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11/19/11

Doña Tota, QEPD

Maradona's mother passed away today. Lo siento, Diego.

Full story here

11/18/11

The Friday OT: ZZ Top; La Grange

Just a lil ol blues band from Texas, or so they say:




The awesomeness of ZZ Top on display and Gibbons has given the rock world more riffs and licks than most apparently famous players could ever dream about. This is ZZ Top, this is what you get when you strap top guitar to top bass to top percussion and mix for 40 years.  We adore.

Catching up with Great Panther Silver (GPR.to) (GPL)

Oh yeah, we're doing it number-coded today:

1) The time when CEO Robert Archer inside sold shyteloads of his own shares of Great Panther (GPR.to (GPL)...lucky guy, isn't he????????????
2) Reality set in
3) The time when GPR.to hired arch lying scumball bullshitter Thom Calandra and his Torrey Hills Capital pump and dump outfit to promo GPR to the naive and unwitting. That asshole Calandra even tried to suggest that GPR was an M&A target...how freakin' desperate can you get, you twisting son of a bitch?
4) (and this is my favourite bit) When GPR's 3q11 numbers were pumped as great stuff by the very same spinmeisters and got a whole bunch of new sheep into the stock at 2.8 and above.
5) Today.

Any further questions? Or perhaps you'd like more about the bullying legal tactics that company Chair Kaare Foy has been using to try and shut IKN up. More details on that forthcoming....

ps: Fortuna Silver's (FVI.to) (FSM) performance is included in the above chart to show what serious silver mining companies can do

MF Global, KPMG, Charles Dickens and a proxy-Ottotrans

Your author receives the following from his own little deep-ish throat and also receives the translation you can all enjoy below (hint, start with the translation)

mail received:
From: MFGNotify [mailto:MFGNotify@mfglobal.com]
Sent: Friday, November 18, 2011 12:32 PM
Subject: Client update


