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4/14/12

President Santos of Colombia: "Another Americas Summit with Cuba absent would be inacceptable"

Quote of the week, down this neck of the woods at least. Details here

UPDATE: Colombia Reports with English langauge report here

Dominic Frisby interviews Brent Cook

Link right here.

Or here

   


                             
  
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Five days of metals and miners: April 14th

The regular Saturday slot: The last five days' worth of action in the gold bullion ETF (GLD), the silver bullion ETF (SLV), the miner ETF (GDX), the junior miner ETF (GDXJ) and the copper ETF (COPX).


A mildly winning week for all lines bar silver (SLV), which makes for better viewing than the last what? Five? Although the edge was taken off the rally on Friday, it was good to see that there is still interest in the junior PMs (GDXJ), as after the kicking they've taken an induced coma was a possibility.

The main takeaway here? That gold is still the basis of it all.

4/13/12

The Friday OT: U2; All I want is you

Back in the days when U2 was an exciting band, not just a mega-massive band or an apparently important band (I'm told by musical media sources these days and therefore it must be true) or a vaguely annoying force for social change in some happier shinier world band, Bono Edge Adam and Larry released Rattle and Hum, both album and decent enough follow-the-band movie. It's not their best album (that's Achtung Baby) but there's enough in there to warrant your (re)visit.


The album finished with this and it's one of my fave U2 tracks possibly because of that alone, just the way it signed the album off so well. If you can think of a better final track on any album you've beaten me, plus the last three minutes is some of the best music that U2 ever laid down in the studio. Well I think so at least.

Fortuna (FVI.to) (FSM), First Majestic (FR.to) (AG), Endeavour (EDR.to) (EXK) over the week

I was sitting here a few minutes ago, wondering to myself just why Fortuna Silver (FVI.to) (FSM) was still looking laggardly these last five days, when I decided to plug a couple of other silver miners into a comparative chart for a bit of perspective. The ones chosen were First Majestic (FR.to) (AG) and Endeavour (EDR.to) (EXK) because those two, like FVI, as at the more serious end of the small silver producer sector (unlike the sillystuff end of the sector such as GPR.to). And lookie...

...this week to date they've performed exactly the same.

So I just thought I'd share the chart as food for your thoughts, too. If you care about smallcap junior silver miners in LatAm, anyway.

Moral: Stop being a dumbass with your own money

When your humble scribe receives not one, not two but five or six unsolicited mails from different people that say things like "Waddya think of XYZ.v?" or "Hey, maybe you should take a look at XYZ.v...." or "Dude, I've heard that XYZ.v is onto something good at Project ABC..." in the space of just a few days, it's something that raises a big fat windblown wavy red flag at IKN Nerve Centre™. It happens on occasion and it happened about two months ago when all of a sudden one of those "coincidence" flurries of mails all noting, suggesting or mentioning Goldex Resources (GDX.v) hit your author's mailbox. It was enough to get me checking a bit and I saw that the company was very small and had a couple of things on the go that included a drill program at a project called El Arco in Mexico as well as a early stage thing in Guatemala.

Ok fair enough. Then I noted that around the same time in 2012 GDX.v had been running financings at tiny 5c placement prices. And that Canaccord had picked up finder's fees. Then I dug a little more and found that this little gem of a quote in an earlier NR about El Arco....
"Goldex VP of exploration, Larry Kornze, formally the regional manager of Mexico and Central America for Barrick Gold has called EL Arco "The best undrilled property in the America's" and was part of the geology team responsible for the planning of the upcoming drill program."

...which got those red flags unfurled that much further (and not just for the bad grammar). The point I'm trying to get to here is that all of a sudden, and I don't know who or by what means, somebody decided to pump the hell out of this dog. Was it a newsletter? An e-mail list? A bullboard poster? I honestly don't know, but I do know that whoever was behind the pump got enough people's greed glands working because of that coincidental flurry of mails received from various apparently unconnected quarters and let's face it, if your author gets 5 mails asking about a tiny junior you can guarantee the message has got across to a vastly larger crowd of people.

