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Which will be worth more at end 2015?

9/15/12

Five days of metals and miners; September 15th

Our regular Saturday slot of the last five days' worth of action in the gold bullion ETF (GLD), the silver bullion  ETF (SLV), the miner ETF (GDX), the junior miner ETF (GDXJ) and the copper ETF (COPX).


Today's critique is done in but one word: Whoosh

9/14/12

The Friday OT: The Who/Elton John; Pinball Wizard.

Magnificent, showstopper of a scene from Tommy:



Things to look out for:
  • Elton John's acting, which was really good in fact. Yup folks, there was a time when Elton John did have a contribution to make.
  • The oldschool cheesy audience directions, straight out of the 70s. 
  • The boots. Of course, the boots
  • Entwistle playing one bass but then putting a totally different one thru the speaker later.
  • Keith Moon. Being Keith Moon.

But it's the song, the song, the song that's 100% kick-ass, nearly 40 years later. Hope you enjoy.

Twitter for jr miners redux: A timely example from ATAC Resources (ATC.v)

By way of good timing after yesterday's post on the matter and a good example of the braindead way in which junior mining companies do (perhaps 'don't' would be better) use Twitter and score enormous fails in their investor relations departments (as well as employ them), here by happy coincidence is something that happened on my Twitter just today. ATAC Resources Ltd. (ATC.v) decided to follow my Twitter account:


So exactly as explained yesterday I went over to check out ATC.v's Twitter page and here's what was waiting for me:


This company has followed 5370 people and has 5000+ followers, which means they have an awful lot of people who never use their account on board, just followed back in monkeystyle when ATC turned up and since then have never bothered to look. Then the IR dumbasses have managed to send out the sum total of two tweets since the account was opened and both of them were corporate news releases, even though they proudly call their Twitter page "a point of contact" between the company and its stakeholders.

Zero engagement
Zero interaction
No attempt to start an exchange with any of those 5000 apparent followers
Zero effort from the three martini brigade living in up in The Yukon

 Perhaps the ATC.v IR department's attitude to its job helps explain this type of share price performance:


Twitter or not, these people are a prime example of IR dumbasses that simply Do. Not. Have. A. Clue about the 21st century and its changes. Bad luck on them for choosing today to follow me, but bad luck for all those ATC.v shareholders paying these people's salaries, too.

The überdog end of the junior mining sector is already running private placements...

...and taking away all potential upside from their long-suffering shareholders in exchange for raising cash to pay their own monthly salaries. Start with the ridiculous Golden Minerals (AUMN) (AUM.to), the waste of time pumped by Adam Graf (which nearly rhymes with dumbass; coincidence???) run by stupidly overpaid, underperforming hucksters that's suddenly decided that it needs $31m in your cash in its bank account, then tick off a veritable plethora of junior mining companies all desperate and grabbing with both hands at this Bernanke-induced relief.

Avoid any junior that runs placements at the first possible opportunity after frittering away all the cash they had before (which was also your cash converted into their salaries) on mooseland because with very few exceptions they have not, do not or will never give a flying fuck about the retail shareholder, period. If you want leverage to the new rebound and upside in junior names, go for those with good looking balance sheets. And finally, if you don't know what a good looking balance looks like or where to look to find them, stick to AAPL or FB as trading media and stop farting around in juniors and getting serially raped by the parasites who'll suck you to dry until the very day you die. The end.

A Flash update...

...was sent to subscribers about 15 minutes ago, Friday morning pre-open. The subject is basically thoughts on how your humble scribe is going to position his cash in the wake of the Ben thingy yesterday and the actions are basically adjustments to presently held positions.

Chart of the day is...

...copper, which is having a good September by anyone's standards.


9/13/12

FOMC seismograph

Looks about 4.8mag to me:


Read the Fed blurb right here. So what comes after "buy the rumour", ladies and gentlemen?




Talisman Energy (TLM) (TLM.to) "is retired" from Peru

First the CEO leaves Talisman (TLM.to) (TLM) on Monday Sep 10th and now today TLM announces that it's bailing on its Peru operations. The company says that despite finding hydrocrabons in its Lot 64 development in the Peruvian Amazon jungle region, "after careful consideration" they're still bailing. They also say they're proud of their community relations record, which just goes to show how shameless oil companies are these days as TLM is the very same company accused of attempting genocide and dividing communities by the locals where they've been working so they can fake all the pride they like, because this news will be greeted by celebrations in the Amazon basin, not sadness

The moral of this story is a 21st century one: Treat people like crap, get booted out. Period.

