... a chunk of classic George Carlin goes down very well.
This time we share.
... a chunk of classic George Carlin goes down very well.
Its President made it to five years in office.
"Under ideal conditions with the revised mix of fresh ore and tailings [in 4q11], this plant [La Encantada] should be able to achieve 60% recovery rates"
UPDATE: Twitterpal Klichstig notes that in 2006, Alan Twobreakfasts García got a one point pop-ette in November (pollster Apoyo) after polling downwards post-honeymoon. It turned out to be the anomaly as after that, things went seriously downhill ratings-wise. Fair enough and one poll doesn't make for a trend, so let's see what Datum turns up in Feb and March before jumping to conclusions. Gracias, Klichstig
...the headline inflation rate for Peru (Lima&Callao), January 2008 to present.
Creeping up, folks. 4.74% at end 2011
Venezuela’s 2012 Presidential election and potential trading opportunities arising
Here’s a country that doesn’t get much feature in our coverage at The IKN Weekly, for the basic reason that it’s the worst place in The Americas to have junior mining exposure. However, we offer up a segment in this week’s ‘Regional Politics’ because for those of you with a penchant for risk, there may be coin to be made from the country this year.
The basic scenario is that on October 7th Venezuela holds its Presidential election to decide whether Hugo Chávez continues as President or whether the person chosen as his contender gets the job. We can expect the Chávez campaign to get into gear in February (he’s already announced he’ll go into full re-election mode as from February 4th) and in the same month, on February 12th to be exact, the opposition alliance known as “Mesa de Unidad Democratica” or “MUD” (that’s an acronym that should stick in your brain) will choose which of the heads of the parties that make up the alliance will face off against Chávez.
As for the opposition choice, there are five names being put forward at the moment, with the top two (the winner likely to come from one of these) being Henrique Capriles Radonski, current governor of the State of Miranda and Pablo Pérez Álvarez, current governor of the State of Zulia. Also in with a shout is Leopoldo López, as although Venezuela’s courts have ruled that he is ineligible to run, the Interamerican Court of Human Rights (CIDH) has ruled that he can (though it’s doubtful Venezuela will listen). Others with outsider’s chances in the opposition primary are María Corina Machado Parisca and Pablo Medina.
So in other words, for about six months of 2012 until the beginning of October with the race hotting up as we get closer to the finish line we’re going to have a pretty easily understood, straight race between Chávez in the Left corner and one of those five (I’d put my money on Capriles Radonski with a saver bet on Pérez) in the Right corner. So with the scene set, here are the points I wanted to make today:
• I think Chávez wins. Not only is his PSUV party a real heavyweight, well oiled (literally) political machine that is certain to run a strong campaign, but when push comes to shove he still has the approval or at least the non-disapproval of a big segment of Venezuelan society (after all these years, too). Added to this are the doubts that must be expressed about the unity of the anti-Chávez opposition, as the MUD alliance is made up of parties and factions that have a history of fighting amongst themselves. If the MUD alliance starts to fracture when the going gets tough, the unlikely will become the impossible.• However, it’s not going to be a walkover for Chávez and my best guess (along with the guesses of the handful of people who know Venezuela better than your author that I’ve exchanged, discussed and conversed with in recent weeks on this matter) is that there may well be occasions when the opposition candidate gets upwards momentum and begins to look good in the polls (whether those polls be biased for or against, because both pro and anti Chávez trickery from pollsters for him and against him is a guarantee in this campaign).
• This is where the investment opportunity lies, because if it looks as though Chávez is in trouble during the campaign and enough people begin to think that the opposition candidate can win,Venezuelan exposed financial devices of all shapes and forms are likely to rally, and rally hard. Here at The IKN Weekly first thoughts always turn to junior mining companies, so issues such as Rusoro (RML.v) or Gold Reserve (GRZ) (GRZ.to) or perhaps even a tiny explorer that prefers to hide its exposure to Venezuela at the moment such as Valgold (VAL.v) with a tiny market cap of around $5m, but perhaps the real place to play any politically-charged move in Venezuela financial devices are its sovereign bonds being as they are highly liquid, they move decent amounts of money and are, financially speaking, the best way to get in and out of the country quickly and easily.
• But it’s not all that easy (it never is). For one thing, the opposition rally and “serious move” might not occur (though I and many others think it will). For another, getting the timing right on an entry point may turn out to be fiendishly difficult, as although I’ve pondered this question for these last few weeks (and polled on it too) it’s really tough to say exactly when we could see said opposition rally along the timeline of this 2012 campaign. Perhaps it’s March, perhaps later in May or June. Perhaps they’ll leave it til later on. Or perhaps there’ll be several occasions when the opposition looks in a stronger than expected position in the polls (be they rigged or unrigged). Also, timing the exit of any paper-successful trade will be tough too, as if you hang in there a little too long profits could be vaporized very quickly, or you sell too early and take a small profit, only to see the opposition surge a little more and serious money left on the table.