The reason to feature a teeny tiny exploreco such as GDX.v on these humble pages isn't to laugh at its drill results from El Arco released today, because the way that "the best undrilled property in The America's (sic)" returned little more than dusters....
"Anomalous gold and silver values were intersected in the sampled quartz veins. Each sample measured 5 foot in length. 35 samples contained from 0.10 to 0.63 g/t Au and 2 samples contained in excess of 1g/t. 54 samples ranged from 1 g/t Ag up to 4 g/t and 3 samples had 5.8 g/t Ag up to maximum of 7.0g/t Ag. Remaining samples contained no appreciable results."

..... from its 13 holes program shouldn't be much of a surprise after the above preamble. We mention (pick on?) GDX.v today more as (yet another) warning to those investors that might get carried away on hearing extra special super duper inside information about a junior company and its fabbo property that nobody's heard of yet but is just bound to be the next Yanacocha/Voisey's Bay/Insert-Preferred-Example-Here. GDX.v is the topical example du jour, but the main point here is the sad fact that people constantly lie to you in order to remove your money from your back pocket and insert it into theirs. Another sad fact is that there are still far too many people who approach the junior mining market with a naive grin and a trusting smile, all ready to hear about some whizzo intel that will make them instant squillionaires that gets passed to them, completely free of charge, on a bullboard.

Hence the title of this post. Have a nice day.

The Summit of the Americas, Cartagena, Colombia, starts today

Cuba isn't there. Because of that Correa of Ecuador isn't there. Other heads of State of The Americas are there, but they really don't matter. 

Because the big news is that Shakira has arrived at The Summit of The Americas.



Humanity breathes a sigh of relief. Waka Waka.

Chart of the day is...

...Peru's Net International Currency Reserves (basically all US Dollars) since December 2009:


If you note an acceleration in 2012, you're not the only one. The BCRP (Peru Central Bank) has been buying dollars hand-over-fist (around $5.5Bn in the first three months of 2012) in order to stop its country currency, the Nuevo Sol (PEN) from appreciating too rapidly. At under S/2.66 to the dollar it's still at a 15 year high this morning, but that's not going stop Velarde and company from buying up the imported cash and trying hard to keep the appreciation orderly.

UPDATE: Here's an extra chart that shows the breakdown of holdings.
 

Deposits are US dollar bank accounts in the Peru system held by citizens, companies etc. Then "securities" is the big change and that's basically the BCRP buying direct at market. The other contributors are tiny stuff.

4/12/12

Colombia's oil production growth picks up again in March 2012

While others prefer to quote outdated figures, we at IKN remain shiny smack bang up to date and further to our post last month, update numbers for Colombia's oil production.

The news is that Colombia produced 950,939 barrels per day in March, up nicely from the disappointing Feb'12 numbers and the second best month on record, though still under the 1m bbl/d mark that President Juanma has had his sights on for months. 

And in the same style as last month, we also check in on the Year-over-Year (YoY) percentage change vis this chart:


This time it's up by 7.22%. Still not rampant as before, but corner perhaps turned.

Dear Serafino...

...you're welcome, thanks and call again soon.



(following up on  yesterday's post, of course)

Ex-CEO Jeffrey Pontius piloted International Tower Hill (ITH.to) (THO) for years...

...but has now decided on the pieces of silver. More than thirty, too:

Filing
Date
Transaction
Date
Insider Name Ownership
Type
Securities Nature of transaction # or value acquired or disposed of Unit
Price
Apr 9/12 Apr 5/12 Pontius, Jeffrey A. Direct Ownership Common Shares 10 - Disposition in the public market -13,000 $3.94
Apr 9/12 Apr 5/12 Pontius, Jeffrey A. Direct Ownership Common Shares 10 - Disposition in the public market -2,000 $3.95
Apr 9/12 Apr 5/12 Pontius, Jeffrey A. Direct Ownership Common Shares 10 - Disposition in the public market -12,000 $3.97
Apr 9/12 Apr 5/12 Pontius, Jeffrey A. Direct Ownership Common Shares 10 - Disposition in the public market -2,000 $3.98
Apr 9/12 Apr 5/12 Pontius, Jeffrey A. Direct Ownership Common Shares 10 - Disposition in the public market -16,000 $4.00
Apr 9/12 Apr 5/12 Pontius, Jeffrey A. Direct Ownership Common Shares 10 - Disposition in the public market -5,000 $4.01
Apr 9/12 Apr 4/12 Pontius, Jeffrey A. Direct Ownership Common Shares 10 - Disposition in the public market -5,000 $4.01
Apr 9/12 Apr 4/12 Pontius, Jeffrey A. Direct Ownership Common Shares 10 - Disposition in the public market -10,000 $4.01
Apr 9/12 Apr 4/12 Pontius, Jeffrey A. Direct Ownership Common Shares 10 - Disposition in the public market -10,000 $4.00
Apr 9/12 Apr 4/12 Pontius, Jeffrey A. Direct Ownership Common Shares 10 - Disposition in the public market -15,000 $4.01
Apr 9/12 Apr 4/12 Pontius, Jeffrey A. Direct Ownership Common Shares 10 - Disposition in the public market -15,000 $3.97
Apr 9/12 Apr 4/12 Pontius, Jeffrey A. Direct Ownership Common Shares 10 - Disposition in the public market -40,000 $3.97
Apr 9/12 Apr 4/12 Pontius, Jeffrey A. Direct Ownership Common Shares 10 - Disposition in the public market -10,000 $3.97
Apr 9/12 Apr 4/12 Pontius, Jeffrey A. Direct Ownership Common Shares 10 - Disposition in the public market -15,000 $3.98
Apr 9/12 Apr 4/12 Pontius, Jeffrey A. Direct Ownership Common Shares 10 - Disposition in the public market -10,000 $3.97
Apr 9/12 Apr 2/12 Pontius, Jeffrey A. Direct Ownership Common Shares 10 - Disposition in the public market -3,000 $4.23
Apr 9/12 Apr 2/12 Pontius, Jeffrey A. Direct Ownership Common Shares 10 - Disposition in the public market -5,300 $4.22
Apr 9/12 Apr 2/12 Pontius, Jeffrey A. Direct Ownership Common Shares 10 - Disposition in the public market -7,500 $4.21
Apr 9/12 Apr 2/12 Pontius, Jeffrey A. Direct Ownership Common Shares 10 - Disposition in the public market -200 $4.25
Apr 9/12 Apr 2/12 Pontius, Jeffrey A. Direct Ownership Common Shares 10 - Disposition in the public market -4,000 $4.26





That's 200,000 shares dumped at....ooooh...let's round-number it at $4 a pop Jeff, yeah? Y'know, if there's one thing we at IKN have always admired about the trading displayed by Cardero Group directors, it's their impeccably good timing.

Here endeth the lesson.

The Doe Run (Run Run) the Doe Run (Run) Peru affair comes to a head

Today's the day when we find out how the current chapter of the ongoing clustafark known to the world as Doe Run Peru at La Oroya will be decided. The creditors' meeting happens today and the government of Peru, via its Mining Minister Jorge Merino, as head creditor (36.9% of debt held, 36.9% of voting rights) gets to lay down to law (or roll over in the time-honoured lilly-livered Peru government manner).

Anyway, we'll see if Peru has grown some cojones by around midday and for the time being, leave you with this.




UPDATE: Oh what pussies! Doe Run will aparently "enter into a period of liquidation" according to Merino a few minutes ago. Yeah right, keep kicking that can down the road, dumbasses.

Chart of the day is...

...a scientific diagram...

...to accompany this news release:
Vancouver, British Columbia – April 11, 2012 – Batero Gold Corp. (“the Company”) (TSX-V: BAT) wishes to announce that it has entered into an agreement with Raymond James Ltd. and Cormark Securities Inc., (collectively the "Underwriters"), pursuant to which the Underwriters have agreed to purchase special warrants (the "Special Warrants") to be issued by way of a private placement, at a price (the “Issue Price”) to be determined in the context of the market (the "Offering"). The Company has also granted the Underwriters an option, giving notice to the Company at any time for up to 30 days following the closing date (as herein after defined), to acquire additional Special Warrants, at the Issue Price, to cover over-allotments, if any.

