Subscribe via email, get all daily posts sent to you next day (and without all the annoying ads)

9/29/12

Iwnattos does Toronto (part two)

More fun'n'frolics from Iwnattos, as he reports on day two of the Toronto goldbug nutbar Resource Investment Conference. Mickey Fulp, John Kaiser and Jordan Roy-Byrne your featured events. Click here, go read.

Five days of metals and miners; September 29th

Our regular Saturday slot of the last five days' worth of action in the gold bullion ETF (GLD), the silver bullion  ETF (SLV), the miner ETF (GDX), the junior miner ETF (GDXJ) and the copper ETF (COPX).


After the wild ride of early September, our squiggly lines put in a flat week. Flatter then something that's really quite flat indeed. Flatter than Holland. Flatter than the Utah salt flats. Thoough it is interesting to note that the mid week weakness was soon bought, so I'd consider things as generally positive. And happy birthday Mrs Rock! World's best person turns [redacted] today and deserved all the cake.

9/28/12

The Friday OT: Massive Attack; Protection


Repeated shamelessly, a wonderful video, the wonderful voice of Tracey Thorn (everything but the girl), the wonderful music. But then, with about two minutes to go the song goes from great to awe-inspiring and musical duffer that I am, I'd love to know why the chord changes do what they do to my pulse rate. Musico reader KH or other, enlightenment please?



Dedicated to Megan Stammers, because she's going to need a helluva lot of it in the next few weeks. Hang in there girl, don't let them suck you dry, in the meantime listen to awesome music.

The rise of the Shanghai futures exchange for copper warehouse inventories

Just as one example of about a million datapoints we could use to measure the rise of Shanghai (and the fall of the LME), on November 4th the LME warehouses held 71.7% of world inventories. 


Alberto Fujimori to be pardoned

That's the confident IKN prediction of the week on LatAm politics, as in the last few days we've seen President Ollanta Humala make some pretty obvious signals to the Fujimorista party and supporters. The nudge-wink-hint undertone of the message has been that if the Fujimori gang make a formal application for a pardon to the executive, it will be looked upon favourably. So today we hear that they've done just that and are making said application to the ministerial cabinet, via its Prime Minister Juan Jiménez.

Count this one in days, not months. As for the moral of the story, we'll go for "rich people don't stay in jail in corrupt countries".

UPDATE three hours later: Errr, toldya. Now world trending topic on twitter and all the news stories you care to mention, ever since Keiko made the news of the application official.

Yorbeau (YRB-A.to): Another bullshit story

And so this morning your humble scribe gets this dumped in my inbox by a moose pasture specialist named Yorbeau (YRB-A.to), a very pretty 58 page fundamentals report put together by some outfit named MKK Consulting Inc. However, we can happily report that it's not necessary to wade through every page and digest the information there provided, because the way to go on these things is to skip to the bottom first and read the disclaimer. In this case, MKK is known as "CONSULTANT" (potentially derived from "con", insult" and "ant", as in insect)

"This report is paid for by Yorbeau Resources Inc. Yorbeau Resources Inc paid CONSULTANT to conduct research on the company on an annual continuous basis. This report is an independent assessment of Yorbeau’s business affairs, and outlines a business plan and strategic alternatives within the competitive market circumstances. In keeping with its policies of strict independence, aIl of the opinions expressed in this report are strictly those of CONSULTANT, and are free from any influence or interference from any person or persons at the company." continues here

Sooooo... run that by me again, YRB-A willyaz (and note the dash A as well)? This report is independent, in fact is deemed of strict independence, they're free from any influence, but the company pays the consultant for the work done. And the photo of the bridge hanging in the company's reception area is also a company asset and is for sale at a discounted price to anyone interested (cash only).

Amazingly, there are still people who mail in to IKN to say that what happens on these pages is "unfair" . They also tend to wonder just why the junior mining industry has its scumball reputation.

Chart of the day...

...is taken from this AP 'Silicon Valley Insider' tweet and is the hours of the day that mobiles and PC type connections use the internet:


I like this chart.

