- It's worth noting that Bolivia's "potential" cocaine production number is surely way higher than the actual, because Bolivia uses a lot of its coca leaves for its traditional purposes (chewing, coca tea, ceremonies etc). That's also true to some extent in Peru. However Colombia has no tradition of coca uses outside of cocaine manufacturing, so that 270 metric tonnes number is probably all dedicated to cocaine production.
- Plan Colombia has cut into cocaine production in Colombia, no doubts on that. However it's largely the crackdown against the FARC-EP and the right wing paramilitaries that's seen the progress, more than the well-documented crop spraying campaigns.
- Peru has been ignored on the world scale, with Colombia the US target of choice and then Bolivia because of its "anti-US" stance (or at least, that's the line you guys are fed up there and the truth is far more nuanced). But Peru, with its "US-Friendly" Alan García government, has been ignored. So production of cocaine has grown.
- Funny how Peru suddenly jumps up the agenda when a left wing President takes power, innit?
Best pop song ever.
Some are easier than others, conditions-wise at least. This photo taken yesterday morning.
Gold (GLD) versus silver (SLV) versus gold miners (GDX) versus junior miners (GDXJ) the last five days:
...it's very useful to be out of interwebnetpipes range for a couple of days. For example, I didn't have to worry about this:
update: latest is three dead including one police officer and buildings and windows detroyed all round the police station
update 2: Now it's a truck filled with fireworks that went up, leaving seven dead including four police officers plus a whole heap of injured. Report and video of the scene here
2011-2015 Estimated Production and Cash Operating CostsThe Company’s 2011-2015 gold production estimates are as follows:
Year Gold Production (ounces)2011 195,000 – 205,0002012 240,000 – 255,0002013 400,000 – 420,0002014 435,000 – 460,0002015 390,000 – 425,000
"Although production for the quarter ended June 30, 2011 was impacted by mill issues at Caeté, Jaguar’s management believes its year-to-date operating results, mine improvements and new development are consistent with achieving 2011 production at the lower end of the guidance range."
"Based on actual production during the first three quarters of the year, the current rate of production at the Company's mining operations and the mill issues at Paciência described above, Jaguar's management now expects 2011 full year production to be in the range of 155,000 to 163,000 ounces of gold at an average cash operating cost in the range of $835 to $845 per ounce."
In other words, as late as August 2011 JAG assured the market it would be able to run its mines at 55,000 oz or 60,000 oz Au per quarter to reach its guidance after two quarters of 40k production as seen here....
1q11 prod 41,4492q11 prod 40,2573q11 prod 40,6604q11est prod 40,000
I can just see the shabby literary man carrying a "bulging briefcase" rushing from one campus to another, one lecture club to another, nodding confirmation with his hosts that he is right, hurrying to the next town ... a whole gray career of proving himself to others, to as many as can hear him, that he was right ... till finally people say: "Here comes the self-prover again, O dear ... bring out the papers and the canapes." This my friend is what I will become if I accept all lecture offers, TV appearances, radio interviews and start arranging with reviewers and critics who want information and my books through me, a great long lifetime in a briefcase proving my work and my work itself stopped dead at the level where I took to proving myself. So, I say, life is too sweet to waste on self propaganda, I quit self promotion, I enter my page.
"Amerix is planning an aggressive campaign of follow up geochemical sampling of all the potential gold targets on the Limão property over the upcoming months."
Well, I LOL'd. Ain't nothin' like moving a project on quickly, is there guys?
*People's Front of Judea, not the splitters at the JPF
Now you have a nice day, wontcha?
1) He's the President of Golden Star (GSC.to) (GSS)
2) He's the CEO of Golden Star
3) He's a bullshitter
Let's see what Mair was quoted as saying in this morning's production report NR:
"...third quarter gold production at Bogoso/Prestea was slightly higher than we had forecast. Wassa/HBB's gold production was slightly below expectation in the third quarter due to lower than expected mill availability and ore handling issues. On a consolidated basis, we achieved third quarter gold production guidance."