Please find a client update enclosed below.  Please refer any questions to mfglobalenquiries@kpmg.co.uk
Dear Sirs
MF GLOBAL UK Limited (IN SPECIAL ADMINISTRATION) (“MFG UK”)
As you are aware, Richard Fleming, Richard Heis and Mike Pink were appointed as joint special administrators of MFG UK on 31 October 2011.
The special administrators have received a large volume of queries from clients concerning the current position of MFG UK and the return of client money. We have noted and acknowledge the difficulties and frustrations being experienced by clients and we are devoting a significant amount of our own resources and MFG UK resources which have been retained (including the client money team) towards an early resolution to these matters.
We have set out below answers to a number of frequently asked questions, some of which will affect you directly. With respect to your own individual circumstances, we are endeavouring to provide you with full information of your position as recorded by MFG UK as soon as is practicable.
MFG UK is a large investment firm which has thousands of clients and dealt with millions of transactions at any one time. The scale and complexity of the circumstances facing the special administrators are substantial and we are working with staff at MFG UK to understand each client’s position with MFG UK as soon as possible. Where relevant, this includes also assistance with the transfer of open trades/positions to another broker and/or reconciling trades/positions where they are being or have been closed down.
As at the date of appointment of the special administrators, there were approximately 1.6 million open positions transacted through a multitude of exchanges and markets located in over thirty jurisdictions.  The substantial majority of open positions have now either been liquidated or have been transferred to other brokers.
The main reason for the delay is that (as of today’s date), there remains a very large number of accounting entries to be made to bring the books and records of MFG UK up to date as at 31 October 2011 and also to show the effects of the defaults when the necessary information is received by MFG UK.  Previously MFG UK’s systems were able to process much of this automatically through electronic links to exchanges and banks; however, as a result of terminations and defaults by the exchanges and clearing houses across the markets, that were triggered following the appointment of special administrators, a significant amount now needs to be handled manually.  This is time-consuming. 
What is happening with open trades/positions with MFG UK that I may have?
Where your trade/position has been transferred to another broker we will notify you as soon as possible, so that you can take appropriate action. These notifications are being communicated through MFG UK’s normal communication channels, and we are writing to each affected customer as soon as we can.
We are not yet able to provide closing information to those clients who have had their trades/positions closed for the reasons described above. We are working to obtain the information needed to provide clients with more accurate final pricing and net position information and will provide that information as soon as practicable.
Statement information since the special administrators’ appointment
Certain trade and/or position, price and cash balance data provided to clients since 31 October 2011 is not necessarily reliable (for example because information was not up to date or complete at that time) and you should not rely on it.  More accurate closing prices and statements of final trades and/or positions will be sent to clients in due course.
What is the position where I requested my account be closed and funds be remitted to me prior to the special administrators’ appointment?
It is clear that a large number of requests to close accounts and transfer funds made in the days preceding Monday 31 October 2011 were received by MFG UK but not completed. This may include circumstances where funds have not been paid to clients following such requests. Notwithstanding that these closure requests were made prior to the special administrators’ appointment, these accounts now fall to be dealt with under the special administration process.
At this point the special administrators are unable to action requests for withdrawals from client accounts, which are now subject to the formal procedures for dealing with such client assets set out in the special administration rules and the FSA’s Client Money Distribution Rules.
My funds were held in a segregated ‘client money’ account. Why can’t they be released immediately?
Notwithstanding their segregated status, these accounts require to be first reconciled and dealt with as part of the special administration process and in accordance with the FSA’s Client Money Distribution Rules. This process involves:
·       the identification of client money as distinguished from other MFG UK monies;
·       the transfer of client money into client money accounts under the control of the special administrators;
·       the determination of entitlements to client money; and
·       the efficient return of client money based on those entitlements.
There are also important legal decisions affecting the treatment of client money which are still being litigated through the English courts. Some of these issues may impact the correct legal treatment of client money at MFG UK and it may be necessary to wait until the Supreme Court rules on these matters (in the case of Lehman Brothers International (Europe)), which is expected in the first half of 2012.
How long will the process to return client monies take?
We and the MFG UK staff are actively working to reconcile holdings and accounts in order to enable client money to be released as soon as practicable, which is one of our formal objectives in the special administration process. Each client trade/position must be recorded in MFG UK’s systems and reconciled with the records kept by the market or exchange on which the trade was transacted. In some cases, the reconciliation must also involve other brokers and agents through which the business was placed. The early distribution of client money is high priority to the special administrators and the reconciliation process is a prerequisite before client money supporting client trades/positions can be released to accounts controlled by the special administrators.
Our investigations to date (which remain ongoing) indicate that some client funds were held at institutions outside the MF Global group. For example, this will include funds controlled by exchanges at which business is or was transacted by clients, which will be released after all open trades/positions are closed and reconciled. We are actively working to secure the release of these funds from these institutions, from which distributions to clients can be made. As of today’s date, although the majority of these funds still remain to be collected, good progress is being made to accelerate this process.
The ultimate return of client money to clients will be dependent on the special administrators establishing the quantum of the claims against funds held in designated client money accounts (“the segregated client money pool”) and the non-segregated monies.  Upon the failure of a regulated firm, under the FSA’s Client Money Distribution Rules (CASS 7A) all segregated client monies must be ‘pooled’ together and distributed to clients in accordance with those rules (please refer to the website detailed below for further information). Arrangements for distributions to clients will not be finalised until all client risk positions have been liquidated or transferred and all claims against have been validated; however, we are discussing with the FSA and other bodies whether it would be feasible to make an interim distribution before all claims are finalised, but that is still likely to be some time away.
I have provided security or collateral (segregated ‘client assets’) to MFG UK. Why can’t they be returned immediately?
We and the MFG UK staff are actively working to reconcile holdings and accounts in order to enable segregated client assets to be returned as soon as practicable, which, again, is one of our formal objectives in the special administration process.

