Update: Big news out of Ipsos/Apoyo this afternoon. Just a couple of minutes ago, Peru's most respected pollster called Ollanta Humala ahead with 51.9% of valid votes and Keiko Fujimori on 48.1%. The poll was taken today, June 4th, from 4000 people and has a margin of error of +/- 1.6%. This means that it's the first time for weeks that Ollanta Humala has shown a polling result that beats out the margin of error. Data from this Reuters news report.
6/4/11
Peru polls on the day before the election (UPDATED)
Update: Big news out of Ipsos/Apoyo this afternoon. Just a couple of minutes ago, Peru's most respected pollster called Ollanta Humala ahead with 51.9% of valid votes and Keiko Fujimori on 48.1%. The poll was taken today, June 4th, from 4000 people and has a margin of error of +/- 1.6%. This means that it's the first time for weeks that Ollanta Humala has shown a polling result that beats out the margin of error. Data from this Reuters news report.
Not the best planned robbery of all time
Rosario: Thieves Rob a Cybercafé But Are Detained Later Due To Leaving Facebook Page Open
Two young delinquents who had assaulted a cybercafé in the Santa Fe city of Rosario were arrested and taken into custody after one of them forgot to close their Facebook account, which led to their identification. One other remains at large.
The incident occurred in the early hours of Monday morning, when the three thieves entered the cybercafé located on the corner of Paraguay and Catamarca Avenues and, after using the computers there while waiting for all the other clients to leave, one of the three threatened the staff with a gun and took one cellular phone, 320 pesos (U$80) and an identity card, after which they fled.
A little later when police arrived and, while making an inspection of the shop, found that one of the computers that had been used by the thieves had not been closed down and managed, via his Facebook account, to take down the details of his name, address and the address of the school he attends.
On Wednesday afternoon police officers went to the Comercio Nº2 JJ de Urquiza High School, located at Palestine Ave 1551, and arrest Federico Barbosa, 18, who had taken the ID card and cell phone of the staff member. Then one of the other youths who had participated in the theft was also arrested, whilst a third still remains at large.
6/3/11
The Friday OT: The Verve; Bittersweet Symphony
Enjoy
Mixed Friday thoughts
"Darling I had a nightmare. I dreamt that Keiko Fujimori and Ollanta Humala were the only candidates left in the second round run-off."
The gold/jobs Friday guessing game
Guess when the US jobs number came out, simply by looking at this 5 min chart of gold futures:
If you guessed 07:30am, you guessed well.
Chart of the day is....
...the Presidential approval ratings for Chile's Sebastian Piñera, out yesterday.
That question says, "Independently of your own political position, do you approve or disapprove of the way on which Sebastian Piñera is running his government?"
6/2/11
Let's all laugh at the poor people...
...who buy Casey Research stock picks.
UPDATE: And it just gets better. Today Lobito has called "buy second tranche" on EAS.v and notes that although the recent 43-101 resource was a total PoS and he's in the hole to the tune of 30% he can only "see an opportunity". So pathetic it's almost funny, now all we need to watch is the initial price switcheroo that Casey Research constantly uses to scam its clients. Will they dare to shift the "initial price" to today's $3.57 in future episodes? Watch this space.....
The Ipsos/Apoyo survey PDF: Download it here
La principal consecuencia del debate presidencial habría sido una mayor definición de los electores a favor de ambos candidatos y una disminución de la propensión a votar en blanco o viciado.
��Con respecto al simulacro anterior:
��Keiko Fujimori ha incrementado su intención de voto de 43,5 a 45,8% gracias su recuperación en Lima y a un avance en el norte.
��Ollanta Humala ha incrementado su intención de voto de 42,6 a 43,9% debido a un crecimiento en el oriente.
��El voto en blanco y viciado ha disminuido de 13,9 a 10,3%
��En términos de votos válidos, Keiko Fujimori tiene ahora 51,1 y Ollanta Humala 48,9%. La ligera ventaja de la candidata de Fuerza 2011 estátodavía dentro del empate estadístico, considerando el margen de error de esta medición que es de +1,8 puntos.