Waddya say about that, Owly?
This is what they wrote:
Press Release Source: Takara Resources Inc. On Monday October 17, 2011, 12:18 pm EDTTORONTO, ONTARIO--(Marketwire -10/17/11)- Takara Resources Inc. ("Takara" or the "Company") (TSX-V: TKK.V - News) announces that over the past few months the Company has been working on data compilation of the Arakaka Gold Project, NW Guyana, South America, as well as following up on targets identified by the prior operators, which includes improving the access and infrastructure in furtherance of an extensive sampling, trenching and diamond drilling campaign. The area of the Arakaka Gold property has several historical open pits that have been mined since the early 1900's, and the results from the previous trenching, sampling and drill programs were very encouraging and require further exploration.
Takara commenced an extensive prospecting and geochemical survey program on the underexplored southwest and southeast parts of the Arakaka Gold Project. The program includes soil sampling, "ridge and spur" sampling and trenching. The geochemical survey is combined with reconnaissance mapping in order to evaluate geochemical anomalies and outline targets for further exploration. The main objective is to prepare for an extensive diamond drill program on the underexplored Macaw Gold trend, which will help the Company to evaluate the extent and degree of the gold mineralization and the exploration and mining potential of the Property. Macaw trend is well known for widely spread surface coarse grained gold and multiple artisanal workings. Soil samples have been taken at 50 meter intervals along survey lines and both the grab and soil samples are sent for preparation to Acme Analytical Laboratories Ltd. in Georgetown, Guyana. The samples are analyzed for fire assay and ICP analyses in Acme Analytical Labs in Santiago, Chile. The ACME analytical facilities in Santiago (Chile) and Vancouver (Canada), and the preparation facility in Georgetown (Guyana) are commercial geochemical analysis and assaying labs accredited under ISO 9001 certification.
The second area for a follow up is in the heart of the Arakaka Trend, in the vicinity of the Arakaka village. Despite the presence of the intensive alluvial mining in the area, the project remains largely underexplored. The area is characterized by gold bearing quartz-carbonate veins and veinlets with sulphide mineralization and disseminated gold mineralization in alteration zones, associated with faults and fold structures. Gold mineralization intersected by the previous drilling is associated with intense quartz veining and related alteration in the vicinity of a regional thrust fault, within a deformed metasedimentary package. The previous operator has identified two separate, high-grade quartz veins, both with coarse grained visible gold.
B-22 and B-23 Update
Title to two of the Company's properties, B-22 and B-23, within the Arakaka Gold Project is being challenged by a third party company. Takara has taken initial legal action in an effort to resolve the matter in its favour, and it intends to, where required, vigorously defend its position in this regard. Updates will be provided as additional information becomes available.
And this is what it means:
dyodd, dudettes and dudes
UPDATE: I'm sorry, did I say 40% down? Seems I meant 43.8% down (according to today's intraday action at least).
So there you go.
New Gold Forecasts: Our new gold estimates are as follows: US$1,576/oz (from US$1,575/oz) in 2011; US$1,750/oz (from US$1,650/oz) in 2012; US$1,650/oz (from US$1,500/oz) in 2013; and US$1,500/oz long term (2014 and beyond), from US$1,400/oz in 2014, US$1,300/oz in 2015, US$1,200/oz in 2016 and US$1,100 long term (2017 and beyond). Our peak gold price forecast remains unchanged at US$1,750/oz Au.
New Silver Forecasts: Our new silver estimates are as follows: US$35/oz (from US$39/oz) in 2011; US$40/oz (from US$41/oz) in 2012; US$33/oz (from US$35/oz) in 2013; and US$27.50/oz long-term (2014 and beyond), from US$31/oz in 2014; US$27/oz in 2015; US$24/oz in 2016; and US$22/oz long-term. Our peak silver price forecast has dropped to US$40/oz from US$45/oz previously.
This affects their covered miners of course and here's that little list of fun.
