8/7/11

Justin Bieber and Selena Gomez are breaking up, apparently

Oh, and here's the S&P futures chart. It's 6:05pm Sunday local time here and the index futures have just opened. We're now off over 10% in the last two sessions.

Gold's at U$1691 right now, too. But please... spare a thought for Justin.

UPDATE: S&P futures now at 1179, which is 12 spots above that open you see there. This is good, so we can now concentrate fully on the Teen Choice Awards ceremony tonight without worrying too much about world financial dooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooom

The IKN Weekly, out now


IKN118 has just been sent to subscribers. Just thought I'd tell you, just in case you're one of those subscribers and your copy doesn't arrive,

Mailbag on the gold/platinum ratio

As I've suddenly become interested in platinum the metal (there's always a reason, no?), the mail received this morning from reader 'M' caught my attention and included this:
"....anything to read into the way gold bullion has been catching up with the price of platinum [?]..."
That got me scuttling off to the chartysites which led to this, a chart that tracks the price ratio of gold to platinum over the last three years:

 The ratio touched 1:1 back at the end of 2008 (wasn't THAT a fun time for the market?) and here we are again, closing in on 1:1. Now I dunno if that means anything, but it's interesting enough to put on the blog on a Sunday. 

Feel free to talk amongst yourselves.

IKN recommends: Notes From The Rabbit Hole

The subscription service over at BiiWii, costing a teeny tiny $26/month, is something that I fully recommend to all readers interested in junior mining stocks and the stock market in general. Gary does a fantastic job with his charts and analysis thereof (he's the only TA guy I have time for), with today's edition NFTRH147 up there with the best of his work. You should be a subscriber of his service already but if not, be one now. Link here, please use it.



Disclosure: Even though Gary's a friend, no financial benefits of any sort come my way by recommending NFTRH to you. I reco it because it's a damned good service, that's all.

sunday songtime extra

I've had this tune in my head all weekend, thanks to the the WSJ.


Reminds me of Northern hemisphere summertimes, too. So it's only fair to share.

8/6/11

Child vs Piñera

In just six seconds....Child Wins!


Yay!

Get a free subscription to Global Finance

This offer gets run on the blog every now and again because it's one that gets taken up by more readers every time. You click through, you sign up (free, free 100% free and stays that way), you get your subscription (I've had mine for over two years now, the quality deliveries keep on coming).

So here's the blurb, up to you now.

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Entertaining, educating and edifying things to read this weekend

Juanita Jean goes into Texas Gov. Rick Perry's academic record and finds mediocrity all over the place, apart from the bits that involve animal husbandry and guns. And it's not as if his mediocrity came up against Yale or Harvard students either, as JJ points out:
"Y’all, this is Texas A&M, where they had to rename the town of Bryan to College Station so that the college students would know where to get off the train."
Multiple guffaws await you over at Juanita Jean's today.

Market Narrative wonders why your humble scribe doesn't whack into Century Mining (CMM.v) any longer. The answer's that, like Metanor (MTO.v), there's little in the way of challenge but Market Narrative makes a wonderpost on CMM.v himself. You gotta love the linkslist he put together on the CMM news releases. More hearty yoks.

Kid Dynamite does the heavy lifting, reads through the chatter about S&P's US ratings downgrade and puts together all the things you need to know in one easy-to-read post.
Jesse's Café Américain runs a posts entitled "Here Comes the 'Freedom To Invest Act'" and points out the lexicon fun. "As a general rule of thumb, any law in America that contains the word 'Freedom' or 'Patriot' in its title is brazenly promoting a crime, or a fraud, or some self serving corruption of the common good." True dat.

Gold (GLD) & Silver (SLV) & Miners (GDX) & Juniors (GDXJ)

Here's the chart that points out a simple truth:


When the going gets tough, the world sells its juniors and runs to mommy. Whimpering.

8/5/11

The Friday OT: The Walker Brothers; The sun ain't gonna shine anymore

Kirsty sneaks in on the rails and brings us this gem rarity of a video....love the close-up headshot


From the days when people wrote songs and then trained their voices to sing. Classic

Murdoch

Up to his usual standards.



