The Mexico Presidentials after Debate One: Vázquez drops, AMLO climbs, but Peña Nieto affirms his position as favourite

Mex pollster Buendía y Lareto today (May 14th) published a survey that shows the effect of the first televised debate between the four candidates for President in the July 1st vote. We see the effect of the May 6th debate in pre/post debate surveys taken by the same polling company (margin of error +/-3.5%)

The takeaways:

• As many people surmised at the time, Josefina Vázquez Mota (PAN) had a weak debate and that shows in the drop in her voter intention.

• AMLO (PRD) had a good debate (it's one of his strong points) and as a result is marked in second place now.

• Meanwhile, Garbiel Quadri of the minor PANAL party showed well and basically doubled his voter intention numbers. But at 2% overall, he's always going to be a bit player in this year's election.

• The main winner according to this poll was Enrique Peña Nieto, who saw his voter intention rise from an already strong favourite's position.

In effect, this race is down to whether AMLO can close the gap in the next two or three weeks. If not, EPN will begin to look like the veritable shoo-in. Here's the same data in table form

 

Mexico Presidentials: Voter Preferences pre-and post-May 6th Debate
candidate	pre-debate	post-debate	difference
Peña Nieto (PRI)	39.20%	41.90%	2.70%
AMLO (PRD)	17.50%	20.90%	3.40%
Vázquez Mota (PAN)	22.10%	19.40%	-2.70%
Quadri (PANAL)	1.10%	2.10%	1.00%
no answer	20.20%	15.70%	-4.50%
published May 14th by pollster Buendía y Laredo
post-debate survey taken May 7 to May 10

Data from here