��Esta medición no incluye la intención de voto de los peruanos que residen en el extranjero. Se estima que este electorado podría añadirla entre 0.5 y 1% de votación a Fujimori. Tampoco mide con precisión la intención de voto de los lugares más alejados de la sierra y selva rurales, que podrían ser algo más favorables a Humala.
��Cabe recordar que este encuesta no es una predicción. En el simulacro, los electores indecisos (alrededor del 10%) han expresado una intención de voto que podría cambiar el día de las elecciones.
New Peru Poll: Keiko Fujimori 51%, Ollanta Humala 49% according to Ipsos/Apoyo
09:43 02Jun11 RTRS-PERU IPSOS POLL SHOWS RIGHT-WING FUJIMORI WITH 51 PCT OF VOTE, LEFT-WING HUMALA AT 49 PCT BEFORE SUNDAY VOTE - SOURCESFor Related News, Double Click on one of these codes:[C] [D] [E] [M] [O] [T] [U] [MTL] [GRO] [SOF] [OIL] [MNI] [NAT] [ELN] [NAW] [G] [PE] [LATAM] [EMRG] [POL] [VOTE] [PRO] [GEN] [PIL] [CTXT] [MIN] [MET] [GVD] [DBT] [FRX] [NSS] [CMPNY] [LEN] [RTRS]
La principal consecuencia del debate presidencial habría sido una mayor definición de los electores a favor de ambos candidatos y una disminución de la propensión a votar en blanco o viciado.
��Con respecto al simulacro anterior:
��Keiko Fujimori ha incrementado su intención de voto de 43,5 a 45,8% gracias su recuperación en Lima y a un avance en el norte.
��Ollanta Humala ha incrementado su intención de voto de 42,6 a 43,9% debido a un crecimiento en el oriente.
��El voto en blanco y viciado ha disminuido de 13,9 a 10,3%
��En términos de votos válidos, Keiko Fujimori tiene ahora 51,1 y Ollanta Humala 48,9%. La ligera ventaja de la candidata de Fuerza 2011 estátodavía dentro del empate estadístico, considerando el margen de error de esta medición que es de +1,8 puntos.
��Esta medición no incluye la intención de voto de los peruanos que residen en el extranjero. Se estima que este electorado podría añadirla entre 0.5 y 1% de votación a Fujimori. Tampoco mide con precisión la intención de voto de los lugares más alejados de la sierra y selva rurales, que podrían ser algo más favorables a Humala.
��Cabe recordar que este encuesta no es una predicción. En el simulacro, los electores indecisos (alrededor del 10%) han expresado una intención de voto que podría cambiar el día de las elecciones.
UPDATE 2: Download your copy of the Ipsos/Apoyo PDF from here
Oh my stars! What a horrible feeling
My opinion: I know I’m going to disappoint many of you by saying this, but I’m skeptical about both candidates’ claims that they will respect Peru’s democratic institutions. I feel like Fernando de Szyslo, Peru’s best-known living artist and one of Mario Vargas Llosa’s best friends, who said in an interview with the daily El Comercio: “I’m sorry, but I can’t vote for any of them.”
I guess that many Peruvians feel the same way, and will vote exclusively on pocketbook issues. The poorest of the poor will vote for Humala, and the emerging middle classes for Fujimori.
On Sunday, we will find out whether, after two decades of growth in which poverty rates dropped from 54 percent to 31 percent of the population, Peru has already become a middle-class country, or whether a majority of Peruvians feel they have been bypassed by their country’s prosperity.
Chart of the day is....
...a reader request. It's the amount of money that Google Adsense adverts make for this blog per month.