9/27/12

Iwnattos does Toronto (part one)

If you're metalhead inclined, make a point of clicking over and reading Iwnattos's highly entertaining commentary of the Toronto Resource Investment Conference day one. It's right here, on this link.

Mailbag: Another way of ripping you off

Reader 'M' is "an industry professional" (who rightfully prefers to keep things anonymous) who sent the following in to your humble scribe this morning, by way of a reflection on the scammy world of the junior and in particular memories he had triggered by the Punchline Resources (PUNL) (PUNL.ob) scam we've tracked recently. M kindly consented to his mail being given a wider audience and here it is

Several years ago we were approached by a former Canadian Olympic athlete (who was then in finance) about a radically new approach to financing mining companies. We expressed interest, and soon a document arrived from some group of German banks and financial companies, in which they proposed we give them a whole pile of shares and they would manage a listing for us in Frankfurt. But the fine details set off a whole series of red flags.  

First off, they get a pile of shares. They claim that they can maintain a market price of about 1 euro. But we aren't allowed to do any financings or sell any shares on the market over here for one year. There were several other one-sided clauses in the contract as well, all of which led me to believe it was possible the shares would be used in a pump and dump operation. At the time there was a lot of pump and dump activity in Frankfurt. 

I researched the various banks involved over the internet and discovered that their English language and German language sites were not linked. This was important, as the officers and directors on the English-language sites all had very bland backgrounds, but the officers listed on the German-language site were different and more interesting. Two of them feature in this release 

I presented my findings at our next meeting with the German group, who shouted obscenities and stormed out. We never saw them again.

I like meetings where definite decisions are made.

The reason why I wanted more eyeballs to see M's words isn't the connection that PUNL made with him, but more to show yet another way that you, Mr/s Retail Investor, are routinely taken to the woodshed by these scamrunners. Frankfurt was and still is a hotbed for these scumballs, so one of the things to look out for is high volume trading on the German market(s) compared to the homeplate listing (usually Canada Venture). 

And what is it about hockey players going into junior mining, anyway?

Shhh! Be vewwy vewwy qwiet

Am huntin wabbit


Roll up roll up, get yer luverley North Korean gold bullion

Via @michaelmccrae over in the WorldofTweet (nice man), your humble scribe raises an eyebrow at this report in the China Post, which tells of North Korea selling large lumps of gold to China. Here's an excerpt:


"The Chosun Ilbo daily quoted sources in China as saying that the impoverished communist state had cashed more than two tons of gold worth US$100 million in China over the past year.
“North Korea has been exporting not only gold ingots it had obtained from mines or stored in government agencies but gold trinkets it had collected from ordinary people,” an ethnic Korean businessman told the daily.
“North Korean trading companies in China have been cashing the gold in secrecy,” the source said. “For this purpose, North Koreans are compelled to sell gold trinkets to government authorities.” continues here

With gold breaking out in Euros today, I think China's getting the better end of this deal.

A full, complete, all-you-need-to-know analysis of the price of gold in just five words

"Well, here we are again."


Do not complicate your life.

Brent Cook does BNN Market Call tonight


Something good on telly for a change. Tonight, Thursday 28th September at 6pm EST, Brent Cook does a full hour of answering your dumbass phone calls and mails without getting himself into legal schtuk with the companies that he wouldn't invest in to save his life. I'll watch the re-runs later tonight via the BNN website.

UPDATE: Here's the link to part one, the rest follows on automatically

Chart of the day is...

...the year-to-date comparative between Rio Alto (RIO.to) and the Lima Stock Exchange IGBVL "general" index, its benchmark. By request from reader GF of Lima.

As you can see, the IGBVL is up 10% this year and RIO is up over 50%. The website Poetry Foundation does a 'Poem of the Day' thing which I pick up on my RSS. Today's offering was "I Had Just Hung Up from Talking to You" by Jessica Greenbaum and it's a very strong piece of short verse. Far better brainfood than anything you'll find on this blog and yes, what you've just read is OT because if I told you I was going to promote poetry and then did it you'd be far less likely to read to the end. It really won't hurt you to read Ms Greenbaum's work.