The return of a client‘s assets will not be finalised until the associated client risk positions have been liquidated or transferred and claims have been validated. Client assets are not subject to the ‘pooling’ arrangements which apply to client money. Therefore, it is possible that client assets may be returned before the distribution of client money, possibly by means of setting a bar date to coordinate the submission of claims.
When might distributions be made?
Returning client assets and paying distributions of client money to creditors is and will remain a key focus of the special administrators. Indeed these aims are enshrined in the special administration objectives.
However, the identification, collection and reconciliation of client money, client assets and MFG UK’s assets is a complex process. While this work is underway, the special administrators will develop their strategy for the best way to return client assets and make distributions, which may include interim distributions depending on the circumstances for clients.
Further information to assist clients is available on the website http://www.kpmg.co.uk/mfglobaluk, including an explanation of the status of client money and client assets which have been segregated from other funds of MFG UK, answers to other frequently asked questions and a summary of the position regarding MFG UK generally.
Yours faithfully
R Heis
Joint special administrator
MF Global UK Limited in special administration

Proxy-Ottotrans (not written by, but 100% endorsed by your author: thanks due to he knows who)

“Hi there Yanks, we’ve been getting a lot of questions about the pile of shite we’re dealing with called MF Global.  All of the questions though variously worded,  amount to:  “when are we going to get our fucking money”.  Well, have you ever read Dickens?  No? Bleak House would be a good one for you.  Essentially, in Bleak House, the heir to a vast fortune waits while the good courts of Chancery “administer” the estate to make sure all the Estate’s assets are inventoried, located, valued, assessed and, where appropriate, sold, claims assessed and settled etcetera etcetera.  Then and only then can the estate be distributed to the heirs.  Unfortunately, in Bleak House, the administrators (that would be us in the MFG shitepile) have to get paid and, well, they’re not cheap;  they’re thorough, yes very thorough, but they are decidedly not cheap, and well, the assets of the estate barely cover the administrative costs and the heir received bugger all.
Basically, in MFG, you are the heir.  Cheers.” 

dyodd, dude

Drunkeynesian has the quote of the day

For those who don't know, Drunkeynesian is the best Brazil economics blog on the planet, so you should have it on your RSS by now. Today Drunkey has this as a quote of the day, from Germany's Foreign Minister Guido Westerwelle. 

"Some argue the euro can be saved only at the price of sacrificing monetary stability. This would be a momentous mistake. Putting the European Central Bank’s printing presses to work might at best bring some short-term relief. But it would have dire consequences, both raising inflation and dissipating vitally important incentives for reform. In the end we would end up with a depreciated currency and an even more destabilised eurozone. The ECB’s independence and firm commitment to price stability are of paramount importance to Europe’s economy."

That translates as, "As we the Germans run this shop, we invited all these pissant little States into the Eurozone during the last 10 years, even though it's now patently obvious that they weren't even close to being ready for the change, in order to sell them massive amounts of Bosch whitegoods and BMWs and Mercedes and Bayer aspirins. Now that it's gone tits up, you honestly think that WE, the Germans, are going to take our portion of the blame and go down with this ship?"

Do you care about Chinese copper demand?

And soybeans? And iron ore? If so, you should read the Reuters special PDF report on China's October for all thing related, out today. It includes reports with the following titles:
  • China Oct copper imports shine, iron ore suffers
  • China October imports surge as exports wilt
  • China copper imports strong but bulls beware!: Andy Home
  • China crude imports may finally head higher: Clyde Russell
  • China Oct copper imports rise 0.8 pct on month
  • China Oct soy imports fell to 7-month low at 3.81 mln T-Customs
  • Robust China data bodes well for commodities: Clyde Russell

And your loving and caring IKN supplies the direct link to the PDF, right here. Enjoy

Chart of the day is...

...the approximate number of calories eaten per day by your author in the last two weeks, including estimates for today, Friday November 18th:

Yes, I am eating lunch in my favourite restaurant today*. The secret of successful weight loss (something I've done quite a lot of this year) includes a good splurge when you hit a target. It also includes broccoli, but that's on the menu for tomorrow, not today.

¡Buen provecho!

*for the minor handful of readers who know which one it is, come along! I'm buying.

