.6% at $0.96 on strong vols. Mine were sold this AM at 95, fwiw.

Ventana Gold (VEN.to) up 11.4% at $9.48, so a good lucky richochet picked up by the port here, too. DYODD.

Fronteer (FRG) up 1.1% at U$7.53 and clawing back some of the early week loss on the XAU.to buyout news. Sprott upgraded FRG to a buy this morning, which might be a factor.

LocotoMail

Locojhon is a regular round these parts and always good for sending your humble scribe a smart but biting mail or two about all things LatAm. So instead of keeping the fun to myself this time, here's a mail he just sent in to IKN Nerve Centre minutes ago:

Wanna bet???


...that none of those from LatAm nations opposed to US hegemony will be found in the USA--even though the whole world knows they are here?

Like the ones who blew up the airliner; the corrupted ones who fled from Bolivia and Venezuela and other nations after a regime-change???

There are too many tales to be told if repatriated back to where the damage was done.

How about a reader contest, Otto--closest to the correct number the US turns over to others by the end of the operation?

My guess is zero.
locoto

WASHINGTON — The United States and several other countries have launched a new operation to hunt down and capture international fugitives wanted by Interpol in the Americas, US officials said Friday.

The initiative, called "Operation Far Away," is "an intelligence-driven operation designed to target, locate and arrest criminal aliens believed to be hiding in the United States and in other Western Hemisphere countries," US Immigration and Customs Enforcement said.

The operation is expected throughout the month.

Interpol will coordinate the operation with participation from Bahamas, Barbados, Bolivia, Brazil, Canada, Colombia, Costa Rica, Ecuador, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Netherlands Antilles, Peru and the US territory of Puerto Rico.

In 2009, Interpol issued more than 5,000 "red notices" for wanted criminals or suspects.

If you owe the bank $10,000 you have a problem.....

......(and as the old saying continues) if you owe the bank $1,000,000 it's the bank that has the problem. On the other hand, if you owe one of the world's five biggest oil companies $232,469,958 and agree to pay it off over a term of 17 years at a 2% interest rate, then nobody has a problem and everyone's happy.

Here's Bolivia's La Razon on the story about Bolivia's State run YPFB oil company's debt to Venezuela's PDVSA (excerpt translated):

La Paz: To June 30 2010 Yacimientos Petrolíferos Fiscales Bolivianos (YPFB) owed Petróleos de Venezuela (PDVSA) U$232,47m for diesel imports, according to Bolivian Central Bank (BCB) data.

Import volumes for diesel in the first six months of this year accounted for 54% of total national sales according to YPFB statistics.

The State report on medium and long-term public debt published by the BCB stated that YPFB owed U$232,469,958 for diesel imported, an amount that will be paid off over 17 years at an annual interest rate of 2%. Diesel is the most popular fuel in Bolivia's internal market CONTINUES HERE

Copper: A strong analysis of the bull case by Andy Home of Reuters

In today's Reuters Metals Insider (click here, pages one and two of the PDF) Andy Home publishes a great analysis of dynamics in the copper market. You're advised to click through and read it all, but here's a goodly sized excerpt:

MINE SHORTAGE - BUSINESS AS USUAL
To understand why it's worth considering what is happening further up the supply chain. Extreme tightness is already a constant in the copper concentrates market.

The exact numbers for this year's mid-term concentrate deals are still unconfirmed by either miners or smelters but the consensus view seems to be that they came in at or just below $40 per tonne and 4.0 cents per pound.

Those in the spot market have been lower still, headline treatment charges recently falling to near zero. These are distress levels for smelters the world over.

And the problem is that no-one, least of all the smelters themselves, can see where the extra mine supply is going to come from to boost concentrates availability. World mine production grew by an anaemic 0.3 percent in the first five months of this year, according to the International Copper Study Group. Capacity utilisation fell to just 77.5 percent.

A lack of new projects and the ageing of the world's existing mines, translating into declining ore grades, are going to continue keeping the concentrates market in deficit.