*Good morning Vancouver :-)
6/1/11
Eurasia on Peru's election
The latest polls suggest the 5 June second round runoff between nationalist candidate Ollanta Humala and center-right candidate Keiko Fujimori will be very tight. However, we still believe Humala holds a slight edge and is thus favored to win the presidency. While Fujimori is ahead in most polls, her lead has narrowed, which suggests negative campaign could be finally hurting her. In addition, Humala looks likely to win a larger share of undecided voters, who are mostly poor and therefore tend to be less concerned about the risks commonly associated with Humala. Despite the tight race, the risk of serious post-election political instability is low, even though a slow counting of votes could generate significant noise in the weeks following the election.
Most of the polls released over the weekend show center-right candidate Keiko Fujimori slightly ahead of nationalist candidate Ollanta Humala, but her lead has narrowed from last week. The latest Ipsos/Apoyo poll shows support for Fujimori at 41% (down from 43% in the previous poll) and support for Humala stable at 39%. In an Ipsos/Apoyo vote simulation, Fujimori had 50.5% of valid votes (down from 51.4% last week) and Humala 49.5% (up from 48.6%). A Datum vote simulation shows Fujimori with an almost five-point lead (52.3% vs 47.7%), but Fujimori's lead has narrowed slightly from previous polls. Another vote simulation conducted by the Catholic University of Lima (PUCP) shows the two candidates practically tied; Fujimori has 44.2% support and Humala has 43.7% (50.3% vs 49.75 in terms of valid votes). And an Imasen vote simulation shows Humala leading 50.8% versus 49.2%. The average of these polls (expressed in valid votes) shows Fujimori leading 50.6% versus 49.4%. Sunday May 29 was the last day pollsters could release their results before the 5 June run-off, although polls may be leaked later this week.
These results suggest the race will be very tight, but we remain of the view that Humala has an edge. Fujimori's narrower lead in polls suggests that negative associations related to her father's track record for corruption and human right violations, which have intensified in the past few weeks, could be hurting her bid. The increase in Fujimori's rejection rate over the course of May is further evidence that that this is occurring. In Ipsos/Apoyo's 9 May poll, Fujimori's rejection rate stood at 34%; it has increased is subsequent polls and reached 39% in the 29 May poll. In the meantime, Humala's rejection rate has fluctuated around 40%. Earlier in the month, his rate was five points higher than Fujimori's, but the difference has narrowed to just one point - the 29 May Ipsos/Apoyo poll shows Humala's rejection rate at 40%. The latest polls did not capture the impact on voters of last Sunday's televised debate. The impact will most likely be very limited, but if anything the debate will probably help Humala at the margin. He was able to expose clearly the negative aspects of Fujimori's father government and tie her to his administration. While these issues constitute a significant liability for Fujimori, they haven't received much media attention yet. From the perspective of undecided voters, this is what probably stood out in the debate.
Such campaign dynamics will help Humala gain a higher share of support from undecided voters, whose profile suggests many will lean towards Humala. Undecided voters are concentrated among poor, who tend to be less concerned about the risks commonly associated with Humala (that he will be a radical) and more sensitive to accusations of corruption. According to the latest Ipsos/Apoyo poll, the highest rate of undecided voters (9%) is in the "D" class which represents about a third of the electorate. Rates are just slightly lower in the other socioeconomic classes, but this indicates that poor voters constitute a majority of undecided voters. According to the PUCP poll, which we view as credible, the rates of undecided voters are comparatively higher among the poor. There are 8% of undecided voters in the "D" and "E" social classes, while only 4% of voters in the "C" class and 5% in the "A" and "B" classes, respectively, remain undecided. Additionally, the number of undecided voters could be higher that polls suggest. A poll conducted after the 2006 shows that 15% of voters chose their candidate on Election Day. With undecided voters more likely to lean towards Humala, this could tilt the election in his favor.
