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Here's a mail received the evening of Thursday Sept 8th from reader TK. It's featured here (with permission granted) to show that it really doesn't take much effort to development the critique mindset when it comes to junior mining NRs.
Today I happened on a retraction notice to an NR by Victory Resources (VR.v), both released yesterday (No position in VR. I hadn’t even heard of them before today). Before reading the retraction, I wanted to see if I could pick out the reason for the retraction in the NR… and there it was: “economically viable…”. Twice. I then did a quick look to find a reserve or even a resource estimate. I didn’t find one.
So then I read the retraction, and sure enough “…economic viability… not supported by a current resource estimate or feasibility study.” (Now I will nitpick: they really only retracted one statement, but they said it twice). The statements were made by the president, approved by a director, and presumably vetted by IR before release.
So the most basic of errors, spotted by a dumb, little investor (me), somehow passes by at least three people who should know this stuff. But it gets better. From their latest MD&A, May 2011, released in August.“In its press the Company referenced reserve estimates for the Reforma property made by Peñoles. It was also stated that past exploration conducted by Peñoles resulted in the delineation of the “El Chapote” mineral zone which contained a reported mineral reserve. The Company’s press again made reference to a mineral reserve at the Reforma Mine; this was repeated in the Company’s press . A mineral resource was also identified as existing in the Reforma South mineral zone, and historical reserves identified at El Chapote were also reclassified as mineral resources. The ; however, the Report will be updated as and when required by NI 43-101.”and“The for the Reforma property…”Three earlier releases were retracted not long ago. I didn’t bother to look any further to see who was in charge when those releases were made and this retraction was made. This company is a serial offender.Victory Resources: easy avoid.I think I’m starting to get the hang of where not to put my money. If you don't think your blog is already overpopulated with them, it may be a good "avoid" case study for other dumb, little investors. Here's an idea: a case study booklet in resource investing avoids for dumb, little investors. Just gather your Ottotrans blog entries into one place :-)
All we are saying.
And hey, I reckon it's still worth a shot 42 years later.
|As of September 8th, 2011|
|Filing Date||Transaction Date||Insider Name||Ownership Type||Securities||Nature of transaction||# or value acquired or disposed of||Unit Price|
|Sep 07/11||Sep 06/11||Feng, Rui||Direct Ownership||Common Shares without par value||10 - Acquisition in the public market||100,000||$7.870 USD|
..the one year chart of Sunward Resources (SWD.v):
Err....he rules. IKN-translated screen grab tells you all you need to know:
disclosure: No position in SVM and never had one in the past, either. Not my geography
A lot of money in copper and gold, people. Enough to build a whole country, in fact.
Hathor Exploration (HAT : TSX : $4.19), Net Change: 0.03, % Change: 0.72%, Volume: 827,754 Cameco (CCO : TSX : $22.63), Net Change: 0.73, % Change: 3.33%, Volume: 667,495 Other interested parties.
In a report that came out after the close Tuesday, Mining Weekly Online highlighted that Hathor has signed several confidentiality agreements with companies interested in its Roughrider deposit in Saskatchewan's Athabasca. Hathor's spokesperson Tony Nunziata told Mining Weekly Online that Hathor was talking to “some very large mining conglomerates and focused entities out of Asia.” Mining Weekly Online noted that in August analysts told the mining news service that other companies including France's Areva, which already operates in the Athabasca, may be interested in bidding for Hathor. In addtion to Cameco and Areva, other potential suitors for Hathor that have been mentioned (by various media sources and/or industry followers/investors), include: Rio Tinto (RIO), BHP Billiton (BHP), Vale (VALE), Denison Mines (DML) and state-owned entities from China, South Korea (particularly KEPCO (KEP) which holds an interest in an adjacent property to Roughrider), India and Russia. On Tuesday, Hathor released another set of impressive results from its Far East Zone. It is important to note that none of the drilling completed on the Far East Zone is included in the company's current NI 43-101 compliant resource estimate for Roughrider. According to Nunziata, independent analysts believe the Far East zone could add 15 million pounds of resources “give or take” once all the drill assays have been processed. Hathor’s management highlights that Roughrider remains open both east along strike, as well as south-east up-dip from the highest-grade mineralisation found so far. Commenting on the offer by Cameco for Hathor, in an interview with International Business Times on Tuesday, Global Resource Investments Founder and Chairman Rick Rule stated, "We think this is the first of several consolidations on a worldwide basis in the uranium business. Now is the time to begin to establish positions in the uranium sector." Rule highlighted, "Uranium energy will contribute a growing share of worldwide electrical generation, not because people are less afraid of it, but simply because when they flip a switch, they want the light to go on. And without uranium, the light won't go on in many parts of the world."