How you gonna kick it?
Gonna kick it route down


Via Felix Salmon

How to make a small fortune in junior mining stocks

1) Start with a large fortune.

2) Follow Louis James's advice over at Casey Research.

3) Wait three months.


I mean, if Lobito thought East Asia (EAS.v) was a bargain at $5, he should be buying with both hands today, no? And getting you to buy, right? Beats me why volume is so low today, what with Lobito pumping this dog yet again yesterday....

I've just bought some of this

A quick trade planned for this admittedly small chunk that won't be included as part of any core holding.


The drop was just too tempting and I've had cash on the sidelines for this kind of reason. DYODD.

UPDATE: Added more, not so small a chunk now. Worth saying out loud here something that I whack subbers over the head with all the time: I'm not a great very-short-term trader and my timing often sucks. However I do know value when I see it and sometimes...well, you just gotta stop the jawing and put your hard-earned where your mouth is.

UPDATE 2: Yup, my timing sucks. I'll live.

UPDATE 3: Hey, not so bad. Please ignore update 2 (that happened when FVI dipped under 5). Methinks the market is rallying on thoughts of next week's FOMC. By the way, the single most fascinating stock out there, for me at least, is Stillwater (SWC). No position in that one but I'd love to be a fly on the wall of that boardroom these last 48 hours.

UPDATE 4: This received from reader "B", a market professional, about the above comment on Stillwater (SWC):
Agree with you.. Stillwater is extremely interesting down here. It’s ridiculously cheap trading at base metals multiples for a largely platinum group metals producer; especially one outside of South Africa with all those labour and power issues driving costs up.
The deal with Peregrine is locked in that SWC has 0 outs, aside from walking away and getting sued, but management has no intention of doing that.  
It’d be crazy if Xstrata or someone came in and scooped up SWC for $18… but my gut tells me nothing happens and the deal goes through as planned.
Once they drill up Peregrine in Q4/11 I think the market will like what they see and the stock (SWC) will see big gains.

UPDATE 5: Closed the trade, taken the neat little profit. The end

Ecuador delays its mining contracts...again

Hey, remember those negotiations between Correa's Ecuador and the big mining companies that want to go play there? Yeah, you know, those deals that were supposed to be agreed upon and signed in 2010....then January 2011....then March....then we were assured that July would see the done deal...then most recently negotiations would wrap up end July and be signed in August?

Well, make that October now. Here's a translation of the top of this report:

Rafael Correa: Mining Activity Will Be Beneficial

Various contracts will be signed next October for mineral exploitation, amongst them that of the Rio Blanco project of International Minerals (IMC), situated in the Molleturo area.

Date of publication: 4 Aug 2011

During his visit to Cuenca, President Rafael Correa said during a visit to the Azuay government that he had hoped to conclude negotiations this month, but the demands of the mining companies had delayed the process.

Copper: A Russian proverb

"Many people who have gold in the house are looking for copper outside."

Cuprum autem infirma but as mentioned previously, until it seriously breaks $4 to the downside and seriously stays there, nihil mutatum.

Chart of the day is...

...


Have a nice day.

8/4/11

We Twitter


After originally deriding the whole thing, I've now changed my mind and have really been getting into Twitter recently. So why not come over and join in the fun?

Chile today

 
Click here to an excellent gallery of photos by EMOL from the student disturbances in Chile today as they march, cause general havoc (good for them) and protest against the education they're offered by the State. So far today there have been 527 arrests, we hear. That number's likely to go up, too.

Louis James of Casey Research needs to remember the basics: When In Hole, Stop Digging

Better a would-be whistleblower than a would-be geologist that 1) doesn't have a clue as to what he's talking about but 2) insists on bullshitting the people that pay his salary. Louis "lobito" James goes from bad to worse and deserves all that's coming to him. The quote below is from this month's Casey "International Speculator" as the shameless pumping asshole discusses his "term or the month", smearing, and tries (and utterly fails) to make a defence case for his bullshit pump Bayfield (BYV.v).

Bottom line, yes, beware of smearing, but also don’t let yourself get stampeded by critics seeking to make
names for themselves as would-be whistle-blowers.

