Peru stock market up in early trading (UPDATED)

At 9am local time (10am EST) Peru's IGBVL index finds itself 1.87% up and rebounding a bit from the panic-induced drop of yesterday. Major moves include the big 11.1% bounce in Maple Energy (quite highly weighted in the overall index), Candente Copper (DNT.to up 6.47%), Panoro (PML.v up 15.4% but lightly weighted on the index) and the 3.77% move in Volcan (VOLCABC1), the heaviest weighed and most liquid stock on the market.

It's still early in the session however, and bigger money might change moods later. We shall see, but if you want to follow the BVL website is here, by the way.

UPDATE:  Now 40 minutes later (9:40am) and the rebound continues. The IGBVL index is now up 3.52%, with main component Volcan doing well at +7.55% and many of the tiny illiquid juniors springing double figure moves (ALT up 23%, DNT up 8.6%, PML up 15.4%, RCZ up 20%, VEM up 13%, ZNC up 10% etc).


UPDATE 2: IGBVL now up 5.33% and a decent slice of San Isidro's population must be feeling pretty stupid for selling Monday. Hah! That'll learn 'em.

Raymond James bullshits its clients re. Bear Creek Mining (BCM.v)

In its effusive pumphouse marketing note to clients on Bear Creek Mining (BCM.v) this morning, the crew at Raymond James decided that facts just don't matter. For example, its clients read this morning the following line about the protesters at Santa Ana:

"...they’re accusing BCM of looking to pollute Lake Titicaca, which is 50km away and uphill! Would need to invest millions in pumps to be able to do this"

Sorry guys, that's bullshit and you're either deliberately lying to your clients or you've been told bullshit by Bear Creek (BCM.v). The FACTS are that Santa Ana is 45km away from Lake Titicaca (a small point) and that Lake Titicaca sits at an elevation of 3812 metres above sea level, while the low point at Santa Ana is 4150masl (a big point that blows your sarcasm and exclamation marks out the water, dumbasses). The rest of the reasoning that tried to belittle the protests against Santa Ana was just as poor too.

Just another day of South American ignorance out of so-called professional brokerages in Canada, but don't worry guys, we're used to your stupidity by now. Anyway, here's a message for you from people who do actually check facts before opening mouths. Why don't you just do us all a favour one time and....

?

Chart of the day is....

...the Peru Stock Exchange IGBVL "General" index, 12 months to date updated from yesterday (as promised in yesterday's CotD)

The subtle difference is the 12.45% drop, the biggest in the IGBVL's history. It only traded for half an hour at the open and then for two hours from 11am, as well. The BVL's head honcho, Roberto Hoyle, was all over Peru TV news shows last night trying to explain why the directors of the bolsa decided to panic and spread the panic they did. For me it's either that they're total morons or that they actually wanted panic to happen, most likely both. Thew word Idiots is too kind for them.

But that was then and this is now and when this market is a buy is the question, not whether. It could be today, it could be next week, but right now my thumb-stuck-in-the-air-best-guess is tomorrow Wednesday 8th June, the same day the Aymara people go back to their protest and start blocking roads in Puno again. But whatever day it rebounds, it's gonna rebound, be clear about that. That chart above you is money waiting to be earned in long positions to come, it's up to you to decide whether you want a slice of the returns.

The next FinMin of Peru speaks

Word now is that Ismael Benavides was offered and declined the job of FinMin under Ollanta so all fingers now point to Kurt Burneo, the dude that dragged the Ollanta financial agenda towards centrepolitics during round 2. Here's Burneo in a youtube appearance today, explaining that the macro economic policy that will be implemented in Peru by the next administration is totally orthodox, things in the financial sphere will be as per and the social programs that Humala will implement will come under a totally balanced budget.

An interesting video for those that understand*.

*What, you don't dig Spanish? Sorry 'bout that, dude..

Eurasia on the Peru election result

Credit where it's due, Erasto Almeida of Eurasia stuck to his guns all the way through the second round of the Peru Presidential election, consistently called Ollanta Humala as the winner and got the result he predicted. Never mind the nitpicking, he deserves credit for a good call.

Now for his note sent out today about an hour and a half ago, which you can see below. Enjoy.

PERU: Risk of major policy shifts under Humala will be low at first, but could grow over time
6 June 2011 04:08 PM EDT

With nationalist candidate Ollanta Humala headed to become Peru's next president on 28 July, there is tremendous uncertainty amongst investors and businesses alike over what his agenda will be. Humala is likely to begin on a positive note. We expect him to signal continuity on fiscal and monetary policy and nominate reasonably well-respected economists to his economic team. Nevertheless, over time Humala will be challenged to manage the trade-offs between his goals of increasing spending and expanding the role of the state in the economy without threatening macroeconomic stability. As a result, we expect the direction of economic policy to deteriorate over the course of his mandate. The sector most immediately at risk is mining. Humala will seek to increase revenues substantially by increasing royalties and instituting a high windfall tax that will affect new and existing projects. Humala will probably try to negotiate changes with companies who have contracts guaranteed by Peru's constitution. The overall dynamics of how the increase is implemented will be a good litmus test of the overall direction of policy during his presidency.