Twitter instructions for dumbass IR employees at junior mining companies

I've noticed that junior mining companies have begun to discover Twitter, as more and more of them have popped up on my follow list recently. So guys, here's why you're failing miserably at this new way of getting your message across.

1) You never engage with your audience and you are boring as hell. Most of you think setting that up a Twitter account is just another way of getting your news releases disseminated. 

2) You think it's a privilege for us to follow you. It's like, "Oh, we're "XYZ.v and look everyone, we've arrived! Please form an orderly queue." Do you honestly think that I want to read NRs for pleasure, not just work? 

3) Please return immediately to the 20th century. Even though it's not rocket science 95% of you don't understand Twitter, so go back to your comfort zones and stop bothering us (your potential new shareholders). 

Therefore as a public service IKN is going to explain to you IR neanderthals how you can make Twitter work for you and, most importantly, gain both a big advantage on your competitors (cos let's face it, there are thousands of you out there trying to peddle your moose pastures and get people's attention) as well as build a good sized audience of loyal followers who might just turn into loyal shareholders one of these days (hey you never know). And it's not that difficult, because you can boil it down to one word:

Engage

Twitter is a social medium, with the emphasis on social. This means you have to be just that....y'know, for once in your lives you're going to have to pretend you give a damn about your shareholders, instead of the normal hackneyed "oh b-b-b-but our shareholders are our greatest priority" bullshit lip-service that comes straight out of IR101 handbook but is rarely if ever backed up by even the slightest amount of sincerity. So you have to be a person, not a corporation. When I as a Twitter user am on the site and looking at my stream, apart from the direct news services I choose to follow (BBC News, WSJ, La Nacion Argentina, Reuters etc etc) I like to think that there's a person on the other end. So START a conversation, don't wait for it to happen. Twitter is a quid-pro-quo situation and not a one-way stream so let's be clear here, if you are not interesting enough people will not follow you and anything you write on Twitter will be read by nobody. Your job is to gain followers, not think that just the act of you following me will oblige me to follow you. 

IT DOESN'T WORK LIKE THIS: 

1) You follow me
2) I get a message through from Twitter along the lines of "Moose Pasture Ltd (XYZ.v) is now following you on Twitter."
3) I click on their Twitter name and check out what they've been writing recently. It's either empty (i.e. they've never used Twitter to say a single thing) or it's wall-to-wall NR links with zero human input
4) My eyes roll, I think "another boring fart jr miner, I'm not following back"
5) From that moment, anything you write in the future will never be read by me. Ever.

THE ABOVE HAPPENS 95% OF THE TIME WHEN I SEE A CORPORATE ACCOUNT FOLLOW ME. HOWEVER, IT DOES WORK LIKE THIS BELOW AROUND 5% OF THE TIME:

1) You follow me
2) I get a message through from Twitter along the lines of "Moose Pasture Ltd (XYZ.v) is now following you on Twitter."
3) I click on their Twitter name and check out what they've been writing recently. To my surprise it's an account being run by a real human being that makes an effort. Yes, there are NR links and company promo material, but that's ok because they're interspersed with comments about things you've been read on Twitter or the web, answers and exchanges between you and other people, perhaps re-tweets of things you liked and want to share with others. Some of your "real tweets" are about your company, some are about the sector in which you operate (e.g. thoughts on the price of silver, a recent political development, whatever),  some are you answering questions from shareholders or potential shareholder, some are even you having a friendly off-topic or semi off topic conversation with another person
4) My eyes open wide, I think, "Hey, a junior mining twitter acccount that's actually worth following for a change" and I follow you back.
5) From that moment, what you write in the future will be read by me.



Yes, you can promote your company but not all the time. Yes please, feel free to offer up the latest news release, a link to the new corporate presentation, the occasional reminder of the qualities of your exploration deposit, your stellar quarterly results a few weeks later etc etc. But the story about Twitter is that you have to engage, put in a bit of effort (yeah, sorry about cutting into that three martini lunch you had planned you lazy dumbass waste of space far too used to the cushy life you've dug out for yourself) talk to people and use Twitter as a way of attracting people to you, not a way of sending out information to them.

And really, that's about it. Be interesting and people will be interested. Be boring and we'll never care about you, your company or what you've been doing recently, but we will care about your competitor and read his stuff because he understood Twitter before you did.

UPDATE: IKN recommends the comments left by Iwnattos below this post and also below the Quinton/Cambone post as good reading material on the subject, too.


