Subscribe via email, get all daily posts sent to you next day (and without all the annoying ads)

5/21/11

Growth = Confidence

And if confidence drops, so does economic growth. I fully agree with the contents of this report out of Reuters last night and have seen the same (half-empty restaurants, out of normal season sales at stores, lack of customers for white goods etc). Here's how it starts, click through for the rest.

(Reuters) - Peru's topsy-turvy presidential election, already whipsawing financial markets, is now affecting the real economy as the middle-class balks at buying real estate, until now an engine of the country's boom.
Fears left-wing Ollanta Humala will beat right-wing Keiko Fujimori in a June 5 run-off have caused buyers, lenders and builders to pause and postpone projects for the time being.
They are worried Humala, a former military officer, could roll back years of free-market reforms, despite his move toward the political center and repeated promises to respect private investment and keep existing macroeconomic policies in place if elected.
In a tight but changeable race, Humala is several points behind Fujimori, polls show. She is trusted by the business community, because her father, former President Alberto Fujimori, opened Peru's economy and tamed rampant inflation. He was later jailed for corruption and human rights abuses after his government fell in 2000.
The construction sector, driven largely by demand for new homes and easier access to mortgages, grew 17,4 percent last year, helping lift the broader economy almost 9 percent and turn Peru into one of the world's fastest-growing economies.
But in March, before the election caused a sell-off in Peru's stocks and currency, the construction sector grew just 0.15 percent from February as firms became more cautious. Broader economic growth was the slowest in 13 months.
Cement purchases, a leading indicator of the construction sector, rose just 1.25 percent in April from a year earlier.
"Everything has slowed down. I've sold one apartment since the first-round vote on April 10. Normally it'd be 4 or 5 a month. The number of people dropping by to look at projects has gone to zero," said Daniel Kohn, general manager of Inverko, a Chilean real estate development firm in Peru.
He says he is lucky that most of the 56-unit tower he is building in the fashionable Miraflores district was sold before election jitters took root and says he is being cautious about his next investment.
"I'm in negotiations right now to buy a lot to build on, but everybody involved in the deal knows that it depends on Keiko winning, and that the contract would be signed on June 6, the day after the election."
CONTINUES HERE 

UPDATE: Reader 'MS' writes in with the following (and for the record, "Asia" is the name of a swanky summer resort popular with the Lima hoi polloi, South of the city):
More evidence (if any were needed) of a drop in activity in the real estate sector in Peru: on Thursday at Hotel Las Incas here in Lima there was an auction of 16 plots for beach houses in one of the more exclusive condominiums along the Asia beachfront. I get the impression that in "normal" times these are highly sought after; one day before this auction only 11 people had been signed up (in the event they relaxed some requirements to allow another 8 people in.)
 
Interesting that the stock and fx markets now point to a Fujimori win, whereas real estate apparently points the other way. But there's been a real boom in property over the last few years (fuelled, as these things usually are, by an expansion of credit), maybe it's due a correction, or a levelling out, anyway.

5/20/11

The Friday OT: Blondie; Rapture

To get you in the mood for tomorrow without having to resort to R.E.M. and with the extra special bonus of being able to sit through an extremely cheesey early 80s video. 


A real slice of how it used to be....but cool beat all the same.

It's not all bad

Sometimes even a dumbass like me can buy into a bottom.


DYODD cos I'm long on this one and got in some more at under 2.8 this week as per the plan from last Sunday. Just lucky I guess.

Copper smelting rates in China

This is interesting from Reuters Here are two extracts:

HONG KONG, May 20 (Reuters) - Large copper smelters in China settled second-half treatment and refining charges with global miner BHP Billiton at almost double the levels seen in 2010, in a move that is likely to boost spot concentrate rates and metal output in China. 

..................