Dude, don't you get it yet? It's your word, that of an unqualified stock pusher, against the BCSC. The freakin' BCSC made Bayfield correct its BS, nobody else. You lose, dumbass.

Peru's metal production slipping

Hidden behind the record and near-record dollar revenues for main products copper and gold, Peru's production numbers for metals should be real cause for concern for the new Humala government. Gold isn't great but is getting propped up by the disgusting practices over in Madre de Dios...
...copper is regular (though also somewhat lacklustre recently) because nearly all of it comes from the mega-pit operations (Cuajone, Toquepala, Antamina, Cerro Verde etc)...

...but the other metals have classic warning signs of production fatigue that are clear to see.
NB: Please note that the Y-axes on these charts have been altered to show the changes more clearly. I'm not trying to fool anyone, just trying to make the changes as clear as possible.

Silver

Zinc

Lead

If I were Peru's flamante Mining Minister I'd be more than a little worried about this trend, cos it's not a friend.

Japan's FinMin Noda...nice guy

After all, if he's giving away free money like this he can't be all bad.

dyodd

Malaga's (MLG.to) poor 2q11 production numbers

Wondering why Malaga (MLG.to) hasn't announced its 2q11 production numbers to the world? Wonder no longer, this is why:


It doesn't have to inform the Canadian market, however it is obliged to tell the Ministry of Energy and Mining in Peru of its monthly production tonnages. As the June numbers were announced yesterday, we now know that the 2q11 at Malaga was nothing short of a disaster. C'mon, hands up who remembers all that about how wonderful life would be once the new machinery were installed and production tonnages raised?

Jay Taylor actually pumps this dog. A case of fool and money parted if ever there was one.

Chart of the day is...

...GLD, the gold ETF, 12 month chart plus squiggles.

If you think I'm selling mine just cos the chart looks overbought in the short term, you're plain mad.

8/3/11

Minefinders (MFN) (MFL.to) 2q11 financials

A simple yet interesting chart from your author's numbercrunch of the 2q11 numbers:


On the whole MFN gave us a good set of numbers, by the way.

This must be drawn to your attention

The finest piece of script on the US economy I've ever read is at this link. Here's how it starts, you will click through to read it all and you will click through right now.

SEWARD, NE—Claiming he wasn't afraid to let everyone in attendance know about "the real mess we're in," Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke reportedly got drunk Tuesday and told everyone at Elwood's Corner Tavern about how absolutely fucked the U.S. economy actually is.

Bernanke, who sources confirmed was "totally sloshed," arrived at the drinking establishment at approximately 5:30 p.m., ensconced himself upon a bar stool, and consumed several bottles of Miller High Life and a half-dozen shots of whiskey while loudly proclaiming to any patron who would listen that the economic outlook was "pretty goddamned awful if you want the God's honest truth."
CONTINUES HERE

Gold crystal ball



"I look deeply into my crystal ball....and I see....plenty of appearances on BNN and suckers sending money to me..."

Portage Resources (POTG.pk): Don't say I didn't try to warn you

A chart:


An owl:

A whole bunch of links to the posts we've run here to point out the bleedin' obvious. The first one is here, dated June 17th and with a title like "Portage Resources (POTG.pk), a pump and dump scam" it couldn't have been much clearer (at least I think so). Then here's number two, number three, number four, number five, number six, number seven, number eight, number nine and number ten (obsessive? moi?). Today's makes eleven and I think this will be the last one on Portage Resources (POTG.pk) because if you haven't taken the point by now you need to do some remedials in 4th grade.

This company has been running a bullshit scam and you, dear long, are a sucker. However, the money you've thrown down the toilet here won't be totally wasted if you decide to learn from your noob error and not get fooled again...but that's between you and your karma, nothing I can do to help you there. DYODD. 

The end

Disclosure: No position in POTG.pk, not now, not ever, not long, not short. I did try to get a lend on it when it was around 90c or a $1, but the market was bone dry at the time. But really, this series has only had your education at heart, not trying to make money off these scumbags.