9/26/12

Even more Sulliden (SUE.to)

I got to thinking about what Sulliden had guided the market to expect from this feasibility study, so started checking back on reports and things. Here's a fun interview done by Peter Tagliamonte with BN Americas, dated 5th November 2010 and here's an extract (translated) from the Q&A:

BNamericas: Regarding the feasibility study, what are the objectives?
Tagliamonte: We received a scoping study or PEA prepared by AMEC in December of last year that was based on the resource that dates back to 2004, so it is preliminary data but it confirmed that it is a very solid project with a production profile of around 105,000oz per year of gold equivalent. From that time, we have been enjoying good success with exploration on the property so for the bankable feasibility study we're aiming for a target of 155,000 oz per year over a 10 year mine life. 
BNamericas: What are the investment parameters of the project? 
Tagliamonte: The PEA estimated investment around $90m and we believe that capex will probably increase by 35% based on a larger mill, processing facility and equipment, because now we'll go from a production schedule of 105,000oz to 155,000oz. 
However, the resource will keep increasing, so I think that the 155,000oz per year will be an initial volume. It's difficult to give an exact number, but really I think that it will be between 155,000 and 200,000 oz per year, probably closer to that last number. 
BNamericas: Will you be concentrating on permitting next year? 
Tagliamonte: We are now gathering data for the environmental impact study and this will be part of the permitting paperwork. We hope to submit the application to the government at the beginning or middle of next year. On receipt of a positive answer, we'd like to start construction and have the mine in operation by the middle or end of 2012.  
IKN back, so let's see now: In late 2010 the plan already envisaged a mine that would produce 105,000oz/annum over ten years, but Tagliamonte said the objective would be to build a mine that would crank out 155,000oz minimum and probably closer to 200,000oz. The price for this would be 135% of $90m, i.e. $121.5m. Not only that, but SUE.to was gathering the data for the environmental impact study at that time, it would be submitting for its permits in mid-2011 and would be in operation by the end of 2012.

Instead, we have this:

  • A feasibility study for a mine that doesn't even make 88,000oz/annum
  • Capex of $131.8m without all that extra machinery for all those extra ounces
  • Add to the capex item the $8.5m working cap and initial fills needed, plus the mere trifling of $47.8m in Life of Mine sustaining capital (translation = we'll build the tailings dam to the right size when we have enough money) and all of that pre-VAT (roughly speaking, sales tax)
  • No environmental impact study submission, even though all that data was being gathered way back then
  • As for having the mine operation by the middle or end of 2012....well, take a look for yourself.


As they say round these parts, pez por la boca muere. But of course, we must trust junior mining CEOs such as Peter Tagliamonte because they always tell the truth and never try to hoodwink anyone or try to exaggerate their companies' prowess. Or maybe this applies (ty reader 'J', fine person that you are):

Mo' Sulliden (SUE.to): Can we be clear on this, please?

So you think it's a buy because it's going for the "build small get bigger" model that Rio Alto (RIO.to) used down the road at La Arena? 
1) Down the road La Arena is in the province of La Libertad. SUE.to at Shahuindo is in Cajamarca. That province name ring a bell to you, perchance?
2) The NPV on this feas is still less than the current market cap of the company, even after today's drop in share price on this news.
3) And it still hasn't had its environmental permitting even submitted to the Peru government, let alone considered, let alone approved. Want to hazard a guess as to how long you're going to have to wait for a construction decision on this? FWIW, put me down for 2015.

Still think this company is worth nearly $300m? Sorry to be so blunt, but I really don't want to reply to the same mail 18 times.

UPDATE: And now, Even more Sulliden (SUE.to)

The difference between mails received from subscribers to The IKN Weekly and those received from non-subbers

September 19th, received from subscriber 'ES' (slight edit)
"Yesterday morning new York time I sold the remainder of my FSM (Fortuna Silver) at $5.75 which was great and I would have bailed earlier but for your patience. 
Currently the only "Otto Stock" I own is [redacted] but it sure is a good one.  It is my third largest holding..."
September 19th, non-subber "RC" reacting to this post on the blog the day before:

"Wonder why you sold Fortuna?? Silver is cycling to $40 IN THE SHORT TERM."