In line with our expectations, official results and private estimates show nationalist-candidate Ollanta Humala appears to be headed to become Peru's next president (see Eurasia Group Note Peru: Humala is likely headed to a narrow victory 1 June 2011). The latest results from the National Office of Electoral processes (ONPE) show that with 94.3% of the vote counted Humala has 51.27% of the valid vote, while center-right candidate Keiko Fujimori has 48.7% of the vote. Quick counts (estimates based on a sample of voting stations), that in the past have proven to be fairly accurate, show Humala ahead with a comfortable margin. According to NGO Transparencia's latest quick count Humala defeated Fujimori 51.37% to 48.53%. A quick count by reputed polling agency Ipsos-Apoyo Humala had 51.4% and Fujimori 48.6%. While Fujimori has not yet conceded, the trends are unlikely to change. Moreover, the difference seems to have been wide enough to avoid any possible dispute or conflict over the results.

The main question now turns to what to expect from Humala after he takes office on 28 July. Our view remains that Humala will likely begin on a positive note, but that policy risks will likely materialize in the medium to long term (see Eurasia Group Outlook Peru: A low risk of radical change under Humala, but policy would likely take a negative turn for investors 5 May 2011). Humala has moderated his discourse throughout the campaign, and there are reasons to believe such a stance extends beyond a pure electoral strategy to help win the election. Humala and his advisors, for example, do seem to be earnestly concerned with containing the negative impact that his election could have on markets and they look to be placing a premium on maintaining economic stability in the short term. . We wouldn't be surprised if Humala announces part of his cabinet and economic team, including appointments to the central bank board of directors, relatively soon. Humala will likely nominate moderate individuals that would assuage market concerns. After the first round, many former President Alejandro Toledo economic advisors' joined the Humala campaign, so Humala has a pool of respected economists to choose from. The next administration will take office on 28 July, but Humala will probably announce appointments to key economic posts within a few weeks.

It's very hard to anticipate who Humala's next Minister of Finance will be, but Kurt Burneo probably has the highest chances of securing the post. He was one of Toledo's economic advisors, was an ex-Central Bank and Ministry of Finance official. He joined Humala's team in the second round, and the fact he has already been giving strong signals of policy continuity today could be seen as an indication of his growing standing vis-à-vis Humala. If he doesn't assume the Ministry of Finance, he could be a candidate to assume a position in the Central Bank (the government will appoint 3 directors plus the president within he first month of office).

The problem for Humala will be to strike a balance between his goals of increasing spending and expanding the role of the state in the economy without threatening macroeconomic stability or generating market uncertainty. Our view is that given the high demand for change among voters (this was a driver of Humala's victory) and Humala's desire to avoid seeing his approval ratings plummet, when faced with difficult trade-offs he would probably lean towards higher spending. It is unlikely that Humala would put broad stability at risk, but he will push the limits on fiscal and even monetary policy. As a result, the direction of economic policy could very well deteriorate over time.

Nevertheless, Peru's good overall macroeconomic fundamentals will give Humala some room to maneuver without significantly altering the policy framework. Moreover, and although we think this should not be overstated, Humala will face institutional constraints, including constitutional limits and a divided congress, that will limit how much he can do.

The sector that would be most immediately at risk would be mining. Humala wants to increase revenue to finance his policy agenda, and has clearly stated his intention of increasing revenue by 4% of GDP (Humala has stated a desire to raise revenue from 14% of GDP to 18%), and mining is the easiest source. As a result, he will most likely seek to increase revenues by increasing royalties and has mentioned his intention of instituting a high windfall tax. This will affect both new and existing projects. Humala will also seek to renegotiate current tax stabilization agreements to boost tax revenues (they represent around 25% of mining production). If he were to encounter difficulty doing this companies would probably face strong pressure to accept tighter terms, but risk of nationalization is low. In fact, how strongly Humala pressures companies and the overall dynamics of how the increase is implemented will be a good litmus test of the overall direction of policy during his presidency.

Erasto Almeida
Analyst, Latin America

Trading suspended in Lima stock market (UPDATED)

Due to the massive selling pressure at the bell this morning, trading in the BVL (Bolsa de Valores de Lima) Peru Stock exchange has been suspended for one hour. Here's the website link for the BVL, but don't be surprised if the page doesn't open, as they're swamped right now.

Basically, the idiots in the Lima middle class have decided to panic. Panic = opportunity. Don't buy yet, but keep Peru firmly on the radar because the chances of a big and buyable swoon are now getting higher.

