source: La Republica
also la republica feibu, here and here
Update: On Yehude Simon's twitter account, he's talking about his reliable source close to the event and how the move was "inevitable".
UPDATE 2: We hear in very provisional and underground info that "several other" ministers on the left leaning wing of the Humala government are also out in a purge that looks like taking the Humala government towards a harder line with protesters. If true we're likely to see much less dialogue from now on and more crackdowns.
UPDATE 3: We now hear a full re-shuffle of cabinet ministers will happen tomorrow with at least three ministers leaving and perhaps as many as five. Along with Lerner, the exit door is shown to Culture Minister Susana Baca, Agro Minister Miguel Caillaux and Women's Minister Aida Garci.
You hear it here first, people.
UPDATE 4: Lerner's resignation now confirmed via official government communique. At least we know why Ollanta Humala backed out of his trip to watch the Cristina show at the last minute on Thursday evening.
UPDATE 5: If this latest rumour is correct, we have a full scale crisis on our hands in Peru. We're hearing...unconfirmed (there are now a zillion rumours now flying, but this one is fairly well sourced) that the entire Humala cabinet of ministers has resigned along with Lerner.
UPDATE 6: Ok, update 5 is true but it's also normal protocol to see all ministers offer resignations when the cabinet chief resigns, so it's not so bad. What we now wait for is Humala's call or "should s/he stay or should s/he go?" on each minister. Latest whisper is that Mining and Energy Minister Carlos Herrera Descalzi won't be coming back, but we're now starting to get rumours upon rumours so it may be time to sit back and let official word come through on all changes. Not only that, but the Real Madrid/Barsa match starts at 4pm local time (80 minutes from now) so there are more important things going on, too :-)
UPDATE 7: Salomon Lerner's resignation letter here. Meanwhile there is some talk doing the rounds that Humala refused to accept his resignation and they're trying to reach some kind of agreement in which Lerner stays on. All rather strange stuff and hardly reflects well on Humala's leadership qualities if true. The guy wants to resign, well let him resign!
UPDATE 8: Ok, we now hear that Interior Minister Óscar Valdés Dancuart will be the next Cabinet Chief and PM and that Humala has indeed accepted Lerner's resignation. The swearing-in ceremony happens tomorrow. Meanwhile Real Madrid went one goal up about five minutes ago and Messi nearly equalized just a couple of minutes later, so El Clasico looks like a cracker.
UPDATE 9: Latest rumour is that all other cabinet ministers will keep their posts...for the time being at least. Only Lerner leaving. If true, good for Humala. However I'll stress here that there are still zillions of rumours flying about and some sources are better than others. This is one that needs to be confirmed in your author's humble opinion.
UPDATE 10: It's half-time at the Bernabeu and 1-1, so time to think about this resignation and paragraph four of Lerner's bye bye letter is the key here (starts "En este marco..."). What it says between the lines is that Lerner's strategy of looking for dialogue and consensus between opposing factions hasn't worked and that if Humala wants to use other tactics, it's best for him to gracefully retire first. This is almost certainly referring to what Humala has decided to do about the Minas Conga protest in Cajamarca and speaking in general terms, I really really don't think thiS news is going to go down well with those intent on opposing the government on the mine plan...not in the confrontational way they've been doing so far, at least. One should not forget that Humala is an ex-army guy and that he had a reputation of being pretty ruthless during his time commanding battalions against Sendero insurgents in the 1990s. That's my take on things, anyway.
UPDATE 11: This is the last one for today, I have a Weekly to write for one thing. The Peru press is now taking the line of "ex-military man (Valdes) joins ex-military man (Humala) at the helm" and playing up the apparent loss of dialogue-style politicians in favour of more authoritarian figures. That may be the case, but then again it might be oversimplifying things because Lerner jumped suddenly (Lerner probably made his intentions clear to Humala Thurs PM Friday AM, who in turn made the snap decision not to attend Cristina's inauguration in Argentina) and was not pushed. However it is telling that the first major change in the executive cabinet is an apparent shift to the right and not the left (frankly I was expecting the FinMin to be the key change some time next year and his replacement a vital pivot point, but this one does the same job). The message is now pretty clear; Humala has turned his back on classic left wing populist policies and is coming from right-of-centre.
UPDATE 12: OK, one last one at 8:30pm EST.. Talk now is of a swearing-in ceremony tonight (update: now confirmed for 8pm Sunday evening) with Valdés getting his job and also a couple of ministerial changes. Environmental lawyer Manuel Pulgar-Vidalis to take the Environment Ministry job, with current Min Ricardo Giesecke out on his ear (he was a bit of a disaster in the job, has to be said). Also Valdés' move to Prime Minister means his job until today of Interior Ministry is given to a new face, Alberto Otarola we hear. There may be more changes at cabinet level, but they won't make it to this blog now that normal media channels are closely covering the whole shebang now. IKN signing out.