Right now, FSM is U$5.08 and spot silver is U$33.70. Just sayin'.

Pathetically poor horntoot that brushes over a multitude of errors complete. DYODD, dude.

Dominic Frisby has written a book...

...and as he's an IKN pal this post exists to help him get the word out. You can read a lot more about the book and order your copy by clicking right here, but first read the pitch here below that he's put together, to whet your appetite:

THE PITCH
My name is Dominic Frisby.
In 2005-6 I became disillusioned with the advice my financial advisers were giving me, sacked them and, reading insatiably, began to look after my own money. I was fascinated by the world of finance.
It quickly became obvious to me that the global economy was a train crash waiting to happen – and it amazes me that leading politicians, economists and journalists all, without exception, failed to see it coming. Mad though my friends and family thought me at the time, I put everything I owned into gold. It has since appreciated by several hundred per cent.
I read more and more voraciously. I started a podcast as an excuse to meet, talk to and learn from some of the incredible financial and economic minds I had come across in my research. Moneyweek Magazine asked me to write a column. I all but sacrificed my 'other career' as a comedian.
This book is the culmination of these seven years of study, bordering on obsession. Just as I saw the financial crash of 2008 coming, I now see another one, even more calamitous, headed our way; only this one has serious political ramifications as well. But now, as then, not one high-profile politician, economist or journalist seems to "get it" - because not one of them have correctly identified the cause of our problems.
I had never thought, before, about the nature of money. I never realised that there is a direct link between what we use as money and liberty, honesty and efficiency. It is in money – the blood of an economy – that our salvation lies. Continues here


I haven't read it, but if he feels like sending me over a comp copy (hint hint Dominic) I'll read it and give you a no-holds barred review on these pages once done. In the meantime, you may want to beat me to it and order your own because given his background and experience I think a really good read is in the offing here. So click right here and find out for yourself. 

UPDATE: On reflection I've decided not to be so cheap and have therefore ordered my e-book copy, as it wasn't expensive. I suggest you do the same

WOOO! Spooky gold price woooooo!

Oh noes! End of Times! The preppers are right wrong right wrong...oh i dunno:


That's what? A very lot of dollars per ounce less! Mummy!

Gold Canyon (GCU.v): Pinetree buys, insiders sell

According to the latest filings Quinton Hennigh sold about 80% of his holding and is the latest insider to bail on Gold Canyon (GCU.v), the junior that's been making good noises all year from its Springpole thingy up in Red Lake but for some reason, has insiders keen to sell to the instos:


Beats me what insiders might know about the company that Sheldon doesn't.

Chart of the day is...

...Sulliden Gold Corp. (SUE.to), ten days:


It'd be a real shocker if we ever found out somebody was dumping on inside knowledge of the disappointing feas study published today, wouldn't it?

What? It wouldn't?

9/25/12

The Punchline Resources (PUNL) scam: Remember how IKN told you...

... Punchline Resources (PUNL) (PUNL.ob) was a total freakin' scam just two weeks ago in this linked post? Well folks, time for the punchline on Punchline:


Yup, it's a scam. SEC, where art thou?

Shock! Surprise! Gasp! Copper Fox (CUU.v) delays publication of its feasibility study

Here's the NR, in which the serial bullshitters at Copper Fox (CUU.v) don't even have the common decency to set a new date for the publication of its waaaaaaaaaaaaaay overdue feasibility study for Schaft Creek.

At this point, it's worth considering just why CUU is so un-keen about getting its feas published. It's all to do with Teck's back-in, y'see, because as soon as the feas is delivered, Teck has 120 days to decide what it wants to do with its option. If, as is most likely for this overhyped, overvalued high capex piece of enhanced moose pasture, Teck decides to refuse the back-in option then the game is up for CUU. So by delaying publication of the feas, CUU gets to pay itself another quarter's (or two...or three, hey why not guys?) worth of salaries. And hey, if it plays its cards right it might even be able to squeeze another one of those $4m placements out of its sugardaddy Ernesto.