Each Special Warrant will entitle the holder to acquire, upon exercise and for no additional consideration one unit (a “Unit”), consisting of one common share (“Common Share”) in the capital of the Company and one-half of one common share purchase warrant (each whole warrant, a “Warrant”). Each Warrant shall entitle the holder to acquire an additional Common Share (a “Warrant Share”) during the period ending 24 months following the closing of the Offering.

The Company has agreed to use its reasonable best efforts to obtain, within 60 days after the closing of the Offering (the “Qualification Deadline”), a receipt for a final short form prospectus qualifying the distribution etc etc


continues here

UPDATE 11:05est: Just been priced at 65c, with 7.7m units under the deal and 2.5m to cover over-allotments. In other words, 10.2m units, cos "over-allotment" on a best efforts placement is just word babble and means nothing. No news on whether Canaccord's Nicholas CampbellSoup is adjusting his $2.20 price target. 

4/11/12

Serafino Iacono's holdings in Gran Colombia Gold (GCM.to)

Your humble scribe read with interest this NR out of Gran Colombia Gold (GCM.to) yesterday which announced that our old pally pal pal, Serafino Iacono, had bought a whole boatload of shares in the beaten down gold junior at which our old pally pal pal is co-Chair. Here's the main part of the NR pasted out for your continued delight and enjoyment:

TORONTO , April 10, 2012 /CNW/ - Gran Colombia Gold Corp. (TSX: GCM, GCM.WT, GCM.WT.A) announces that, since the blackout period ended on April 2, 2012 following the release of the Company's 2011 financial results, co-chairman, Serafino Iacono, has bought a total of 2,022,890 shares in the company at an average price of $0.367 per share.
The purchases bring Iacono's total holdings of common shares of Gran Colombia to 7,256,416 or 1.90 percent of the outstanding common shares of the Company. Continues here
Although 7 1/4m shares is a pretty meagre slice of the whole of the blown-out share structure at GCM.to, on the other hand it's still un huevo de pelpas*. So being the nosey little git that he is, your humble scribe went to find out more about the breakdown of shares held by pally pal pal Serafino** and this chart helps things no end.

To explain a bit, our pally pal pal Serafino** holds his shares of GCM.to in three ways. Firstly, direct holdings under his own name. Then indirectly via a holding company called "Ice Rose Holdings Inc.", finally in another indirect holding company named "Taribo Holdings". And as you can see, pally pal pal Serafino** has been adding via all three avenues.
  • At the end of 2010, he held a total of 2,518,041 shares of GCM.to. For the record, at that time GCM.to traded at $2.18 so his holding was worth $5,489,329. And thirty-eight cents.
  • At the end of 2011, he'd added plenty to his pile and held a total of 5,019,526 shares of GCM.to. For the record, at that time GCM.to traded at $0.52 (oops!) so his holding was worth $2,610,153. And fifty-two cents. It's worth noting however that 980,985 of those extra shares came from the mid-2011 merger that saw Medoro Resources move back into the Gran Colombia structure. Serafino** didn't buy those shares, he simply saw his holding in Medoro become GCM shares.
  • Now April 2012 (right up to date!) and he holds a total of 7,256,416 shares of GCM.to. As GCM.to current trades at 36c (more oops!) his holding is worth $2,612,309 at current market prices. Oh, and seventy-six cents.

And yes indeed! It's good news all round! For one thing, his GCM.to position is now worth a full two thousand one hundred and fifty-six dollars more than it did at the end of 2011. You might think it a slight problem that in order to raise the value of his share position by $2,156 he's had to spend $831,920 (and ninety two cents) but that'd just be picky and fussy on your part!

More good news is that pally pal pal Serafino** clearly intended yesterday's NR as a signal to the market. After all, if he bothers to launch an NR about the shares he buys he wants everyone to know just how confident he is about the upside (though it is a little strange that he never published an NR from Pacific Rubiales (PRE.to) while he was selling ten of millions of dollars of shares, but it probably just slipped his mind at the time). 

