*ty to Ariel in the comments section for the prompt correction
It was all that "Euro breaks 1.30 and it's going straight to parity with the dollar. Bet that made you laugh...
UPDATE: Brad Humphrey of Raymond James puts on a brave face, but is right to highlight the thin-looking base case IRR as a problem, methinks. Here's the cover letter to the PDF RayJames just sent out (and I have no idea where you could possibly get a copy of the full PDF, oh no no no no...)
RATING Outperform 2
Closing Price C$8.40
Event: Guyana Goldfields released the results of its feasibility study for the Aurora project in Guyana.
Analysis: While overall the results were not as robust as we were anticipating (see table below), there remain areas for some optimization. Ultimately, with the known scarcity of projects producing at a rate of 250koz per year at cash costs of <$600/oz (Aurora study suggests ~$520/oz), in a geopolitically stable environment, Aurora remains an attractive takeout (our primary thesis).
Points to Note:
* While the initial capex is modestly higher at $525 mln, this is sized for a 9,500tpd throughput instead of the planned 8,000tpd. Post-feasibility we anticipate the capex could decline ~10%. The 9,500tpd CAPEX is roughly 16% higher than we were forecasting, resizing to 8,000tpd the CAPEX comes in around 6% higher than our forecasts.
* The after tax IRR (at $1,300/oz gold and $100/bbl oil) comes in at 12.7% - it appears this IRR includes the 9,500tpd capex. We expect the revised capex could add ~1-2% to the IRR. We were hoping for something approaching 20%. After tax IRR at $1,775/oz and $110/bbl oil stands at 23.6%.
* The sustaining capex increase is significant - ~$300 mln vs our $181 mln.
* The decrease in underground grade is also a concern from the resource grade of 4g/t to the feasibility grade of 3.3g/t.
* We assume an additional ~1.5Moz LOM given, we believe, the potential to increase the resource is good.
- Enrique Peña Nieto (PRI) at 40%, basically unchanged from earlier this month
- Josefina Vázquez Mota (PAN) at 25%, a point better than earlier this month.
- AMLO (PRD) at 17%, a point worse than earlier this month
Why Goldgroup Mining (GGA.to) hasn't mentioned this very important public hearing on Caballo Blanco to its shareholders is a complete and utter mystery
Tension Rising in Veracruz for Caballo Blanco
Denials as well as justifications of economic well-being were polarized between governmental and private sector opinions regarding the Caballo Blanco mine. Ecology groups talked of a serious environmental deterioration in the zone due to the extraction techniques and protested against the polemic project. The key moment in the meeting held in Actopan on Wednesday was when the Consultative Council for Sustainable Development, Vercruz Area (Consejo Consultivo para el Desarrollo Sustentable Núcleo Veracruz, CCDN núcleo Veracruz), a citizen's body integrated to the Semarnat (the national government office The Secretary of the Environment and Natural Resources) demanded that the Federal authorities decide on a resolution of "Not Authorized" to the Environmental Impact Study (EIS, known as 'Manifestation on Environmental Impact' (MIA) in Mexico) that had been presented by the company, Cndyming SA de CV.
The CCDS núcleo Veracruz stated that the NIA presented by Goldgroup Mining and its subsidiaries is inconsistent and with erroneous data regarding the importance of vegetation in the Cerro de La Paita.
disclosure: No position in GGA.to, not long, not short and no plans to change that situation. What, you think I'm nutso?
This is what they wrote:
DENVER, CO, Feb. 23, 2012 /CNW/ - Augusta Resource Corporation (TSX/NYSE Amex: AZC) ("Augusta") provides an update on the U.S. Forest Service (USFS) draft Environmental Impact Statement (EIS) regarding review from the regional Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) for its Rosemont Copper project.The San Francisco Environmental Protection Agency office is the final agency to submit comments to the USFS on the draft EIS, joining the 25,000 comments of which approximately 10,000 have been characterized as form letters or duplicates by the USFS. The EPA review was provided approximately 30 days past the official close of the public comment period, due to a request from the EPA to the USFS for additional time. The receipt of these comments now allows the USFS to complete its response to comments, and a final EIS for the Rosemont Copper project along with the Record of Decision."This is a standard part of what a regional EPA office does," said Rod Pace, Rosemont Copper's president and CEO. "It's part of the rigorous review process that leads to a robust final EIS required by the National Environmental Policy Act."The next steps for Rosemont Copper will be to finalize the air and aquifer protection permits by the State of Arizona, complete the Fish and Wildlife Service consultation process and develop the draft mitigation plans for species protection, mine reclamation and site closure. Much of the technical and analytical work to complete these next steps has already been completed and peer-reviewed, including hydrology studies and air modeling for the project site. The peer-review process has been on-going for more than two years."Our leadership has always understood that our project would receive the highest scrutiny from all local state and federal agencies," Mr. Pace added. "We want to build a mine, using the latest technologies and highest standards for conservation and protection of air and water resources. The extensive review of the draft EIS by the EPA, as well as all of the other commenting agencies, produces the input needed by the USFS to produce the most defendable final decision documentation possible."In addition to the final comments on the draft EIS, the EPA is continuing its role to provide comment on the ACOE's 404 permit application for Rosemont Copper. The EPA has submitted a 3b letter, which was issued last week, allowing the EPA to preserve their position for future discussions and negotiations as the final Section 404 permit documentation is drafted. An outline of the review/elevation process is included at the end of this press release.The Rosemont team is committed to work with the USFS, ACOE and EPA to ensure that all questions are answered fully and successfully and that the project meets all standards addressed by the more than 300 studies and technical reports conducted over the past six years.