Copper versus iron ore (a China thing)

Andy Home of Reuters files a good one here today that finishes like this:


"Is copper too high or is iron ore too low?   
In all probability the answer is yes and yes."


It also has this chart linked:


dyodd, dude

Chart of the day is...

...the US Dollar index, last five days:

The baseline chart to watch on any Benday and especially today's Benday

9/12/12

Quinton Hennigh and Daniela Cambone do Denver

To make a refreshing change from Brent Cook's fizzog, here's his collegue Quinton Hennigh getting the Q&A from Daniela Cambone (who has a face that's more difficult to tire of)

Trevali Mining (TV.to): Errr, I win again

On February 1st 2012, in the post "Trevali (TV.to): Sadly, nobody took me up on the bet offer" in which we laughed our tragic and ironic laughter about TV.to's promised 1q12/2q12 start-up date snafu, your humble scribe wrote:

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx


Here's what we wrote in November 2011 regarding the Cardero Group's Trevali Resources (TV.to):
"...the Santander mine is now due to go online Q1 or Q2 of 2012, according to latest company literature. Anyone fancy taking a bet on this Cardero Group "fact"?"

Here's what TV.to says today, Feb 1st 2012:

"Commissioning of the 'new' Santander Plant 
is currently scheduled for Q2-Q3 2012."

Errr....I win. Not even finished Q1 yet and they knock back the timeline further, but it is unfortunate to report that the permabull fools who worship at the feet of Henk van Alphen and genuflect at the mere mention of his name didn't take me up on my bet offer. 

As for the real timeline here, the best guess is that Q3 is still pushing luck hard and 2013 is more like it (just five years after the time they first said Santander would be operational...but hey...who's counting?).

CONTINUES HERE


xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx


VANCOUVER, BRITISH COLUMBIA--(Marketwire - Sept. 12, 2012) - Trevali Mining Corporation ("Trevali" or the "Company") announces that construction at its Santander Zinc-Lead-Silver Mine in west-central Peru is progressing well and commissioning is anticipated in the fourth quarter. continues here

Well there's a shocker for you. So much for 3q12 start-up guys, now anyone fancy taking a bet on that 4q12 promise from the TV.to serial bullshit merchants?


Oh yeah, Great Basin Gold (GBG) (GBG.to) haha toldyaso dumbasses etc etc

August 16th, we laughed for the umpteenth time at the dumbasses that bought Great Basin Gold (GBG) (GBG.to) (a disaster dog that we've laughed at for years fwiw) sneered at the self-serving nature of RBC Capital Markets and all those corrupt houses of greed that force-feed juicy commish bought deals on their clients (who if they aren't totally brain dead should now be ex-clients), guffawed at the continue Hope™ placed in a turnaround at the company.

Last night we got this:
VANCOUVER , Sept. 11, 2012 /CNW/ - Great Basin Gold Ltd. ("Great Basin Gold" or the "Company"), (TSX: GBG; NYSE MKT: GBG; JSE: GBG) announces that it has suspended operations at the Company's Burnstone mine located in the Witwatersrand Basin of South Africa as at September 11, 2012 . The suspension of all development and production activities follows a recommendation from the Company's strategic review special committee, the formation of which was announced on August 15, 2012 . The recommendation is based on the Company's inability to continue funding the working capital required by Burnstone to achieve cash flow breakeven, which would have yada yada continues here

And hey, let's check on what company CEO Lou van Vuuren said at the 2q12 ConfCall less than one month ago as regards Burntstone (in his prepared notes too, not part of the Q&A):
"Burnstone... will be a different mine once the required permanent infrastructure is in place as it will finally allow us to really start building up the production."
Well yeah that's true, it's now a different mine than before. It's freakin' well closed and this new head honcho is as pathetic as Freddy Dipshitnaar ever was. Class action, anyone?

Anyway, expect the stock to go waaaaaaay further South today once those markets open up (one hour from the time this post is being written). 

Four weeks at First Majestic (AG) (FR.to)


When these officer dudes at First Majestic (FR.to) (AG) hit the sell button on their stock, they do it in style. In less than four weeks FR insiders have sold about 460,000 shares at or around $20 a piece, with nearly all of the shares newly exercised options at far lower strike prices. Here's a list of the trades made (click to enlarge, stare at names of rich people, etc) taken from the useful tracking site Canadian Insider:


So let's see....hmmmm....460k shares at $20 a pop is....errrr....a very lot of money, by my detailed calculations. Now, is it possible that they know something you don't about the near-term future of First Majestic Silver? Nah, surely not...