Update: The Lima market is due to re-open at 10am local time (11am EST), which is about three minutes from now. Those trading stocks in Canada that have pair tickers in Lima should watch for the action in the more liquid junior mining stocks on the Lima exchange. These include Rio Alto Mining (RIO.v), Candente Copper (DNT.to) and Zincore (ZNC.to). Also of interest are Vena (VEM.to), Candente Gold (CDG.to) Rio Cristal (RCZ.v), Panoro (PML.v) and probably a few more I can't remember offhand right now.

Have fun and happy market watching!

UPDATE 2: We're just after 10am. The BVL bigwigs are obviously crapping their pants now and have suspended trading for another hour! If you ever wanted an example of "asking for trouble", look no further. Abject stupidity on display.

UPDATE 3: The BVL re-opened at 11am local time (12 midday EST) and....SPLAT! Now 10.6% down.Updating this update at 11:20 local time (12:20 EST), the IGBVL is now down 10.88%. Just so you know.

Scam runner Gordon Brent Pierce has got himself a website!

The man himself. Rip-off merchant Gordon Brent Pierce in the flesh

Oh joy! Go here to check out the website of Gordon Brent Pierce, who describes himself as a "no nonsense" business guy with a "hands-on" approach. Sadly, his concept on hands-on is much more about getting his hands on your money, because this scumbag liar is the same guy that's been banned by the Canadian authorities from the stock market, fined $2.9m by the US SEC for his pump and dump scam activities in US OTC stocks and now also has a $7m fine hanging out his tush, also from the SEC and also for pumping and dumping stocks.

Gordon Brent Pierce is a scumball of the worst type, a shark that preys on the innocent greenhorns of the market, rips them off and screws them into the ground, then leaves with their money in his pocket. He's still at his disgusting games too, as we recently witnessed with the shameless pumping and dumping of his vehicle Mercer Gold (MRGP.ob), a bullshit gold junior in Colombia he couldn't run himself due to his multitude of convictions, so he got it headed up by trainee scamster Rahim Jivraj, the whole thing that we at IKN exposed. To see Gordon brent Pierce promoting himself in this way is a joke, but it's probably due to the fact that he's had to put his house on the market recently in order to pay his fines, else face jailtime (at long last).

So do yourself a favour, go visit his website, take a few minutes, look at how he presents himself to the world and learn: This is the pattern of behaviour used by a criminal scumbag white-collar fraud merchant, so commit it to memory. It might save you some cash somewhere down the line. DYODD, dude.

UPDATE: A reader (whose personal details are reserved) send in a screenshot of a mail he sent over at Pierce's contact page on his website:

Goldman Sachs on the Peru election result

As well as calling "buy" on Freeport (FCX) this morning, the Vampire Squid decided to publish this on the Peru election result.

According to the official vote count, with 86.6% of total votes already in, Mr. Humala (Nationalist party) got 51.18% of the valid votes while Mrs. Fujimori (Fuerza 2011) got 48.17%. Mrs. Fujimori is likely to concede the election within the next few hours. Mr. Humala already gave a victory speech in the early morning hours in which he stroked a moderate tone. He said he would lead a government of national unity and that he would preserve the economic growth and the good policies of the current administration. Moreover he pledged to improve redistribution policies and comply with his campaign promises of increasing social spending.

In our view, the fact that Mr. Humala has won the elections with the support from moderate votes and moreover, that his political coalition does not have a majority in Congress, suggests that he would find it very difficult to impose a radical reform agenda early on during his tenure. Last night, his main economic advisors said that investors should have no doubts about the direction of macroeconomic policies in Peru, because Mr. Humala is committed to maintain the independence of the central bank and a disciplined fiscal policy.

In terms of things to look forward to over the next few days, Mr. Humala is likely to begin nominating cabinet members. In particular, he is expected to appoint the Prime Minister and the Minister of Finance. In our view, it is likely that Mr. Humala will appoint independents to these posts in order to reduce uncertainties.

Eduardo Cavallo

IKN back. For what it's worth, your author has heard from more than one source in the polite circles of Lima society that Ollanta Humala wants the current FinMin, Ismael Benavides, to keep the job and stay on as his Economy Meister. Others say that his finance boffin in the election campaign, Kurt Burneo, will get the job. I think he's set for the chair of the CenBank, personally. But WTFDIK? DYODD.

Chart of the day is....

...the Peru Stock Exchange IGBVL "General" index, 12 months to date:

On Friday it closed at 21,227.68 We'll see where it stands tomorrow morning, too. Place your bets, ladies and gentlemen...

The IKN Weekly, out now

IKN109 has just been sent out to subscribers. Just making sure you know.