Nothing new under the sun

A quote by H. L Mencken that shows there's nothing new about all these things our modern crop of moronic silverbug/goldbug/LiveFreeOrDie warriors rail and complain over:
"The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary."
Seriously, the day some of these idiots get off their high horses, open a few books and read lines written by people who are or were far, far more intelligent than they are will be a great day for the interwebs. You are all boring, every single last fucking idiot one of you, and bring nothing of worth to any debate, so do us all a favour and...


...or if you're physically incapable of that, the least you can do is stop filling up my inbox with utter drivel.

UPDATE: I'm sorry if you're feeling upset now. Here's a nice cartoon bunny for you


UPDATE 2: And now some music dedicated with heartfelt wishes. Volume to 11, please.

Chart of the day is...

...an update of (last did to May) monthly oil production in Colombia, 2007 to date.


Yesterday we got the July 2011 figures from the Mining & Energy minister and Colombia pumped an average of 929,226 barrels per day (which would have been more but for that Rubiales protest a couple of weeks ago that PRE.to promised didn't exist). That compares 783K barrels in July 2010, 657k barrels in July 2009 and I could continue. Perhaps the best metric is that Colombia's barrel-per-day output in the first seven months of 2011 is 16.5% up on the same period of last year. Historical data from here.

8/2/11

Chile: President Piñera's approval ratings drop to all-time low

The 30% approval (62% disapproval) scored by Seb Piñera in the Adimark GfK poll released today isn't just the worst approval rating he's had; it's the worst approval rating ever scored by any Chilean president.


So IKN goes for the succinct analysis commentary: It sucks. Casillero del Diablo served, the end.

One news source per country

On more than one occasion, usually after getting a mailed in question on the subject, it's occurred to me to try and nail down one single news source for each country in South America, one per country (all homegrown and all Spanish or Portuguese language of course) that can be relied upon as good news sources, not too biased one way or the other. 

So today's the day and here's a list. Some are good (Nacion Arg, Folha Braz, Semana Col), others are ok I suppose (Tercera Chile, Razón Bol) and others best of a bad lot and just about acceptable (ABC Color Parag, Comercio Peru) but we're not after perfection here, just something that gets as close as possible to unbiased news and reporting. Here's the list:
Argentina: La Nacion
Bolivia: La Razón
Brazil: Folha de S. Paulo
Colombia: Semana
Chile: La Tercera
Ecuador: El Comercio (Ecuador)
Paraguay: ABC Color
Peru: El Comercio (Peru)
Uruguay: El Pais
Venezuela: Noticias24

This little list will move across to a separate links category as of tomorrow.

Why Southern Copper (SCCO) is a long-term hold

It's paid $10.54 in divis since the buy and hold started and will pay another juicy one soon thanks to the very good quarter it's just put in.


And for what it's worth*, it was bought way back then at just under $8 a share (split adjusted).

*not much

Nouriel Roubini brings us today's market lesson

And that lesson is: Economists are really bad at calling the market. Here's what he said back in November 2009:

Nov. 4 (Bloomberg) -- Nouriel Roubini, the economist who predicted the global economic crisis, said a forecast by investor Jim Rogers that gold will double to at least $2,000 an ounce is “utter nonsense.”
There is no inflation or “near-depression” to drive gold prices that high, Roubini said today at the Inside Commodities Conference in New York. If a severe depression came to pass, with investors buying canned goods and hiding out in log cabins, “maybe you want some gold in that scenario,” Roubini said.
“Maybe it will reach $1,100 or so but $1,500 or $2,000 is nonsense,” Roubini said. Gold rose to a record $1,098.50 today in New York on speculation that central banks and investors will purchase the metal to hedge against a declining dollar.
So Guruguy, how's that hope-y, change-y stuff workin' out for you?

Chart of the day is...

..the Bellhaven Copper & Gold (BHVv.) 12 month price chart.

8/1/11

Something to watch that's actually worth your time

After a quick passing comment left in IKN117 yesterday, reader 'CW' sent over this link and the only thing we can possibly do here is share it with the esteemed audience of IKN (that means you).