Chart of the day is...

...gold, hourly candles:


Because it's moving nicely higher this morning. Something about some meeting in The USA and policy decisions to be made, perhaps? Anyway, Ben will have his new iPhone5 (or whatever it's going to be called) as a freebie by then so he'll just ask SuperSiri what to do.


9/11/12

Punchline Resources (PUNL) is a scam

Are we clear? There are more red flags on this than Tiananmen Square (no cash at bank, $1.3m in liabilities, BS option deal, brand new name change, etc etc etc) but to name just one, our newly minted CEO Ramzan Savji (who just happens to be the only officer of the company) bought 30m shares of this company for $30,000 a few weeks ago (i.e. 60% of all shares out) and according to today's close they're worth over $45m....if he can sell them at that price, anyway. Beginning to notice anything?



It has an option on a worthless piece of dirt in Nevada, nothing in the bank, a new $1m loan from some shady offshore and is being pumped in a classic manner by the scumbag bucket shops and boiler rooms. And if you're stupid enough to buy into this classic illegal pump and dump scheme without checking the SEC filings first, you deserve to lose your money because it took your humble scribe about five minutes of click'n'read to see through this bullshit. Are we clear on that too?

Avoid this worthless piece of junk like the veritable plague.

UPDATE: Yes, you blithering idiots at profitly, it's a scam. 

Sixty of the world's biggest copper projects

Your humble scribe receives a Goldman Sachs report on copper this morning (from good old stick 'N') and here's a cutting from the piece, a list of the 60 big copper projects out there in the world today followed by the The Squids. Click on the list to get an enbiggerated view for easier reading:


Seriously folks, isn't it about time you realized that Schaft Creek is stupidly overvalued and is never going to make it, even if Ernesto hasn't clicked on yet?

The Arevenca scam begins to unravel, Setty files must-read material

Amazingly good investigative journalism from Setty today, as he covers the scam oil company Arevenca, brings us up to date on a law suit filed against the company this month and even gets one of the Arevenca officers threatening him with violence. Go check it out, today's single must-read from South America.

Reuters on the far left in Peru

An interesting piece from Reuters Peru linked here that examines the role of far left political parties in today's Peru. The basic thrust of the piece is that because Humala ran on a left-leaning ticket but once in power veered sharply to the right, the political vacuum left by this move has allowed far-left parties to grow during his first year in office.

My personal comment on the piece is that it's a bit too sensationalist. Yes, the far left has a position in natioal politics in Peru but that hasn't suddenly happened, because tiny minority far left and far right parties have always existed in the country. What we do see is people paying more attention to what they do, which creates a reflection of growth rather than true growth. Away from the rural pockets where they might have some limited influence, the far left in Peru is abhorred and mainly for what it did during the Shining Path years. So hey, I disagree with this "dangerous rise of..." theory put forward by Reuters today, but do agree that the far left is at least getting more column inches. The tail wags the dog.

Chart of the day...

...isn't a chart, it's a sentence with the words 'eleven years' contained.

I hope you have a nice day and that you're aware of having one, too.

9/10/12

Mansfield Minerals (MDR.v) shareholder rape alert

Thanks for the headsup on this to reader 'D', because it's a long time since this basket of dung dropped off your humble scribe's radar. Here's the NR...

2012-09-07 17:14 ET - News ReleaseMr. Gordon Leask reports
MANSFIELD ANNOUNCES CDN$5,750,000 PRIVATE PLACEMENT
Mansfield Minerals Inc. has obtained subscriptions for the completion of a non-brokered private placement for gross proceeds of $5.75-million through the sale of 14,375,000 units at a purchase price of 40 cents per unit. Each unit will consist of one common share of the company and one non-transferable common share purchase warrant. Each warrant will entitle the holder thereof to purchase one additional common share of the company at an exercise price of 60 cents per warrant share for a period of 24 months following the closing of the offering.
In connection with the offering, the company will pay to arm's-length finders a finder's fee equal to 5 per cent of the gross proceeds of the offering, payable in cash or units at the election of the finders. In addition, the finders will receive finder options exercisable for a period of 24 months following the closing date to acquire such number of common shares of the company as is equal to 5 per cent of the number of units sold under the offering at a purchase price of 45 cents per finder share.
The offering is subject to the acceptance of the TSX Venture Exchange. All securities issued in connection with the offering will be subject to a hold period expiring four months and one day following the closing date.
The net proceeds from the offering will be primarily used for further development of the Lindero gold project, which will include additional resource definition drilling at the Arizaro target located adjacent to the Lindero gold deposit, and for general working capital purposes.