Peru Presidential Election Results: Exit Polls make Ollanta Humala the winner

It's not yet official and we're best advised to wait until at least the more accurate but still unofficial "fast count" results due around 8pm Peru time (9pm est), but the 4pm close of votes has just gone and Peru is allowed to give fairly accurate exit polls to the world. Here they are:

Ipsos/Apoyo: Ollanta Humala 52.6%, Keiko Fujimori 47.4%

Datum: Ollanta Humala 52.7%, Keiko Fujimori 47.3%

CPI: Ollanta Humala 52.5%, Keiko Fujimori 47.5%

In other words, barring a statistical freak Ollanta Humala is the new President Elect of Peru and will take office on July 28th. We'll update this post at 9pm EST with the fast count results, which is probably the same moment that Keiko Fujimori concedes defeat. Pisco sours served, the end.

UPDATE: We hear the normally very accurate "rapid count" result is 52.2% Ollanta, 47.8% Keiko.As soon as that is officially confirmed by Peru's election agency I'll put a link up here. It's now time to get on with writing the Weekly section about what to expect tomorrow.

UPDATE 2: This is good from Reuters, a round-up of reactions from various market commentators. For the record, put me in the Benito Berber camp. Also for the record, Alberto Bernal of Bulltick has always been a zero on Peru and he shows it once again here.

Update 3: The rapid counts look like this:

Ipsos/Apoyo: Ollanta Humala 51.4%, Keiko Fujimori 48.6%

Datum: Ollanta Humala 51.0%, Keiko Fujimori 49.0%

CPI: Ollanta Humala 52.2%, Keiko Fujimori 47.8%

Finally, official vote watchdog "Transparencia": Ollanta Humala 51.3%, Keiko Fujimori 48.7%

These "fast count" results and NOT the official results, but have proven to be historically very accurate and close to the final election figures in Peru. So take this one to the bank: Ollanta Humala is the next President of Peru. That is all.

Update 4: A bit of jollity and a classic out of Peru Fail this evening, which I'll translate underneath. In the photo we see the map of Peru, with the red colour showing the departments won by Ollanta Humala and the orange departments won by Keiko Fujimori.

person 1: "Who did the little blue ones vote for?"

person 2: "It's called Lake Titicaca"

Message for subscribers

The question I've had for days is how I'd run the Weekly today in the light of the unfolding election in Peru. As it turns out, after considering options and now seeing the way the last couple of days of the campaign as well as the writing has unfolded this weekend I'm going to hold back on publication until this evening and incorporate at least the exit poll results into the script. As the result of the election is going to affect at least a few covered stocks one way or the other, on reflection adding in specifics for the sake of a couple of extra hours seems the right way to go about today.

So all that is a long-winded way of saying "expect The IKN Weekly in the evening hours EST, rather than the afternoon hours". TIA.

UPDATE: We've just heard from the necessary places that as well as the exit polling that will be available as soon as the voting closes at 4pm Peru time (5pm EST), the results of the so-called "fast count" should be available at 8pm Peru time (9pm EST). This "fast count" result is traditionally a very accurate forecaster for the official vote count that takes up to five days and typically gets within a 0.5% margin of error, so as its publication shouldn't be too deep into the evening that's the one we'll be waiting for today.

In the Argentine ski resort of Bariloche, that white stuff falling from the sky this winter isn't snow

It's ash from the erupting Puyehue volcano, 60 miles to the West in Chile. Here's a shot of the streets of Bariloche last night....

...and here's the satellite image.

..and here's more in English from Reuters. 

UPDATE: Excellent photoshow of Bariloche and surroundings at La Nacion today, right here. 

UPDATE 2: You want really really pretty photos of an erupting Volcano? Chile's La Tercera got really really pretty photos of an erupting volcano. h/t settydude

Peru polls on the day before the election (UPDATED)

Despite their publication in Peru being against the law in the last week of an election, the pollsters have been out and about and telling foreign journalists about their results. These then tell the non-Peru world and..oh my stars!...in the 21st century world of the interwebnetpipes that news blackout sure works well.

So today pollster Datum has just called Ollanta Humala ahead with 50.8% of valid votes, with Keiko Fujimori on 49.2%, according to Reuters. The poll was taken on June 2nd and third, 5015 people gave their opinions and the margin of error is +/- 1.4%. 

Meanwhile, we're waiting for Peru's most respected pollster Ipsos/Apoyo to give its last poll at 6pm local time (7pm EST), about two hours from now. We hear it will include opinions up to 1pm today, so fresh as a daisy it will be. Your humble scribe will update this post when that report is available.

Update: Big news out of Ipsos/Apoyo this afternoon. Just a couple of minutes ago, Peru's most respected pollster called Ollanta Humala ahead with 51.9% of valid votes and Keiko Fujimori on 48.1%. The poll was taken today, June 4th, from 4000 people and has a margin of error of +/- 1.6%. This means that it's the first time for weeks that Ollanta Humala has shown a polling result that beats out the margin of error. Data from this Reuters news report.

Not the best planned robbery of all time

Here we go with a direct translation of this report from Argentina about an incident in the city of Rosario last Monday..

Rosario: Thieves Rob a Cybercafé But Are Detained Later Due To Leaving Facebook Page Open

Two young delinquents who had assaulted a cybercafé in the Santa Fe city of Rosario were arrested and taken into custody after one of them forgot to close their Facebook account, which led to their identification. One other remains at large.