They're buying Exeter Resources (XRC.to)
...the GDX and GDXJ five day showing against silver, gold and the Dow:
Well blow me down, the miners are actually winning for once.
Hope you enjoy it, sir.
I couldn't put it better myself, already.
QE3 we suspect is going to consist of the Fed coaxing banks into expanding their own balances sheets by monetizing the federal deficit. This may also involve the Fed swapping some of its assets – for example Treasury securities maturing in 1 to 5 years – for bank assets of lower quality, thereby improving the banks’ regulatory capital ratios. Then again, Standard & Poor’s is rating a subprime mortgage-backed security AAA after having downgraded U.S. debt to AA+, so who the heck knows what “quality” means anymore?
In any case, the difference is subtle but important. QE1 and QE2 had the effect of increasing the quantity of money; QE3 will focus on increasing the velocity of money. The “Q” in QE3 will likely be “qualitative” instead of “quantitative”.
Gold and copperTwo for the price of one this week, as your author’s most worried-about metals are thrown onto a ratio chart and examined. Q&A time:This time it’s different? Frankly I don’t think so and expect the recent bump in the gold/copper ratio to come back down towards the averages again (see below).So gold down or copper up? I’d suspect a bit of both in fact, with gold levelling off to at or around U$1800/oz (that would be a very but very healthy result for our gold exposed positions of course) and copper rising again towards $4.50. Those two rough targets also make the math easy and give us a 400 ratio, right where the blue 50dma sits today.Sounds like you’re less worried about copper this week? Yep that’s true. Despite the end-week weakness the U$4.12/lb close of Friday looks fine by me. If you like, compared to the commentaries over the previous two editions of the weekly I’d now say we’re halfway out the woods here, though still not fully out.
And here's the updated gold/copper ratio chart with a comment on today's action, Sept 7th:
This is what they wrote:
Press Release Source: NovaGold Resources Inc. On Wednesday September 7, 2011, 8:30 amVANCOUVER, BRITISH COLUMBIA--(Marketwire -09/07/11)- NovaGold Resources Inc. (TSX: NG.TO - News)(AMEX: NG.TO - News) The feasibility study completed on the Donlin Gold Project (formerly Donlin Creek) in 2009 is being updated to include power generation utilizing natural gas delivered to site via a proposed 500-kilometer natural gas pipeline from the Cook Inlet to the mine site. Utilizing natural gas is expected to lower costs to generate power and reduce operating risk. In connection with this update, Donlin Gold LLC, owned equally by wholly owned subsidiaries of NovaGold Resources Inc. ("NovaGold") and Barrick Gold Corporation ("Barrick"), has provided its owners with preliminary capital cost estimates of approximately US$6billion for the Project with an additional approximately US$1 billion for the natural gas pipeline. The previous capital cost estimate for the Project released in April 2009 was US$4.5 billion and did not include a natural gas pipeline. NovaGold was advised by Barrick that it will also discuss these preliminary capital costs estimates for the Donlin Gold Project at its Investor Day taking place today in Toronto, Canada."Since April 2009 the price of gold has more than doubled, yet capital costs have increased in line with the industry trends," commented Rick Van Nieuwenhuyse, NovaGold's President and CEO. "We are encouraged by these developments and look forward to receiving the updated feasibility study before the end of the year."Donlin Gold has advised its owners that this capital estimate is preliminary in nature with significant review and coordinating work remaining to be completed before the estimate is finalized for the updated feasibility study. Such work includes, among other activities, coordinating reviews between independent consultants, peer reviews and a final review by AMEC Americas Limited ("AMEC") as the feasibility study lead consultant. In addition, Barrick has initiated a full third-party review of the capital cost estimate by an independent consulting group with the results of such review to be provided to AMEC and Donlin Gold prior to the capital estimate and feasibility study estimate being finalized.It is anticipated that the feasibility study update, including a revised National Instrument 43-101 compliant technical report by AMEC will be completed before the end of 2011. The feasibility study update will include the finalized capital cost estimates, updated operating costs, reflecting lower power costs and higher diesel, labour and other costs relative to the previous study, and revised economics based on these and other reviewed technical inputs. The revised economics will be based on current long-term forecasted gold prices which have risen significantly compared to US$900 per ounce of gold that was used in the 2009 feasibility study. NovaGold will announce details and results of the updated feasibility study when available.The Donlin Gold Project is one of the world's largest undeveloped gold projects with proven and probable mineral reserves of 33.6 million ounces, measured and indicated mineral resources of 4.3 million ounces and inferred mineral resources of 4.4 million ounces.Please see the attached resource and reserve table for full disclosure. The updated feasibility study will contain revised mineral reserve and resource estimates. The Project is anticipated to be capable of producing over one million ounces of gold per year for over 25 years with significant additional exploration targets identified on an eight-kilometer mineralized trend. The Partners expect to formally initiate permitting for the Project early in 2012.The technical information contained in this press release was reviewed by Kevin Francis, SME Registered Member, VP, Resources for NovaGold and a Qualified Person as defined by NI 43-101.About NovaGold