...and here's the ten day chart to go with it:

Sooo, somebody who is definitely not Cal Everett of Axemen Resources oh no no no perish the thought starts a whisperfest and rumour-fuelled run on Mansfield Minerals (MDR.v) stock and then suddenly, post-bell Friday, the company announces a placement at a price miles under the new BS-spec price. With a full freakin' warrant too.

And thusly, Vancouver awakes from its long slumber....

A Colombian peace negotiation...by Twitter

Here's a weird thing. With peace talks just beginning between the FARC terrorist pieces of shit and the Colombian government of Juan Manuel Santos the current leader of the FARC, alias Timochenko, has just opened himself up a Twitter account. And the first of the five people he decides to follow? Why Juanma himself:


Now wouldn't it be fun if these dudes decided to use this as their main conduit of bilateral talks?

Having a bad Monday?

Your stocks not following through on last week's rally?

Annoyed that gold isn't zooming to new highs?

Back in that cubicle with your boss pissing you off already?

Indigestion from eating too much yesterday and too lazy to go to the gym?

Already bored with farting about on the internet and don't know what to do with yourself?

Worried about Australia's economic downturn?

If so, here's a message especially for you:

Can Jaguar Mining (JAG) (JAG.to) survive?

I usually try hard to avoid using question marks in title lines but this time it's justified, as the title really is a genuine question rather than some semantic side-step in order to avoid somebody's legal wrath. The news of the new CEO appointment at Jaguar Mining (JAG) (JAG.to) this morning got me thinking about the company for the first time in a while, because they've caught a decent fish in the shape of David Petroff who comes with longtooth mining experience, peer-respected and ex-head of Breakwater who managed to sell the company to Nyrstar at a good price just before the zinc market collapsed. The fact that he's decided to take the JAG job and try to sort out the mess that Titcomb created is interesting and that's what begged the question up there in the title. Can JAG turn itself around? Seriously?

Here comes the brass tacks of the shitstate at JAG in chart form and the main problem is the debt load at the company:

Which is doing this to the working capital:

And because 3q12 is expected to be a loss-maker as well (we consider a slightly optimistic 26k oz Au produced at $1k/oz cash costs for 3q12 then start adjusting the P+L accordingly) working cap will likely go negative this quarter


There are plenty more charts where they came from, but we're keeping it short today. So anyhow, that working cap is expected to be negative when the September numbers are posted which isn't very nice, but the interesting bit is that the costs of production are dropping. As belt-tightening has now become the order of the day at JAG, we should see costs drop further in 3q12 and 4q12 as well. So if JAG can produce to the higher end of guidance in the next couple of quarters, I reckon that 4q12 could see the company post a net profit. And that's the key here folks, because with a profitable mining operation that's finished with fracturing the cash, JAG could go out and do some sort of corporate financing from a position that garners more confidence from the market. With just 84m shares out, JAG has never diluted too much so there's room for an equity-based raising here so just for argument's sake, let's suppose that JAG can raise $150m by selling 150m shares at a buck apiece (betcha they'd want to raise at $1.50, but this is just a think-thru model for the moment). We'd end up with a company that could pay down its immediate liabilities and even the medium term ones, finish with perhaps $130m on its long-term notes debt, plenty of working capital and a 2013 that would look for perhaps 120,000 ounces produced at a modest net profit. From there it could work on its plan to get back up to 150k, which might even have a chance now that the company isn't being run by a total failure dumbass CEO like Dan Titcomb.

So, would a JAG with 235m shares out be worth half a billion in market cap under those circumstances (that's a $2.12 pps to you, madam/sir)? Yup, could be and that would make for a rough double from today's prices. The key will be to stop making a net quarterly loss and start making a net quarterly profit and from there, nice things might start happening to this utter dog of a company. The bottom line; I'm going to keep a close eye on the 3q12 numbers when they show up, but I'd guess that 4q12 report will be the real do-or-die moment at JAG.

UPDATE: At the bell (while I was writing this) JAG moved up 4 spots to $1.18, but in the last few minutes the stock has really taken off and $1.28 has been printed. That's coincidental to this post's publishing time and very unlikely to be related, but it does indicate that other people are thinking about this new CEO appointment and probably along the same sort of lines.




"A diller, a dollar, a ten o'clock scholar...

...what makes you come so soon? You used to come at ten o'clock, but now you come at noon."

