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11/17/12

Goals scored in the Spanish league so far this season

A simple table to date, Saturday PM (updated, Real had fun)

Position Team Goals scored
1  Real Madrid 27 32
2  Atlético Madrid 24
3  FC Barcelona bar Messi 19
4  Real Betis 18
4  Deportivo La Coruña 18
6 Lionel Messi on his own 17
8  Valencia CF 16
6  Athletic Bilbao 17
8  Rayo Vallecano 16
8  Real Valladolid 16
11  Málaga CF 15
12  Real Zaragoza 14
13  RCD Espanyol 13
13  Levante UD 13
13  Celta de Vigo 13
13  Sevilla FC 13
17  Real Sociedad 12
17  Getafe CF 12
17  RCD Mallorca 12
19  Osasuna 11
19  Granada CF 11


Can you see what I did?

Jeanne D'Arc at The Screwtape Files talks gold

Right here. Anyone who trades or owns gold should read this post.

Five days of metals and miners; November 17th

Our regular Saturday slot of the last five days' worth of action in the gold bullion ETF (GLD), the silver bullion  ETF (SLV), the miner ETF (GDX), the junior miner ETF (GDXJ) and the copper ETF (COPX).


That's what I call a disconnect

11/16/12

Gary 'Biiwii' Tanashian does TV, becomes famous, etc

Gary Biiwii dives head first into fame. Check out this Q&A with one of the best and most honest market voices out there.



The Friday OT: Faith No More; Ricochet (repeat OT)


Another Friday OT repeat, first featured in March of this year. It gets a repeat showing because even though I had another song lined up today, for some reason I woke up with this thing spinning round my head this morning. Maybe it's something to do with my mood today and the way it was intro'd the last time

"Wild, rip-ass, blow-frustration-out-yer-head-by-the-earholes track based around a famous Bill Hicks line:

"It's always funny until someone gets hurt. Then it's just hilarious."


It's a massive track. Enjoy.

Blueprint for those wishing to write into IKN Nerve Centre™ with complaints on blog content

I know this is the blueprint because I get this mail, or slight variations of it, on a regular basis. Feel free to paste, adapt with your own details and send it in. It'll save you a lot of time.

Dear Otto,

I love your blog and usually think it's great, but I was morally shocked and deeply offended by the way in which you attacked [insert name of company or ticker symbol] yesterday. I'll have you know that I have been invested in [company] for [name number of] years and love the stock more than my own family, so it's darned horrid of you to suddenly speak about the future Nobel Peace Prize winner [insert name of company CEO] in such an unfair way.

I expect a full retraction and grovelling apology immediately, but please keep up the good work in exposing market charlatans.

Yours, [insert name of author]

UPDATE: Iwnattos writes in:


Dear Otto,
 
I love your blog and usually think it's great, but I was morally shocked and deeply offended by the way in which you recently attacked the government of Argentina. I'll have you know that I have been a creditor for 12 years and love the country more than my own family, so it's darned horrid of you to suddenly speak about the future Nobel Peace Prize winner Christina Kirchner in such an unfair way.
 
I expect a full retraction and grovelling apology immediately, but please keep up the good work in exposing market charlatans.
 
Yours,
Weedlord Bonerhitler

Goldcorp (GG) and Guatemala mining political risk

A reader who knows both mining and Guatemala very well (no names no packdrill) sends in the link to this report and also a quick cover mail reproduced here because it gets 100% agreement from your humble scribe. Here's the cover mail.
Is it any wonder that Guatemalans are wary of mining and mining exploration companies? Even this benign incident (well, perhaps not for the poor driver, but the article doesn’t say what happened to him) could potentially cause alarm to people that don’t necessarily understand what diatomaceous earth is (and that probably includes 99% of the population). So, unknown chemicals spill all over the place by an overturned truck bound for the Marlin Mine? Let’s call the community relations people at Goldcorp to find out more about it. Oh wait, they don’t bother to answer the phone.

It’s the little things Goldcorp, the little inattentions that can add up. Especially in a place like Guatemala, perception is everything…


And now here's our translation of the report. Please note that Goldcorp (GG) is the owner of the mentioned Marlin mine:

Truck Transporting Chemicals Overturns in Momostenango 
A truck that was transporting chemical for the Marlin mine overturned at Km 202 of the InterAmericana highway, municipality of Momostenango, Totonicapán 
MOMOSTENANGO: The truck, regisration C-059BKM, was travelling from the capital to San Marcos with 425 sacks of diatomaceous earth, a susbstance used for the treatment of industrial water at the Marlin mine, owned by Montana Exploradora, a subsidiary of the Canadian Goldcorp mining company. 
The vehicle fell 50m into a river valley and as a result a considerable amaount of the chemical was strewn across the land sue to several sacks splitting. Workers from Marlin arrived and transferred the chemical to another vehicle. 
We tried to contact Claudia Flores, Community Relations officer at Marlin, to know more about the issue from the mining company's perspective but she did not answer her cellphone.