News out tonight linked here, nice bit pasted below
|S&P/TSX COMPOSITE INDEX|
|Issue Name||Symbol||60/Completion|| Live Composite GICS |
|Algonquin Power & Utilities Corp.||AQN||Completion||Utilities|
|Fortuna Silver Mines Inc.||FVI||Completion||Materials|
|Parkland Fuel Corporation||PKI||Completion|
|Issue Name||Symbol||60/Completion|| Live Composite GICS |
|GMP Capital Inc.||GMP||Completion||Financials|
|Ivanhoe Energy Inc.||IE||Completion||Energy|
|Yellow Media Inc.||YLO||Completion||Consumer Discretionary|
Just freakin awesomeness, nothing else to add.
..has just been sent to subscribers. Belt'n'braces post complete.
PS: Oops, just spotted a typo: 1$ = 25%
Amongst much dross and overhype, Michael White of The Guardian gets it spot on correct.
2009: 9 winning trades, 1 break-even trade, 3 losing trades
2010: 16 winning trades, 7 losing trades
2011: 10 winning trades, 6 losing trades
It's Inmaculada Concepción today, which is good news for those with Faith and those without...long weekend in LatAm.
UPDATE: WTFDIK indeed, as reader 'BF' mails in and points to my obvious brainfart; the other 3.6m shares are held in GDX. The prosaic is the best explanation once again, but 10% is 10% after all. Anyway, thanks due to BF for the datapoint and for not calling me a dumbass outright, even though I deserved it.
UPDATE: About 30 minutes after this post went up (still morning, though) and JAG is U$6.53 and still dropping. Oh dear, Mr. Wentworth
Stansberry has been hawking John Doody's pending Silver Stock Analyst Report being released on 12/9 at 8am EST. here's the link to their "video" which you can avoid watching/listening to the whole thing by clicking Quit on that browser window and it will ask you if you really mean to Quit to which you should click Cancel, and you'll be able to READ the text of the "video" and skim over all of the marketing BS.
The meat of this "video" is the following "teases" of the 4 Silver Stocks ("the universe of silver stocks ... there are only around 20 pure plays.") he's going to recommend:Bottom line: I believe right now, as we experience another U.S. dollar crisis, silver could race up much higher than gold once again.
And to hedge myself against this possibility, I'm looking to buy FOUR (4) silver stocks, starting December 9th.
I applied almost the exact same metrics I use for gold stocks. And I came up with a short list of just four stocks that could take off as silver prices soar.
Each of these four stocks is #1 in one of the metrics I use: One is the #1 most profitable silver firm... One is #1 in digging out silver ounces... One is the fastest growing silver firm... And one is the best explorer.
Given that you have had many successful Silver plays in IKN Weekly, I'm wondering if you can peg Doody's four stocks and give your subscribers a heads-up before Thursday market close, ESPECIALLY if any of the four might be one's on your list of 15?
1) The most profitable silver firm: My best guess on the one Doody will plump for is Pan American Silver (PAAS) (PAA.to).
2) Number 1 in digging out silver ounces: My best guess is First Majestic (AG) (FR.to)
3) Fastest growing silver firm: My best guess is Silver Wheaton (SLW)
4) The best explorer: My best guess is MAG Silver (MVG) (MAG.to)
UPDATE Friday 9th Dec: Apparently, all four of Doody's picks are mentioned in this post, but not necessarily in the four guesses.
...the 12 month chart of Calais Resources (CAAUF.pk)....
UPDATE: The everwelcome quipster reader 'MP' mails in with, "Is it just a coincidence that your chart of the day kinda looks like the Vancouver skyline?"
made me laugh, anyway.
CONCORD, New Hampshire, Dec. 6, 2011 /CNW/ - Jaguar Mining Inc. ("Jaguar" or the "Company") (TSX: JAG.TO - News) (NYSE: JAG.TO - News) announced that Daniel Titcomb will be leaving his role as President and Chief Executive Officer of the Company effective today.
On an interim basis, the Chairman of the Board of Directors, Gary E. German, together with two other Jaguar directors, Gil Clausen and John Andrews, will form a newly-created Office of the Chairman to fulfil the duties of the Chief Executive Officer. These directors also constitute a Special Committee of the Board charged with oversight of the Company's strategic process announced in November. (continues here)
Oh no - what kind of trouble?
One ont cross beams gone owt askew ont treadle.
One ont cross beams gone owt askew ont treadle.
I don't understand what you're saying.
(In clear English accent) One of the cross beams has gone out askew on the treadle.
Well what on earth does that mean?