In other words, what’s being outlined here is a risk trade. Not only that, it’s clearly not for those who like to buy and forget, because you’ll need to be pretty vigilant at the screen all the time on any Venezuela political risk trade. I’d really like to be able to get more specific on a possible timeline too, but it’s going to be too much of a flux to predict matters at this early stage. However, there does seem to be a set-up for interesting, volatile and potentially very profitable trading on the Venezuela 2012 elections starting to form. This initial headsup comes in January because I wanted to set the scene for the year before those February dates come up and the campaign starts hotting up. Rest assured this won’t be the last you hear of Venezuela political risk (as concerns trading in particular) in The IKN Weekly as the year unfolds.
LAS VEGAS—RealTouch wants to bring teledildonics to Afghanistan. Company manager Scott Rinaldo, appearing at a CES party sponsored by porn firm Pink Visual, said he's working on distributing "a thousand dildos for the military wives"—in this case, Internet-connected sex toys that can let families thousands of miles apart get intimate.
St Elias Mines (SLI.v): Yet another KY Jelly job on retail saps that will not be investigated or prosecuted by the pathetic Canadian regulatory authorities
UPDATE Thursday: welcome Stockhouse bullboard readers. I adore how some of you guys think that two directors resigning this morning, including the arch-scummy Bain, can be bullish news for SLI.v. Retail, the crop that never fails...
Building Ounces Through DiscoveryWe are adding Lupaka Gold to our Mineral Exploration Watch List. Lupaka Gold currently trades at an Enterprise Value (EV) of approximately $42/oz based on its current 60% ownership of the 1.2 million ounce Crucero Gold Project in Peru. Since the initial NI43-101 compliant resource was completed in February 2011, the company has drilled over 7,000 metres and has expanded the mineralized envelope along strike and at depth. In our opinion, drill results indicate potential growth of 40% bringing the size of the A-1 zone to approximately 1.6 million ounces which remains open to the north and at depth.Looking For Another A-1
The Crucero Project is located high up in the Peruvian Andes and to advance the project, Lupaka must be successful in establishing a multi-million ounce gold resource. The extent of mineralization of the main A-1 zone requires additional drilling but from the information available, the total size is not likely to exceed 1.8 million ounces. Fortunately, Crucero contains an additional ten anomalies (A-2 to A-11), many of which are similar in size and share geochemical and geophysical signatures as A-1.A Robust Resource, Almost 1 g/t at the Lowest Cut-Off
Drilling to date has established several higher grade sections in excess of 9 g/t. Typical open pit resources use a lower cut-off grade of 0.3 g/t which increases tonnage but lowers overall grade. The A-1 resource inventory shows 760,000 ounces at 1.6 g/t using a 1.0 g/t cut-off. Even at the lowest 0.25 g/t cut-off, A-1 contains 1.3 million ounces of gold grading 0.94 g/t.
Continues here. Thanks due to reader 'V' for the headsup.
*in this case, average = mediocre
|Top 20 contributors to the Mitt Romney Campaign|
|2||Credit Suisse Group||$203,750|
|6||Kirkland & Ellis||$132,100|
|7||Bank of America||$126,500|
|10||JPMorgan Chase & Co||$112,250|
|14||Sullivan & Cromwell||$79,250|
|20||Bain & Co||$52,500|
XAU index versus GLD:
1) My daughter got a Sony Walkman MP3/MP4 player for her birthday over the weekend (8Gb too, lucky girl), so technologically challenged father and said lady are now going to sit down and work out just how this confoundedly small machine works (my Walkman ran on TDK tape cassettes, which seems like a loooong time ago now) and how you can get the maximum amount of Foo Fighters loaded into its memory.
2) Then I'm going out for lunch.
..gold, since end 2011.
LA LIBERTAD, Nicaragua — Explosions ring out near La Libertad, an area that was the scene of fierce combat during Nicaragua’s civil war in the 1980s.
But these days, the blasts come not from guerrilla fighters but from prospectors searching for gold.
Record prices for gold have led to an influx of foreign investors and the reactivation of Nicaragua’s long-dormant mining industry. Annual gold production has more than doubled in just the past three years. Gold is now the country’s No. 3 export and has helped Nicaragua post the highest economic growth rate in Central America. continues here
From IKN 112, dated June 26th 2011
Nicaragua: Political stability is up one point. The electioneering for the upcoming Presidential vote is now getting into full swing, current incumbent Daniel Ortega is leading the field and, even if you’re not keen on him (I’m not) or his left-wing political stance (I don’t care), there’s no doubting that his government of the last few years has been supportive of exploration, mining production and FDI inflows into the mining sector. Since our first review in IKN32 back in December 2009 Nicaragua has climbed by five points, each one well-deserved. This country is an unsung, underrated pocket of clear miner-friendliness in the CenAm region.