Of course, there are those among you that might criticize and point out that he also bought 2,501,485 shares in 2011 (if you included the Medoro shares, which were transferred while GCM.to traded at around $1) and paid $2,128,028 for them all, which means he paid an average of 85.07c per share in 2011. Those of you out there in IKNreaderland that might criticize and poke fun at Serafino** might even try to suggest that he added his 2.5m shares of GCM.to last year because he thought they'd go up, too. And you'd perchance dare to point out that Serafino's** track record as a gold spec player hasn't been that stellar so far and that, just maybe, he should have stuck to the oil & gas world. BUT ALL YOU GUYS WOULD JUST LOOK SILLY IF YOU EVEN SUGGESTED THAT, ACTUALLY. SO THERE, NEE NER NEE NER.

So hats off to Serafino** we say! After all, potential shareholders of GCM.to now know that if the stock sinks by another 50% or more by this time next year, at least there'll be someone willing to take them off your hands. DYODD dude.

*As they say in Argentina...if you care enough it translates as "a lot of shares"
** Errr...you don't mind if I call you Serafino do you, Serafino? After all it's a nice name. What's more, it's so much nicer than the way I'd normally address you.

Mo' JAG

And while we're on the subject of being diddled about (and after yesterday's post that came with important updates), looks as though the market has finally given up on Jaguar Mining (JAG) (JAG.to), the bullshitters that surround the stock and its incessant rumourmill:


What? You believed Reuters and its "two Chinese dudes told us, so it must be true" story? Just goes to show that even the better end of the newswire world gets taken for suckers on occasion.

And they wonder why IKN calls BS on so many of these things...

Sunward (SWD.to) and Canaccord

Cute chart here:

We hear Canaccord is doing what it does best, i.e. farting around with the market and dropping big chunks through all bids. They got it down to $1.38, but the bid is already back to $1.80.

UPDATE: IIROC is now calling them false trades (or trades in error if you like) and they'll now get rolled back. Funny how it happens to Canaccord so often, innit?

Video of today's Tsunami wave in Indonesia

Right here:



It's scary. The people there watching the thing should have been running, not taking video shots. In the end it doesn't look like it hurt anyone but you have to wonder what happened on other parts of the coast where the beaches have less incline and no tree cover.

UPDATE: Turns out the above was a falsely labelled youtube video of the Sri Lanka tsunami of a few years ago. It's therefore been removed by your author who forgot that there are too many dumbasses posting videos on youtube to count

Endeavour Silver (EDR.to) (EXK) 1q12 production numbers

The NR out today carrying the 1q12 figures here

Silver production development chart here:


Gold production development chart here:
(note that Guanajuato's revenue mix is less than 60% silver and more than 40% gold these days, using $30/oz Ag and $1500/oz Au).

Inventories carried here:


EDR carried inventory
Qtr inventory Au Oz inventory Ag Oz
4q12 5,400 980,000
1q12 3,927 925,100
source: EDR filings

Overall personal impression: Not sparkling numbers but not bad, either. Best quick summing up, "in line". I'll be interested in the cash costs figure EDR posts come the 1q12 results day though, as the company is guiding at $6/oz Ag for 2012, post Au credit. So on the one hand you have that boosted gold production number helping keep things under control, on the other you have the general cost creep in the sector.If EDR can keep to $6/oz I'll be more interested in the company, until then no position being taken.

Chart of the day is...

...Brazil piecheck.


Gabriel Elizondo (on Twitter here) does a great job of covering Brazil for Al Jazeera. He informed us yesterday that Brazil Health Ministry figures, just released, show 49% of Brazilians are now classed as overweight, up six points from the 2006 number. And you thought they were all soccer player physiques or lithe Ipanema garotas, didn't you?

We leave you to reflect on the benefits development as a nation.

4/10/12

Shandong finally, FINALLY about to put a bid in for Jaguar Mining (JAG) (JAG.to)

But nowhere near the $10/share that Titcomb wanted to trigger his bonus payments. Now there's a wild surprise....

Anyway, JAG already up 18% on semi-confirmed jungledrums (3 IKN sources so far, enough to throw out this post at least). To be honest, it's just further proof that the Chinese act more like gringos every day. They'll buy anything.
dyodd

UPDATE: I don't know how much you care about this, but a separate source just mentioned to this desk that Shandong is not involved with any bid for JAG. The source in question has given over an anecdotal but has been and still seems to be closely plugged into the affair. Probably worth disclosing at this time that your humble scribe has no position in JAG either, and that's not going to change. A simple interested observer here.