The rise in second-half TC/RC is likely to drive up charges for spot copper concentrate to China, a trader at an international trading firm said.
"I am surprised the Chinese got the big win in the TC/RC. That tells us that the market is no longer short of copper concentrates," the trader said.
"International trading firms may start offering higher TC/RCs for spot concentrate to China."
Spot TC/RCs to China traded below $10 and 1 cent a year ago due to supply tightness in the global market. The charges rose gradually to about $90 before the Japan quake and are offered at $120-$130 and 12-13 cents currently.
But large Chinese smelters in China had not been buying much spot copper concentrate from the international market in recent weeks due to smelters' high inventories and expectations for spot TC/RCs to rise to around $150 and 15 cents, the first smelter source said.
Chinese smelters were also worried that power shortages would hurt their production, the source said.
TC/RCs are paid by concentrate sellers to smelters. They typically rise when supply of concentrates increase or demand falls.

Scotia pumps Rio Alto (RIO.v)

Here's the chunk on Rio Alto Mining (RIO.v) as it appears in Scotia's Mining Scoop morning letter today. By way of disclosure I'm long RIO.v and I think Scotia is right about this stock, but i can't understand why they insist on pumping other dogs on their list like Duran Ventures (DRV.v). Anyway, WTFDIK, here's the RIO.v promo:

Looking for a Takeover Target?  Scotia Mining Sales likes Rio Alto - Scotia Mining Sales thinks Rio Alto is a strong candidate for takeover in the coming year.  The company has current gold oxide production and a copper-gold porphyry project that looks to be getting bigger with ongoing drilling. 

1)  Current Gold Oxide Production - Guidance is for 100kozs/year for 7 years at cash costs of $500/oz - however early indications thus far is that grades are reconciling much higher than their mine plan - if this continues production could be over 170kozs/year.  Management says it is still too early to increase guidance given they just poured their first gold bar 2 weeks ago but are encouraged by the early production numbers.  Even at 100kozs/year - Rio Alto is trading around 4x EBITDA so we think the market is ignoring the company ' s copper-gold porphyry project at this point.

2)  La Arena Porphyry - Watch for drilling results over the course of this year pointing to a much bigger resource than the current 187MT at 0.4% cu and 0.3 gpt gold - we think this resource grows to over 400Mt with similar grades - we expect the new resource update in Q1/12 followed by metallurgy which is likely to show improved gold recoveries to 60% by Q2/12.  A 50,000 tpd plant, capex of $1.2B, total cash costs net of gold production of $1.10/Ib, $2.75 copper price & $1,000 gold price, with 130MIbs copper production & 100kozs gold production would lead to a US$400 to US$500M after-tax NPV project.

Conclusion:  Scotia Mining Sales thinks you can buy Rio Alto for their Gold Oxide Production and get their Porphyry Project for free - a project likely to show a value of US$400 to US$500 NPV discounted at 8% by this time next year.   And remember that the company only has a market cap of ~C$380mm

Augustin Carstens gets pushed as next IMF head

Round these non-US non-European parts there's a movement starting to get current head of Mexico's Central Bank, Augustin Carstens, voted in as the new head of the International Monetary Fund. Just think of the advantages:
  • He knows the IMF backwards, having been a sub-secretary there between 2003 and 2006
  • He has an excellent track record as both Mexico FinMin (2006 to 2009) and subsequently head of the CenBank, having overseen the Mexico recovery and growth period in good style.
  • Current Mexico FinMin, Ernesto Cordero, is pushing pro-Carstens and yesterday said "I must be respectful...this is a personal opinion, he [Carstens] would be the best candidate", a strong endorsement from the corridors of power.
  • But MOST IMPORTANTLY, check out this recent photo of Carstens:

Let's face it, we're not going to get any more sex scandals if Carstens is chosen, which is the biggest bonus of the lot.

UPDATE: So much for breaking the European stranglehold on the IMF. Felix Salmon is now reporting that Christine Lagarde is a lock for the job.

Chart of the day is....

...the Lima IGBVL General Index, year to date.

What the Lima stock market action is saying is, "We think Keiko wins, we're not sure Keiko wins, so we're pricing in more Ollanta downside (4000 points to 18,000) to Keiko upside (2000 points to 24,000) right now." Pretty impressively calm at 22k or so these last five days as well, especially with just over two weeks to go in a tight race. Money talks and bullshit walks.