The incident occurred in the early hours of Monday morning, when the three thieves entered the cybercafé located on the corner of Paraguay and Catamarca Avenues and, after using the computers there while waiting for all the other clients to leave, one of the three threatened the staff with a gun and took one cellular phone, 320 pesos (U$80) and an identity card, after which they fled.


A little later when police arrived  and, while making an inspection of the shop, found that one of the computers that had been used by the thieves had not been closed down and managed, via his Facebook account, to take down the details of his name, address and the address of the school he attends.


On Wednesday afternoon police officers went to the Comercio Nº2 JJ de Urquiza High School, located at Palestine Ave 1551, and arrest Federico Barbosa, 18, who had taken the ID card and cell phone of the staff member. Then one of the other youths who had participated in the theft was also arrested, whilst a third still remains at large.

The Friday OT: The Verve; Bittersweet Symphony

This is the Friday OT because:

1) I heard it in the cool café in town this morning and it sounded great after all these years (and the owners of that joint have seriously good taste in music, btw, tonces salu2 al Pepe y Claudia)

2) You try to walk down a street like this round here and you'll either get arrested or beaten up.

3) It's one of the best intros to any song I can think of right now.

Enjoy

Mixed Friday thoughts

Tweet of the day goes to Peruvian reporter Pedro Rivas Ugaz for this tweet that translates as, 

"Darling I had a nightmare. I dreamt that Keiko Fujimori and Ollanta Humala were the only candidates left in the second round run-off."

 My stars, it's nearly all over and they'll all STFU soon. Be thankful for small mercies.

Bear Creek Mining (BCM.v) is getting the NOBS fundies treatment this weekend, subbers. We'll also be making a pretty specific recommendation on the stock that will depend on news flow in the next five to six days (not three days). Until then, no rush.

McDonald's added more jobs than the USA in May. Seriously. The only question left is to wonder how they're going to keep adding liquidity to the market without calling it QE3. I'm sure they'll find a way...that bank reserve ratio, for one thing.

Bayfield Ventures (BYV.v) is up this morning on this news, which goes to show yet again how stupid people are conned by crooks. Yeah you might think 20.35m of 2.27g/t gold is good, but you'd be harder pressed to like the reality, which is two skinny veins and a 16.8m remnant of 0.321 g/t Au. A stock strictly for Casey Research sheep.

In Peru, they're so desperate to stop Humala that they've wheeled out the crazy loophead Roger Noriega to say that thanks to his extra special secret intel that he can't talk about, he knows that Chávez has handed over U$12m to Ollanta in the last six months. Two Weeks Notice points out just how silly Roger really is.

x

The gold/jobs Friday guessing game

Guess when the US jobs number came out, simply by looking at this 5 min chart of gold futures:

If you guessed 07:30am, you guessed well.

Chart of the day is....

...the Presidential approval ratings for Chile's Sebastian Piñera, out yesterday.

 That question says, "Independently of your own political position, do you approve or disapprove of the way on which Sebastian Piñera is running his government?"

At 36% approval and 56% disapproval in the Adimark/GfK poll (one of Chile's more respected pollsters) it's easily the worst he's polled and worse than anything suffered by his predecessor, Michelle Bachelet, even in her dog days of the Santiago public transport system snafu (remember that?). According to the pollsters, Piñera's been hit by the HydroAysén project issue, the subsequent images of social disorder (and tear gas attacks used to quell them) as well as a lacklustre May 21st speech. Read the whole report by downloading it from this link right here.

Let's all laugh at the poor people...

...who buy Casey Research stock picks.

As Casey Research has an extremely selective memory when it comes to its track record, this chart is offered up  as evidence of the the snake oil salespeople's true abilities. We could have gone for Ram Power (RPG'to), that excellent Marin Scumball Katusa "top pick" of course, but let's keep it topical and go for the most recent Casey recos.

And while we're on the subject of Lobito those still left in his other recent underperforming dogpick, Gold Bullion Development Corp (GBB.v), would be wise to exit before the Vancouver junior mining conference and bunfest this weekend. Just sayin'.

UPDATE: And it just gets better. Today Lobito has called "buy second tranche" on EAS.v and notes that although the recent 43-101 resource was a total PoS and he's in the hole to the tune of 30% he can only "see an opportunity".  So pathetic it's almost funny, now all we need to watch is the initial price switcheroo that Casey Research constantly uses to scam its clients. Will they dare to shift the "initial price" to today's $3.57 in future episodes? Watch this space.....

The Ipsos/Apoyo survey PDF: Download it here

On this link is the PDF from Ipsos/Apoyo, published this morning, that puts Keiko Fujimori in a slight lead against Ollanta Humala for the Sunday June 5th Presidential run-off election in Peru. It's worth underscoring that Ipsos/Apoyo is generally considered the most reliable pollster in Peru and has a decent track record of prediction.