UPDATE 2: Weds morning. Oh looky, another mail arrives from a separate quarter saying Shandong isn't bidding for JAG. Y'know what, seems to me there's a whole mountain of information/disinformation doing circuits about this. Best advice is from this point onwards, take everything with a pinch of salt.

Anyone out there got 'Mexico Mike' Kachanovsky's mail address?

If so, send him this will you? Below is from the Golden Minerals (AUMN) NR this morning, talking about that resource that used to be owned by ECU Silver. You remember? Yeah, that one the Mexico Mike twisting, deceitful dumbass scumbag used to wax lyrical over about because he was getting paid to pump the company.
The Company now expects to complete an updated NI 43-101 compliant resource estimate for the Velardeña Operations during the second quarter 2012. In line with the Company's emphasis on the higher classes of mineral resources (measured and indicated), management and their qualified advisors have decided to narrow the definition of the lowest resource class (inferred resources) to include only that material meeting strict and readily-justifiable geostatistical and conservative geologic criteria. Because of this, we expect to report a smaller inferred resource base at Velardeña compared to the inventory carried in the past. Management and their advisors do not believe that this stricter interpretation of inferred resources reflects upon the quality of the resource at Velardeña or the likely longevity of the operations.

Breaking Batero Gold (BAT.v) news! Canaccord and The Dollar Vigilante issue joint statement of apology

In an incredible turn of events that may mark a new era of transparency and accountability in the otherwise murky, self-serving and scandal ridden world of junior mining company promotion from interested brokerage parties and paid promoters, today Canaccord Adams issued a joint statement with The Dollar Vigilante regarding the recent events in Batero Gold (BAT.v) and subsequent statements from the two houses in question. The press release confirmed that.....


Nah, not really. I'm just messin' with yaz :-)

Anyway, further reading on the subject in this IKN post, dated March 14th. My how time flies, is it just a month since BAT.v was hot topic of conversation? Strange how it's all gone quiet, innit?

UPDATE: Sheer coincidence but an interesting oddity today. Via a headsup from kind twitterer Damon, check out how the Batero pinksheet listing, BELDF.pk, is trading today.


That spike down to eleven cents (O RLY? yeah really) a few minutes ago was on just 1k shares traded and the main Canadian listing is trading at 68c right now.  But just shows that if someone really really wants out of something they'll get out at any price. (quick addendum few minutes later: back up to 70c on another 1k trade now, it didn't last lone).

The pro-mine lobby begins to fight back in Argentina

This links to an article published in several outlets in the Rio Negro province of Argentina recently, with the thrust of the piece about how a lot of irrational fears have grown up around the whole subject of mining recently and what the reality is (from a pro-mining perspective at least) of the sector. It's hardly coincidence that this public awareness campaign comes right after the creation of the OFEMI agreement between 10 provinces of Argentina looking to promote the benefits of mining in to their populations. Here's an extract (translation Otto) from the note that I particularly liked (as it was well written) on cyanide use in mining.
Regarding sodium cyanide and/or potassium cyanide
In our country [Argentina] cyanide is not produced, in which case all we use is imported. Between just 11% and 13% of the cyanide imported per year,  highly diluted in water (1% to 5%, or 10kg to 50kg for every 1,000 litres of water) is used in modern mining in Argentina to obtain gold and silver. The other 87% of imported cyanide is fully consumed by national industries in the production of medicines, paper, paints, colourings, glue, cosmetics, metallurgy, galvanizations, insecticides, fertilizers, pesticides, textiles, nylon, plastics and even fine wines for the export market, amongst other uses. These are uses that have been established for decades in factories, laboratories, workshops, wineries etc and at the heart of the most densely industrial complexes in the country, all without making a single headline to date of having caused an environmental or human catastrophe. In fact, cyanide oxidizes when it is exposes to the air or to other oxidants, it decomposes and does not persist. Although it is a deadly poison if ingested in sufficient dosage, it does not cause chronic problems for health or for the environment when it is present in the low concentrations indicated above.
What is noticeable, and it's necessary to underline this, is that the exact same substance is considered totally innocuous to the life and the belongings of citizens living in geographically dense population areas in the country, given that it has not raised any noticeable resistance up to now and that nobody protests or shouts to the heavens about this situation. However, strangely, when the very same cyanide is used in mining at deposits located is the most inhospitable and unpopulated deserted parts of the country and managed using high technology controls, this same compound is transformed, according to those opposed to mining, into a terrifying beast that pollutes, causes illnesses, and kills.

continues here

A Flash update...

