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We've followed this dataset quite closely for a few months and a few posts, mainly because of President Juan Manuel Santos and his constant "We'll be at one million barrels per day next month...no wait, make that the month after...no wait...errr (etc)" bluster that's beginning to have more than a tinge of huevo en cara to it. So when the May 2012 numbers came in this month and showed a production schedule that unexpectedly dropped, the lack of headlines out of the sycophantic Colombian press roared its own silence. Here are the raw monthly numbers that show the inertia setting in over the last year:
And here's the derived dataset that really catches mine eye, the trailing monthly percentage growth.
That's a big drop in growth rhythm so if June comes in at under 939,000bpd, we cross into negative territory for the first time. By the way, the first five months of 2012 add up to an average 5.74% growth from the same period of 2011 (cos I knew you'd ask). All data from here.