Despite the tight race, the risk of instability stemming from potential questioning of the electoral result is probably low. The more worrisome scenario here is one in which Humala loses by a very narrow margin. Some of his advisors expressed concern about the risk of fraud and could therefore raise doubts about the result. But Peru's electoral authorities are fairly independent, so the risk of widespread fraud that could justify serious questioning of the results looks low. In addition, Humala's willingness to question the results probably won't be strong. He has made the strategic decision to move closer to the center of the political spectrum, so serious questioning of the result could undermine the credibility of his move and thus his chances of winning future elections. And if he does decide to question the results, his ability to conduct nation-wide protests that paralyses large cities will be limited given that his supporters are concentrated in rural areas and probably lack the party structure and cohesion to sustain widespread protests. Fujimori has affirmed emphatically that she will accept the result. Despite the low risk of serious questioning, a slow counting of votes and/or potential requests of recounting could generate significant noise and doubts about the final result during the weeks that will follow the vote.
Erasto Almeida
Analyst, Latin America
latest Peru polling news off the wires: Technical dead heat June 1st, according to Datum
11:20 01Jun11 RTRS-LATEST DATUM POLL SHOWS TIGHTENING PERU RACE, FUJIMORI HAS EDGE OVER HUMALA BUT IS IN A 'TECHNICAL TIE' - SOURCE
11:26 01Jun11 RTRS-Datum poll shows tie in Peru race - source
11:38 01Jun11 RTRS-PERU STOCKS DOWN 5 PCT AFTER SOURCE SAYS LATEST DATUM POLL SHOWS TIGHTENING PERU RACE IS IN A 'TECHNICAL TIE'
(Note: Election law forbids publication of polls in Peru a week prior to June 5 voting)
LIMA, June 1 (Reuters) - Peru's presidential race has tightented to a "technical tie" with a slight advantage for right-wing lawmaker Keiko Fujimori, a source briefed on a survey by Datum said on Wednesday. Datum's previous poll released on Sunday said Fujimori had a lead of 4.6 points over left-wing Ollanta Humala in a mock vote it organized, greater than the margin of error. Polls by other survey firms on Sunday had shown a technical tie between the candidates.
Update: We got a link for that Reuters story on the open net now. Here it is (Spanish language). Meanwhile, a source that's proven pretty accurate in previous times tells your author that the Datum numbers, due out tomorrow, are
Today's junior mining company share price future predictive market quiz question
keiko win = up, ollanta win = down...faites vos jeux, mesdames et messieures....or not
Thus conscience does make cowards of us all,
And thus the native hue of resolution
Is sicklied o'er with the pale cast of thought,
And enterprises of great pitch and moment
With this regard their currents turn awry
And lose the name of action.
Hamlet, act 3 Scene 1, LL 82-87
Or Dirty Harry if you like: Feeling lucky, punk?
Chart of the day is...
Because I may still feel grotty, but there's enough juice in tanks to follow the trades. DYODD.
5/31/11
Otto Rock is unwell
Quote of the day....
...is awarded to Colombia's Minister of Mining, Carlos Rodado Noriega, who had this to say about the inflience of narcotraffickers in gold mining sector of Colombia:
A Flash update...
..went out to subscribers just before the bell this morning. Consider this post belt'n'braces, guys.
Why I think Keiko Fujimori will win the Peru election
Charts of the day are....
...the Argentina Peso versus the US Dollar, 12 months...
5/30/11
So what does the Peru stock market think of the latest round of opinion polls?
It thinks this:
Down 4.68% in the first three hours of the week, all stocks taking a bath.
A better way of scaring the middle class into voting for Keiko is difficult to imagine. Money talks, BS walks, part 14,392 of a continuting series. Data from here
Focus Ventures (FCV.v): Jeesh Lobito, is that all you got these days?
Wow, looks like you're losing your touch, dude. Time was when people actually listened to you....
Bear Creek Mining (BCM.v) and protests in Puno: latest
UPDATE: Interestingly, that report linked above seems to have been pulled by the website. Following the Google feed, there are now conflicting reports on whether the protests will go ahead or whether they'll be suspended today. But either way, BCM.v at Santa Ana isn't going to have a happy time of it. That was explained yesterday in IKN108.
Chart of the day is....
...the US Dollar since 2002.

Strong dollar policy's working, I see.
Man, I just have no idea whatsoever why commodities have been rising in the last decade.
















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