The main beauty of that nursery rhyme is that it's often a young child's first experience of irony. It also works in the context of this post, because even your humble scribe, the epitome of the veritable chart dumbass, likes the pretty patterns on this one but will readily admit to being late on the uptake as to its contents:


The US Dollar shows just how well Mr. Bernanke walks his tightrope, so if that Mitt guy does win and boots him out, there must be a circus job waiting for the dude. This is Houdini standard, but nobody ever seems to give him credit for what he's done (so far).

Anyway, I digress; the point of this post is to say that you should buy gold or Euros or British Pounds of Swissies or maybe even some Loonies, but the USD is set to lurch down 5% so be prepared.

Chart of the day is...

...the gold/copper ratio, three year timescale:


Gold is more popular than useful things these days.

PS: On the subject of useful things, Rick Bookstaber has been writing interesting stuff recently on labor trends and the future of work. The latest in his series came out today so here's the link to that and once you've read it, check out his August offerings too. And yes, the price of gold relative to copper really is the same subject here. Since when does something have to be useful to be worth something, eh?

9/9/12

The IKN Weekly, out now


IKN175 has just been sent to subscribers. It has words in it, innit

The South America World Cup Qualifiers: September part two



After our magnificent win last week when both bets scored to give us a $60+ net profit we have our tails up and a treasury of $151.05 to throw at the next round on Tuesday. So without further ado let's check out the matches and the odds, as always taken from Ladbrokes dot com:

Chile 4/5   Draw 9/4   Colombia 11/4
Uruguay 1/2   Draw 13/5   Ecuador 9/2
Paraguay 8/13   Draw 5/2   Venezuela 7/2
Peru 9/2   Draw 3/1   Argentina 4/9

Colombia played well last week and took the normally strong Uruguay to the cleaners, but home is one thing and travelling to Chile is quite another...tough, tough stadium to find a result, that Santiago. As noted, Uruguay didn't impress at all but neither did an insipid-looking Ecuador who now have to travel. Venezuela at Paraguay is an interesting match-up, as Paraguay are normally one of the region's strongest teams but now find themselves joint bottom of the table (with Bolivia) after some rotten results mixed with tough ones (eg Argentina in Argentina last week). Paraguay really need to pick up points, but Venezuela showed themselves to be no pushover in Lima last week and in previous matches too. Finally, Peru played  well in the second half against Venezuela but looked iffy at the back all through the match. You might be able to get away with a weak defence with some teams, but not against this Argentina that's now moving from very good to ominously good (bet real money on Brazilians worrying more about this Argentina in 2014 than anything that comes over from Europe, Spain included, because the mere thought of losing their World Cup to Argentina is enough to bring them out in a cold sweat two years before the event). Messi will grab the headlines for sure, but watch out for the rapidly improving Angel Di Maria, nicknamed "fideo" (or pasta/spaghetti where you come from) due to his slight physique. He was very impressive last week and looks the real deal.

So on due consideration, here are this fixture's bets:

  • $40 on Argentina at 4/9 (theoretical return $57.78). I know the odds are cramped but Argentina do look a cut above any other team in South America right now (barring Brazil of course, but it's difficult to gauge The Scratch on friendlies alone...they'll show their hand in 2014, not before). Peru will fight hard and have a decent front line, but the defence is weak and that will be the difference Tuesday.
  • $8 on a Paraguay/Venezuela draw at 5/2 (theoretical return $28), which is a small value-type bet on a result that would please Venezuelans a lot more than Paraguayans. Venezuela is no pushover team and Paraguay hasn't clicked into gear at all so far.


That leaves $103.05 in our virtual kitty for another day, even if the two bets above go down. And let's see how we get on.


We attempt to get Iwnattos arrested by Feng Rui's band of brothers...

...or at least served with an order for libel as we excerpt a little of Iwnattos's post this morning on Silvercorp (SVM). That's because it's better to read both Market Narrative and the Andy Hoffman G&M piece than just the G&M piece:
"I guarantee you Silvercorp is worth zero, and Arthur Little were entirely correct in their assessment. However, the Chinese local government officials, bankrolled and aided by Silvercorp directly, are now arresting anyone in their reach who was part of the investigation. 

#1, Silvercorp should immediately be delisted in Toronto, as the article notes. #2, why the fuck would you invest in any Chinese company whatsoever? I mean, if insightful analysis is met with imprisonment, what does that do for the transparency that you need for rational and safe investment?"

Continues here. And no Mr. Feng, you can't have his real name. Because we don't like you, Mr. Feng.