5/19/11

Golden Reign (GRR:v): Grrrrrrr

So let's check the smooth words used by Golden Reign (GRR.v) in its May 2nd news release about QA/QC, because they're all very reassuring and make you feel all touchyfeely about the seriousness and professionality of the company:

Quality Assurance
The Company has implemented a rigorous QA/QC program using best industry practices. As described in the Company's news release dated March 9, 2011, the program includes chain of custody responsibility of samples in sealed bags. The samples are delivered to a preparation facility of Inspectorate America Corporation ("Inspectorate"), a certified USA based laboratory (UKAS, NAMAS, STERLAB, ISO 17025), in Managua. The samples are crushed to less than 10 mesh, then a 500 gram sample is classified with a 150 mesh screen. The coarse fraction (greater than 150 mesh) is weighed and placed in a sample container and the fine fraction (less than 150 mesh) is weighed and placed in a separate container. The screened samples are couriered via DHL to Inspectorate's analytical laboratory in Richmond, British Columbia, Canada. All of the coarse fractions and two 30 gram splits of the fine fraction are then tested by fire assay techniques. The less than 150 mesh samples were used for Inductively Coupled Plasma Spectroscopy (ICP) analysis, testing for silver.

So now let's cut to tonight's NR:

VANCOUVER, BRITISH COLUMBIA--(Marketwire - May 19, 2011) - Golden Reign Resources Ltd. (the "Company" or "Golden Reign") (TSX VENTURE:GRR - News) announces that a material data entry error has been identified with respect to metallic screened gold assays reported in news releases NR11-11 and NR11-14 dated April 6, 2011 and May 2, 2011, respectively.

Oh dear. Rigorous program of industry best practices, eh?And the effect of this was to turn the screaming headline used April 6th of 9.0m of 15.23g/t gold into a far more discreet 9.0m of 7.43g/t gold. And that, ladies and gentlemen, is just one of the 53 errors out of a total of 58 samples reported!

As for the valuations over at GRR.v, just two weeks after the first NR, GRR.v was up a cool 50%.
Though strangely, it's dropped back to just where it was before all this "best industry practices" QA/QC was proved to be a very large crock. Sheer coincidence of course, but the funniest thing of the lot is the tone of the NR tonight, which arrogantly tries to make out that the lab doing the testing bears responsibility for the error and GRR.v is squeaky clean. WRONGO, DUDES! You sign off on the NR and you're to blame for the mistake....or doesn't "Qualified Person: John M. Kowalchuk, P.Geo, a geologist and qualified person (as defined under NI 43-101) has reviewed the technical information contained in this news release" mean anything at all in your little world? No, it's the shareholders that need KY Jelly applications due to your lapses that get screwed, not you guys. So fess up, cut the high-handed nonsense and say a straight plain sorry next time, cos it's bad enough risking one's cash on a junior gold explorer in Central America without having the management on the side of its retail holders. Got it, Kim Evans?

How to apologize correctly, Seeking Alpha edition

I don't really know why I'm still on Seeking Alpha's mailing list as a contributor, as I stopped using that website as an outlet many but many moons ago and have also made it quite plain to the SA people that I've zero interest in being part of their world in the present or future, but on their list I am. This means I get all the dist list mails they send out to real contributors, including one today that was really quite breathtaking in its arrogance. Here it is pasted out in full:


Dear Otto,
We thank you for your article contributions. We have recently changed our procedure for all authors and now require photo IDs for identification purposes.