(now annoyed) I don't know! Mr Wentworth just told me to come in here and say that there was trouble at the mill, that's all, I didn't expect a kind of Spanish Inquisition.
From this, of course:
Seems like the Financial Times is the world's tip sheet at the moment. Suspicious? Yup you bet.
Humala Security Chief Fired for Robbery of Auto Fuel
Officials in charge of the security of the President, his wife and children and his parents falsified service records to siphon off fuel from the Presidential vehicles and re-sell it. Those implicated include the administration office head Police Colonel Belermino Vásquez Guevara, Police Commander Simión Pérez Mego and the head of security Police Commander Antonio Medrano Lau
Report by Doris Aguirre
Not even the Presidential Palace is clean.
The Minister of the Interior, Óscar Vadlés Dancuart, fired the head of Presidential security, Police Colonel Belermino Vásquez Guevara, due to his involvement in the systematic theft of fuel assigned to vehicles that protect President Ollanta Humala, his wife Nadine Heredia and the Presidential family.
Interior Minister Valdés took this drastic step least week based on a report presented by the head of the ministry's intelligence service (Digimin), Colonel Eduardo Arbulú Gonzales.
Agents under Gonzales discovered the officials of the presidential security brigade were adulterating mileometers, the devices that register the amount of kilometers travelled by a vehicle, in order to justify the fuel expenses in falsified services that never happened. Records were invented not only for the Presidential couple but also for the children and parents of Humala. According to the Digimin report, others implicated include Police Commander Simión Pérez Mego and the head of security Police Commander Antonio Medrano Lau
Source at the National Police inspectorate say the Digimin reported filming the offices at the precise moment that modified the kilometer readings in the vehicles. Continues here
Poor old Candente (DNT.to) ....always the bridesmaid, never the bride. Here's the NR, here's how it starts:
VANCOUVER, BRITISH COLUMBIA, Dec 06, 2011 (MARKETWIRE via COMTEX) -- Quadra FNX Mining Ltd. (the "Company" or "Quadra FNX") today announced that it has entered into a definitive agreement (the "Arrangement Agreement") with KGHM Polska Miedz S.A. ("KGHM") (warsaw:KGH) pursuant to which KGHM has agreed to acquire all of the issued and outstanding common shares of Quadra FNX and all of the outstanding Quadra FNX warrants (the "2007 Warrants" and the "2009 Warrants") by way of a Plan of Arrangement (the "Arrangement").KGHM, which is listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange with a market capitalization of approximately US$8 billion, is the world's 9th largest producer of copper and 3rd largest producer of silver.Under the Arrangement, shareholders of Quadra FNX will receive C$15.00 in cash for each common share of Quadra FNX, representing a premium of approximately 41.3% to the 20 day volume weighted average price of Quadra FNX's common shares on the TSX as of December 5, 2011. In addition, holders of the 2007 Warrants will receive C$5.76 in cash for each 2007 Warrant held, and holders of the 2009 Warrants will receive C$1.68 in cash for each 2009 Warrant held. The total transaction value is approximately C$3.5 billion, inclusive of US$500 million of outstanding gross debt. KGHM has advised that it intends to finance the acquisition using existing cash on hand.Quadra FNX's Board of Directors, after consultation with the Company's financial and legal advisors, and based on the recommendation of an independent committee of the Company's Board of Directors, has unanimously determined that the Arrangement is fair to Quadra FNX's shareholders and warrantholders and will recommend that Quadra FNX's shareholders and warrantholders together vote in favour of the Arrangement. All senior officers and directors of the Company intend to yada yada continues here
This hit four minutes ago. Here's the paste-out:
UPDATE: For whatever reason, I've been mailed a couple of times since this post went up and asked an opinion on the deal as stands. Well for one, it isn't a deal, not yet anyway, which is made crystal clear by the NR itself. It's a "non-binding agreement in principle"...and hey, only 18 months and umpteen delays and postponements to get that, too. Second, the terms may well be workable...just about...for a big project with loads of high grading gold such as at FDN, but it's a poor precedent to set for the exploration sector in general and will put off far more companies about the country than will attract. As for the details, the 52% overall burden (minimum) isn't a big surprise, but the 70% windfall tax is very user-unfriendly and we're supposing that gets put on top of the overall 52% minimum, of course.TORONTO, ONTARIO--(Marketwire -12/05/11)- Kinross Gold Corporation (TSX: K.TO - News)(NYSE: KGC - News) announced today it has reached a non-binding agreement in principle with the government of Ecuador regarding key fiscal and legal parameters for the exploitation of the Fruta del Norte (FDN) deposit in Ecuador's Zamora Chinchipe province.