Timmins Gold Corp. (TMM : TSX-V): Show me the recovery; downgrading to SELL from Hold, with a revised target price of C$2.20 (from C$2.60)Goldgroup Mining Inc. (GGA : TSX): Revised gold price deck; maintaining SPECULATIVE BUY rating with a revised target price of C$3.00 (from C$2.80)Alexco Resource Corp. (AXR : TSX): Revising peak silver forecast to US$40/oz, from US$45/oz; maintaining SPECULATIVE BUY rating with a revised target price of C$9.75 (from C$12.25)Bear Creek Mining Corp. (BCM : TSX-V): Revising peak silver forecast to US$40/oz, from US$45/oz; maintaining SPECULATIVE BUY rating with a revised target price of C$7.00 (from C$8.50)Canaco Resources Inc. (CAN : TSX-V): Revised gold price deck; maintaining SPECULATIVE BUY rating with a revised target price of C$6.00 (from C$7.50)East Asia Minerals Corp. (EAS : TSX-V): Unknown project timeline, higher risk aversion; maintaining HOLD but reducing target to C$1.75 from C$2.80Exeter Resource Corp. (XRC : TSX): Sector risk adjustments impact valuation; reiterate SPECULATIVE BUY but lowering target to C$9.35 from C$11.50Fortuna Silver Mines Inc. (FVI : TSX): Revising peak silver forecast to US$40/oz, from US$45/oz; maintaining SPECULATIVE BUY rating with a revised target price of C$8.25 (from C$9.00)Golden Minerals Company (AUM : TSX): Revising peak silver forecast to US$40/oz, from US$45/oz; maintaining SPECULATIVE BUY rating with a revised target price of C$22.75 (from C$23.50)MAG Silver Corp. (MAG : TSX): Revising peak silver forecast to US$40/oz, from US$45/oz; maintaining SPECULATIVE BUY rating with a revised target price of C$16.75 (from C$18.50)North Country Gold Corp. (NCG : TSX-V): Market risk aversion impacts valuation; maintain SPECULATIVE BUY but reducing target to C$2.20 from C$2.70Sandstorm Gold Ltd. (SSL : TSX-V): Revised gold price deck; maintaining SPECULATIVE BUY rating with a revised target price of C$1.70 (from C$1.90)SilverCrest Mines Inc. (SVL : TSX-V): Revising peak silver forecast to US$40/oz, from US$45/oz; maintaining SPECULATIVE BUY rating with a revised target price of C$3.15 (from C$4.00)Metals and Mining -- Precious Metals and Minerals: Record global liquidity should sustain robust precious metal prices; raising long-term gold/silver price forecasts to $1,500/$27.50 (from $1,100/$22)Alamos Gold Inc. (AGI : TSX): Low cost production growth expected to continue; transferring coverage with a revised BUY rating and C$22.50 target priceLa Mancha Resources Inc. (LMA : TSX): Revised gold price deck; growth, prospectivity & strong balance sheet; if only there was some liquidity! Maintain SPEC BUY and C$3.85 targetMinefinders Corporation Ltd. (MFN : AMEX): Banking on continued operational momentum and execution of growth plans; transferring coverage with a revised BUY rating and US$20.00 target price
...copper, hourly candles.
...got me playing Manu Chao this morning. And this track is just wonderful.
Classical Insights Afternoon Bullet Points October 16, 2011I went to Zuccotti Park yesterday and talked with about 20 of the Occupy Wall Street protesters. Everyone was polite and happy to chat. I’d say the breakdown between good and bad ideas was a little better than 50/50. Yet the protestors’ core notion -- that average Americans are being screwed by the powers that be -- has plenty of merit. On specific points, the Occupy Wall Street people and the Tea Partiers actually have a fair amount in common.Here are some of the individual protestors’ ideas:
- Replace the existing 535-man congress with direct democracy -- thereby cutting down on corruption. The guy proposing this was in his 20s and carried a sign reading “Waterboard Wall Street.” He was quite eloquent, arguing that today we have the technology to allow all Americans to vote on major decisions, so why not do it? It’s a reasonable point. In fact, author Eric Morse made a similar argument in his recent book Juggernaut. Morse recommends we move to a 10,000-man congress, thereby returning us to the original, 1790s-era ratio of 30,000 citizens per congressperson. This approach would cut down on corruption because 30,000 people are too many to bribe.