Please submit a photo ID along with an updated phone number and postal address. Kindly e-mail this information to contributors@seekingalpha.com so we can continue to post your articles on the site. To make this process as efficient as possible, please include a link to your SA profile in your e-mail.
Thank you,
Contributor Development Team

When I read this, it was "thank gawd I haven't cared about them for a long while", because if this is how they speak to and value their current content-makers I'd hate to think how they treat people like me who've slagged them off on more than one occasion. Seriously, it's like "give us your photo and personal records and documents or you can't play with us any longer" and a very large case of WTF from Otto. And I thought this until a second mail arrived, signed by head honcho Eli Hoffmann. Here it is in full:

Dear Contributor,

Earlier this afternoon, our Contributor Development department sent out an email that I was not made aware of, and that I feel the need to apologize for and explain.

At Seeking Alpha, we have always, and will continue to embrace contributors' right to anonymity. We do require, for our internal records, contributors' real names and contact information.

In a few cases - particularly contributors without established blogs or online personas - we have nothing more than contributors' word as to their true identity. Hence, we have discussed initiating a policy that would require some form of substantive verification that a contributor is who he says he is - potentially via photo ID. This was only a discussion, however, and had not and has not been finalized. Also, it would obviously not apply to authors that participate in the Premium Partnership Program (we already have their banking details); authors with whom we have an established relationship; and authors who have an established online persona using their real identity.

Furthermore, the email was abrupt bordering on rude; failed to clearly explain what we were asking for and why; and made it sound as if we were making a 'my-way-or-the-highway' ultimatum.

I apologize sincerely for both the email's tone and content.

For those of you who have already complied with the request, rest assured that we will treat your personal information with the utmost discretion and security.

Seeking Alpha shares confidential contributor information with no one, and will never - short of a court order -  publicize contributors' contact information or anonymous contributors' identities.

Once again, please accept my sincere apologies for the misstep.

Sincerely,

Eli Hoffmann
Editor-in-Chief

So it's fair to say that even though I disagree with their business model and Seeking Alpha isn't my thing, Eli Hoffmann is a good person. It takes integrity and honesty to stand up just a couple of hours later and say "we goofed, I'm sorry" like that. Kudos to you, Eli, you can take me off your distribution lists now if you like.

Peru Prez Poll, New Round Two numbers from Datum

Here's the valid votes total for the new Datum poll out this morning.


Points to consider:
1) This poll was commissioned by Peru21, a very anti-Humala publication.
2) Datum has shown results that consistently favour Keiko more than the average of polls in Peru.
3) With that said, the pollster will stand by its numbers and it does seem that Keiko is at least consolidating her small lead in the polls.

The result has a margin of error of +/-2.8% and is a national urban/rural type. 1211 people interviewed. Details here.

ECU Silver (ECU.to): When a normal company late-files a quarter it's not a cause for worry, but...

..when a bullshit scam run by a bunch of sophists and toerags misses its filing date without making a single comment on the lack of quarterly financials or MD&A, then suspicions are infinitely higher.

And I'm really looking forward to the ECU Silver (ECU.to) report as well. One of my four annual guffaws from those guys, because in the reg filings they have to at least write something resembling the sad reality of the company. So c'mon guys, file your quarter today willyaz?


UPDATE: Aha! As if by magic, ECU.to after the bell today sends out its latest lump of huffypuffery about drilling then buried further down is this:

The Company also advises that it plans to file its March 31, 2011 Consolidated Interim Financial Statements and Management Discussion and Analysis on June 14, 2011. The filings for the first quarter of 2011 will contain the first set of financial statements prepared in accordance with International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS). To assist companies in making the transition from Canadian generally accepted accounting principles to IFRS, Canadian securities regulators have extended the normal filing deadlines for the first quarter of 2011.

Strange how all serious mining companies have had no problem about filings under the new regulations, but ECU.to uses it as its weak excuse, innit? Strange how they don't mention that a planned filing of June 14th means a one month delay to normal scheduling. Mind you, the lack of straight talk and basic honesty is par for the course.

Chart of the day is....

...copper, dailies.

Let's give it credit, copper did try its hardest to appease the deflation doomsdayers and all-gonna-die brigade and break under $4/lb for a while. So gotta give it credit for trying.

Gotta be long copper, too.

5/18/11

On the road

Just for a day this time, got things to do.