Bottom line: Goldcorp (GG) public relations in Guatemala is run by dumbasses

The USA's opinion of Latin America is becoming irrelevant

There was a time that pieces such as Otto Reich's latest op-ed on Honduras and wider Latin America (brought to my attention by Two Weeks Notice here) would get my back up, my blood boiling, my rant ready to roll. But as I read both the Greg Weeks post (a correct summary) and then clicked through to the Reich op-ed itself this morning I found myself not caring a jot about the message being conveyed. This slightly surprised me but then after a few seconds reflection the reason quickly became clear: We down here care less and less about what you up there think about the way we go about life. The USA's opinion used to be sacrosanct down here, it held great weight and import, therefore opinonators who might influence the discourse such as the batshit crazy Reich mattered. Nowadays it's a minor part of a much greater whole, other foreign country and regional views matter more and yes, you can start that list with China. Not only that, but more importantly the growth of the region as a self-contained and self-sustaining entity that creates its own wealth instead of relying upon others to bring money in means that LatAm's independent voice has grown stronger. You can applaud the way Brazil does its business and denegrate Bolivia's if you like, but why should Bolivia care when it's grown at a decent clip every year since Morales has been in power (and will do so again this year)? Cheer Peru and jeer Ecuador to your heart's content, but Ecuador isn't about to re-elect Correa on a whim and a fancy; it's doing just fine without you guys thanks very much. The list continues.

If the US wants to retain its waning influence in Latin America, or even regain some, it's high time the country collective stopped talking and started listening.

Chart of the day is...

...12 months of Alderon Iron Ore (ADV.to):


As always in a Stan Bharti play the rocks and mining plan look reasonable, but there's something about the corporate side. And as is increasingly the case, the market is now slowly but surely waking up to the fact that it's being duped by Bharti. Again.

Liberty Silver (LSL.to) (LBSV) runs secondary

With just $785k in cash as at September 30th, Liberty Silver (LSL.to) (LBSV) is desperate for funds to keep up the pretence of being a company with a future (instead of the scam that it most certainly is). It's also run from the backrooms, not by the supposed "all star cast" of mgmt and directors (most with serious amounts of egg on face after getting naively roped into this otc pump'n'dump, a couple with full knowledge of how sleazy it all is) but by Bobby Genovese, scam-running pump'n'dump OTC merchant par excellence who's desperate to cash out at least a small part of his position (the minor bits that he officially owns).

The combo of Bobby G wanting moolah and LSL.to needing funds has resulted in this, an S-1 form filed last night with the SEC that announces LSL is going to sell a whole bunch of shares that others own to other people. LSL won't get the proceeds from the sale (those go to the shareholders) but will benefit from the warrants that are sold with a base price of 50c, and it just so happens that the lion's share of the 12.6m share offering is 6.5m warrants owned by Bobby Genovese. Just this part of the deal means Bobby G will get a couple of grand short of $1.5m if the warrants are converted and sold as planned at the proposed 73c share price, while LSL will beneift from $3.25m flowing into its coffers. And unsurprisingly (as pages 13 and 14 of the S-1 show) Bobby G isn't the only one to offer up warrants in this secondary. Overall, there are a tad over 10m examples of this utterly worthless warrant paper on the block that will send a little over $5m to LSL's coffers if their cunning plan works in the way they want it to work.

A neat solution for these rip-off merchants, no? They get to sell their positions, LSL gets cash to go play at drilling, we all live happily ever after (except the stupid suckers who decide to buy into this mess, of course....but hey, no law against throwing your money down a toilet). It also explains just why LSL.to has been so darned keen to manipulate its stock price recently and keep it artifically above 70c......those 50c exercise price warrants are no good if the pps is where it really should be....perhaps 20c at best. Due to that you get a price chart that looks like this...


...and screams of bullshit market rigging. Now, tell me the whiter-than-white directors of LSL are ignorant of this Bobby G orchestrated crime, too.


11/15/12

The single most fun thing in the world of junior mining today is...