And this is what it means:
Press Release Source: NovaGold Resources Inc. On Wednesday September 7, 2011, 8:30 amVANCOUVER, BRITISH COLUMBIA--(Marketwire -09/07/11)- NovaGold Resources Inc. (TSX: NG.TO - News)(AMEX: NG.TO - News) The feasibility study completed on the Donlin Gold Project (formerly Donlin Creek) in 2009 is being updated to include power generation utilizing natural gas delivered to site via a proposed 500-kilometer natural gas pipeline from the Cook Inlet to the mine site. Utilizing natural gas is expected to lower costs to generate power and reduce operating risk. In connection with this update, Donlin Gold LLC, owned equally by wholly owned subsidiaries of NovaGold Resources Inc. ("NovaGold") and Barrick Gold Corporation ("Barrick"), has provided its owners with preliminary capital cost estimates of approximately holy shit you gotta be joking me Rick US$6billion....you're serious, dude? for the Project with an additional approximately US$1 billion for the natural gas pipeline...oh, just another billion thrown in there, don't worry about it. The previous capital cost estimate for the Project released in April 2009 was US$4.5 billion and did not include a natural gas pipeline. NovaGold was advised by Barrick that it will also discuss these preliminary capital costs estimates for the Donlin Gold Project at its Investor Day taking place today in Toronto, Canada.
"Since April 2009 the price of gold has more than doubled, so for fuck's sake stop looking at that seven billion dollar capex number, willyaz?" commented Rick Van Nieuwenhuyse, NovaGold's President and CEO. "We are encouraged by these developments because that's what we have to say to look good in front of the mining knownothings in New York that we've strung along so far and we hope that they fall for our bullshit again this time."
Donlin Gold has advised its owners that this capital estimate is preliminary in nature with significant review and coordinating work remaining to be completed before the estimate is eventually doubled in the manifold studies that will be done before anything close to a build decision is made, perhaps around 2025. Such work includes, among other activities, hitting rocks with hammers, drinking copious amounts of alcohol in the evenings and sitting around wondering just why we're still taken seriously as a gold exploration junior, what with a combined capex of over $12Bn for our two main projects....I mean, what's 20% of the market cap of Barrick between friends anyway?
It is anticipated that the feasibility study update, including a revised National Instrument 43-101 compliant technical report by AMEC will be completed before the end of 2011. The feasibility study update will include the finalized capital cost estimates whatever that means, because we say finalized to make it sound all certain then throw in estimates to cover our asses with the reality of thing, updated operating costs, reflecting lower power costs and higher diesel, labour and other costs relative to the previous study, and revised economics based on these and other reviewed technical inputs which sounds all important, doesn't it? The revised economics will be based on current long-term forecasted gold prices which have risen significantly compared to US$900 per ounce of gold that was used in the 2009 feasibility study, but we haven't decided which number to guess at yet. NovaGold will announce details and results of the updated feasibility study when available.
The Donlin Gold Project is one of the world's largest undeveloped gold projects and will almost certainly stay that way until the cows come home with proven and probable mineral reserves of 33.6 million ounces, measured and indicated mineral resources of 4.3 million ounces and inferred mineral resources of 4.4 million ounces, all of which worth precisely nothing until they can be dug out the ground so quit it with all those in-situ valuation comparatives will you please, dumbass anal ysts? The updated feasibility study will contain revised mineral reserve and resource estimates. The Project is anticipated to be capable of producing over one million ounces of gold per year for over 25 years with significant additional exploration targets identified on an eight-kilometer mineralized trend. The Partners expect to formally initiate permitting for the Project early in 2012.The technical information contained in this press release was reviewed by Kevin Francis, SME Registered Member, VP, Resources for NovaGold and a Qualified Person as defined by NI 43-101.
Love and Kisses, Rick!