Horizon's 1993 biography of Richard Feynman "No Ordinary Genius" (the full thing, parts one and two included here) is an hour and a half of compelling viewing. I hope you enjoy it as much as I did...in fact I'm probably going to sit back now and watch it all again. Thanks CW, I owe you one.

Move over Jane Fonda, Hugo haz teh workout video

Hugo Chávez may be about to go bald on us all (chemotherapy and all that), but he's not planning on slowing down. Via a headsup from Russ Dallen over at BBO Financial, here's the LAHT on the Chávez workout video, in the shops now, phone now, satisfaction guaranteed or we'll refund your money in full, no quibbles.


CARACAS – Venezuelan state television showed Saturday new pictures of President Hugo Chavez wearing sports togs and doing exercises together with some of his officials while commenting on government issues.

The video footage, edited and set to music, shows an enthusiastic Chavez directing the physical exercises of his ministers, who lift hands and legs along with the president as he talks about the need for healthy routines.

Oh my stars, how I love South America. Anyway the report continues here

Gold

Let's say it again, just to make sure:

If 
you 
look 
very 
very 
closely 
you 
may 
be 
able 
to 
spot 
trend

Community relations in the Colombian mining sector: The Serafino Iacono method

Here's the link, here's the story:

Mineworkers’ Leader, Rafael Tobón, Gunned Down in Antioquía, Colombia 
The ICEM condemns the cowardly assassination of Colombian mineworkers’ leader Rafael Tobón Zea on 26 July. Tobón was shot three times and killed by paramilitaries near his home in the city of Segovia, Antioquía department, about 220 kilometres north of Medellín.

Rafael Tobón, 40, was a leader of the metal and mineworkers’ union Sintramienegética, where he was a founding member of that union at Frontino Gold Mines Ltd. He worked there for 15 years and was still assisting discharged miners of Frontino after the Medellín-based company liquidated and its underground mines were bought last year by Modoro Resources Ltd. of Canada and Gran Colombia Gold S.A.
He was working in a smaller gold mine in Antioquía department and organising workers there when he was killed last week. Sintramienegética had reported threats to its leaders that were believed to be tied to the contested takeover of Frontino by Modora and Gran Colombia, and the sacking of all miners.

The ICEM calls on the government of Colombia and the authorities in Segovia and Antioquía state to spare no resource in apprehending and bringing to justice the perpetrators of this heinous crime. Let there be no impunity for the miscreants of Colombia who take the lives of trade unionists in cold blood.

Chart of the day is...

...Colombian President Santos' popularity ratings:


These are six-monthly Apoyo numbers that go back into his days as Defence Minister and then to his time as a Candidate for the job, but the recent 71% is post honeymoon period, real deal. In other words, Colombians like their man and quite frankly I can't blame them.

OT: about that weekend video

I've taken several mails about the "fifty academics" video posted on site over the weekend and just to clear matters up a little, here's a mail (slightly brushed but 99.9% the same) I sent by way of reply to one of them (an old e-mail pal for whom I hold the greatest of respect, I hasten to add). You don't get to see what he wrote to me, but that's no problem.
Did i say i was an atheist? No, i said it was good brainfood.

As inferred in the text of the post, much of the time is taken up by the old "rationality" argument in different guises. This one has been batted back and forth between the two sides more times than can be mentioned in polite company and is, intellectually speaking, old hat (though fun to watch how it manifests itself in different people's brains). However, there were a couple of good and well constructed points made and i particularly liked the way the question of whether there is a "grand purpose" to it all was framed.

It made me think, and i like to think.


It made me think above all about social morality and whether religion is a necessary tool in society to keep things working and for us not to descend into anarchy (in its strictest sense) and chaos. It also made me think a helluva lot about my daughters. Finally, it made me revisit a lot of the texts and sayings attributed to Gautama Buddha (because the Bible's view is ingrained into this westerner, whether he likes it or not).

My best advice would be not to jump to conclusions about my religious leanings. I'm not going to force mine upon anyone (nor will i reveal my beliefs), equally i reject others forcing theirs on me.

The IKN Weekly, out now


IKN117 got out to subscribers eventually. And as you're asking, the answer is 15,600.