A chunk of the following has been quoted here before but this time we're leaving you more to ruminate over. I remember exactly where and when I read this page first...just scan the first two lines and close my eyes to be there again. The world would be a better place if everyone read some Jack, so enjoy.

"And for just a moment I had reached the point of ecstasy that I always wanted to reach, which was the complete step across chronological time into timeless shadows, and wonderment in the bleakness of the mortal realm, and the sensation of death kicking at my heels to move on, with a phantom dogging its own heels, and myself hurrying to a plank where all the angels dove off and flew into the holy void of uncreated emptiness, the potent and inconceivable radiances shining in bright Mind Essence, innumerable lotus-lands falling open in the magic mothswarm of heaven. I could hear an indescribable seething roar which wasn’t in my ear but everywhere and had nothing to do with sounds. I realized that I had died and been reborn numberless times but just didn’t remember especially because the transitions from life to death and back to life are so ghostly easy, a magical action for naught, like falling asleep and waking up again a million times, the utter casualness and deep ignorance of it. I realized it was only because of the stability of the intrinsic Mind that these ripples of birth and death took place, like the action of wind on a sheet of pure, serene mirror-like water. I felt sweet, swinging bliss, like a big shot of heroin in the mainline vein; like a gulp of wine late in the afternoon and it makes you shudder; my feet tingled. I thought I was going to die the very next moment. But I didn’t die, and walked four miles and picked up ten butts and took them back to Marylou’s hotel room and poured their tobacco in my pipe and lit it up. I was too young to know what happened."

Chart of the day is....

...the Gold/Silver Ratio (GSR), year to date:


Personally, I'd take 44X to the end of the year if offered like a shot. The big question to ask silverbugs, however, is how the GSR might be affected by the Rapture scheduled for Saturday? I mean, we're talking about 200m people lifted off the face of the earth here, which is 1) a sizeable amount and 2) with a high density of silver longs compared to the infidels left behind, I'd guess.


I get the feeling spot silver might collapse if May 21st goes the way the bible math guys say it's going to go. Be careful out there, dudes.

5/17/11

The International Day Against Homophobia

¡IKN presente!

Bear Creek Mining's (BCM.v) share price is holding up pretty well, considering....

...that they're just about to be kicked out of their Santa Ana project in the South of Peru.

I mean, did you know that the protest from locals against this project has caused the closure of the borders between Bolivia and Peru? Did you know that the national government is down there right now trying to negotiate a settlement with people that are insisting on one thing and one thing only, the immediate and definitive withdrawal of Bear Creek (BCM.v) from the project? Strange how the company has been so quiet in the English language news dissemination whilst emitting multiple communiqués in Spanish for the benefit of its Peruvian audience, innit? 

When the market realizes just how deep in the doo-doo BCM is with this project that's supposed to open in 2012 (though only in a parallel universe), this one is going under $7.

Disclosure: Unlike the bagholders at Casey Research, no position.

Argentina: A country so good at bribery and corruption that...

..even when they get caught in the act, they get to look good and it costs them virtually nothing.

Here we go with two extracts from this SEC ruling today.

The agreement with Tenaris involves allegations that the global manufacturer of steel pipe products violated the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act (FCPA) by bribing Uzbekistan government officials during a bidding process to supply pipelines for transporting oil and natural gas. The SEC alleges that Tenaris made almost $5 million in profits when it was subsequently awarded several contracts by the Uzbekistan government. Under the terms of the DPA, Tenaris must pay $5.4 million in disgorgement and prejudgment interest.

.........

“Tenaris’s conduct was clearly in violation of the FCPA. The company’s employees bribed government officials in Uzbekistan to obtain government contracts. But when Tenaris discovered the illegal conduct, it took noteworthy steps to address the violations and significantly enhance its anti-corruption policies and practices to remediate weaknesses in its internal controls.”

Argentina, que pais generoso!