11/17/11

What mining sector bigwigs in Peru think of Humala

From this report in El Comercio today:

Roque Benavides: "President Humala is demonstrating that he believes in investment"

The president of Buenaventura (BVN) said that Yanacocha will listen to suggestions to improve the Conga project and said that in Peru "there exists the best mining in the world."

Thursday, 17 November 2011, 2:17pm

The president of the Buenaventura (BVN) Mining company, Roque Benavides, said that President Ollanta Humala "is demonstrating that he wants to run a good government" and that "he believes in both national and foreign investment". These declarations come after those of President Humala yesterday evening when he assured those present that his government "is not anti-mining".

Benavides also referred to the environmental impact study and permits to move forward the Conga project and on this matter approved that the mandatory considers it an important operation. "...this demonstrates maturity and we are not going to disappoint him", he added in his declarations to Willax TV.

They will listen to suggestions
Benavides also said that the Yanacocha mining company is open to hearing suggestions in order to improve the aforementioned project and will comply with the law and care of the environment. "And of course we will generate more water supply than we'll use", he said.

He also said that, "Many people do not understand that modern mining methods are run with technologies applied for the care of the environment and respect to communities."

"In Peru there is the best type of mining that exists in the world, the cleanest and the most responsible", added Benavides.

Benavides made these declarations during his participation in the presentation ceremony of the University of Engineering and Technology (UTEC), a project run jointly by the companies Hochschild, Credicorp, Buenaventura and Ferreyros

Just for the record

I've been buying juniors, both yesterday and today (subbers; yes, I added more today of the same one I bought yesterday as per the Flash update). Mostly junior gold producers exposure added, plus a little silver explorer exposure and a little copper explorer exposure too.

It's nice when such an obvious buying day plops into your lap.

Is this the mining NR of the year?

I'm thinking of running an end-of-year awards ceremony for the biggest amount of balderdash found in one single mining company NR during 2011. This one must be up there in the top ten, as it includes plenty of gems such as this:

"Cameco believes that the Roughrider deposit cannot be economically developed as a standalone operation with its own mining and milling facilities and related infrastructure. It is only due to Cameco's existing infrastructure and obvious synergies in the region that we are currently able to justify making this attractive offer."

That "attractive offer" on the day of the above NR, October 17th, was $3.75. This can be put into context thanks to today's NR from Hathor (HAT.to):
Hathor Exploration Limited ("Hathor") announces that Rio Tinto plc. (LSE: RIO.L - News)(ASX: RIO.L - News)(NYSE: RIO.L - News), through an indirect wholly-owned Canadian subsidiary ("Rio Tinto"), has increased its all-cash offer to acquire all of the outstanding common shares of Hathor to $4.70 per share (the "Increased Rio Offer"). All other terms of the offer will remain the same as those described in the Rio Tinto offer and the takeover bid circular dated October 25, 2011. Rio Tinto's increased offer values Hathor at approximately C$654 million on a fully-diluted basis and represents a premium to Cameco Corporation's unsolicited revised offer of C$4.50 per common share made on November 14, 2011 (the "Cameco Offer").
Hathor's board of directors, after receiving the recommendation of its special committee and the oral opinion of its financial advisor as to the fairness, from a financial standpoint, of the Increased Rio Offer, has unanimously determined that the Increased Rio Offer is in the best interests of Hathor's shareholders and reaffirms its support of Rio Tinto's increased offer and unanimously recommends that Hathor shareholders accept and tender their common shares to the Increased Rio Offer and reject the Cameco Offer.

dyodd and remember, CEOs are not your friends

More on Peru's metals mining stagnation

After this post Tuesday, mails received (eg from reader PR, from reader WB from reader DX and I adore your last name, sir) asked whether your humble scribe's assertion that Peru's metal production numbers are in fact dropping. So to illustrate, here are the charts for the top eight metals produced in the country, in order of rough importance too. As a baseline we use January 2008 (gives us nearly four years, so trends are apparent) and the all production figures are monthly ones, as published by Peru's Ministry of Energy and Mining

Starting with copper, as this is the most important product exported by Peru, accounting as it does for around 25% of all exports (note, not just metals exports but ALL exports, avocados, textiles, fishmeal, asparagus, mangoes etc all included). Here the trend is flat-to-slightly-down:

Next is gold, the other major Peru export (most goes to Switzerland, surprise surprise) that accounts for 20% of everything sold by Peru to the world in dollar terms. The trend is slightly inclining lower:

Number three is zinc and there ain't no doubt about this one:

Number four metal export from Peru is silver (note: silver exports are dwarfed in dollar value size by gold, this really is a minor component) and the trend is no friend here, either:

Number five is lead, which has seen a bit of a rebound this year but went through a slump in previous years:

Number six is iron ore and the 100% of the production here comes from Peru's only operational iron ore mine, that of Shougang in Marcona. This is the only reall growth story on the list but the absolute size of exports is very minor compared again to the big ones, copper and gold:

Number seven is tin and here again Peru is a one trick pony, with minsur's San Rafael mine the only tin mine in the country. Trend? Yup, it's down:

Number eight and our last metal (because things get very very minor after this one) is molybdenum, which is a by-product of the big copper mines. we've seen an upwards trend here, but again the absolute dollar values we're talking about are small:

So overall, the minor product of iron ore and moly have seen production growth. Others are either flat at best or dropping, with some drops really quite steep. However, all this stagnation has been neatly and conveniently covered up by the rising trends in world metals prices, especially those of copper and gold. If those see any sort of prolonged slump, Peru's balance of payments (and therefore eventually its currency) will clearly come under pressure. Peru isn't "armour plated" against a world economic slump. Tin plated perhaps, but nothing that could stand prolonged attacks by dangerous weapons.

Update: By sheer coincidence, today's also the day Peru's Mining Ministry tells the world that mining exports are up 32.9% in the first nine months of 2011, compared to the same period in 2010. I rest my case, m'lud.

I know for a fact there are still a few stupid people out there that think Ollanta Humala's government is left wing

This week in Peru macro politics:

1) The Humala government welcomes in The USA to Peru in a bilateral agreement to help fight the rise in narcotrafficking.

2) The Humala government announces plans to privatize State run oil company Petroperú and float 20% of shares on the local stock market.
x
3) The Humala government, with the Prez himself as spokesman, confirms its support for the Minas Conga gold mining project (owned by Yanacocha, NEM, BVN et al) and rails against the local "radicals" currently protesting in the region.

Welcome To The New Peru! (just the same as the old Peru)

Chart of the day is...

....gold bullion (using GLD proxy), silver bullion (using SLV proxy), gold miners (GDX) and junior miners (GDXJ), tracked over the last 12 months:
Juniors have had the rough end of the stick, no? And interesting to note how silver now thinks its gold after that blow-off run earlier in the year.

11/16/11

Lula does chemo

When President Fernando Lugo of Paraguay went thru his chemotherapy and lost his hair the difference wasn't that great. And recent chemo patient Hugo Chávez hasn't really changed in aspect now he's hairless.

But Lula da Silva, ex-Pres of Brazil...wow, that's a serious image difference.


I'd walk right past him in the street. Anyway, as with the others, get well soon Lula. Photo from here

What happens next at Jaguar Mining (JAG) (JAG.to)?


Over at the earlier post today, along with its three updates, we tracked the story of the supposed, alleged, apparent bid by China's Shandong for Jaguar Mining (JAG) (JAG.to). Now that JAG has officially acknowledged receipt of an offer (though doesn't say from whom or what kind of price) and has also implied between the lines that the offer they got wasn't enough (all that "no further than exploratory" malarkey), what happens now is simple. It's put up or shut up time at Shandong. Either 
a) Shandong goes public and hostile and puts its bid on the table for everyone to see, or...

b) ...this whole episode is bullshit.

Faites vos jeux, mesdames et messieurs. For what it's worth, via unsolicited mails from industry contacts and a quick straw poll of others your author gets the feeling that there's less to this deal, especially any eventual price tag, than meets the eye. Or in other words, i ain't going near this dog.

