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9/18/10

Peru municipal elections surprise candidate?

One of the two people pictured in this election poster is running for the job of mayor of Barranco, one of the 43 districts of Lima. The other isn't.

UPDATE: That regular reader and commenter Cansarnoso, he's a sharp one I'm telling you:

Quantity not quality

Reader 'XJ' (yes, those really are her initials) mailed last night to inform your humble and rather surprised scribe that some time early this week IKN passed the 5,000 posts milestone. Just thought I'd tell you, being Saturday and that.

Post Nº 5,030, signing off.


Geekfest free giveaway reprise

The free giveaway page stuck here at IKN last Sunday evening went down well with you guys and plenty took advantage of the free reports and offers available, so by way of a weekend extra here it is again. 

Just click on the one (or ones) that grab your fancy, fill in the simple form (that demands no sensitive info, no credit card numbers, nothing like that....these really are 100% free) and it's done. Time to get smart on your preferred corner of geekdom, dudettes and dudes


Build Your Own WordPress Site Guide Everyone has a place on the web nowadays, whether you're a construction professional, an auctioning.. Ten Innovative Ways to Use Twitter for Business Increasingly more companies use Twitter for business – to do market research, do brand.. A Computer Geek's Smart Productivity Guide In this free twenty-paged PDF, you will find out the most common productivity mistakes, as well..
Twitter: Best Practices and Tips If you've felt like tweeting for quite some time now, but didn't know where to start, this guide is for you... A Newbie's Getting Started Guide to Linux Learn the basics of the Linux operating systems. Get to know what it is all about, and familiarize.. The Mac Manual This guide supplies you with numerous tips, tricks and free applications. Get the hang of the interface and discover what..
The Windows 7 Guide: From Newbies to Pros The Proper Introduction to Windows 7.. The Ultimate Guide to Gmail Gmail has profited from Google's innovations to become a very popular email service and it has differentiated.. The Beginner's Guide to Joomla An Introduction to an Award-Winning Content Management System (CMS)...
The Underground Guide To The iPhone Read about the basic user interface and a ton of incredible iPhone features you would've otherwise.. The Ultimate Guide To Your Windows Mobile Phone This 50 page guide starts at the very basics of Windows Mobile, and quietly builds up its.. The Incredible Guide to NEW Ubuntu (Karmic Koala) There are a lot of people still stuck with Windows because it's the ‘easier..
The Easy Guide To Computer Networks Included are step-by-step guides on how to set up different kinds of networks, how to use them to share.. The Essential Guide to Digital Photography is for readers wanting to learn digital photography for the first time or build upon existing..

A room with a view (part 22)

"Over such trivialities as these many a valuable hour may slip away, and the
traveller who has gone to Italy to study the tactile values of Giotto, or the
corruption of the Papacy, may return remembering nothing but the
blue sky and the men and women who live under it."

A Room With A View, E.M. Forster (1908)


Rural Arauca, Colombia.


Reader 'P' who sent this in says the locals call this area 'Paradise'. Guess why.

¡Feliz 200 Años Chile!

The bicentennaries are coming thick and fast, what with Mexico earlier in the week. Chile turns 200 years old today and we salute the country.

9/17/10

Shana tova

Via Andrew Sullivan, these words written by Martin Peretz, blogger at The New Republic, reach your humble author's eyes. 
"I myself have much to ask forgiveness for, and much of this asking will be done in private, as is appropriate. But there are sins that are committed in public, and in this past year I have publicly committed the sin of wild and wounding language, especially hurtful to our Muslim brothers and sisters. I do not console myself that many other Americans at this moment are committing the same transgressions, against others. I allowed emotion to run way ahead of reason, and feelings to trample arguments. For this I am sorry."
Well said, Martin. His full article is here

Friday OT Extra: Rodbexa; Con las bases me la juego

A remarkable campaign ad, the best that I (and the person who gave me the headsup) have ever seen.


Rodbexa raps pro-PSUV for the sept 26th elections in Venezuela and probably adds 5% to Chávez's totals with this, it's so good. Kicking music and utterly adore the signer (yep, that's spelled right) at the end. You have no idea what you're missing up there. Full 3+ minute mp3 download here

The Friday OT: INXS; Elegantly Wasted

My personal fave INXS track


Rock In Peace, Michael.

Trading Post (polyunsaturated edition)


Copper Fox (CUU.v) up 5.1% at 82c and its NR today reeks of retail promo bullshit. I mean, what other reason can there be for line after line of redflaggable "oh look, we got visible mineralization in the drillcores" before the assay grades are known? We've seen this movie before, they don't have happy endings. Take your profits, specplayers.

Carpathian (CPN.to) up 9.1% at $0.54 on very strong volumes and reacting today to the GBU news. CPN is one we tried and failed at earlier in the year over at The IKN Weekly, with the recent strong upmove coming after we gave up on the position. so be it, can't get 'em all and it's one of the things about running a recos list that's limited to 15 names at any given time. Too easy to cover 150 stocks with buy recos and claim selected victories later, isn't it Mr. Galland?

Antares Minerals (ANM.v) up 5.3% at $4.01 and that four handle really suits this stock, methinks. ANM will go higher before it's sold to a major...a lot higher. IKN Weekly reader know the author's target price and we also know John Black did a good talkinhead job yesterday.