Free books redux

In these days of sagging markets and constant selling of the junior sector, what we need is good freebies to get our brains sharpened for the next upmove without dipping into diminishing funds, which is why this offer last weekend seems to have gone down so very well with you guys (lots and lots of people have taken the offer up and got their free book summaries, which is good). So many in fact that it's worth running the post again, so here it is below. And on the subject of offers and money, I've decided to keep the advert box above, because just a cursory look at the portfolio standings shows I need all the pennies I can get too. Good job it's only money and nothing too important, yeah?

Please yes nice day be having yes thankyou yes. And choose an offer, you know it makes sense.

The blurb in these offers is "know in ten minutes..." and the idea is to offer abstracts of top-selling business and knowledge books. It's a pretty good idea and so here are six titles to choose from. Pick, click, order, get. Simple and zero cost (as always).


Make Every Second Count: Time Management Tips and Techniques for More Success with Less Stress – Free Book Summary Know in ten minutes.. Capitalism 4.0: The Birth of a New Economy in the Aftermath of Crisis -- Free Book Summary Know in ten minutes what takes others hours to.. Zombie Economics: How Dead Ideas Still Walk Among Us – Free Book Summary Know in ten minutes what takes others hours to learn, and keep up..
Leaders as Teachers: Unlock the Teaching Potential of Your Company's Best and Brightest – Free Book Summary Know in ten minutes what takes.. Do More Great Work: Stop the Busywork, and Start the Work That Matters – Free Book Summary Know in ten minutes what takes others hours to.. Everyone Communicates, Few Connect: What the Most Effective People Do Differently – Free Book Summary Know in ten minutes what takes..

The honeymoon is over for Juan Manuel Santos of Colombia (though only in Colombian minds)

Here's a chart that shows the Presidential approval ratings for Colombia's President, Juan Manuel Santos, from his inauguration in August last year to this month, May 2011. The info is taken from a search here and worth noting that Colombia tends to check the approval pulse of its government every two months, rather than the month-on-month polls taken elsewhere.

Colombia has always been and will always be a very weird place. When the latest batch of surveys came out this month, the hand-wringing was widespread with political chatterers and assembled dumbasses all bemoaning the plummeting popularity of their Prez. The main line of all-gonna-die thinking is that the latest result was the lowest score from any month since 2002 (i.e. they're all too concerned with tying up the Santos numbers with the scores Uribe used to get). So, points to take into account:

1) All Presidents get a honeymoon period boost. So Juanma is down 15% from day one and 18% from his peak...big deal.

2) He's still polling 71%, FerCryinOut! Jeesh, what would Twobreakfasts in Peru (31%), Pepe in Uruguay (44%) or Studmuffin in Ecuador (45%, though other polls give him a point or two more and less) give to be polling that kind of number?

3) He's not as popular as Uribe because he dares to tell the truth, which pisses off the right-wing control groups of Colombia no end. Colombia has an armed conflict? Errr...yeah (but Uribe stayed in flat denial). Colombia has corruption at the highest levels? Errr...yeah (but Uribe wasn't the cure, he was the freakin' cause of it). Colombia needs to get its Congress working? Errr....yeah...sorry guys, get off your asses one time and do some work.

As has been made plain on these pages previously, your author has been most pleasantly surprised at the quality and integrity of Colombia's new President. He's a good guy and one who deserves the support he's getting...that's to say from the large majority of Colombians (the people who matter). The rest is noise.

Minera Andes (MAI.to)


There's no need to rush, subbers. But we will be talking about this one in IKN107 on Sunday, though.

Chart of the day is....

...gold these last few days.

Shhhh! It's quiet...

5/16/11

Highly recommended read for metalheads

On this link, find the op-ed written by Brent Cook in the latest edition of the Society of Economic Geologists Newsletter, in which he addresses an audience of people in love with rocks that don't always understand the financial side of junior exploration. A really excellent piece of insight into the world of the geologist and explorer, no kidding. Here's an excerpt from the piece to whet your appetite:

We, as a profession, are wasting substantial sums of money on bureaucratic activities (Sillitoe, SEG Newsletter, October 2010) that have little if anything to do with discovery, and drilling properties that don’t warrant drilling. Think about it; how many dog properties have you walked over that someone is promoting —trying to raise money to drill test— and the money actually comes through? That’s another way of saying money is too easy to come by ($5.2 billion was raised on the Toronto Venture exchange for mining equities last year alone), as opposed to the more commonly pitched “not enough is being spent on exploration.” The reality is that the available money is not being spent efficiently on work that leads to a discovery: field work and intelligent drilling.
 