Lake Shore Gold (LSG.to): A news release, a chart and an owl

Here's a link to a news release


Here's a chart:


Here's an owl:
dyodd, dudettes and dudes

Rick Van Nieuwenhuyse, world's highest paid gofer, "decides to make way for new blood" at NadaGold (NG)

rick!
RICK!

Thanks due to the dozen or so readers that have sent in this news. We note that NadaGold (NG) is 13% up on the company reorganization....is that how much Rick! was holding the stock back? Time will tell...

Update: So I've spent the morning watching the NG ask get whacked on time and again, we're now at +24.4% and counting (fast). You gringos really will buy anything, won't you?

Goldgroup Mining (GGA.to) at Caballo Blanco

The big question is whether Goldgroup Mining (GGA.to) is going to admit to the English speaking mining world the same things that it's discussing with locals around the Veracruz area of Mexico, location of its flagship Caballo Blanco project. 

  • Down Veracruz way, GGA.to knows that there's growing local and social opposition to the project due to its location just a couple of clicks away from a nuclear power plant.
  • Down Actopan way, GGA is now active in running media campaigns against the local anti-mining groups and asking locals to take into account that it has all the necessary permits and that, according to GGA at least, the accusations are hearsay and guesswork.
  • Down Mexico way, GGA.to is fully aware that questions have recently been raised about the viability of the project in the National parliament by sitting parliamentarians, and just as a very tight looking Presidential election cycle is getting underway too.

However, up in the North it seems that Goldgroup Mining (GGA.to) has decided on the mushroom politics strategy, as nary a whisper of potential opposition has made it into the English language up to now. The question is why, because if GGA.to is so confident about its project and benefits and lack of safety issues, shouldn't it be proud and open and explanatory in English as well as in Spanish? So c'mon GGA. don't hide your benefits under a bushel and tell us all how the project at Caballo Blanco isn't going to affect the nuclear power facility just next door....you know it makes sense to alleviate any sense of concern the investment community might have in a transparent manner.


disclosure: no position in GGA.to of any type, not family and not friends to the best of my knowledge. We seek the truth, not pecuniary gain, from Piggott and friends.

Jaguar Mining (JAG) (JAG.to) the centre of Chinese whispers, Bloomie style

Here's a chart of Jaguar Mining (JAG) (JAG.to):


And here's the story that proves, beyond a shadow of a doubt that China is desperate for gold, as desperation is the only possible motive if you want to pay a premium for a company like this. Thanks to reader LN for the headsup:
Shandong Gold Group Co., parent of China’s second-largest gold producer by market value, made a $785 million offer to buy Jaguar Mining Inc. (JAG), two people familiar with the deal said.
Shandong bid $9.30 for every Jaguar share, said the people, who asked not to be identified because of the information is confidential. That’s 73 percent more than Jaguar’s closing price of $5.39 yesterday in New York. The company has 84.4 million shares issued, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
Jaguar Mining produces gold from its Turmalina and Paciência mines in Brazil and is also developing a third operation in the country. It produced 40,660 ounces of gold in the third quarter and full year output may be between 155,000 ounces and 163,000 ounces, according to an Oct. 18 statement.
There have been $37.3 billion of deals announced this year at an average premium of 25 percent, led by Barrick Gold Corp. (ABX)’s offer for Equinox Minerals Ltd. (EQN), according to data compiled by Bloomberg. That compares with $35.9 billion of deals done last year.
Shandong spokesman Lu Haitao did not answer calls to his mobile.

It remains to be seen just how much of this story is real and official and how much is bullshit, of course. Those who have previously been burned by Bloomberg hype will know what I mean on that.

UPDATE: Turns out that Reuters is running the story too, which makes it somewhat more trustworthy in your humble scribe's view.  However the cash number mentioned in this version is $1Bn and again its "two sources that can't be named", so there is still a whiff of fishy about all this. But, quite honestly, it's still more than strange that JAG should be getting a $10-or-so PPS valuation from a cash deal like this when it hasn't traded at such levels since mid 2010. Then there's the basic back story of how badly run JAG has been this last couple of years. Oh well, WTFDIK anyway?