- “Weak Messianism.” I chatted for a while with a scholarly looking fellow in his late 20s at a table with a couple of books by philosopher Walter Benjamin. The concept behind weak messianism is that small powerless movements can have an inordinately large impact because they embody the sins and problems of the recent past, bringing them into the open and helping to get them resolved. Apparently, this notion has roots in Eastern Orthodox philosophy. “Are there dirty hippies here? Yes,” said the fellow at the table. “Are there people doing drugs here? Yes. But this is all part of the process. It’s a mistake to try to define the goals of the movement too quickly.” The process of airing all the grievances and concerns is itself useful, he said. “The protest has actually morphed several times since it started a few weeks ago.”
- Stop the foreign wars and use those resources here at home. This was a big theme. Many protestors are very upset that we’re spending hundreds of billions of dollars fighting wars all over the world when our own economy is weak and jobs are hard to find. I was handed a flyer from an outfit called “Veterans for Peace” which contained several noteworthy statistics:
- The U.S. military budget is 7x that of China ;
- New Yorkers have paid $113 billion for the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq over the past 10 years. For that same money, 19 million students could get scholarships to go to college for one year;
- $1 billion spent on the military creates 8,500 jobs, whereas $1 billion in tax cuts generates 10,800 jobs. (Not sure about that point but it’s interesting they supplied it.)
- End the Fed. A saw one big sign making the case that the Federal Reserve is a non-governmental entity whose primary goal is to empower and enrich bankers, not individuals. It’s a fair point. As G. Edward Griffin wrote in The Creature from Jekyll Island, our current banking system is designed to implode periodically – and for the losses to be socialized when it does. The protesters are rightfully mad about this, though as a practical matter most probably don’t understand the nuts and bolts of it. They simply see that Wall Street banks blew up, taxpayers bailed them out, nobody went to jail, and the bigwigs made millions of dollars. It doesn’t seem right to them. On this issue the protests (as well as the Tea Party protests) should have some impact. We can expect some combination of higher capital requirements and lower tolerance for high-risk trading activities by banks going forward.
- “Aggregate demand is too weak.” This was written on a sign carried by a fellow wearing an “MMT” baseball cap. In this case, MMT stands for Modern Monetary Theory. The protester argued that the government needs to increase spending drastically to boost the economy. I disagreed with him on that point, proposing that a combination of tax cuts and nominal GDP targeting via quantitative easing would make more sense. He disagreed and we argued the point for a while. There was another economist type standing next to him (also an MMT-er), who agreed that tax cuts would be an acceptable way to boost aggregate demand.
- College is way overpriced and the education is lousy. One of the most interesting conversations I had was with a chunky 22-year-old from Vermont who is $250,000 in debt yet still doesn’t have his bachelor’s degree. He was carrying a sign that read, “Where’s our Robin Hood?” He has attended Hofstra, University of Vermont and (currently) Ramapo College in New Jersey . His degree is costing him about $50,000 per year and he expects to need 5 years to graduate. After graduation he wants to get a master’s degree, at which point he expects to be $500,000 in debt. He is studying business and his goal is to work in the music business for a few years and then start a record company.“Nobody will take you seriously if you don’t have a college degree,” he explained. “You can’t get a job, and a bank won’t give you a business start-up loan.” He said he doesn’t think any of the schools he’s attended has given him a good education. “I’m sitting in computing classes and they’re teaching us how to use Excel and Powerpoint – things I learned when I was 16. I’m sitting there thinking that I’m paying thousands of dollars for this.” He said his student loans carry a 7% interest rate.Another guy (with a clearly skeptical bent) joined the conversation and asked, “So why don’t you just go to a cheaper school?” The Vermonter responded that he wanted to get out of Vermont and see new things.