...went out to subscribers about an hour before the bell today, Tuesday April 10th.

Chart of the day is...

...copper, dailies:

dyodd

4/9/12

I've grown to hate the first few minutes of the Monday morning market...

...over the last couple of years, mainly due to the anxiety feeling that comes in the hours between reco'ing a new stock on the Sunday and seeing what it does the next day. The single overriding emotion is one of "oh lordy, I hope people don't pile in" and over the years of The IKN Weekly, I've begged, cajoled, rationally explained (or at least tried to), berated, sneered and attempted every tactic that comes to my limited mind to get those who read its pages to realize that piling into a junior mining stock at the first opportunity is a really dumb, dumber and dumbass thing to do. So today I'm really happy, relieved, glad that the new stock we reco'd yesterday in IKN153 hasn't suddenly jumped 10% or seen a massive influx of early orders. Why that might be is probably one of these three reasons:

1) The message has got through.
2) Because it's still a way crappy market, momo artists still feel as though they've had seven bells kicked out of them, there's no appetite for risk and stupid pissant lil juniors miners aren't on the menu. Who needs all that malarkey when there's AAPL in da house, right?
3) Readers have decided that I'm full of shit.

In a perfect world all three of those will apply in equal measure right now. But whatever it might be, consider me happy that the new reco hasn't flown at the bell as for just one thing, this one's for collecting over the months and not flipping over the hours.

Three points on Radius Gold (RDU.v)

1) Radius (RDU.v) has a market cap of $25m, as per Friday's close.

2) With that in mind, you gotta wonder what this $20m (plus extras) deal with B2Gold (BTO.to) is going to do to its share price this week.

3) Subscribers, check IKN151 (dated March 25th 2012) final section. To remind, here's how that piece ended:
How an eventual deal may be cut or sliced between BTO and RDU.v is yet to be seen, but a situation where a potentially too-heavy royalty is bought off in exchange for a hefty wedge of cash that would allow RDU to go and do its own things in Nicaragua and Guatemala (it has other irons in the fire in both places) could probably be cut, what with Ridgway (and his partner in many deals Mario Szotlender) always good for a session of dealmaking.

Doe Run, La Oroya, political risk in Peru

For those of you who need to keep up to date with mining and political risk factors in Peru and speak Spanish, we recommend this post over at the evergood Huanca York Times (great blog name) that has embedded the segment on Peru's top rated Sunday night journalism show, Cuarto Poder. It was all about the situation at the La Oroya smelter owned by Doe Run Peru. You get the Peru enviro and mines ministries, you get the workers, you get the position of Doe Run from the horse's mouth too. Cuarto Poder is one of the most viewed TV programs of any type in Peru and for the simple reason that it does very good work (unlike much of the crud found on Peruvian TV).

For those of you who make even a part of their living by analysis of mining and political risk factors in Peru and don't speak Spanish, how much longer do you think you can get away with your charade?

Nevado del Ruiz Colombia: "High probability of eruption"

Ah cannae hold her cap'n, she's gonna blow.

The alert level for the Nevado del Ruiz volcano in Colombia was moved from orange to red today, with emergency plans swinging into action and contingencies, escape routes and plans being explained to all locals (around 100,000 people live close enough to be considered at risk from this. This is the same volcano that went up in 1985 and although the eruption then was relatively small, it was enough to melt a large percentage of the snow and ice cap which in turn caused mudslides (lahars) that killed 23,000 people and wiped an entire town off the map, so it's not one to be taken lightly.


The IKN Weekly, out now

IKN153 has just been sent to readers and just for a change it's quite a good one this week, or at least I think so.