That in turn will directly impact global smelter run rates, even allowing for a continued improvement in scrap availability. This chronic mine under-performance is a wellflagged feature of the copper market. But combining it with relatively low inventory of refined metal creates a heady bull cocktail.

No wonder that a growing number of big bank analysts are forecasting copper prices to hit all-time nominal highs at some stage next year.

Bears beware! The warning signs are already there in that front-month LME tightness. The small backwardation in the Nov-to-three-months period could be just a taster of what lies around the corner for the copper market.

CONTINUES HERE

When Argentina suddenly becomes the fashion place for risk capital......

....you just know it's going to all end in tears.

But no matter in the very short term, as today's news about Andean Resources (AND.to) (AND.ax) and Goldcorp (GG) has set off a mini-bullrun in juniors exposed to the land of the Kirchners. For example the Argy silver play Mirasol (MRZ.v)....

...and much to my pleasant surprise (cos I didn't sell 'em yesterday) Minera Andes (MAI.to):

Meanwhile, wiser souls are indeed looking a little further afield for the next big gold deposit to get sold. Example Ventana Gold (VEN.to):

Others too. DYODD

Andean Resources (AND.to) (AND.ax)

Back in July we dedicated more than one IKN space to Andean Resources (AND.to) (AND.ax) and its excellent round of drill results (here's an example, with links to coverage reports) so yesterday's unsolicited bid by Eldorado (EGO) swiftly followed by friendly bid from Goldcorp catches this humble scribe's eye.

The bit that really grabs the attention, however, is the price being paid. Now for sure there's a whole lot of underexplored ground on the AND.to plot down there in Argentina (there's 215 km sq in total), but if we go on just the current outlined resources so far, it's still a hefty price tag being paid. What we have is:
  • 2.54m oz gold indicated
  • 523,000m oz gold inferred
  • 23.56m oz silver indicated
  • 3.12m oz silver inferred.

If we use a 65:1 ratio for the Ag/Au that brings us to a total of 3.996m oz Gold Eq (the lion's share pure gold). And yes, it's high grade, and yes it's near surface and yes there may be a lot left to add to that resource count yet, but still, we are talking about

EIGHT HUNDRED AND FIFTY-SIX US DOLLARS PER OUNCE

And that's a price tag to make you sit back and think about things. Things like, "That'd still be a hefty price tag if the gold count doubles" or things like "Wow, Ventana Gold (VEN.to) is dirt cheap here".

Disclosure: No position AND.to, long VEN.to.

Chart of the day is...

...uranium, two year spot price from this page. Source: The Ux Consulting Company, LLC

Back in late July this humble corner of cyberspace took flak from the momo crowd for daring to suggest that the spike being seen in U was another round of market spec rahrah and that, in fact, the supply situation for uranium wasn't tight at all. This post explained it all (with pretty charts and everything) and here are the words used to wrap it up:
The bottom line is that there's seemingly no supply squeeze on the horizon and it doesn't matter what the market shillers might think. Uranium gets pumped to no result from time to time and this time seems no different, just the reasons ("OMG!!! Chinese Stockpiling!!!") change. DYODD, dude.

Since then, U has dropped back from U$46.50/lb to this week's U$45 on the spot market. IKN once again apologizes for failing to buy into the Canadian market bullshit hype....and for being right, too.

DYODD, dudette. DYODD, dude.

9/2/10

Fulp on BNN does Rare Metals (and moves markets)

Here's the chart of Tasman Metals (TSM.v). Check out 11:50am, the time Mickey Fulp picked TSM out as his favourite play of all the REE sector right now on his 5 minute segment on BNN today:


See the whole interview as recorded on BNN right here. where Fulp talks about TSM and other REE plays. Disclosure: no position in TSM or in any of the companies.

The 33 trapped Chilean miners: It's possible that only 32 want to come out

Here we go with a direct translation of this report:

Chile: One of the trapped miners 700 metres underground in the San José mine might not want to be rescued, due to the fact that his wife recently met his lover at the entrance to the mine.

The wife of Yonni Barrios, Marta Salinas, and Barrios's lover, Susana Valenzuela, were both waiting that the mine for news of the rescue when they met for the first time.