Chile's copper royalty down 25%

The news out of Chile regarding the drop in royalties paid to the givernment by its copper mining sector is interesting from several angles. Word is that in the first six months of 2012
  • Royalties collected by Chile are U$311m, down $105m, or ~25%, from the U$416m in the same period of 2011.
  • Of the payers, the big three payers have dropped payments substantially. They are BHP's La Escondida (down 31% to $87m), Antofagasta's Los Palambres (down 37% to U$67m) and Anglo/Xstrata/other's Collahuasi ((down 39% to U$41m.
  • The reasons for the drop in royalties are a) the lower market prices for copper which shouldn't surpirse any of us and b) an approximate 15% rise in costs of production, which is interesting to read.

Bottom line: Think margins.




Chart of the day is...

...some vignette snippet of information from the world of the markets put into pleasing visual form:


The author of the post then goes on to expand on the point the chart is trying to make by a couple of logical extensions which, if strong enough, hold together well and see the reader nodding in agreement. If the post is then suitably set up, it affords the writer an opportunity to reach further and make a near Zen-like observation on the structure of capital markets and of life itself, which marks the author down as a visionary and draws fawning respect in the comments section.

It really is about time that you guys caught on to the fact that financial blogs are a total fucking waste of your time. I hope you have an enjoyable Tuesday.

9/24/12

Presidential approval ratings in The Americas: The new Mitofsky poll

Every so often, Mexican pollsters Mitofsky release a "poll of polls" on approval ratings of all Heads of State in The Americas (mostly Presidents, a smattering of Prime Ministers). This week sees the latest edition of the Mitofsky tome and here's the link and here's the pretty coloured chart that your humble scribe has done to make it easier on the Anglophone. Click the chart to embiggen and more betterer to readeration:


And the winner is....

Rafael Correa, President of Ecuador! Take a bow Studmuffin, you and your 80% approval. Also polling in the "green for good" section are:
  • Funes of El Salvador (sexy and he knows it), 
  • Pérez Molina of Guatemala (enjoying honeymoon period
  • Chávez of Venezuela (look, take it up with Mitofsky not with me, ok?
  • Rousseff of Brazil (we like her, good at numbers and pals with Lula)
  • Fernández of The Dominican Republic (who's made great strides since polling a mere 38% in January 2012)

Then come the middle-rankers, from Daniel Ortega on 59% through to Cristina on 43%. After that we enter the dangers zones and six Presidents/HoS between 41% (Evo) and 36% (Seb). Finally, the real down low bummers are Porfirio Lobo of Honduras and Laura Chinchilla of Costa Rica

IKN recommends: Diverging Markets

I know quality info about emerging markets when I see it, and after discovering Diverging Markets earlier today I've been reading quality info about emerging markets. 

Nobody told me this blog existed before and I wish they had done. Insightful analysis, tons on Africa, Asia and enough LatAm to keep me happy too. The author really knows his stuff and writes well, too. I highly recommend Diverging Markets to the wider world, now stop getting bored at this shop and go read something interesting for a change. IKN out.

Mining PRs and the Ottotrans™, part 62


The return of occasional series today features a NR published after the bell Friday (always a bad sign) by Inca One Resources Corp (IO.v). 

This is what they wrote:


VANCOUVER, Sept. 21, 2012 /CNW/ - INCA ONE RESOURCES CORP. (TSXV: IO) ("Inca One") or ("the Company") would like to announce receipt from Minera Huaquillas an update on the progress being made with community members regarding public participation mechanisms and the advancement of exploration work on its Las Huaquillas gold-copper project in Peru.
Requirements Related to Public Participation
The Company continues to develop community partnerships as it works to complete the public participation workshop required for approval of mining projects by Peru's Ministry of Energy and Mines (the "Ministry"). Seven DIA presentations regarding proposed exploration activities at the Las Huaquillas Project were delivered to the area's surface land holders and coffee farmers between July 14th and August 19th, 2012.  The DIA is an "Environmental Impact Statement" outlining a plan for advanced exploration activities on Peruvian mineral exploration projects.
These presentations to further inform local community members ran smoothly, and attendees expressed interest and enthusiasm for the Project. A larger Public Participation Workshop followed on September 9th, 2012.  In a repeat of the first scheduled workshop to meet the formal Ministry requirement before a mining exploration program can be commenced, the meeting was again interrupted by an outspoken local individual.  While the workshop was suspended, the Company reached an agreement with the individual regarding the need to provide additional information to the communities involved.
Inca One's CEO Edward Kelly commented: "We are working as quickly and cooperatively as possible to successfully complete the Public Participation Workshop requirement.  However, we are also sensitive to the need to engage and inform the local communities about our plans.  We have stepped up our information program with local advertising.  We will schedule another official Workshop, and any follow-up meetings necessary to acquire the drill permits we are seeking. We understand time is of the essence.  Shareholders can be confident that we are working with the interests of the Company's future in mind."
Private Placement Offering
Inca One is also pleased to announce the terms of a non-brokered private placement offering (the "Offering") to raise gross proceeds of up to CAD $1 million. Under the terms of the placement, the Company intends to issue up to 10,000,000 units ("Units") at $0.10 per Unit.
Each Unit will consist of one common share of the Company and one half share purchase Warrant, where each Warrant will allow the subscriber to purchase one additional common share of the Company at an exercise price of$0.20 per share for a period of 12 months from the date of closing, subject to adjustment/acceleration under certain circumstances. The Company may, at its discretion, pay finder's fees of the aggregate gross proceeds raised through finders pursuant to the Offering.
The securities issued upon the closing of the Offering will be subject to customary securities legislation hold periods. The Offering is subject to receipt of all necessary approvals including the acceptance of the TSX Venture Exchange ("TSXV"). The Offering is anticipated to close on or before Oct 30, 2012.
The net proceeds of the Offering will be used to further develop community relations for the Company's Las Huaquillas Project and for general working capital.
About Inca One:


And this is what it means:

"We're being dicked around by the pain in the ass locals and we have no cash."

dyodd

What? No Copper Fox (CUU.v) feasibility news yet?


Copper Fox (CUU.v) management are liars? Surely not! However, we have now celebrated the end of summer in the Northern hemisphere (10:49am GMT on Sept 22nd is the exact time) and there's no doubt that CUU.v management has told us on many occasions it would have its feasibility study with us by now:


This NR dated June 14th made it quite clear. Management told us that the feas would be done late summer 2012
"During the quarter, Tetra Tech advised that, due to manpower shortages and scheduling difficulties of staff, the March 31st timeline for completion of the Feasibility Study would not be achieved. The delay in completing the Mine Plan, a critical component in the Feasibility Study, has delayed the completion of the Feasibility Study until mid-late summer, 2012."
The management's message was repeated in this NR dated August 2nd which said:
"The feasibility study is being led by Tetra Tech Wardrop on a minimum 120,000 tpd open pit mine and is expected to be completed by late summer, 2012."
And less than three weeks ago on September 4th, CUU.v confirmed the delivery date of the long awaited feas study:
The feasibility study is being led by Tetra Tech Wardrop on a minimum 120,000 tpd open pit mine and is expected to be completed by late summer, 2012. 
Not to mention the precise same message on September 10th, a mere fourteen days ago! Anyway, here's a  jolly tune to lift the spirits of the idiot myopic sheep long-suffering CUU longs while they wait for their not-scumbag not-misleading not-totalbunchofbullshitter managerial team to come up with the news:



Chart of the day is...

...Peru's international currency reserves, December 31st 2011 and September 18th 2012 (the latest number released this weekend just gone):


That's U$2,048 in reserves for every man, woman and child in Peru, according the the CIA population estimate of 29.55m for the coutnry at least. That's a lot of money in the bank, Peru.

9/23/12

The IKN Weekly, out now


IKN177 has just been sent to subscribers, a complete load of tosh and nonsense that wouldn't be worth the paper it were printed on if it had been printed on paper, which it hasn't. Anyway, if it were me I'd complain I tell you, and it is me so there you have it.