From IKN 123, dated September 11th 2011
Nicaragua: Unchanged. We are moving ever closer to the November 6th general election, but so far at least things on the campaign trail have been relatively smooth. Of course, the term “relatively smooth” may mean something quite different in a place like Switzerland and a Central American state with a history of volatility and violence so greater context is required from the reader, but overall the election seems to be going off without major incidents and that can only be a good thing for the present and future of the country. Mining exports have become an important part of the country’s economic mix and President Ortega (current favourite to get re-elected in November despite doubts over whether his candidacy is legal) may be many things but he’s not stupid, so mining activity is getting his government’s full support. We like Nica as a destination for exploration juniors and it’s certainly the best place in Central America to do mining business today.
From IKN137, dated December 18th 2011
Nicaragua: Political Stability up one point. The Presidential elections came and went and, apart from some suspicion of some ballot stuffing from the Ortega side, it’s clear who won the vote and would have won it anyway. Daniel Ortega isn’t my cup of tea on many levels, but he’s been good to the mining industry in Nicaragua and we’d expect that to continue in his second term. Thus the country gets a point added to its total and is now best of the rest outside our five preferred green-for-go countries. If you’re in B2Gold (BTO.to) or any of the early stage companies digging in Nica, you’re not in bad shape.
Just announced, Brazil's new wunderkind Neymar got this goal voted as the best of the year, 2011.
PS: And yeah, Leo Messi won the player of the year award again. No surprises on that one.
Just so you know. link here
Insider Overview :: Radius Gold Inc. (V:RDU)
|Jan 6/12||Jan 4/12||Ridgway, Simon T.P.||Direct Ownership||Common Shares||10 - Acquisition in the public market||5,000||$0.255|
|Jan 3/12||Jan 3/12||Ridgway, Simon T.P.||Direct Ownership||Common Shares||10 - Acquisition in the public market||4,000||$0.250|
|Jan 6/12||Jan 3/12||Ridgway, Simon T.P.||Direct Ownership||Common Shares||10 - Acquisition in the public market||20,000||$0.265|
|Jan 6/12||Jan 3/12||Ridgway, Simon T.P.||Direct Ownership||Common Shares||10 - Acquisition in the public market||62,000||$0.260|
|Jan 3/12||Dec 30/11||Ridgway, Simon T.P.||Direct Ownership||Common Shares||10 - Acquisition in the public market||2,500||$0.205|
|Jan 3/12||Dec 30/11||Ridgway, Simon T.P.||Direct Ownership||Common Shares||10 - Acquisition in the public market||4,500||$0.210|
|Dec 29/11||Dec 29/11||Ridgway, Simon T.P.||Direct Ownership||Common Shares||10 - Acquisition in the public market||10,000||$0.215|
|Dec 29/11||Dec 28/11||Ridgway, Simon T.P.||Direct Ownership||Common Shares||10 - Acquisition in the public market||500||$0.220|
|Dec 29/11||Dec 28/11||Ridgway, Simon T.P.||Direct Ownership||Common Shares||10 - Acquisition in the public market||1,000||$0.215|
|Dec 29/11||Dec 28/11||Ridgway, Simon T.P.||Direct Ownership||Common Shares||10 - Acquisition in the public market||10,000||$0.225|
|Dec 20/11||Dec 19/11||Ridgway, Simon T.P.||Direct Ownership||Common Shares||10 - Acquisition in the public market||75,000||$0.215|
|Dec 20/11||Dec 19/11||Ridgway, Simon T.P.||Direct Ownership||Common Shares||10 - Acquisition in the public market||5,000||$0.210|
|Dec 20/11||Dec 16/11||Ridgway, Simon T.P.||Direct Ownership||Common Shares||10 - Acquisition in the public market||10,000||$0.215|
|Dec 16/11||Dec 14/11||Ridgway, Simon T.P.||Direct Ownership||Common Shares||10 - Acquisition in the public market||1,000||$0.230|
|Dec 14/11||Dec 13/11||Ridgway, Simon T.P.||Direct Ownership||Common Shares||10 - Acquisition in the public market||5,000||$0.230|
|Dec 14/11||Dec 13/11||Ridgway, Simon T.P.||Direct Ownership||Common Shares||10 - Acquisition in the public market||500||$0.250|
Well it is compared to last year. He was also a buyer then. DYODD
disclosure: no position in RDU.v
Here's the silver chart.
...the ratio between crude oil prices (WTIC) and natgas prices (NATGAS).
And as a very smart person explained to me recently it's also why uranium juniors suck. It's not Fukushima.
seriously, it sucks.
UPDATE: What ho!
IKN140 has just been sent to subscribers. Hopefully you got yours, if not mail me.
UPDATE: link fixed