Salinas was surprised when she heard Susana shouting her husband's name amongst a group of mine family members.

The wife, 56, admitted to being 'horrified. However she is determined to stop her rival from winning her husband.

Salinas commented to her friends, "Barrios is my husband. He loves me and I'm his wife. That woman has no legitimacy."

However, Valenzuela has said that the 50 year old mine, who she met during a training course five years ago, was planning to leave his wife to be with her. Continues here

"We're in love. I'll wait for him", added Valenzuela.



UPDATE:
Oh Lordy, the guy is toast now. The Sun is now running the same story in EngLang. Well, I suppose he could end up selling the book rights to Murdoch...

UPDATE 2: Hold crap it's getting worse! Thanks for the headsup from reader 'Anibal' left in comments to this report that includes:

"....At least five wives have been forced to come face to face with mistresses whose existence was kept from them by their husbands, who have been trapped more than 700 metres below since a cave-in on Aug 5. One miner has four women fighting in an effort to claim compensation....."

Trading Post (I kissed a girl I liked it edition)


Rio Alto (RIO.v) down 1.0% at $1.00 on low volumes. Having rushed up and got itself a one handle last week, RIO can't decide which way to go now. According to Gary Biiwii, the short-term persepective has the under at 90 and the over at 120, so I suppose on a risk/reward basis you're best long right now....if you believe them there charts, anyway.

Fortuna Silver (FVI.to) up 2.5% at $2.83 and still rockin' on nice volumes. The gift that just keeps on giving.

Petaquilla (PTQ.to) down 4.8% at $0.40 with the stubborn longs beginning to work out just how bad that fwd gold sales deal really was. Toldyaso.

Minera Andes (MAI.to) up a penny at 88c. I still haven't taken profits on the chunk bot at 75c. I still want to. Might even take this 88 if nothing else turns up soon. I'm giving myself til tomorrow, fwiw.

News roundup (we offer a trim, shave and something for the weekend, sir)

chop chop!

The Economist is often mediocrity defined when it comes to its LatAm coverage, but it does offer up some decent perspectives on occasion (which keeps me from scrubbing its LatAm desk from my RSS). A good example today as TE offers up Ethanol's mid-life crisis on Brazil's sugar/ethanol sector. Interesting reading material and food for thought.

In our Presidential libido gossip column section, Paraguay's Lugo, currently under treatment for cancer, is not the father of one of the football team he's supposed to have procreated, according to DNA testing announced this week. Two positives and a negative so far.

We like that Brazil's Lula and Colombia's Santos have signed an eight point bilateral trade agreement this week. Lula then presented Santos with a pretty gong to hang round his neck and Santos said warm and fuzzy things about how wonderful Brazil is. Ahhh, ain't diplomacy cute sometimes?

Oh noes! Argentina is Communist too! The turncoats have only gone and bought a truckload of Russian military hardware, for the first time ever, too. Whatever happened to those carnal relations of the 90's eh? (update: link now works)

A taxi driver accused of sexual abuse his female passengers in Lima denies the charges, as (in his words) he only forced them to perform oral sex while threatening them with a screwdriver. Oh well, that's alright then, isn't it?


Goddam freakin' Socialists....

...and their twobit freakin' banana republic mindsets, always raising taxes and makin' it difficult for us fine upstandin' people to move in and make money. Freakin' pinko commie swine.

Oh...wait a minute....

Sept. 1 (Bloomberg) -- Ecuador’s government will propose a 3 percentage point tax reduction for businesses to help boost investment and job growth in South America’s seventh-biggest economy, Production Minister Nathalie Cely said.