...the gold/silver ratio (GSR):
Let's leave commentary to Frankie and his dulcet tones:
Fight, fight, fight, fight, fight it with all of our might
Chances are some heavenly star-spangled night
We'll find out just as sure as we live
Somethin's gotta give
Somethin's gotta give
Somethin's gotta give
UPDATE: Holy crap, I even managed to bail just 2c from the intraday top. As the saying goes, better born lucky than rich.
NATURE OF THE ACTION
3. North American Palladium owns and operates LDL Between November 10,2010 and May 9, 2011, North American Palladium disseminated four press releases and the P&E Report about the LDI Mining Project. These five documents distorted the investment quality of the Company and the LDI Mining Project as reflected by the price of North American Palladium shares as traded on the TSX and AMEX.
4. The economic viability of the LDI mining project was based upon the P&E Report, including the ability to engineer and manage how North American Palladium would expand its mining operations from the bottom of the Roby Zone into the deeper Offset Zone while concurrently processing ore, in a cost-efficient manner, from the Roby Zone and stockpiles.
5.An error in interpreting or following the P&E Report would expose North American Palladium to additional costs for and delays with the LDI Mining Project. The Company, therefore, retained qualified experts, management and laborers to manage the LDI Mining Project. The Company expressly represented that it hired a very seasoned project manager group with significant underground development experience from some of the industry's leading contractors and had all the necessary labor manpower to continue the ongoing processing of ore from the Roby Zone and stockpiles as well as to expand into the Offset Zone.
6.During the Class Period, North American Palladium misled the Class Members about the economic viability of the LDI Mining Project, including its ability to concurrently process ore located at the lower section of the Roby Zone and stockpiles and expand its mining operations into the upper section of the Offset Zone.
7.The defendants made the Misrepresentation and failed to disclose the true facts because they knew or ought to have known the effect these facts would have on the share price and the investment quality of the Company.
8.Additionally, the defendants made the Misrepresentation because they wanted to re-elect Biggar and Berlin as directors as well as adopt a new shareholder rights plan. On May 7, 2011 they had disseminated a proxy to Class Members in this regard and understood that the information referred to in paragraph 9 below, if disclosed, would likely diminish support for the Company's recommendations.
9.After the market closed on May 9, 2011, North American Palladium disclosed for the first time that it could not meet its first quarter and projected annual production levels and cost guidance and that it had encountered delays in expanding into the Offset Zone. The three reasons cited by the Company were that during the first quarter and prior to the dissemination of the May 7 proxy: (1) there had been an unusually harsh winter resulting in delays and increase costs; (2) it lacked the necessary manpower to concurrently process ore and expand the mine into the Offset Zone, and (3) it had underestimated the skill necessary to concurrently process ore from one section and engineer the expansion of another section of the LDI. The Company also admitted that it had to revisit the P&E Report with respect to how it could engineer the mining expansion into the Offset Zone.
10.During the Class Period, North American Palladium's Misrepresentation caused its common stock to trade on the TSX at a share price as high as $7.77. Within ten (10) days after the close of the Class Period, the share price had dropped as low as $3.39. During the Class Period, KFOC, the Company's largest shareholder and former employer of director Berlin, sold 11,427,300 shares of North American Palladium valued at over $70,000,000.
September 06, 2011 10:20 ET
Compania Minera Milpo S.A.A. to Acquire Inca Pacific Resources Inc.
VANCOUVER, BRITISH COLUMBIA AND LIMA, PERU--(Marketwire - Sept. 6, 2011) -
NOT FOR DISTRIBUTION TO U.S. NEWSWIRE SERVICES OR FOR DISSEMINATION IN THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA. FAILURE TO COMPLY WITH THIS RESTRICTION MAY CONSTITUTE A VIOLATION OF U.S. SECURITIES LAWS.
Inca Pacific Resources Inc. (TSX VENTURE:IPR)(BVLAC:IPR) ("Inca Pacific") and Compañía Minera Milpo S.A.A. (BVLAC:MILPOC1) ("MILPO") announce that they have entered into a definitive arrangement agreement (the "Agreement") dated September 5, 2011 with respect to a proposed acquisition by MILPO of all of the issued and outstanding common shares of Inca Pacific (the "Transaction"). The Transaction will be structured as a statutory arrangement under the provisions of the Business Corporations Act (British Columbia).