- Workers of the World Unite! I chatted with a full-on socialist who argued for nationalization of banks and industries. Such a move would free workers from mind-numbing jobs -- while bringing an end to the capitalist practice of skimming the excess value created by laborers. I argued that a successful business can’t function on labor alone, and that without a visionary running the business labor won’t create any excess value at all. He rejected this notion, arguing that people are motivated to work and create by non-monetary impulses. The engineers at Apple Computer, for instance, would be inspired to do their work even without the profit motive.Socialists or communists were manning four tables in various parts of the park. Nearly all were older guys. I don’t think they’ll get much traction with the young protestors. For instance, the socialist I talked to cited steel-mill work as an example of a particularly mind-deadening task. Yet most steel mill jobs have been computerized for decades and some are fairly high tech at this point. Smart young people just aren’t going to buy into these old socialists’ vision. The weakness of their sales pitch is magnified by the fact that much of America ’s wealth is now intellectual rather than physical -- and intellectual property can’t be effectively nationalized in the first place.
- There’s another issue that rankles down here: CEOs making millions while they downsize their labor forces and move factories to China . That just doesn’t strike people as right. In some cosmic way they have a point, which goes back to the whole notion that man, for most of his history, lived in egalitarian hunter-gatherer tribes. As such, when a few people get super-rich by firing others, it just doesn’t sit well. That’s an emotionally live issue and one that’s not going away.
- Who are the 1% that these protestors are so mad at? My sense is that the 1% does not refer to successful people generally, but rather to those few who get rich via collusion between government and business. For instance, defense contractors greasing palms of congressmen would fall into this category, as would bankers who receive billions in bailouts. I’m reminded here of Amity Schlaes’ concept of “the Forgotten Man,” which dates back to the 1930s: When A makes a deal with B, the loser is very often C, who is not even at the table. The Occupy Wall Street people are “C”s to a man. They know this, they are not happy about it – and they have a point. The Tea Partiers also are mostly “Cs,” so I don’t think it’s a coincidence that I saw some Ron Paul signs at Zuccotti Park .
- I saw a baby wearing a T-shirt that read, “Still waiting for the Great Leap Forward.” I said to the mother, “Um, I’m not sure if you know this, but the Great Leap Forward was a socialist experiment in China in the 1950s that went horribly wrong and killed millions of people.” She said she didn’t know that and had actually gotten the phrase from a Billy Bragg song. A few others nearby also were wearing T-shirts with slogans on them. They’d never heard of China ’s Great Leap Forward, either, and all said they would look it up on Wikipedia when they got home.
- End hydraulic fracturing. There were several people around the park with signs calling for an end to fracking, arguing that it poisons groundwater. I am open to convincing either way on this one. I’ve read articles suggesting both sides have a case.
- A number of people were carrying signs saying “Tax the Rich” or some variant thereof. I didn’t strike up conversations with any of them, on the assumption they wouldn’t have much interesting to say. Still, “Tax the Rich,” is clearly a popular theme now, even among many Republican voters. No wonder Mitt Romney is not proposing cuts to income-tax rates for higher-income Americans.
- Big groups of people were engaged in drum-pounding, chanting, and call-and-response sessions at opposite ends of the park. After I left, I realized that I’d simply blotted them out, probably on the unconscious assumption they were all idiots. Later on, though, it occurred to me that these people likely were the real occupiers – i.e. the ones sleeping out in the park every night. It also occurred to me that many of the people I talked to probably were just down there during the days.Later Saturday evening, some of the occupiers moved to Times Square and created a real mess. I was walking down 7th Avenue trying to catch a train at Penn Station when the cops shut down a couple of blocks. That cost me 10 minutes of extra walking and I almost missed my train. My empathy for the protestors declined substantially at that point. When protests start inconveniencing regular people just trying to walk down the street, you’re into Third World territory. The cops were everywhere around Times Square but just focused on directing traffic and channeling the people flow.Feel free to forward this as there are no investment themes contained.
Mike ChurchillBullets are archived at www.churchillresearch.com .
update: nice to see people long the scam stock st elias mines coming over to visit.