And this is what it means:
Latin America’s average score continues to decrease, this year dropping from 34.3 to 29.6. This is a far cry from the 2005/06 survey, where the average score for that continent was 51.2. Venezuela, Guatemala, Honduras, and Bolivia pull the average down. There were also disappointments in Latin America for its top scorer, Chile, now at 18th, down from 8th last year, and its most improved jurisdiction, Colombia. In 2006/2007, Colombia scored 24.6 but climbed to 51.2 in last year’s survey. This year it scored 38.0, suggesting continued uncertainty in the mining community about policy and policy stability in Colombia.
Anyway, you should read the whole thing. Thanks given to reader MM for the headsup
UPDATE: the move from jail cell to hospital this morning was for an emergency, that we now know. Still no news on the rumour that's growing by the minute in Peru.
UPDATE 2: Rumours still rife about the state of Fujimori right now, but no official confirmation either way at present. Meanwhile this translated from this report in Peru's El Comercio published a few minutes ago:
"...the last two days he has had (cardio)vascular problems, according to his personal medic, member of congress Alejandro Aguinaga.
"His state of health has been complicated for the last two days, he's in evaluations....he has vascular problems which are not connected to his cancer. I'm currently with him" he said to El Comercio.
Aguinaga added that for the moment he could not give any more information.
UPDATE 4: It's 3:35pm, four hours after this episode began and we can now file the story under the "And Fidel isn't dead either" file. Turns out Fujimori had a swelling and loss of feeling in his left arm and he's now back at his normal place of abode (you can hardly call it a cell more like a nice room that just happens to lock from the outside, not the inside). Not very pleasant I'd imagine, but better than death as that could really ruin your plans for the weekend. So ends another interwebnetpipes round of rumours.
The recurring cancer of President Chávez
21st Feb 2012
One of the most valuable tools that we who try to bring health education to the public have is to take advantage of the illnesses of famous people. In these occasional posts at the blog, we have touched on diverse health problems of famous people (see archive). President Hugo Chávez has just announced his current state of health and this gives us an opportunity to look at what "recurrence of cancer" means".
What is a recurrence?When a patient has cancer and is treated with one of the three modes of treatments that exist; surgery, chemotherapy or radiotherapy, either on their own or in combination, the objective is to destroy the cancerous cells that may be in the body so that they never return. If a previously treated patient shows new growth of a tumour, that is called a recurrence.Recurrences can be in one of two forms; local (in the same location where the first tumour appeared) or at distance (in organs in other parts of the body). In the case of the second type, the recurrence is called a metastasis. Obviously, both types of recurrence are not good news for the patient. In general, the metastasis are more of a problem and more dangerous and the local recurrences are more problematic for the specific area. Even though recurrences are in no way an automatic death sentence, it is known that they greatly reduce the probability of a definitive cure. It's very true that nowadays many types of cancer have become chronic illnesses that can be controlled by diverse treatments over long periods of time.
The case of President ChávezIn a previous post we described what we knew about the operation and diagnostic facts about President Hugo Chávez of Venezuela in June 2011. It's important to note that due to the extremely hermetic circle around President Chávez we have never known exactly what type of cancer he is suffering.
Very recently, the President himself said, "...that he has a 2cm diameter lesion in the same place from where the tumour was extracted nearly one year ago." He said that he travelled last Saturday 18th February to Cuba for rigorous examinations where he was given this result. "I do not have metastasis anywhere", he said.
Firstly, let's do the count. From June 11th 2011, the date on which he had his operation, to this week, is only eight months and the objective of the operation was to totally eliminate the cancer. What's more, the objective to have given him chemotherapy which he received in Cuba and Venezuela was to eliminate any remnant of cancer, both in the location where the tumour started (in medicine it's called the primary location) and also in any other place in the body.Therefore, technically speaking (and as explained previously) the problem that Mr. Hugo Chávez has is not a metastasis, as he himself has affirmed, but a local recurrence. What needs to be done now is to confirm whether that the 2cm tumour that has been found in the check-up is a malignant tumour similar to the one extracted in the first operation.
There are cases in which the extracted tumour looks just like a recurrent cancerous tumour but is in fact a non-cancerous benign tumour (this is very frequent in certain testicular and ovarian cancers).
Progression of the cancerAnother important concept in these cases in which there is an apparent recurrence is to define what's calles the progression of the illness. Here we enter into the concept of time.Imagine that a patient is operated upon for cancer and that in less then three months (a time frame on which experts agree) a local or metastasis recurrence appears. This very early an precocious reappearance of the cancer would indicate that the illness is progressing, that's to say there is a progression of the cancer. Obviously, this is a very delicate situation because it indicates that the cancer was never eradicated and it will advance without control.
To sum up, President Chávez is showing a local recurrence of his cancer at only eight months from his original surgery. He has correctly said that he does not have a metastasis, but has a local recurrence. What's left to know is whether this 2cm tumour is cancerous, which will be known after the operation that he will undertake in Cuba that he announced. We'll keep you informed on this.
- Last night was the wrap up to Brazil's carnaval
- The hottest song in South America right now is "Ai se eu te pego" (translation "I'm going to catch you), which you hear everywhere, not just in Brazil.
- Neymar, new wunderkind of Brazil footy (eg scorer of world's best goal last year) is one of the guests of honour at the carnaval bash. That's him in the green up there.
- He's invited by the band to sing the song.
...the gold/copper ratio, three years:
And for true Carlin nuts (count me in, but you've guessed that already, right?), this link will take you to the whole 1996 HBO special show on one upload, all 62 minutes of it. Gotta love the interwebs.
It's the two percent. Positively Commie, no?
Deep thanks to reader J who sent this in.
IKN146 has just been sent to subscribers. It has over 14,300 words and it has photos of things, too.
Calling a spade a spade