President Rafael Correa’s Cabinet agreed yesterday to propose a cut in the corporate income tax rate to 22 percent from 25 percent in an effort to at least double investment by next year, Cely, a 45-year-old Harvard University-trained economist, said today in an interview at her offices in Quito CONTINUES HERE

Mariner Energy (ME) kaboom, but maybe Shute might want to reconsider his 'long MCF' call


One person is missing after a rig explosion in the Gulf of Mexico, about 80 miles south of Vermilion Bay, the U.S. Coast Guard said.It happened around 9 a.m., and as of 10:15 a.m., the rig was still burning, the Coast Guard said. Rescue crews from New Orleans and Houston are responding.Officials said there were 13 people aboard the rig, and all but one are accounted for.Two helicopters from Houston and three from New Orleans are responding to the blast. Two other fixed-wing planes and two cutter ships are also responding, the Coast Guard said.The rig is owned by Mariner Energy.

Peru: Latest polls for the 2011 Presidential election

The poll published by pollsters IMA today is based on Lima & Metro area alone (where for example Ollanta Humala is less popular and Luis Castañeda is better known) but the main takeway is that Alejandro Toledo is continuing his slow but steady rise in the polls.

Although not even officially running yet, Toledo has been more active in the last few weeks and everybody now expects him to announce he's throwing his hat in to the ring in the next few weeks.

Right now it's looking like a three-horse race. None of them appeal very much to this humble scribe, but if I could make one request it'd be "no Keiko...please, no Keiko".

The USA once again confused about how South America can develop quite nicely without its presence


Abiding in Bolivia takes down the woeful crap written about Bolivia and lithium in today's WaPo article. El Duderino's article entitled "Washington Post dreams lithium while Bolivia moves ahead" takes the gringo ignorance to task (and rightly so) but is also indicative of a more general issue. Really, when are you guys going to get it through your thick skulls that South America is not tied to your Manifest Destiny apronstrings and has a whole bunch of other choices when it comes to FDI?

Colombia's unemployment problem


Underreported by English language media (I wonder why?) was this week's unemployment report from Colombia's DANE stats office (sidebar: DANE is one of the very few gov't run stats offices in South America that gives out unbiased, statistically solid reliable data and has not buckled under the pressures to manipulate data from gov't circles, as so obvious in places like Argentina and Peru). The 12.6% unemployment rate announced was a full percentage point up from the June figure and means there are some 2.7m Colombians out of work right now.

Not a good start for President Santos, who made job creation one of the mainstays in his recent election campaign. In fact, his repeated "More Jobs" mantra that started when up against poll pressure from Mockus and became the central theme of his succesfully retooled campaign far outweighed any talk about anti-terrorism, human rights and all the things we gringos wring our hands about when it comes to Colombia. Even in South America it's the economy, stupid.

So Santos, who promised to created up to 2.5 million new jobs and make half a million informal jobs official during his 2010-2014 mandate, gets his cold bucket of reality that's made even icier when the 34.2% underemployed rate is added to the mix. That's a lot of people not putting in a full day's work, people. But as the chart above shows, he's up against an unemployment issue that's long ingrained into Colombia's economy. The current 12.6% jobless rate may be high but it's not unusual either in a country that has rarely seen a sub 10% level (and never for any significant period of time).

Finally, it's worth reflecting that fighting unemployment is one of the best ways of fighting terrorism, too. Those 12% jobless are fodder for the paramilitary and FARC who can offer them food, lodgings and even salaries in exchange for shooting up villages and extorting businesses.

Chart of the day is.....

...silver, a chart sent in to your humble scribe by reader 'A' yesterday afternoon (a respected market player) with "silver looks decent from here" the short comment that came with it.


Looks all chartist mumbojumbo to me, but then again WTFDIK? I personally prefer the chart below, that shows GLD versus SLV for the period that both have existed together and demonstrates just how badly silver has perfromed compared to gold in these last four years, this despite all the rabid silverbugs telling me all along that line how Ag was about to explode and zoom and to da moon Alice and get on NOW and all that jazz (then there's all that silverbug stuff about raptures and ends of times, but we'll let those slide for today).

Casey Research frontruns its own sheep again


Here we go with another episode of the Casey scammers doing their thing. We bullet point.
1) Bayfield Ventures (BYV.v) is the name this time and three months ago Casey got his flock involved in a private placement on the thing (a full share and a warrant). Amazingly enough, the placement came out of lock-up on September 1st (see below).