Here again is the paste of page 1 that gives an overview of contents (and yeah, it's in Spanish):

La principal consecuencia del debate presidencial habría sido una mayor definición de los electores a favor de ambos candidatos y una disminución de la propensión a votar en blanco o viciado.
��Con respecto al simulacro anterior:
��Keiko Fujimori ha incrementado su intención de voto de 43,5 a 45,8% gracias su recuperación en Lima y a un avance en el norte.
��Ollanta Humala ha incrementado su intención de voto de 42,6 a 43,9% debido a un crecimiento en el oriente.
��El voto en blanco y viciado ha disminuido de 13,9 a 10,3%
��En términos de votos válidos, Keiko Fujimori tiene ahora 51,1 y Ollanta Humala 48,9%. La ligera ventaja de la candidata de Fuerza 2011 estátodavía dentro del empate estadístico, considerando el margen de error de esta medición que es de +1,8 puntos.
��Esta medición no incluye la intención de voto de los peruanos que residen en el extranjero. Se estima que este electorado podría añadirla entre 0.5 y 1% de votación a Fujimori. Tampoco mide con precisión la intención de voto de los lugares más alejados de la sierra y selva rurales, que podrían ser algo más favorables a Humala.
��Cabe recordar que este encuesta no es una predicción. En el simulacro, los electores indecisos (alrededor del 10%) han expresado una intención de voto que podría cambiar el día de las elecciones.

New Peru Poll: Keiko Fujimori 51%, Ollanta Humala 49% according to Ipsos/Apoyo

This just off the wires (again as yesterday there's no link yet, this is pasted from the Reuters subscription service..there will be links available later for sure). The difference with this poll is that it's done by Ipsos/Apoyo, generally regarded as the most trustworthy in Peru.

It's going to be very close, but the Lima stock market is rallying hard on this news all the same. Here's the paste-out:

09:43 02Jun11 RTRS-PERU IPSOS POLL SHOWS RIGHT-WING FUJIMORI WITH 51 PCT OF VOTE,  LEFT-WING HUMALA AT 49 PCT BEFORE SUNDAY VOTE - SOURCES

 

For Related News, Double Click on one of these codes:[C] [D] [E] [M] [O] [T] [U] [MTL] [GRO] [SOF] [OIL] [MNI] [NAT] [ELN] [NAW] [G] [PE] [LATAM] [EMRG] [POL] [VOTE] [PRO] [GEN] [PIL] [CTXT] [MIN] [MET] [GVD] [DBT] [FRX] [NSS] [CMPNY] [LEN] [RTRS]

Update: Here's the summary page of the Ipsos/Apoyo survey. It's in Spanish but it's all there. Basically voter intention is now 45.8% Keiko vs 43.9% Ollanta, with spoiled ballots down to 10.3%. The "valid votes" number is 51.1% Keiko vs 48.9% Ollanta. Ipsos/Apoyo also notes that Keiko can enjoy a boost of between 0.5% to 1% from Peruvians living abroad.

There were 3000 people interviewed for this poll, with a margin of error of +/- 1.8%

La principal consecuencia del debate presidencial habría sido una mayor definición de los electores a favor de ambos candidatos y una disminución de la propensión a votar en blanco o viciado.
��Con respecto al simulacro anterior:
��Keiko Fujimori ha incrementado su intención de voto de 43,5 a 45,8% gracias su recuperación en Lima y a un avance en el norte.
��Ollanta Humala ha incrementado su intención de voto de 42,6 a 43,9% debido a un crecimiento en el oriente.
��El voto en blanco y viciado ha disminuido de 13,9 a 10,3%
��En términos de votos válidos, Keiko Fujimori tiene ahora 51,1 y Ollanta Humala 48,9%. La ligera ventaja de la candidata de Fuerza 2011 estátodavía dentro del empate estadístico, considerando el margen de error de esta medición que es de +1,8 puntos.
��Esta medición no incluye la intención de voto de los peruanos que residen en el extranjero. Se estima que este electorado podría añadirla entre 0.5 y 1% de votación a Fujimori. Tampoco mide con precisión la intención de voto de los lugares más alejados de la sierra y selva rurales, que podrían ser algo más favorables a Humala.
��Cabe recordar que este encuesta no es una predicción. En el simulacro, los electores indecisos (alrededor del 10%) han expresado una intención de voto que podría cambiar el día de las elecciones.