A number of additional steps are required to conclude a final and binding agreement, including: the completion and approval of the project feasibility study by Kinross; a change in project status from economic evaluation to exploitation in accordance with Ecuadorian law; and, following the completion of negotiations, entering into definitive exploitation and investment protection agreements in a form satisfactory to the parties.
"This agreement represents an important milestone in the development of FDN," said Kinross President and CEO Tye Burt. "Key objectives are to develop the mineral resources at FDN in a socially responsible manner and to work closely with the government and local communities to establish FDN as a flagship mining project in Ecuador."
The key terms of the agreement in principle include the following:
-- An obligation to maintain the government's share of project economic benefits at a minimum of 52%. Project economic benefits are defined as the cumulative sum of the Government's share (comprised of the royalty, corporate income tax, the state portion of the profit sharing contribution, and windfall profit tax, as described below, plus a 12% value added tax applied to customary project expenditures) and Kinross' share (comprised of the after tax free cash flows of the project), calculated annually; -- A sliding-scale net smelter return royalty linked to the realized gold price, with a royalty of 5% for gold sold at a price of $1,200 per ounce or less, 6% for gold sold above $1,200 up to $1,600 per ounce, 7% for gold sold above $1,600 up to $2,000 per ounce, and 8% for gold sold above $2,000 per ounce. The net smelter return royalty is calculated on the basis of revenues after the deduction of windfall profits tax payments (see below) and customary transportation and refining charges; -- Advance royalties of $65 million credited against future royalty obligations and payable in two installments, subject to various project development conditions; -- A corporate income tax rate of 22%, to be fixed under the proposed terms of the investment protection agreement; -- A profit sharing contribution equal to 15% of earnings before tax, to be fixed under the proposed terms of the investment protection agreement. This 15% contribution includes two components, with 12% to be paid to the State and 3% to be paid to employees. Profit sharing contributions are deductible expenses for the purpose of calculating corporate income tax; -- A windfall profits tax, whereby the government would receive 70% of the excess of the realized gold price above an agreed base gold price. The base gold price is defined as the greater of $1,650 per ounce and the spot gold price at the time of signing of the definitive exploitation agreement. The base price is indexed to the United States Consumer Price Index (CPI) on a monthly basis. The windfall profits tax would be deductible for the purpose of calculating royalties, profit sharing contributions and corporate income taxes; -- An exemption from customs duties payable on capital goods to be purchased during construction, as approved by the Ecuadorian government; -- Electrical power to be provided from the national grid at the industrial customer rate (currently 6.8 cents/KWH); -- Disputes arising between the parties will generally be subject to customary dispute resolution mechanisms including binding arbitration in Chile under UNCITRAL Rules; -- If new Ecuadorian laws are passed that adversely impact the fiscal and economic parameters of the exploitation agreement, the right of Kinross to seek amendments to the fiscal parameters of the exploitation agreement to preserve the original economic equilibrium and/or seek any remedies, pursuant to customary dispute resolution mechanisms; -- Kinross undertaking various social infrastructure initiatives to benefit local communities, including the construction of a road and training center, airport improvements, and contributions to local social programs through domestic and international not-for-profit partners selected by Kinross.Kinross is finalizing a project feasibility study, expected to be completed at year-end 2011. As previously disclosed, the Company is experiencing industry-wide escalation on FDN project costs, and both capital and operating costs for the project are expected to be approximately 25-30% higher than estimates included in the project pre-feasibility study. Kinross and the Ecuadorian government are currently completing negotiations and drafting of the definitive exploitation and investment protection agreements.
The bottom line is that for juniors, this deal sucks. And it still isn't a done deal.
Here's how today's Morgan Stanley regular "This Week In Latin America" pdf kicks off:
Argentina: The Return of Orthodoxy? by Daniel Volberg.
While most investors will be watching the European summit next weekend, we will be watching Argentina for the names of the new cabinet ministers for signs that the new administration may be about to take an orthodox turn. Indeed, we think the most likely outcome is tighter fiscal and monetary policy along with moves to limit wage increases—all designed to regain control over Argentina’s inflation problem
This is what Kirchner inner circle member Daniel Filmus said today:
No surprises. According to Senator Daniel Filmus, the new Cristina Kirchner ministerial cabinet will not have any great changes.
"The cabinet will be, in general terms, the same as that which since 2003 has brought the transformations to the country. There aren't any surprises (in store)."
...gold (proxy GLD) versus the S&P500 index, last five years.
Screw you mainstream. Still laughing at the gold longs?
UPDATE: Watch a recording of his brief address here.
- A chain smoking heavy beer drinker who didn't like turning up for training.
- A qualified medical doctor.
- An off-scale IQ.
- A man who refused to go for the big bucks and play in Europe until Brazil's dictatorship was lifted and formed a political pressure group around him to help force democratic elections in his country.
UPDATE: Corinthians stadium today.