Gold-Ore Resources (GOZ.to) UNCH at $0.72 and was 75c earlier in the day. Yeah, it was 75c earlier in the day. Like....75c. On good, liquid volumes, too. Just sayin'.

What's in The IKN Weekly this Sunday, Otto?

Hmmm, let's see.......

We got a good deep look at the numbers on one of our three top picks, we got a new buy reco added to the list, we got news of a target hit and profits taken on a recent short-term trade, we got a bit of table-banging for one particularly cheap stock on the list, we got a first-time outline of a very small spec play miner that might be ready to move (but that one's high risk), we got news of the two interviews with company CEOs that are happening very soon, we got updates on our covered stocks, we got comment on stocks we don't follow, too. 

The IKN Weekly, guaranteed to break the ice at parties.

Mining PRs and the Ottotrans™, Part 25

Today we run the Ottotrans™ over the latest news release from Metanor (MTO.v):

This is what they said:
VAL-D'OR, QUEBEC, Sep 16, 2010 (MARKETWIRE via COMTEX) -- Metanor Resources Inc. ("Metanor") is pleased to announce that the Company has been informed by its consultants that it will receive tomorrow the results of the NI 43-101 resource calculation on its very promising Barry Property. The Company plans to disseminate these results by way of press release Tuesday the 21st of September, 2010. 

Metanor Resources Inc. would again like to thank all of its shareholders for their confidence and their patience during this waiting period. 

Mr. Andre Tremblay, P Eng. is the qualified person pursuant to National Instrument 43-101 and supervised the technical information presented in the news release. 

133,595,947 outstanding shares. 

The TSX Venture Exchange neither their regulation services provider (as that term is defined in the policies of the TSX Venture Exchange) does not accept responsibility for the adequacy or accuracy of this release.

And this is what it means:
VAL-D'OR, QUEBEC, Sep 16, 2010 (MARKETWIRE via COMTEX) -- Metanor Resources Inc. ("Metanor") is pleased to release this very important news release that explains we'll be releasing an even more important very important news release once this news release is released. We know we've told you that the results of the NI 43-101 resource calculation were coming on several occasions recently but this time we're serious, ok? We're so freakin' serious that we're releasing this news release to tell you that the news release really is going to be released next week.

Metanor Resources Inc. would like to thank all of its suckers for riding this no-win stock all the way through our ridiculously exaggerated dilutive policies. 

Two on Antares (ANM.v)

Numero uno: This link to the six minute appearance that Antares (ANM.v) head honcho John Black had on BNN TV yesterday. The lad done good.

Numero dos: This report out of Stifel Nicolas this morning. It's the general metals update that house publishes, but you just gotta see page 9 and check out how ANM.v has been performing versus copper peers.
 (note to subscibers: toldya, didn't I?)

Chart of the day is....

...the gold/silver ratio (GSR), three year timespan.

 click to enlarge

Nothing much has changed, bis.

9/16/10

Tonight in Argentina: The Night of the Pencils


Learn a little about why thousands of students are marching in La Plata, Buenos Aires and other cities of Argentina to commemorate The Night of the Pencils here and here. Learn a lot more by talking to Argentines who went through the 1970's. 

Ni olvido, ni perdón

News roundup (we don't flinch when small children stick their fingers up our nostrils)

 Miguel Angel: Enjoy your stay, send us a postcard
c

Chávez unilaterally changes his mind about his role as president and announces he's staying in charge until 2014*

Uruguay 2q10 GDP growth 10.4%, while inflation is targetted at less than 7%. Both those numbers are high.

Venezuela has 251 billion barrels of oil as official reserves, placing the country second in reserve count behind Saudi Arabia. This has nothing to do with any sort of political friction between Venezuela and the countries that it supplies, of course.

Peru's Lourdes Flores, joint leader with Susana Villaran in the tight race for Mayor of Lima in the October 3rd election, says she "doesn't care less" about the job, but that subdued link above in English doesn't mention that she also said they could "stick the Mayor's job up their ass(es), what do I care about being Mayor" or that her election advisor tried to change the results of an opinion poll by talking with the head of the polling company. The conversations were recorded on an illegal wiretrap and Peru cares more about the illegal means of the recording than what Flores said. Strange country.

Colombia: Miguel Angel Rangel Sosa, ex congressman for the Bolivar region of Colombia (Uribe era, surprise surprise) was today sentenced to seven years in jail for collaborating with and promoting the illegal ultra right wing paramilitary groups in his region, responsible for mass killings, extorsion and other forms of very nastiness including calling on the paras to kill a witness who was accusing him of said corruption. This one is unlikely to feature in your evening news show tonight.


*who did you think I was talking about?

Ignore it and it doesn't go away (it gets worse)

A reflection on Evo Morales's view of the recent report on drugs sent to the US Sentate by the Obama administration and how Bolivia has apparently "demonstrably failed in the fight against drugs" (their stupid phraseology, not mine) (UPDATE: Bolivia Weekly explains in English):

2003: USA writes a report for US consumption about how horrible drugs are and how the little brown people are to blame. Little brown people reject the US view. Nothing is done, situation gets a little worse.

2004: USA writes a report for US consumption about how horrible drugs are and how the little brown people are to blame. Little brown people reject the US view. Nothing is done, situation gets a little worse.

2005: USA writes a report for US consumption about how horrible drugs are and how the little brown people are to blame. Little brown people reject the US view. Nothing is done, situation gets a little worse.

2006: USA writes a report for US consumption about how horrible drugs are and how the little brown people are to blame. Little brown people reject the US view. Nothing is done, situation gets a little worse.

2007: USA writes a report for US consumption about how horrible drugs are and how the little brown people are to blame. Little brown people reject the US view. Nothing is done, situation gets a little worse.

2008: USA writes a report for US consumption about how horrible drugs are and how the little brown people are to blame. Little brown people reject the US view. Nothing is done, situation gets a little worse.

2009: USA writes a report for US consumption about how horrible drugs are and how the little brown people are to blame. Little brown people reject the US view. Nothing is done, situation gets a little worse.

2010: USA writes a report for US consumption about how horrible drugs are and how the little brown people are to blame. Little brown people reject the US view. Nothing is done, situation gets a little worse.

If you look very closely you may be able to spot a trend. Meanwhile, when Evo says that Bolivia is being hard done by and the US's position is simply political, he does have plenty of facts to back that up.

Jim Schultz's Blog From Bolivia closes down

Click here to go read the last post at Blog From Bolivia, published yesterday evening. Jim Schultz makes some interesting points in his farewell address, but perhaps the fact that Bolivia's issues are evermore domestic and less directly concerned with foreign affairs is the most relevant and hopeful for the country. He's also right about blogging...from an academic viewpoint, at least. Six years is a long time to run a blog, so says someone who's 2 1/2 years in and counting. 

Jim, good luck with the planned metamorphosis and in whatever you move on to next, sir. Yours was truly the pathfinder blog on your beloved country and IKN salutes you.

While we're in the mood to check up on zero-moral gold scammers and pump artists out there.......

....let's check on how Porter Stansberry and his ridiculous pump of Nautilus Minerals (NUS.to) is doing.

  • In this post dated July 12th we noted the sharp spike on the key day of Porter's Stansberry's bullshit scam and told it like it was as the stock broke through $2.65
"If you adhere to the view that it's only correct for intelligant people to take money away from stupid people then today's the day to short Nautilus Minerals (NUS.to). It's also the day that Porter Scamsberry unleashed his proletariat on this woefully bad pump job (it's up 10% at the bell...make that 15)."

So let's see how NUS.to has done since then:


What, $1.81? In the middle of a massive melt-up gold bull and your star stock pick is 31.6% down, Porter?  Cue owly:
Feeling stupid yet, Porter? Probably not, cos you're so pleased with yourself about ripping off thousands of sheep with your disgusting market tactics that you actually think you're clever, ain't that right you freakin' scumbag moron?

Three steps to make money in the junior mining market

Step One: Watch as Greg McCoach pumps the latest drill result at Explor Resources (EXS.v) to his flock of mouthbreathers.

Step Two: Wait until all the mouthbreathers are safely on board.
Step Three: Short the pig. The end.

EXS.v came out with a drill intercept yesterday that at first glance passes muster, what with 11.15m of 5.38g/t gold to put in the headline. It's enough for the very silly McCoach to rouse his rabble with, that's for sure. But what he's probably not pointing out in his urgent updates to clients (his service costs $2,000 a year) is that it's a confirmation drill hole at the same property that was drilled and announced in September 2009. Check how EXS.v ramped on the original pump promo campaign from the publication of those drill numbers and see what it finally did when the truth of the very same "Timmins Porcupine West" property came to light in March this year.
The intercept also came nearly 700m underground, which may cause a minor technical issue or two at the moment of attempting to mine the stuff at a profit. But the fact that this Porcupine West asset has clearly failed to show enough to be considered a live prospect will never stop a bullshit scamster like McCoach. LOOK AT THE DRILL NUMBERS! ELEVEN METRES OF GOOOOOLD!!!

And yes, this is the very same Greg McCoach and the very same pump we featured in this post on IKN, dated June 16th.  DYODD.

Douglas Lake (DLKM.ob) was stupid and didn't bribe Stockhouse with advertising

The latest Stockhouse advertisement revenue campaign has kicked off! And guess what? Yup, it's crap! Here's how the latest issue of "The Short Report" , Stockhouse's effort that's (supposedly at least...or at least marketed as such) gonna help clean up them there mean streets sustarts:

Having racked up accumulated losses of $30 million in the last six years, Douglas Lake Minerals Inc.OTC:BB: DLKM, Stock Forum) does not have much to show for money spent on its exploration properties in Tanzania, East Africa. (
Since January 2004, the company has incurred $19.5 million in mineral property costs and $7.5 million in consulting expenses.
But that hasn’t prevented the shares from almost tripling in value in the last few weeks from 10 cents in mid August. On Wednesday, after a bout of profit taking, the stock was trading at 29 cents, down from 34 cents on September 9.
At current levels, Douglas Lake has a market cap of $21.3 million based on the 72.3 million shares that were outstanding on August 12.
That seems high for a company that is engaged in risky, early stage mineral exploration and has generated no operating revenue since its inception. The company posted a net loss of $2 million or 3 cents a share in the year ended May 31, 2010 -- when it had zero cash --, compared to a loss of $4.7 million or 8 cents in the same period last year.
On August 23, Douglas Lake issued six million restricted common shares, (upon the cashless exercise of stock options) at an exercise price of $0.05 per share, according to documents filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
The shares were issued outside the United States to four non-U.S. persons who have not been named.
Douglas Lake is headed by Surrey, B.C.-based chief executive officer Harp Sangha, who could not be reached for comment on this story.
Sangha is a 46-year-old yada yada continues here

What a waste of time. A freakin two bit OTC that popped after six months of farting around gets the attention of the almighty Stockhouse? Jeesh, its is the kind of company that even your humble scribe and his ratty corner of cyberspace shrugs his shoulders at and says "yeah, scammy...big deal...obvious though" and never says a word. 

If it isn't clear to you by now that all Stockhouse is doing is trying to drum up advertising revenues from the hundreds of scammy juniors out there (i.e. you think it likely that a SH sponsor gets featured on "Short Report?"...you think it might be a good idea for the scammy juniors to run a small advert box as of today?) then I have a bridge that you may in interested in purchasing. Easy financing terms, too.

Stockhouse is just a big a scam as DLKM.ob, folks. The lack of useful information and inane crap served up as insight is why I stopped visiting stockhouse and other bullboards years ago.

Chart of the day is.....

...the Peru IGBVL "General" Index, 24 months.

We noted it the other day. Since then it broke out. Now at 16,561 and getting plenty of love from its mining components.

9/15/10

Antares Minerals (ANM.v): TV exposure time

According to this, there might even be something worth watching on the box tomorrow:

BNN Commodities with Andrew Bell, September 16
John Black, president, Antares Minerals
Focus: Antares Minerals has a new scoping study out on its Haquira copper-moly-gold project in Peru. BNN talks to John Black, CEO, Antares Minerals about the project's production potential and the prospects for shareholder value.

Happy 200th birthday, Mexico

And make it a good party up there, people.


¡QUE VIVA MEXICO!

Bolivia: Just when you thought you'd seen it all.....

....something turns up to stop you in your tracks and make that whistling sound between your teeth that you make when you realize that you haven't seen it all after all. In this case, the shocker is MIAMI HERALD GIVES FAIR COVERAGE TO BOLIVIA! Yes it's true, check out this report that starts like this

Bolivia's progressive economic model spurs growth

Bolivia saw some of the region's strongest economic growth last year thanks to its socially progressive economic model that bucks traditional capitalism and the neoliberal policies that have ruled the nation for decades, Bolivian Minister of Economy and Public Finance Luis Alberto Arce said Tuesday.
Speaking at the inauguration of the Americas Conference in Coral Gables, Arce said the nation's decision to nationalize oil production, electricity and other strategic sectors have helped insulate it from the global economic crisis.
The Andean nation saw GDP growth of 3.4 percent last year and had unemployment near 7.9 percent -- both strong results in South America.
``There's not one recipe for all countries and we decided to rethink our own economic model,'' Arce said. ``This is [policy] made by Bolivians for Bolivia.''
Since first taking office in 2006, Bolivian President Evo Morales has nationalized key industries and said he favors a system that shifts economic power away from the private sector to indigenous groups and social cooperatives.
Now, the country is running an economic surplus, is seeing the return of foreign direct investment and has helped reduce poverty CONTINUES HERE


But please, esteemed lector of IKN, do take time to check out the comments section in that report because it seems the morons that hang out at the MH are disgusted about having to read a few facts for a change.

Congratulations, Mexico Mike

IKN Nerve Centre would like to take time out to commend our old pal and mucker, "Mexico" Mike Kachanovky, as we note his standout silver pick, ECU Silver (ECU.to) has rallied up to 73c this morning.

This is great news for all the people that Mexico Mike has steered into ECU.to with his non-stop recommendations for the stock, as now it's only four cents away from breaking even on the year. An impressive achievement, especially when sat next to the sector's laggards like US Silver (USA.v) up 60%, Fortuna Silver (FVI.to) up 38%, First Majestic (FR.to) up 32%,MAG Silver (MAG.to)(MVG) up 29% and the silver ETF (SLV) up 18%....oh wait a minute...something wrong with that last sentence.....

Never mind, cos you know it takes real talent to pick out and give big fat pumped up recommends to a junior silver producer* that underperforms the metal it produces by so much....but that's the talent of Mexico Mike.

In a totally unrelated sidebar, we note that ECU Silver (ECU.to) is a sponsor of Mexico Mike's website and has been for years on end. But this really has nothing to do with the bad analysis, the convenient ignorance of key facts and the bile-ridden defence of the company that Mexico Mike puts up. Oh no no no.

So congrats once again to Mexico Mike. Hey dude, if this keeps on and you're lucky, those options they gave you may even go in the money!

*loosely speaking, of course, as strictly speaking ECU.to isn't a producing silver miner but an exploration company

When all boats rise

What follows is the intro section to IKN70, out September 5th. The only thing that's changed is that names of companies The IKN Weekly current recommends are blanked out, in respect to subscribers who pay good money for the information. In this note we explain two basic things that most newsletters wouldn't point out to people paying them money.


1) When all boats are rising in the junior market, you don't need to do much more than avoid the scams to be a winning trader.
2) You don't need to waste money on newsletters. Really.

Read on, dear reader. :


When all boats rise
We’re in a secular bull market for gold, but if you don’t believe me (!) here’s the chart for the gold ETF (GLD) from inception to last Friday. 
(Chart removed)

So while we’re at it, The IKN Weekly would also like to point out other glaringly obvious bull markets for copper, for silver and the decent recoveries in other metals such as Fe, Zn, Pt, Pd, Al, Ni, Mo..... (we can continue, but the point should have been made by now).

Now for sure we can chat about the late’08 deflation drop (and the chances of seeing one this year, perhaps a popular topic in the week to come now that Labor Day is upon us) and the rebound since then. We could note a few of the jitters we’ve seen since late’08 and the ongoing debate about macro recovery, macro inertia or macro double dip, however we’re going to cut straight to the chase and talk about what’s happening right now in the junior mining market. This can be summed up in a simple and oft-used phrase:

All boats are rising.

This is a good thing as far as we, retail investors in the juniors, are concerned. Over the last few weeks (and particularly noted by your author last week) a new underlying dynamic has been moving the market.

  • It’s a junior? Got gold? Buy it.

  • Produces silver? Makes a profit? Buy it.

  • It’s an explorer? Big copper deposit? Buy it.

  • This team successful before with other juniors? They run a new company? Buy it.

  • Rare earths? No further comments needed, just buy it.

People aren’t asking too many questions. People want in to the market for gold, for copper, for juniors, for precious and base metals exposure. People with fresh money are suddenly finding great value in stocks that longtime followers of juniors saw as great value a year ago and at fractions of today’s prices. People are now willing to pay up for producers to new, more expanded PE ratios. People are looking at gold explorers and paying $50/oz in situ when just a couple of months ago others turned their noses up about paying $25/oz for the same stock. People that run gold companies are buying juniors at significant premiums (see XAU.to and AND.to for very topical examples, plenty more too). Here come some specigic examples:

Case in point 1: Riverside Resources (RRI.v). RRI had some decently good newsflow recently, especially the segments on its close-and-closer ties with Cliffs (CLF), but neither has it made a massive, gamechanging mineral discovery. Here’s the chart:
(Chart removed)


At the end of June, RRI.v stood at 58c. At the end of July RRI stood at 63c. It’s now 87c. And let’s state clearly that although I’m not holding RRI right now I’m very pleased for Jean-Mark Staude and all the RRI.v team. These are top quality people going about their business and getting deserved recognition, but why have they had to wait until now to get this much love?

Case in point 2: Oceanagold (OGC.to) (OGC.ax). Featured in a NOBS report just a couple of weeks ago, we liked the look of OGC and called it a “market perform” without adding it to our ‘Stocks to Follow’ list here at the Weekly. The date was August 15th and the OGC price at the time was C$2.79. Here’s the one month chart:
(Chart removed)


We’re now C$3.54, which is 26.9% up in the space of three weeks. In that time, OGC has simply been going about its business correctly and mining for gold. What’s changed?

Case in point 3: Fronteer Gold (FRG) (FRG.to) and AuEx Ventures (XAU.to). This year-to-date chart below shows how the market has loved and appreciated FRG during 2010 while giving less appreciation to XAU.to. Then came this week’s buyout and suddenly the two stocks are (give or take a couple of points) equally excellent performers for the year.
(Chart removed)


What’s changed? Somebody stepping up and paying in a different manner than the above two examples, but in the long run it’s the same story.

We could offer up dozens of other examples, but stick with the three charts and four companies mentioned above because we’ve followed them on these pages, the management in every case do solid jobs and they’re all good winning trades, too. But also importantly, with the exception of Fronteer they are stocks that are not currently featured as open positions on The IKN Weekly ‘Stock to Follow’ list. This is also a theme that’s picked up in today’s ‘Market Watching’, where we review how some of the companies we’ve featured in recent editions have got on since getting coverage in the Weekly but without making it to the ‘Stocks to Follow’ list.

The basic point about to be made is straightforward but it’s also of fundamental importance to the investor. In times like these you don’t have to do much more than avoid the scammy stocks to make money in this sector. Make sure you do the necessary DD, miss out on the stocks run by people with bad track records and you’ll make money. When all boats rise, the best ones may rise faster (and if the tide goes out they tend to drop less) but the call on the sector is the most important one to get right. The fact that you’re reading these words means you’re in the right ballpark already, so do you really need to pay for something you understand already? “Buy juniors” is the bottom line message of any newsletter writer at times like these. It’s like paying someone to tell you “drink water” or “eat food” or “I advise you not to smoke”.

No guru
The message is simple. YOU DON’T NEED ME TO MAKE MONEY. You really, truly do not. All you need to do when times are good in the junior mining world is:

1)      Avoid the scams
2)      Be long
3)      Be patient

That’s all, folks. And even point 1) is somewhat debatable if the current bullish sentiment lasts for a protracted period, because once the “good’uns” have launched up and away, people sitting on fat profits will start looking around for stocks that haven’t done so well, with some of that cash getting poured into companies with dubious track records (to put it mildly). The herd is as the herd does, time after time.

There does come a moment when things like newsletter recos become superfluous. Why pay some guy like me $25 a month when you don’t need to do much more than buy a basket of stocks and see your net worth rise nicely? In the same way that you don’t need to read the latest repetition of “buy gold” from your favourite tinfoilhat goldbug writer who manages to wrap up that same message in myriad ways for years on end, you do not, repeat do not need to read The IKN Weekly repeating for the umpteenth time that XXXXXXXX is a Top Pick buy; for one thing it’s going to rise no matter what I say and for another its peers will also offer up solid gains (and by peers I mean good stocks like First Majestic (FR.to), on a most excellent run on solid fundy results recently). You don’t need me to tell you to have more money in XXXXXX than XXXXX even though both figure on the list. You don’t need me to explain how the thinking behind a long-term hold such as XXXXXXX is different to the short-term trade in XXXXXXXX or that they’re listed for different reasons.

Also, while considering whether you really want to continue paying this author $25 a month, please note that the ‘Stocks to Follow’ list is limited in its scope to a maximum of 15 names at any given time. This is a quite deliberate plan but also means that it’s going to miss winners in times like these when all boats rise. While we’re at it, note that the fare offered is largely LatAm only. No Canada, no Africa, no Yukon, no Mongolia, no Kaminak, no Volta Resources, no Inter-Citic, no Tasman.

But on the other hand, The IKN Weekly tries its hardest to treat its audience with the respect it deserves. An example of this is the way we feature interesting stocks and stories in occasional NOBS reports and in the ‘Market Watching’ section without them making it to a formal recommended status. We also run coverage on stocks that we advise against holding and explain why. These aren’t done as simple fillers for the Weekly but are always included for good reason. Your author is acutely aware that his, personal, final “buy/hold/sell” decisions are different to other people’s and for various reasons, but this shouldn’t stop The IKN Weekly from highlighting stocks that are interesting and may suit its readership down to a tee. A recent example of this is Batero Gold (BAT.v) which (as explained at the time) is not for me but may well suit you people, the subscribers. As it happens, BAT.v has risen in a pleasant though modest way in the two weeks since that first reco and if you bought at the time you’re holding a winner. I didn’t buy, but that’s no impediment to you! This author is never going to impose his investment style on his readership but he has no problem in relating good, interesting, meritworthy stories that others can profit from.

On moving fingers: Back to bullish thoughts. The famous line from Omar Kayyam’s Rubaiyat comes to mind at bullish times like these, even though it’s out of context:

The moving finger writes, and having writ moves on.”

Last week the moving finger writ (or pointed) at XAU.to and at AND.to. The moving finger saw Minera Andes (MAI.to) suddenly catch a whole ton of bids when just 24 hours earlier it was operating at volumes ten times lower. Your author also firmly believes the moving finger will write the name XXXXXXXX clearly for all to see in the not-too-distant future and wake the stock up from its ongoing funk. But that’s just me and you may well have a different opinion, so again we propose that maybe it’s time for you to consider whether, in bullish times like these, it’s really worth paying a newsletter writer to tell you things that are either wrong or obvious. 

Peru FinMin byebye: The only thing Reuters got wrong was the timing

Last night's cabinet reshuffle in Peru saw the now ex-FinMin Mercedes Araoz replaced by traditional Peru upper class family member (and banker) Ismael Benavides (a decent potted history of the dude here at Reuters this morning).

Speaking of Reuters, do you remember back to August 17th when Reuters Peru broke the story about Mercedes Araoz getting the boot? We at IKN do and recognize that the newswire got a decent scoop, even though its timing was off by something less than a month (they said it was going to happen that week). The very next day, President Twobreakfasts himself stepped up to deny it all, saying, "She's my star minister, how can I possibly get rid of her?". Four weeks later, this supposed "star minister exits stage left saying how this move was "a good option" for her because she could "concentrate on her professional life". What bollocks! I think we can safely say that Reuters is a very well connected newswire down Lima way. We can also say that Garcia is a two-faced crudball, but that's not going to come as much surprise.

Meanwhile, the change at the FinMin won't mean any sort of change in the running of Peru's economy, as all the people who have sat as FinMin recently have done the right thing: don't touch the controls and let the country run on the autopilot put that was set seven years ago by PPK......and then pretend the current government is the one that's done all the hard work.

Chart of the day is.....

...the US Dollar index, daily candles:

The USD, also known as the original US zero coupon bond. Today's pattern sure looks similar to March/May 2009

9/14/10

I can't even think of a title for this post...

 ....so just watch the video.


Trading Post (ballet class edition)


Fortuna Silver (FVI.to) up 7.0% at $3.20 on 6X average volumes, an acceptable day's trading.

Constitution Mining (CMIN.ob) down 17.0% at $0.39. On a day that spot gold racks up a new all time high, you can reasonably assume the market is telling you something basic about this company today.

Vena Resources (VEM.to) up 9.5% at $0.23. We've been talking about the tough time this company has been going through (marketwise at least) in the last couple of editions of the Weekly, but these last two trading sessions are looking like marking something of a turnaround. Today's pleasing pop has come on the back of very solid volumes, too. More in IKN72, subbers.

Minefinders (MFN) up 6.2% at U$10.57. I was accused of bias against MFN in my mailbox this morning. And yeah, I am. I'm biased against underachieving companies that get pumped to the unaware by all normal channels neck-deep in sweetheart options and warrants. I'm biased against miners with pisspoor track records who'll most likely  keep on promising the earth and keep on screwing up and saying "oh, but it'll be all right next qaurter...pretty promise!" I'm biased against a company that manages to tear a freakin' big rip in its heap leach tarp after just one year of use! I'm biased against paid pumpers who'll whore their writing for a few pieces of silver. So yes, I'm biased. Got a problem with that?

Cocaine Cooked the Brain


The efforts of Bolivia to control narcotrafficking in the country don't count any more, because they're not done under the auspices of the Monroe Doctrine or the notably corrupt US DEA. So the following has not been explained to you this year:

Bolivia's government set out to erradicate 5,000 hectares of illegal coca plantations in 2010. It has already reached that figure and now hopes to reach an unprecedented target of 8,000Ha.

Its FELCN anti-drugs police force has so far this year seized 21.3 tonnes of cocaine or cocaine paste, 965 tonnes of marijuana.

The same FELCN is cutting at the root of the problem too, by destroying so far this year 19 crystallization plants, 14 cocaine recycling labs, 4,129 factories (when unrefined paste is produced) and destroying 5,761 maceration pits.

The verifiable statistics, overseen by the UN, are available on this website (spanish language)

Meanwhile, reflect that Peru, a "good guy" nation according to your bullshit politicos up there, produces around 300 tonnes of cocaine and so far this year has managed to confiscate 28 tonnes of "drugs" (all types, including cocaine, maryjane etc). Bolivia, this awful bad boy nation in the WarOnDrugs™, produces around 110 tonnes and gets rid of 21.3mt. Now do the math.

We leave you with this utterly megagood kickin' track from US band Nico Vega. If you've never heard of these guys, change that now to immediately increase the quality of your life.


Damn, this rocks.

Fortuna Silver (FVI.to) new 52 week high

IKN shamelessly rah-rahs and hi-fives and all that jazz, because the Weekly's biggest and best reco has just zipped to a new 52 week high this morning.

Man, this company is so good it makes money for everybody. That's no mean achievement, folks.

Peru's cabinet reshuffle

Today's the day Twobreakfasts reshuffles his cabinet, with many ministers about the get resigned going  happily because they want to run for this-or-that job in next year's election round (e.g. the current PM). But one name, Defence Minister Rafael Rey, is going because of this story nicely encapsulated by Reuters last night

LIMA (Reuters) - Peru's embattled President Alan Garcia asked Congress on Monday to repeal a decree he issued two weeks ago that gave virtual amnesty to hundreds of people accused of atrocities during a civil war that killed 69,000.
Garcia backtracked only hours after acclaimed Peruvian novelist Mario Vargas Llosa harshly criticized him in a letter in which he resigned as head of a commission appointed to build a museum to honor victims of the 1980-2000 conflict, which was one of the bloodiest ever in Latin America.
Garcia's decree said that defendants in trials for human rights crimes committed before 2003 must be sentenced within 36 months of the start of their trial.
As most of the hundreds of pending cases have been bogged down for years, Vargas Llosa called the measure an "amnesty in disguise." Other critics have said the measure could violate the U.N. agreements on human rights signed by Peru.
Peru's Truth and Reconciliation Commission found that widespread rights abuses occurred during the 1990-2000 presidency of Alberto Fujimori and, to a lesser extent, during Garcia's first term in the 1980s.
Fujimori has been convicted for rights crimes, and activists say they want to put Garcia on trial, too.
"This is truly a disgrace that will revive political divisions in the country, precisely at a time of exceptional (economic) progress and during an election that should be used to reinforce our legal institutions and democracy," Vargas Llosa wrote in his letter CONTINUES HERE

As pointed out in the piece it was Twobreakfasts himself who signed off on the decree, but the real brains behind this disgusting piece of legislation is Rafael Rey, nasty shit, two faced rat, Opus Dei stalwart, Fujimori defender and general nasty piece of work in the oldschool LatAm political style. After receiving Vargas Llosa's resignation letter, Twobreakfasts apparently rang Mario, told him that Rey was toast and immediately sent to overturning proposal to Congress (where it'll get approved today).

So another chapter in PeruPolitik written. By this time tomorrow another set of stuffed suits will run the country on autopilot, the ones that are looking to parlay their power next year get free rein and one of the badduns will, hopefully at least, drop out the scene forever. Have a nice Tuesday.

UPDATE: JFS at Hemispheric Brief does a better job than IKN of recapsulating the anmesty decree issue right here. Good digest as always.

Chart of the day is....

...silver, daily candles.

 And let's check on whether the silverbug community is pleased about U$20+/oz:


Good to spread some happiness, no?.

9/13/10

Trading Post (things coming to mind edition)


Great Panther Silver (GPR.to) up a penny at 96c. While watching GPR move up last week I couldn't help but think about dog's tails. I wonder why......

Minefinders (MFN) up 6.3% at U$9.85. Aha, they're buying it again! Einstein's definition of madness comes to mind....y'know, that one about doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result.

Fortuna Silver (FVI.to) up 2.1% at $2.92 on good volumes (again). An image of cream rising to the top of a milk bottle floats across this humble author's mind's eye.
c
Dorato Resources (DRI.v) down 7.8% at $0.71. A bullshit pump artist named Christoph Berndt who rips off greenhorns in the Frankfurt market by lying to them and keeping their money comes to mind. Just the thought of scum like him getting their asses handed to themselves on a plate is enough to make my day.

Orvana (ORV.to) up 3.7% at $1.99 on the back of the Copperwood PEA news this morning. The image of dead Bolivia protestors and what Goni did to that country is enough to stop me from investing in this company....but that's just me. I hear the Spanish assets held by ORV are solid.

UPDATE: Nadagold (NG) up 6.0% at U$8.11 on 2X volumes, this update prompted by RussianBear in the comments section asking why I'd missed this move out today. I just didn't see it Russky, that's all. These days I tend to follow the crap that Canadians are stupid enough to trade and not the crap that NewYorkers are stupid enough to trade. Here in 2010 Nadagold is just a Paulson insurance policy, not much else.

Colombia export growth news

Colombia Reports has all the details

In a unique show of unity, several Colombian armed groups congratulated Lady GaGa's success at the MTV Video Music Awards and offered to reward her unconditional support for the country's armed conflict.
The letter, signed by leftist rebel leaders and bosses of neo-paramilitary gangs, was delivered to her label Interscope with an estimated 20 grams of cocaine. "Enough for a nice little celebration of the awards and plenty of inspiration," the letter said.

Continues here

The Cook appreciation society (excerpt from IKN71)

This was part of yesterday's weekly.

Cook’s intro
As usual, Brent Cook’s weekly edition of Exploration Insights (1) (out yesterday) was a mine of information and I thoroughly recommend his services to anyone interested in making money in the exploration mining sector (and no I’m not on commission or anything, and yes I’m fortunate to consider him a friend). He’s given me permission to share the first two paragraphs of yesterday’s letter here with you, the ones that paved the way for the details that came later. Frankly, I wish I’d written them:

“Speculating in minerals exploration is a very high risk endeavor in which buying an indiscriminate basket of stocks will definitely lose you money over the long term and, usually over the short term too.  My experience has been that the more selective I am, the better the odds of success-- provided the selection criteria are valid. 
c
“A more common strategy that many resource sector commentators employ is the shotgun approach.  The advantage to the shotgun strategy is that you are bound to bag a few winners and it seems to work fairly well when the entire sector is moving: not so well when the sector drops.  The disadvantage, and something I saw all too often as an analyst at a retail brokerage firm, is that retail investors tend to end up with dozens or even hundreds of stocks in their portfolio.  Usually they have very little idea why they bought most of these companies in the first place and whoever had recommended them (be it a taxi cab driver or letter writer) had failed to update them or suggest when to sell.  More often than not, this collection of orphan stocks sits in accounts at a loss and there is no liquidity, i.e. no one wants to buy them.”

IKN back. Your author agrees, with particularly strong agreement on the part about people ending up with dozens of positions. I’m also acutely aware of the difference in people’s enthusiasm about handing out buy recommendations compared to sell recommendations. There are several reasons for that, of course. One is that the tipster may not want to draw attention to his losing trades. Perhaps another is the fear people have of selling and then watching the stock take off without them, leaving cash on the table for somebody else to pick up. Also, as a market pro once suggested perhaps cynically, an analyst or letter writer with too many sell calls would be put on the blacklists for future cheap private placements.  But another point is that you really have to be darned lucky to sell well, something that people don’t like admitting. More on that another day.

Constitution Mining (CMIN.ob): It was going to happen some day or other....

...and it just happens to be today it does the 30% swandive on volume.

Cue owly:

And no, it's not some illuminati conspiracy or dirty naked shorting  or any other excuse the silly longs will cook up to paper over their ignorance; IT'S THE FUNDAMENTALS, STUPID

Start your day the Salazar Way: A smile, a cheer and a cease trade order


Now here's a different one. The BCSC, revelling in its new muscular "we're gonna clean up this town" persona, has just slapped a cease trade order on Salazar Resources (SRL.v) because it doesn't much like the contents of SRL.v's Feb 2009 technical report and says it doesn't come up to standard. If you feel like downloading the report in question, go find it on the Salazar page of SEDAR (it's 42Mb, be warned) but all you really need to know is alluded to by SRL in this morning's NR:
" On September 10, 2010, when it issued the Cease Trade Order, the BCSC advised the Company that it continued to have significant concerns about the Amended Technical Report and the qualifications, objectivity and independence of the author thereof. "
So the BCSC picks on Fredy Salazar, a guy known as one of the better, straighter shooting and more honest dudes in the junior mining sphere. I'M GOOD WITH THAT! I like this new aggressive BCSC and I like the fact they're going after anyone who's been lax with the rules (according to themselves, at least) and reputations can go hang. Meanwhile, SRL gets a serious image-slapping and its shareholders have a few days to wait and wonder what the stock is going to do once it gets out of hock. DYODD.

Copper: How they laughed when....

....The IKN Weekly started its 2010 feature section, 'The Copper Basket', back in the first issue of the year and has tracked the fate of 15 copper junior exploration companies as a group for the 35 week's since then.

Then they stopped laughing and began to do the same. Please take time to download and read this very good report from CIBC World Markets that introduces the house's own copper basket, where it chooses 25 names in The Americas currently exploring copper projects (some are the same as The IKN Weekly copper basket names, some are different). A very good read and some good screening has gone on by CIBC to whittle the list down to 25 and those names all get a page worth of close-up explaining the bones of each.

Chart of the day is.....

...the evolution of local currencies versus the US Dollar in the last three months.

Mexico's Peso has been the weakest performer recently losing some 2% versus the USD. Next the Argentine Peso and its normal slow weakening route. Then come four currencies that have appreciated versus the dollar in recent months, namely the Peruvian Nuevo Sol, Brazil's Real. Colombia's Peso and the strongest of the lot, the Chilean Peso which has gained some 8% in the period vs USD.