UPDATE 2: The market authorities have done the right thing and halted trading on the stock. Glad to see they're not asleep at the wheel on this one and, in general, the it's worth a shout-out that reg authorities in Canada have been doing a better job of policing the hairier aspects of their market recently. This is good.

Update 3: Jaguar Speaks! Here's the NR, here's the semi-cryptic comment that JAG hopes is enough to get the halt lifted, I suppose:


CONCORD, NH, Nov. 16, 2011 /CNW/ - Jaguar Mining Inc. ("Jaguar" or the "Company") (JAG: TSX/NYSE) in response to news articles today regarding an unsolicited offer to buy the Company, acknowledges that it has received proposals over the past few weeks.
The Company confirmed that, in light of the publicized unsolicited offer, the Board of Directors has determined to initiate a strategic process to explore alternatives to maximize shareholder value.  At this time, none of these proposals has progressed beyond the exploratory stage.  The Board has retained financial and legal advisors to assist in this regard.  There is no assurance that the process will culminate in a change of control transaction.
Jaguar's Board of Directors intends to update the shareholders of the Company at the appropriate time.

We also direct you to a new post today, entitled "What happens next at Jaguar Mining (JAG) (JAG.to)?"

Chart of the day is...

...gold, last five days:

I continue to find it very interesting that gold isn't doing very much at all through this Euro crisis thingy. Inaction is its own asset.

11/15/11

Peru continues to ride its luck on the metals market

Plain fact 1: Peru's metal production numbers are either flat or declining. Here's the chart for gold production 2009 to date (Sept '11 numbers came out yesterday) and it's by no means the worst (those would be zinc, lead and silver):


Plain fact 2: Peru has got lucky and can cover up its stagnating production with world metals prices. Here's a chart that shows what happens when you multiply the gold production seen above by the monthly London Fix average for each month:

Data from here

And now it's time for...

...FUTBOL!



Santa Maradona priez pour moi


UPDATE: Two good wins. Ecuador deservedly beat a poor Peru 2-0 in a scrappy game. Meanwhile, Santa Maradona answered the prayers and Argentina finally woke up and won 2-1 in Colombia after going in for the break 1-0 down, Messi and Kun doing the damage. Sadly your author's theoretical bets went down due to the Ecuador win, but fair's fair and El Tri won fair and square.


My worst investment decision this year...

...was deciding, on various occasions too, to pass on Lumina Copper (LCC.v):


Rats.

And just to make sure, LCC.v came out with an absolutely stonking resource update this morning that counts all category copper at a cool 14.9Bn lbs...with plenty of gold credits and surely more to come from the drillbit, too. The one thing you should note to the negative is the high cut-off numbers (0.4% CuEq) compared to overall mineral grades, but the price move this morning is its own story.

Oh well, it won't be the last decent trade missed, either. Congrats to longs (and there are a few IKN readers that to my knowledge were smarter than I).

Great Panther 3q11

Here's an interesting chart*:


After the sales glitch reported by Great Panther (GPR.to) (GPL) earlier this year, the company then told us, on August 8th, that they'd found a new buyer and everything was hunkydory again. As this chart shows, indeed payable ounces outstripped produced ounces in 3q11 to the tune of 20k oz Ag, however if we consider the underlying difference between produced and payables at GPR, I'd guesstimate that the company has only made a 35,000 oz dent in the inventory build-up it had back in 2q11.

In other words, GPR had over half the 3q11 period to reduce that stockpile with its new buyer and didn't move so very many of those backlogged ounces. Interesting this time around, but potentially very interesting in the current 4q11 period when those numbers eventually surface.

*If you're a total nerd, at least. Count me in

Chart of the day is...

...crude oil, monthlies:


It almost looks orderly when looked at with a longview timescale, doesn't it? Anyway, here we are knocking on the $100/bbl door again.

In other news, I should get my PC (and working life) back later today.

11/14/11

Coming to you live from a laptop

Subscribers already know that your humble scribe has been having a few technical problems at the office (which have since moved to the fubar state). This is a quick note to say that IKN may well be off air for the next 24 hours as a result. 

Fear not, we will return!