...this:

       Conference Call
Gold Resource Corporation's CEO and President will host a 60 minute conference call Thursday, November 15, 2012 at 11:00 a.m. EST. Management will update shareholders on third quarter 2012 results as well as current operations.

Don't miss out on the yoks, guffaws and chortles, be there or be square. Meanwhile, here's a link to the GORO 3q12 financials, published mere minutes ago. Lots to chew over, but this bit is fun for starters:

We have been named as a defendant in a securities class action lawsuit which could result in substantial damages and may divert management’s time and attention from our business. On October 25, 2012, a putative securities class action lawsuit was commenced in the United States District Court for the District of Colorado, naming us and certain of our officers as defendants.  This lawsuit and any other related lawsuits are subject to inherent uncertainties, and the actual costs to be incurred relating to the lawsuit will depend upon many unknown factors. The outcome of the litigation is necessarily uncertain, and we could be forced to expend significant resources in the defense of this suit, and we may not prevail. Monitoring and defending against legal actions is time-consuming for our management and detracts from our ability to fully focus our internal resources on our business activities. In addition, we may incur substantial legal fees and costs in connection with the litigation. We are not currently able to estimate the possible cost to us from this matter, and we cannot be certain how long it may take to resolve this matter or the possible amount of any damages that we may be required to pay. We have not established any reserves for any potential liability relating to this lawsuit. It is possible that we could, in the future, incur judgments or enter into settlements of claims for monetary damages. A decision adverse to our interests on this action could result in the payment of substantial damages and could have a material adverse effect on our cash flow, results of operations and financial position. In addition, the uncertainty of the currently pending litigation could lead to increased volatility in our stock price.
dyodd, dude

Mining PRs and the Ottotrans™, part 65


Once more unto the breach dear friends as we take the pretzel-like use of the English language in junior mining company news releases and convert it into something that normal, rational human beings can digest. Our example today comes from Huldra Silver (HDA.v) and its NR post-bell yesterday.

This is what they wrote (including the company's bold type, nothing added here):


VANCOUVER, BRITISH COLUMBIA--(Marketwire - Nov. 14, 2012) -NOT FOR DISTRIBUTION TO THE UNITED STATES WIRE SERVICES OR DISSEMINATION IN OR INTO THE UNITED STATESHuldra Silver Inc. (TSX VENTURE:HDA) ("Huldra" or the "Company") is pleased to announce that it has completed an additional tranche of its previously announced private placement financing (the "Financing"), as described in its press releases dated September 17, October 1, October 12, and October 23, 2012, due to market demand. With the approval of the TSX Venture Exchange, the Company has issued an aggregate of 1,064,000 additional units (each, a "Unit") for aggregate gross proceeds of $1,436,400. Each Unit consisted of one common share (each, a "Share") and one half of one Share purchase warrant (with each whole warrant being, a "Warrant"). Each Warrant is exercisable into one Share at a price of $1.75 per Share for six months from the date of issuance. The closing of this additional tranche brought the final total of the Financing, which closed in various tranches between September 26, 2012 and November 14, 2012, to aggregate gross proceeds of $6,884,460.In connection with the closing of the additional tranche of the Financing, the Company has agreed to pay aggregate cash commissions of $114,912 and to issue an aggregate of 85,120 finder's warrants, with each finder's warrant exercisable into one Share at a price of $1.35 per Share for a period of 12 months from the date of issuance.The proceeds from the sale of the Financing will be used to increase the mill inventory from the Treasure Mountain Mine, to develop the Company's infrastructure, for debt repayment and for general working capital purposes.The Company would also like to announce that the mill has been operational this week and is producing concentrate. The Company intends to continue to make adjustments to the mill equipment to maximize operations and recovery during normal operations.All securities issued in connection with the Financing will be subject to a statutory four month hold period. None of the securities sold in connection with the Financing will be registered under the U.S. Securities Act of 1933, as amended, and may not be offered or sold in the United States absent registration or an applicable exemption from the registration requirements. This press release shall not constitute an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy nor shall there be any sale of the securities in any jurisdiction in which such offer, solicitation or sale would be unlawful.On behalf of the Board of Directors ofHULDRA SILVER INC.Ryan Sharp, MBA, President, CEO & Director


And this is what it means:


VANCOUVER, BRITISH COLUMBIA--(Marketwire - Nov. 14, 2012) -
NOT FOR DISTRIBUTION TO THE UNITED STATES WIRE SERVICES OR DISSEMINATION IN OR INTO THE UNITED STATES
Huldra Silver Inc. (TSX VENTURE:HDA) ("Huldra" or the "Company") is pleased to announce that due to it being a normal junior mining company desperate to get its hands on some ready cash it has diverted traded volume away from the open market where purchases of stock may have helped to maintain share prices and sold an extra block of placement shares that we didn't tell you about before to some bigger-sized buyer who wanted in. After all, what's the point in being suddenly a popular stock if we can't milk it for ourselves, right?
The Company would also like to announce that despite the need to add cash to the treasury via share sales that imply we're nowhere near cash flow positive on our operations, we're making it clear that the mill has been operational this week and is producing concentrate which sounds good, doesn't it? But hold on, if we're producing conc why the devil do we need to sell extra shares too? Oh, the weird juxtapositions of life, eh? Oh yeah, got it, there this last bit which says "The Company intends to continue to make adjustments to the mill equipment to maximize operations and recovery during normal operations" and that means the mine isn't making a profit yet...ahh, that'd be it. So why mention the fact that the mill is running? That'd be because of that nasty Vancouver Sun article earlier in the week that said the authorities had closed us down because we didn't have the right ladders and lights in the U/G ops. So now that's all sorted out will you all please stop selling our shares? Thanks in advance.



A flash update...

...was sent to subscribers about half an hour ago on this Thursday morning (and there's still two hours before the opening bell...time for breakfast). We quickly note quarterly results in three of our covered companies (no changes to recos though) and also note that your humble scribe added to two of the already open positions yesterday, taking advantage of the sell-off prices. So there you go. 

Chart of the day is...

...the working capital position at Great Panther Silver (GPR.to) (GPL):


The joke silver miner. Supposedly a producing and profitable mining, the only people to profit are the execs with their fat salaries and the only time in the last four years that it's managed to add cash to its structure is when it sold $24m of new shares to the market  (at $4.20 a share!!) in April 2011. A classic case of "sold to you sucker" if ever there were one. We also remind you that this stock is Christopher Barker's (of the Motley Dumbass) idea of a top pick mining stock and was touted by him at $3.50 and above. There's one born every minute, frankly.

11/14/12

Dear Barrick (ABX): The joke's on you

This is great:


I lol'd

GORO. Woodshed. That is all.

When I went short on Gold Resource Corp (GORO) early September I set a nominal $14 downside price target on the stock, but eventually bugged out late-ish October at $17 and bits after that waterfall drop, happy enough with the quick winning trade (and still am, fwiw)

I should have trusted my own advice. Oooh err missus...


...this thing is now getting smashed. Can't say I'm sad though, not even about missing the rump end of the drop. This is about reality rearing its ugly head, about wishful thinking versus hard facts, about how a bullshit story will always have a shelf life. Nate Silver versus Karl Rove, anyone?

The fox guarding the henhouse: Why Canada's capital markets will stay rotten to the core as long as the OSC is "regulating"

I'm a little late to this, but my ignorance doesn't change the fact that it's still a great report. Go to this link entitled "OSC and Northern Securities: The whole story, and the need for real oversight instead of window dressing" that was sent in by kind reader MM and you too can read about the way the OSC games its own system in order to extract cash from its victims. While you're reading don't bother having any sympathy for Vic Alboini because he's just another market parasite with a deservedly bad reputation, but that won't stop your eyes from being opened by the sleazeball way in which the OSC goes about its dirty business. 

Pro-Tip for rapists and thieves: Leave El Alto Bolivia off your vacation list

Here's the report, here's the translation:

Bolivia: Chemical castration approved for rapists and amputation of hands for thieves

A council of indigenous Aymara peoples responsible for overseeing community justice in El Alto, the ciy in the La Paz department of Bolivia, passed on Monday a resolution for the castration of sexual rapists and the amputation of one hand for re-offending thieves.

Two modes of justice are used in Bolivia for offenders against laws and customs: Normal legal justice applied by the courts and community justice applied by indigenous councils, with both recognized by the Constitution of Bolivia.

According to news reports, "ayllus" (aymara communities) in El Alto are part of the 'Marka Julián Apaza' organization in which community justice is applied that will punish rapists with castration and the amputation of one hand to re-offending thieves. Continues here


IKN has pissed off either Ian Park or James West...

...because yesterday your humble scribe received a mail from Google Blogger saying that they'd received a complaint about this post dated October 7th, "The Ballad of Seafield Resources (SFF.v)". We wait to see if blogger removes the post or not but meanwhile it's there for your viewing pleasure. And by the way, I stand by every word written in the post too. James West and Ian Park really are shits of the highest water.

