Datanálisis, regarding as perhaps the most reliable pollster in Venezuela (which isn't saying much to be honest, but you have to start somewhere) has just released the results of its latest voter intention poll for the Presidential election coming on October 7th. Here's the chart from the numbers:
The poll was taken up to and including June 23rd, which was one week after the inscription day that marked the first quasi-official event of the electoral campaign. The poll surveyed 1300 people nationwide between June 14th and June 23rd and is given a margin of error of 2.72%
Chávez leads by over 15 points and it looks like Capriles will have to look to getting the maximum number of those undecideds to make any sort of impression. Amongst the secondary data, we note that the Chávez "hard vote", those 100% sure of voting for him, comes to 41.2%...and that's a strong base from which to build. Also, the when asked which way they were leaning right now, undecideds split 55% towards Capriles and 44% towards Chávez. In other words, Hugo Chávez is still hot favourite for this election according to the polls.