UPDATE 2: Download your copy of the Ipsos/Apoyo PDF from here

Update 3: And the fun just keeps on coming. We now have pollster CPI calling Humala ahead by 50.5% to 49.5% of valid votes, with a sample of 2200 people and a margin of error of +/-1.8%. 

x

Oh my stars! What a horrible feeling

I actually agree with Andres Oppenheimer...ugh, icky feeling of spiders crawling crawling all over me and hot'n'cold flushes and everything. Here's how LatAm's normally most annoying columnist finishes his admittedly good piece on the Peru election:

My opinion: I know I’m going to disappoint many of you by saying this, but I’m skeptical about both candidates’ claims that they will respect Peru’s democratic institutions. I feel like Fernando de Szyslo, Peru’s best-known living artist and one of Mario Vargas Llosa’s best friends, who said in an interview with the daily El Comercio: “I’m sorry, but I can’t vote for any of them.”
I guess that many Peruvians feel the same way, and will vote exclusively on pocketbook issues. The poorest of the poor will vote for Humala, and the emerging middle classes for Fujimori.
On Sunday, we will find out whether, after two decades of growth in which poverty rates dropped from 54 percent to 31 percent of the population, Peru has already become a middle-class country, or whether a majority of Peruvians feel they have been bypassed by their country’s prosperity.

Chart of the day is....

...a reader request. It's the amount of money that Google Adsense adverts make for this blog per month.

For what it's worth, 2009 averaged out at U$153 and bits, per month 2010 at $203 and bits per month. As for that big drop this year, that's explained by the couple of months I decided not to run the Adsense ads here and they were only on the RSS and email digest feeds during that time. In the end $200 a month isn't enormous money but it does cover household bills so it does come in useful. But the main reason I like Adsense and the reason I've gone back to using the ads here is that it helps the blog pay for itself and makes it useful in its own right. That's just me and my warped sense of values, though.

So now that's all out the way, anything else you'd like to know while we're at it? My shoe size, perhaps?*

*Good morning Vancouver :-)

A tornado crosses the Connecticut River at Springfield, Mass

Totally OT, totally impressive.

Eurasia on Peru's election

Political risk people Eurasia are calling it all the following way. FWIW (not much) I don't agree with their call (and notably they've been calling it for Ollanta for weeks now, when most people were sticking with "too close to call") but WTFDIK and they could be right. Here's the mailer sent out to its private clients that was published today just before 1pm EST:

The latest polls suggest the 5 June second round runoff between nationalist candidate Ollanta Humala and center-right candidate Keiko Fujimori will be very tight. However, we still believe Humala holds a slight edge and is thus favored to win the presidency. While Fujimori is ahead in most polls, her lead has narrowed, which suggests negative campaign could be finally hurting her. In addition, Humala looks likely to win a larger share of undecided voters, who are mostly poor and therefore tend to be less concerned about the risks commonly associated with Humala. Despite the tight race, the risk of serious post-election political instability is low, even though a slow counting of votes could generate significant noise in the weeks following the election.

Most of the polls released over the weekend show center-right candidate Keiko Fujimori slightly ahead of nationalist candidate Ollanta Humala, but her lead has narrowed from last week. The latest Ipsos/Apoyo poll shows support for Fujimori at 41% (down from 43% in the previous poll) and support for Humala stable at 39%. In an Ipsos/Apoyo vote simulation, Fujimori had 50.5% of valid votes (down from 51.4% last week) and Humala 49.5% (up from 48.6%). A Datum vote simulation shows Fujimori with an almost five-point lead (52.3% vs 47.7%), but Fujimori's lead has narrowed slightly from previous polls. Another vote simulation conducted by the Catholic University of Lima (PUCP) shows the two candidates practically tied; Fujimori has 44.2% support and Humala has 43.7% (50.3% vs 49.75 in terms of valid votes). And an Imasen vote simulation shows Humala leading 50.8% versus 49.2%. The average of these polls (expressed in valid votes) shows Fujimori leading 50.6% versus 49.4%. Sunday May 29 was the last day pollsters could release their results before the 5 June run-off, although polls may be leaked later this week.

These results suggest the race will be very tight, but we remain of the view that Humala has an edge. Fujimori's narrower lead in polls suggests that negative associations related to her father's track record for corruption and human right violations, which have intensified in the past few weeks, could be hurting her bid. The increase in Fujimori's rejection rate over the course of May is further evidence that that this is occurring. In Ipsos/Apoyo's 9 May poll, Fujimori's rejection rate stood at 34%; it has increased is subsequent polls and reached 39% in the 29 May poll. In the meantime, Humala's rejection rate has fluctuated around 40%. Earlier in the month, his rate was five points higher than Fujimori's, but the difference has narrowed to just one point - the 29 May Ipsos/Apoyo poll shows Humala's rejection rate at 40%. The latest polls did not capture the impact on voters of last Sunday's televised debate. The impact will most likely be very limited, but if anything the debate will probably help Humala at the margin. He was able to expose clearly the negative aspects of Fujimori's father government and tie her to his administration. While these issues constitute a significant liability for Fujimori, they haven't received much media attention yet. From the perspective of undecided voters, this is what probably stood out in the debate.