2) Last Wednesday August 25th after BYV.v released news, Casey Research alerted its premium high paying clients about the stock and even went as far as to "suggest" that it would pump the stock to its proletariat subscribers in the September issue of its box standard monthly "International Spectator". At that time BYV.v traded at 54c.

3) And lo and behold! After opening at 57c today BYV.v suddenly got da pump from Casey Research and the stock jumped to close at 66c on nearly 10X average volume today. And let's recall, today is also the day that those placement shares pumped by Casey became free-trading.

Is this legal? I really don't know, but as I do know the BCSC is a regular reader round here I'm sure we'll find out sooner or later. But legal or not, it's a demonstration of the morals of an utter scoundrel. And of course, it's not the first time the Casey bullshitters have pulled this kind of scheme. Hey David Galland, feel like filing suit on me yet? I'd love it....make my day.

DYODD, dude

9/1/10

Fulp to do REEs on BNN

Thanks to kind reader 'JC' for this headsup. Tomorrow morning (Thursday) Mercenary Geologist Mickey Fulp is on BNN, doing the talkinghead bit and talking Rare Earths (REE). Here's 'JC's mail:

Otto

This is Thurs. lineup on BNN.

11:30 AM – Commodities
MAG's Moly/Gold Discovery: Dan MacInnes, president and CEO, MAG Silver
How to play Rare Earths: Mickey Fulp, author, the Mercenary Geologist.com

Regards


So check it out, folks.

Trading Post (after the fact edition)


Just to ring the changes, a Trading Post well after bell.

Fortuna Silver (FVI.to) up 3.0% at $2.76 on heavy volumes. Oh Wayne......waddya gonna do now, dude?

Lumina Copper (LCC.v) down 5.2% at $2.36. This Beaty vehicle went on a helluva ride in August but has given up just a tad of its impressive gains on this first day of the new month.

ECU Silver (ECU.to) down 4.4% at $0.65.....just can't keep it up, Mikey. Disgraceful innit?

Jaguar Mining (JAG) up 4.6% at U$6.15. Repeat buyers of JAG are now showing signs madness, according to Albert E's definition at least. You know the one about doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result, don't you?

U.S. Silver (USA.v) up 10% at $0.275, also on heavy volume. Somebody's accumulating here. Somebody with initials 'TK', perchance?

Medoro Resources (MRS.v) down 10.3% at $1.75 on double volumes. C'mon Zeds, Frankie wants you to pump harder! i mean, it's gold, it's Colombia, what could possibly be wrong with this stock? Oh yeah....the fact it's an overhyped PoS the locals hate with a vengeance...i nearly forgot.

When wimpy, no-balls price target calls bite back

On Monday Wayne Hewgill of PI Fincorp took the news out of Fortuna Silver (FVI.to), crunched his numbers and raised his target....from $2,45 to $2.70 (report linked here). And here we are just three days later and FVI.to has crashed through his "upgrade" (using the term as loosely as possible) so presumably there's a whole swathe of PI Fincorp clients that'll be hitting the sell button this morning...that right Wayne?

It wouldn't be so bad, but this is the fifth time (!!) Hewgill has changed his call on FVI.to since September 2009 and always by a few pennies here and a few pennies there. Seriously dude, grow a pair. Take a good look at kitty here cos there's a lesson here for yaz:
They're called cojones. Get some.

More Peru mining production stats

So I put up the post just an hour ago that clearly shows how Peru's exports are riding their luck and immediately (and I mean within half an hour) the "you're just cherrypicking" mail arrives from one the sillypeople that is ignorant to stick up for the corruptos running Peru. So let's first point out this:

Ahhhh I feel better now. Let's plough straight on with the monthly metals production figures for Peru in the period 2006 to date. Starting with copper, the only one that has made some sort of significant move (and I betcha that you can guess when the Cerro Verde expansion came online):

Next gold:

Here's silver:

Here's zinc:

Here's lead:

Here's iron ore:

Here's tin

Here's molybdenum:

All data from Peru's Ministry of Energy and Mining. You see that amazing production expansion? You don't? Oh wow, there's one for owly to comment upon: