Happy now? Or perhaps, Christoph, it's about time your controllers told you to...
10/7/10
Christoph Berndt, criminal German scam pusher working for The Cardero Group, would like a comment on the move in Dorato Resources (DRI.v)
Happy now? Or perhaps, Christoph, it's about time your controllers told you to...
How mining analysts back down
"This was a miss on consensus and Indi (the analyst) believes any pullback on MFL today should be bought........ The Q2/10 quarter likely won’t change investor’s minds but that is backward looking and Indi believes the inflection point is right now."
MFN: Minefinders Tour Takeaways (1-SO, US$14/sh target, Indi Gopinathan): Earlier this week, Minefinders hosted Scotia clients on a tour of the Dolores gold and silver mine in Chihuahua , Mexico . In the short term, it appears the liner tear issue will negatively impact both Q3 and Q4 production as all of the Phase 1 leach pad was taken off leach in August. Indi currently models Q3 production that is 40% below guidance with Q4 figures 8% lower than company expectations. Longer term, block model reconciliation could lead to a 10% grade improvement over the average reserve grade. While short term issues continue to plague the company, Indi reiterates her 1-Sector Outperform rating and US$14/sh target with the view that Dolores is a good asset and a potential M&A target.
Rob McEwen's genius
Exploration mining investor, HANG YOUR HEAD IN SHAME
Part One
Part Two
Part Three
Mario Vargas Llosa
UPDATE: Another take:
Even better on this link
Chart of the day is.....
...silver the metal (using the ETF SLV as proxy) compared to ECU Silver (ECU.to), year to date.
UPDATE: No, I'm not "your pal" (a reader informs that you refer to me in that way). I'd rather see you in jail but unfortunately what you do isn't illegal...just totally immoral.
Peru's stock market is telling us that....
....this bull isn't stopping.
10/6/10
Batero Gold (from IKN74)
Batero (BAT.v): Making strong progress (and raising money, surprise surprise)Since we first featured Batero Gold Corp (BAT.v) in the ‘Market Watching’ secion of IKN68, the stock has gone great guns (here right is the chart that shows the performance from then to now).
(chart not shown here on blog, but visualizes the six week run from the $1.20s to $1.90s)
It has been running a $10m bought deal placement first announced on September 24th (19) at $1.60 per unit (share plus half warrant at $2.35) but last week increased the placement (20), so assuming the original overallotment ($5m gross proceeds) is going to be filled as well, BAT is now looking to add $15.75m in gross proceeds to its coffers...all very tasty and good for anything the company wants to drill for the forseeable future.
Gold explorers are in a sweet spot right now and there are plenty of management teams out there raising cash on the back of the suddenly elevated share prices. Now, it’s your guess to my own as to whether this secular bull will continue, but it’s 100% unsurprising to see the sharper teams (that word deliberately chosen, as it’s a double-edged sword) out there adding cash and securing their medium-term futures as explorers.
BAT smacked of a decent opportunity when first highlighted, though not the profile your author personally prefers. Thusly it was featured as a headsup story in ‘Market Watching’ without making it to the formal ‘Stocks to Follow’ list. Here we are, six weeks later and the stock 53.6% higher. We’ll continue to outline opportunities without making them recos in the future, highly esteemed readership, because your author continues to be acutely aware that his way of investing is not the only way of investing.
On the road (but only til tonight)
“I woke up as the sun was reddening; and that was the one distinct time in my life, the strangest moment of all, when I didn’t know who I was — I was far away from home, haunted and tired with travel, in a cheap hotel room I’d never seen, hearing the hiss of steam outside, and the creak of the old wood of the hotel, and footsteps upstairs, and all the sad sounds, and I looked at the cracked high ceiling and really didn’t know who I was for about fifteen strange seconds.”
10/5/10
Faster Pussycat, Kill Kill
Trading Post (Jon Stewart edition)
c
More Chile miner stuff
Thanks to reader 'R' for sending in this one
Rare Earths must read
"...Okay, well and good: Promotional but no big red flags for me except the hosts are complex pegmatites, which are usually small and seldom have the size and grade to make mineable ore bodies, especially in the southwestern United States.
"But then it goes to hell in a hand basket in a hurry:...."
Gold daily chart
Agreeing with Debbie Carlson
Market Nuggets: Prognosticating Gold's Path Impossible - Citigroup
(Kitco News) - With gold making new highs, investors are looking for forecasts for gold prices following actions of gold miners, central bankers or chartists. None of them have been right in the past 40 years, said Citigroup Global Markets. “When gold miners had to buy back massive hedges, they proved we should not look to them for gold-price forecasting. The same applies to central banks, which sold right at the bottom. Bankers don’t get it right, either. Many famous forecasters (high-profile academics and high-profile chartists), after gold had fallen from a high of $875/oz to $600/oz in 1981, forecast it would soon shoot above $1000. Instead, it entered a 20-year slumber party,” the bank wrote. “We now have popular forecasters (popular because they called sub-prime right) forecasting that gold is on its way to $4000/oz. It may well be. The history of unsuccessful forecasting shows it also may be on its way to $800/oz. And yet these high forecasts are no less popular than they were in 1981. As the famous saying goes, ‘Its deja vu all over again’.”
By Debbie Carlson of Kitco News
Auto sales picking up in Argentina
Meanwhile, the cynical amongst us (gosh, I feel lucky not to be one of those) could note that the economic and life-standards rebound happening in Argentina is mightily well timed for next year's Presidential election, with one of the two Ks looking to keep control of the country. Just sayin'.
Chart of the day is.....
...and here's the link to the original report. Most impressive.
10/4/10
Correa's big opinion poll boost
Go to here for more, including Correa's personal numbers.
Evo Morales, red-carded for kneeing opponent in the cojones
About time we saw this kind of action in a few regional congresses, methinks.
Thoughts on Argentina's "Glacier Law" (from IKN74)
Argentina’s ‘Glacier Law’ passes the SenateOn Thursday Argentina’s upper house, the Senate, finally voted through the so-called “Glacier Law” that’s designed to protect glaciers in the upper reaches of the Andean Cordillera and stop mining companies from disrupting them, thus guaranteeing them as a source of water supply etc. There were two law projects on the table for the Senate to vote on and the tougher-worded one of the two was passed by a vote of 35 to 33 (one abstention). Below in the appendix find a Reuters report (18) that neatly sums things up.
The practical results of the law passage (assuming President Cristina Fernandez signs it into law as she said she would) are currently under debate, with some saying the feature ‘Pascua Lama’ project of Barrick is under threat, while others saying no. So let’s make this as simple as possible: If this law threatens ABX at Pascua Lama in any way, be sure that Cristina will veto it. It’s really as simple as that. Fernandez is very pro-Pascua Lama, Barrick has already made provisions to its mining plan that mean Pascua Lama mineral directly under the nearby glacier will not be mined or even put in the mining plan and the talk from the environmental groups of this law being a triumph that will stop Pascua Lama in its tracks will be short-lived. The mine will happen, period.
However, the new law is likely to add an extra layer of bureaucracy (as if there weren’t enough already in Argentina) to other projects in the upper reaches of the Cordillera. One of the key points of the law is that Argentine Institute of Snow Research, Glaciology and Environmental Science (translated) is now in charge of making a nationwide inventory of glaciers and afterwards it will also be in charge of making the glacial studies needed for environmental permitting for any new mining project. In other words a new department is now involved in the permitting process, over and above all the current processes.
The bottom line is that 1) ABX will get its mine at Pascua Lama but 2) there may be a temporary delay or two due to it. Meanwhile 3) Argentina, already a pain in the butt when it comes to red tape, just saw another layer added to any company that wants to develop a high mountain project.
Explaining Minefinders (MFN) (MFL.to) share price action over the last 12 months
IKN offers this handy visual guide to Minefinders' (MFN) (MFL.to) share price this last year.
If you look very very closely, you may be able to spot a trend.
DYODD, dude.
c
Fortuna Silver (FVI.to): OH NOES!
You market tradery type people never cease to amuse.
Chilean trapped miner update
Piñera sez that he hopes to get them out before October 17th. This date is important to him because he's off on a beano to Europe and doesn't want to miss the photo-op. Here's the quote:
Good Lugo News
Copper Demand
ICSG sees copper market in 400,000T deficit in 2011
LONDON, Oct 1 (Reuters) - The global market for refined copper is expected to swing into a 400,000-tonne deficit for 2011 as increased economic activity boosts demand to outstrip growth of refined production, the International Copper Study Group said.The group revised its forecast to a deficit from an estimate of a 240,000 tonnes surplus, made in April. "In 2011, refined usage is again expected to increase in all major world markets, with global demand expected to rise by about 4.5 percent," the ICSG said in a note on Friday. "Industrial demand growth for copper in China, which is based on anticipated semi-manufacture production, is expected to grow by about 6 percent in 2011," it said. China is the world's top consumer of copper, accounting for about one third of total demand.The group also revised its 2010 forecast to a 200,000 tonne surplus, from an April estimate of 580,000 tonne surplus as growth in copper supply matches growth in copper demand, roughly in line with levels seen in 2009. During 2012, the market is expected to be more closely balanced, as an increase in refined copper production more than keeps pace with sustained demand growth.
Susana Villarán is the new Mayor of Lima (probably)
UPDATE: 2pm Lima time and the latest count with 65.188% of the votes officially registered is Vallarán 38.77%, Flores 37.18%. Data
Chart of the day is.....
...the IGBVL 'General' index of the Lima stock market.
So now at roughly the next stopping point...if it decides to stop, that is.
10/3/10
Brazil's Presidential election: An enormous result for Marina Silva of the Green Party
Holy wowsers! Check out the numbers with 82.29% of the votes counted already:
The IKN Weekly, out now
Fanny Lu
10/2/10
Worst ConfCall ever? Sounds like the best ever to me
Mr Lenihan had been speaking for less than two minutes on Friday before a mistake by Citigroup meant that the bank's clients were all able to be heard on the line.
Between 200 and 500 investors are understood to have been on the call, and as they realised their lines were not muted many began to heckle Mr Lenihan.
Some traders began making what one banker on the call described as "chimp sounds", while another cried out "dive, dive". A third man said "short Ireland" before adding "why not short Citi too?"
As the call descended into chaos, with one participant heard to say "this is the worst conference call ever", Citigroup officials shut down the line.CONTINUES HERE
UPDATE: Darn, knew it was too good to be totally true. Fergus in the comments section leaves this link. (y'see what I mean about the Telegraph? ugh). Still doesn't change my view about what ConfCalls should allow me to do to BSing CEOs...
Some Capital Gold (CGC) (CGC.to) shareholders are clearly pissed with the Gammon (GAM.to) (GRS) deal
Law Offices of Howard G. Smith Announces Investigation On Behalf of Shareholders of Capital Gold Corporation in Connection with the Proposed Acquisition of the Company by Gammon Gold Inc.
BENSALEM, Pa.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Law Offices of Howard G. Smith announces that it is investigating potential claims against the board of directors of Capital Gold Corporation (“Capital Gold” or the “Company”) (AMEX:CGC) related to the Company’s agreement to be acquired by Gammon Gold Inc. (“Gammon”). The proposed transaction is valued at approximately $288 million.Under the terms of the definitive merger agreement entered into by the parties, Gammon will acquire all of the outstanding common shares of Capital Gold for a cash payment of $0.79 and 0.5209 common shares of Gammon for each Capital Gold share. The proposed transaction implies a value of $4.57 per Capital Gold share, based on Gammon’s September 24, 2010 closing price on the NYSE. If the transaction is completed, it is expected that current Capital Gold shareholders will own approximately 20% of Gammon. The transaction is expected to close in late 2010. The investigation concerns possible breaches of fiduciary duty and other violations of law related to approval of the proposed transaction by Capital Gold’s board of directors.If you are a shareholder of Capital Gold, if you have information or would like to learn more about these claims, or if you wish to discuss these matters or have any questions concerning this announcement or your rights or interests with respect to these matters, please contact Howard G. Smith, Esquire, of Law Offices of Howard G. Smith, 3070 Bristol Pike, Suite 112, Bensalem, Pennsylvania 19020 by telephone at (215) 638-4847, Toll Free at (888) 638-4847, or by email to howardsmit AT howardsmithlaw.com, or visit our website at http://www.howardsmithlaw.com.
The Friday OT: Beastie Boys; Body Movin'
Today's OT is getting posted in the wee hours of Saturday due to a local power cut, but it's here all the same.
All-time iconic video and a kickin' tune from the Beastie's prime era. Impossible not to love this
10/1/10
Gammon Gold (GRS) (GAM.to) buys Capital Gold (CGC) (CGC.to)
TORONTO, and NEW YORK, NY, Oct. 1 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ - Gammon Gold Inc. ("Gammon Gold") (NYSE: GRS, TSX: GAM) and Capital Gold Corporation ("Capital Gold") (TSX and NYSE AMEX: CGC) have entered into a definitive merger agreement pursuant to which Gammon Gold will offer to acquire all of the issued and outstanding common shares of Capital Gold in a cash and share transaction (the "Acquisition"). The total consideration for the purchase of 100% of the fully diluted in-the-money shares of Capital Gold is approximately US$288 million or US$4.57 per Capital Gold share based on Gammon Gold's closing price on September 24, 2010 on the NYSE.
The Acquisition has the unanimous support of both companies' Boards of Directors and Officers and strengthens Gammon's position as a leading Mexico focused, growing gold producer.
Under the terms of the Acquisition, each common share of Capital Gold will be exchanged for 0.5209 common shares of Gammon Gold and a cash payment in the amount of US$0.79 per share. Based on the yada yada continues here
"Yes, Otto. Well we were fed up with you poking fun at us and pointing to the fact that we couldn't make a profit to save our skins, so we just went ahead and did the obvious thing. We bought a profitable mine."
Are you wondering whether you're a prostitute or not?
Then this is the place for you.
Translation of the Unasur declaration on Ecuador published this morning
Directly translated from this copy of the communique by this author.
The Heads of State and government of Unasur, meeting in the San Martín Palace, Buenos Aires, Argentina, 1 October 2010:UPDATE: This comes to mind.
1) Reaffirm their strong commitment to the preservation of democratic institutionality, the State, constitutional order, social peace and the unrestricted respect for human rights, essential conditions for the process of regional integration.
2) Strongly condemn the attempted coup d'etat and subsequent holding of President Rafael Correa Delgado, as occurred in the sister Republic of Ecuador on September 30.
3) Celebrate the liberation of President Correa Delgado as well as the quick return to institutional and democratic normality in the sister Republic. We express the need that those responsible for the coupmongering actions be judged and condemned. In this context we reiterate the fullest and most decided support for the constitutional government and highlight the role of those institutions in the re-establishment of constitutional order.
4) Affirm that our respective governments energetically reject and do not tolerate under any circumstance any new challenge to the institutional authority nor any attempted coup against the civil power elected legitimately and warn that in the case of new outbreaks again the constitutional order will adopt concrete and immediate measures such as the closure of borders, suspension of commerce, suspecnsion of air traffic, suspension of energy provision, services and other.
5) Decide that their chancellors will travel today to the city of Quito to express their full support for the constitutional President of the Republic of Ecuador, Rafael Correa Delgado, and for the people of Ecuador, indispensible participants in the full restauration of democratic institutionality in that country.
6) Agree to adopt in the fourth ordinary summit meeting of Heads of State and government of Unasur, to take place on 26 November in Guyana, an additional protocol to the constituent treaty of Unasur that establishes the democratic clause.
The 'Small Silvers' 2010 sweepstakes September update
So how have the first three quarters of 2010 treated you so far, nice investor person?
Just askin' and that, cos what with the S&P 500 putting in a pretty dismal performance so far this year.....
However, we here at IKN are doing really quite nicely, thanks for asking:
DYODD, dudettes and dudes.
Quito’s Police: CIA breeding ground
Considering today's events, this Machetera post can be classed as more than interesting.





























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