Such campaign dynamics will help Humala gain a higher share of support from undecided voters, whose profile suggests many will lean towards Humala. Undecided voters are concentrated among poor, who tend to be less concerned about the risks commonly associated with Humala (that he will be a radical) and more sensitive to accusations of corruption. According to the latest Ipsos/Apoyo poll, the highest rate of undecided voters (9%) is in the "D" class which represents about a third of the electorate. Rates are just slightly lower in the other socioeconomic classes, but this indicates that poor voters constitute a majority of undecided voters. According to the PUCP poll, which we view as credible, the rates of undecided voters are comparatively higher among the poor. There are 8% of undecided voters in the "D" and "E" social classes, while only 4% of voters in the "C" class and 5% in the "A" and "B" classes, respectively, remain undecided. Additionally, the number of undecided voters could be higher that polls suggest. A poll conducted after the 2006 shows that 15% of voters chose their candidate on Election Day. With undecided voters more likely to lean towards Humala, this could tilt the election in his favor.

Despite the tight race, the risk of instability stemming from potential questioning of the electoral result is probably low. The more worrisome scenario here is one in which Humala loses by a very narrow margin. Some of his advisors expressed concern about the risk of fraud and could therefore raise doubts about the result. But Peru's electoral authorities are fairly independent, so the risk of widespread fraud that could justify serious questioning of the results looks low. In addition, Humala's willingness to question the results probably won't be strong. He has made the strategic decision to move closer to the center of the political spectrum, so serious questioning of the result could undermine the credibility of his move and thus his chances of winning future elections. And if he does decide to question the results, his ability to conduct nation-wide protests that paralyses large cities will be limited given that his supporters are concentrated in rural areas and probably lack the party structure and cohesion to sustain widespread protests. Fujimori has affirmed emphatically that she will accept the result. Despite the low risk of serious questioning, a slow counting of votes and/or potential requests of recounting could generate significant noise and doubts about the final result during the weeks that will follow the vote.
 
Erasto Almeida
Analyst, Latin America

latest Peru polling news off the wires: Technical dead heat June 1st, according to Datum

Polls are still being taken in Peru, but due to the laws there they're not allowed to be published. This is a paste off the Reuters wire service just a few minutes ago (so no link, sorry, this isn't the Reuters internet service but the paying client wire). 

11:20 01Jun11 RTRS-LATEST DATUM POLL SHOWS TIGHTENING PERU RACE, FUJIMORI HAS EDGE  OVER HUMALA BUT IS IN A 'TECHNICAL TIE' - SOURCE

11:26 01Jun11 RTRS-Datum poll shows tie in Peru race - source 

11:38 01Jun11 RTRS-PERU STOCKS DOWN 5 PCT AFTER SOURCE SAYS LATEST DATUM POLL  SHOWS TIGHTENING PERU RACE IS IN A 'TECHNICAL TIE'  

(Note: Election law forbids publication of polls in Peru a week prior to June 5 voting)   

LIMA, June 1 (Reuters) - Peru's presidential race has tightented to a "technical tie" with a slight advantage for right-wing lawmaker Keiko Fujimori, a source briefed on a survey by Datum said on Wednesday.  Datum's previous poll released on Sunday said Fujimori had a lead of 4.6 points over left-wing Ollanta Humala in a mock vote it organized, greater than the margin of error.  Polls by other survey firms on Sunday had shown a technical tie between the candidates.

Update: We got a link for that Reuters story on the open net now. Here it is (Spanish language). Meanwhile, a source that's proven pretty accurate in previous times tells your author that the Datum numbers, due out tomorrow, are 50.3% Keiko and 49.7% Ollanta.(scrap that, apparently not the right numbers now...working on it. folks).

Today's junior mining company share price future predictive market quiz question

Considering the effect that stocks such as Great Panther (GPR.to) (GPL) or First Majestic (FR.to) (AG) saw when they got listed, what do you think is going to happen to the share price of Fortuna Silver (FVI.to) when it announces it's getting listed on the New York Stock Exchange?

I'm expected that announcement soon, by the way.

Yeah really. And yes, I'm long FVI (if you don't know that, you're new round here and so "welcome!").

keiko win = up, ollanta win = down...faites vos jeux, mesdames et messieures....or not

Thus conscience does make cowards of us all,
And thus the native hue of resolution
Is sicklied o'er with the pale cast of thought,
And enterprises of great pitch and moment
With this regard their currents turn awry
And lose the name of action.
Hamlet, act 3 Scene 1, LL 82-87

Or Dirty Harry if you like: Feeling lucky, punk?

But what we can say is that ignorance in Peru is evident at every turn. For example, reports of investors this morning asking whether it's true that Peru has suspended all mining concessions. People, if that's the level of your worries, do yourself a favour and leave South America well alone, because as day follows night a dumbass will always be parted from their wedge.

Chart of the day is...

...a ten day comparative between Rio Alto Mining (RIO.v), Minera Andes (MAI.to) and Candente Copper (DNT.to):

Because I may still feel grotty, but there's enough juice in tanks to follow the trades. DYODD.