All too often, an exploration geologist seems to see his or her job as one of finding a drill target. It isn’t. The job is, or at least should be, delineating a drill target that honestly offers a viable shot at a game-changing discovery—a find that takes a junior stock from $0.25 to $2.50 or $25, or truly adds to the bottom line of a mining company. The common shortsighted junior explorer’s business plan of raising money and drilling every anomaly commonly ignores the characteristics and probable economics of the mineral system being tested.



Read it all here.

x

So why isn't the bullshit pumper James West talking about Seafield Resources (SFF.v) any longer?

Oh yeah, that must be why:


The only thing left to ask is, CUI BONO, JIMMYLAD? CUI BONO? Meanwhile, your author's memory is stirred by this post dated December 6th that presaged the drop in this scam. It read as follows:


Seafield (SFF.v): Gotta wonder just how stupid James West is going to look once the hype dies down

The subject matter is Seafield Resources (SFF.v) and its big hole announced last week. This excerpt from James West's Midas Letter dates from December 3rd.
"When the market opens Monday, any shares you can get under a dollar will likely be ten-bagger potential, as with a few more drills holes like this one, and you’ve got Ventana 2 on your hands. (Ventana is currently the subject of a buyout offer by Brazil’s EBX Group for $1.5 Billion.)"

The market looks upon West as a guru. I personally remember him as the dumbass who looked really really stupid by reco'ing Southwestern as a buy just AFTER the Boka scandal broke. Meanwhile, this on SFF.v last week is from the smart guys at Metal Augmentor: For the record, put me firmly in their camp as regards Seafield:
"I’d go as far as saying that anybody who compares Seafield to Ventana Gold (TSX: VEN; Pink Sheets: VENGF) at this point hasn’t even bothered to look at the drill map."

DYODD dude, and laugh hard at self-fulfilling prophecies.

Yup, once upon a six months ago James West peppered his flock with ridiculous "buy at a buck and sell at $5" prophecies for this stock. My how time flies....
 
Remember James West's advice that geology doesn't matter folks

Chart of the day is....

...the excellently wonderful Procrastination Flowchart, delivered to your author by the excellently wonderful expert on Bolivia and English pubs, Karaspita.


Click to enlarge this one: It gets big but my stars it's worth it.

Today's biz quiz question

Q: Who puts up more of a fight against the predatory, overbearing and bullying attitudes of the IMF?

1) A chambermaid in New York City.
2) Ireland.

The IKN Weekly, out now

IKN106 might have been sent out way late, but it sent out it was a tumbling of minutes ago. It has words and charts.

5/15/11

The IKN Weekly will be late arriving today (again)

It might not even arrive til the wee small hours, but it'll get there. Sorry about this.

Peru Prez Polls, five pollsters in one chart

This weekend has seen four Peru pollsters publish new voter intention figures and here they all are on one chart that also includes the Datum poll out last Thursday that made the local market and currency rally:


Please note that all the polls shown here are for "valid votes" and do not include those polled that said they were either undecided or they'd spoil their ballot. As a general rule of thumb, there seems to be 20% of Peruvians in either of those categories and we can expect around half of them to make up their minds and vote for one or the other candidate. Or in other words, it's the undecideds that will eventually decide this race and there's still everything to play for.

Finally, as regards accuracy I personally would plump for the Ipsos/Apoyo people (green columns) as having the best track record and the ones least influenced by paymasters (yeah, that's diplomatic), although even they are open to crits because the owners are part of the Lima ruling class establishment. Find the full Ipsos/Apoyo poll linked here.