9/6/12

The South America World Cup Qualifiers: September part one


The international futbol is back, with two rounds of the South American World Cup Qualifiers to be played this week and next. We home in on the first rounds coming up Friday in our post (second round of September games happen next week) and take what's left of our original $100 kitty (precisely $90.25 from back here) and try to conjure up a win or two to get back on track. So to the matches (in cronological order) and the odds, as supplied by Ladbrokes dot com:

Colombia 11/8   Draw 21/10   Uruguay 13/8
Ecuador 2/5   Draw 11/4   Bolivia 6/1
Argentina 2/7   Draw 7/2   Paraguay 7/1
Peru 11/10   Draw 9/4   Venezuela 19/10

Four tricky ones to call but this time I think I've ID'd a winner. Venezuela may have improved in the last few years as a team and the Vinotinto is no longer the joke end of South American football, but the fact remains that they've never won a competitive match in Lima versus Peru. Not once, and with Peru's stars very likely to be back and playing uninjured (Farfan, Vargas and Pizarro start, the only slight doubt is with Guerrero and the latest is that he's probably recovered enough from a recent knock to play) which makes a change from their first sets of matches when they cried off injured in droves, Peru might be in last place in the table right now but they're a good bet to pick up three points. The price of 11/10 isn't a knockdown bargain, but it's better than the other obvious home wins at Ecuador (versus a very weak Bolivia) and Argentina (that under Sabella is finally starting to look more like a real team and less like a collecion of 11 fabulous players who don't communicate well, see previous managers' efforts for evidence).

So to the bets: We go

$30 on Peru to win at 11/10, inplying a theoretical total return of $63 ($33 winning + $30 stake return)
$10 on a Peru (11/10) Ecuador (2/5) Argentina (2/7) treble (which means they all have to win for the bet to succeed), that will pay $37.80 if successful (and nothing if it isn't)

We're therefore risking $40 of our 90-and-bits kitty on this weekend's games but before we leave, remind readers that the bets suggested are virtual in nature (as I don't throw 40 dollars at football matches) Let's see how we get on.