Under the terms of the Agreement, shareholders of Inca Pacific will be entitled to receive C$0.61 in cash for each common share (each, a "Share") of Inca Pacific held (the "Consideration"). The Consideration represents a 84.8% premium to the closing price of the Shares on the TSX-V on August 31, 2011, being the last day the Shares traded on the TSX-V prior to the date hereof, and a 132.4% premium to the volume weighted average closing price of the Shares on the TSX-V over the 30 trading days ended August 31, 2011. In addition, holders of options to acquire Shares (each, an "Option") will be entitled to receive a cash payment in respect of each Option held equal to the excess, if any, of C$0.61 over the applicable exercise price of such Option. There are currently 56,647,728 Shares and 1,444,198 Options outstanding. All out-of-the-money Options will be cancelled.
Further details regarding the proposed Transaction shall be provided in a management information circular (the "Circular") which will be mailed to holders of the Shares and Options in connection with the special meeting to approve the Transaction (the "Meeting"). Inca Pacific expects to complete and mail the Circular in the coming weeks and plans to hold the Meeting in late October. The Transaction is expected to close shortly thereafter.
Inca Pacific's officers and directors and certain arm's length holders of Shares, representing in aggregate approximately 25.6% of the votes eligible to be cast by holders of Shares and Options at the Meeting, have entered into a lock-up and support agreement with MILPO whereby they have agreed to vote their Shares and Options in favour of the Transaction.
Closing of the Transaction, as contemplated by the Agreement, is subject to a number of conditions and approvals which include approval of at least 66 2/3% of the votes cast by holders of Shares and Options at the Meeting, court approval of the arrangement and the approval of all relevant regulatory authorities and third parties. Inca Pacific has agreed not to solicit or initiate any discussion regarding any other business combination or sale of material assets. Inca Pacific has also granted MILPO a right to match any superior proposal made by a third party and will pay a termination fee of C$1.25 million to MILPO if the Agreement is terminated in certain events, including if Inca Pacific recommends or approves a competing acquisition proposal or enters into an agreement with a third party with respect to any acquisition proposal.
The board of directors of Inca Pacific has unanimously approved the Transaction and will recommend the Transaction to the holders of Shares and Options in the Circular. The board of directors of Inca Pacific has received an opinion from Raymond James Ltd. that the Transaction is fair, from a financial point of view, to the holders of the Shares.
Any current or future holders of 10% or more of the outstanding Shares may be subject to Peruvian capital gains tax on a disposition of such Shares. Any such persons are advised to consult with their tax advisors.
Blake, Cassels & Graydon LLP, Hernández & Cia and Estudio Grau are acting as legal counsel to Inca Pacific. TD Securities Inc. is acting as financial advisor and McCarthy Tétrault LLP and Estudio Muñiz, Ramirez, Perez-Taiman & Olaya are acting as legal counsel to MILPO.
About Inca Pacific
"...fact is, if Switzerland is stupid enough to want a strong banking system, they're gonna have to suffer a strong currency too."
...a theoretical chart that shows what an investor or trader is looking for when something "goes parabolic".
Question: Independent to your political position, do you approve or disapprove of the form in which Sebastian Piñera is running his government?
Murder of the Priest of Marmato is a mystery
The priest of the Caldas municipality (of Colombia) was murdered last Thursday after being shot twice.
Although at first authorities in Caldas said that the motive for the murder of the priest of Marmato (Caldas), José Reinel Restrepo Idárraga was theft, this Sunday the commander of the Risaralda police force, Camilo Cabana Fonseca, said that they were studying other hypotheses.
Restrepo, 36, was killed Thursday while travelling between Guática and Belén de Umbría (Risaralda). He was shot twice in the back and was found with no documents, which is why his identification was delayed, nor with two bags he was carrying that day.
The priest had spent the past two years in Marmato where he had opposed the moving of the town, a possibility that has been considered if the mining company Gran Colombia Gold mines its open pit project.
Cabana Fonseca said that the investigation team is headed by a special group made up of members from Sajín de Risaralda and from Caldas, with the help of a fiscal delegated to the case. He also said that the process to shed light on the crime was moving forward.
The commander also indicated that in the sector where the murder of the priest took place there was no guerrilla presence, nor bands of organized criminals and that criminal activity was sporadic.
Authorities have offered a reward of 20 million pesos (U$11,200) for information leading to the perpetrators of the crime. The funeral of the priest took place yesterday in Viterbo (Caldas), his home town.
UPDATE: This Colombia TV news report on the murder gives more information on the event, explains the priest's connection to the opposition to GCM.to and also contains a copy of the Gran Colombia Gold (GCM.to) Spanish language press release.
...the US Dollar over the last five days:
"Under such circumstances, we may well be able to watch gold run higher in dollars as that currency strengthens and a full on demand for bullion in the old continent."
But WTFDIK, just lucky timing I guess.
Go here and scroll down for English translations of some of the things shouted.