So, which one of these manly men's men has taken umbrage? Place your bets darlings!

UPDATE: Oh my, just when this post goes up the post is removed. So don't bother clicking through on that above link, there's nothing to see there any longer. Never mind, here's the screenshot of what you're missing
click to enlarge
:-)

UPDATE 2: Apparently it's available to those not clicking through from Canada. Funny old selective free speech world, innit?

Rio Alto (RIO.to): A really really big photo of La Arena

Click on the photo for full size. It's big and very impressive and you'll also note it was taken (by CEO Alex Black) on November 13th, i.e. yesterday.

Click to embiggerate (or engrandisize, if you insist)

By the way, the 3q12 numbers just out were just fine. We'll look at them Sunday, but "all good" is all you really need to know, subbers.

What the neighbours think of Tahoe Resources (THO.to) (TAHO)


We translate this from Guatemala's decent source, Siglo21:
Ninety-eight percent of the population of Mataquecuintla in Jalapa voted against mining exploration and production in their municipality during the referendum that took place on Sunday (November 11th) in the region. 

The vote was organized with the backing of the (country's official electoral body) Supreme Electoral Tribunal, which provided the logistics, and of the Procurator of Human Rights as guarantor. The mayor, Hugo Manfredo Loy, announced that of 10,375 votes 10.022 were for the "no".
Thusly and therefore, we also know that this vote was officially sanctioned and backed by the national electoral body, not some joke ONG false-vote. And as this report notes, only adults registered on the electoral roll and resident in the municipality were allowed to vote at one of the 51 polling stations set up for the event: This ain't no kangaroo court, folks.

The municipality hosts the Santa Rosa (aka Escobal) project of Tahoe Resources (THO.to) (TAHO) and once they'd heard the result, said company went to the country's Constitutional Court to block the result and introduce standard legal measures, to which it has every right, to try to declare it illegal. As a precautionary measure the CC has suspended the vote result but as Myaor Loy said to the press, "The people have already spoken and that cannot be reversed".

Still feeling confident about going long on a $3Bn market cap exploration stage silver miner in Guatemala?

UPDATE: The THO 3q12 numbers are out and one of the bullet points in the NR is...

  Exploitation license is expected in the 4th quarter of 2012.All other permits have been received.

Hmm...Anyone fancy taking a bet on that?

Full disclosure: No position in Tahoe Resources, but quite frankly the short trade is beginning to tempt me.

Chart of the day is...

...the price ratio of platinum to palladium over the last three years:


Short explanation: A few years ago somebody worked out a cool way of using palladium in catalytic convertors that was much more efficient than previous ways. This suddenly made palladium the no-brainer metal to use at that price relative to platinum. The ratio then dropped to the point where price/efficiency balanced out again. Since then it's been boring. We love Adam Smith.

11/13/12

Gold Resource Corp (GORO) late files its 3q12 earnings report

At what point do you start laughing at these amateurs? Gold Resource Corp (GORO) today notified the SEC that it would be late filing its 3q12 numbers because...because...the re-stating of its 1q12 and 2q12 numbers has got them all confused and it's a massive game changing $3.7m we have to put in...or perhaps take out.... of the calculations they're still not sure which boxes to change on the Excel spreadsheet and how can you possibly expect a one billion dollar market cap company* to be able to do everything at once?

This company is a joke. An embarrassment pumped by people on the take and ripping off the naive souls that buy into all that crap about gold dividends. John Doody and Jim Puplava, you should be thoroughly ashamed of yourselves and the least you can do is admit your mistake to the people that pay you for your opinions. Before they stop paying you.


*Well, it was until recently. Ha.

Chart of the day is...

...Liberty Silver, 2012 year to date:


Oh c'mon, where's your sense of humour?

Hey, I just can't wait for those arrogant, ignorant fools at the OSC to get what's coming to them, not to mention the stuffed up pieces of junk at the TSX who approved the stock's listing due to their pals being on board and ignoring the simple fact that the company didn't measure up to the minimum requirements for a dot tee oh listing.

A flash update...

...has just been sent to subscribers. It's about Jaguar Mining.

Nautilus Minerals (NUS.to): Insert your own "drowning" or "underwater" joke here

IKN would be interested in getting the opinion of Porter Stansberry on today's news out of Nautilus Minerals (NUS.to), as those of you with a memory (your humble scribe is unfortunately so burdened) with surely recall the total bullshit pump that despicable scam merchant played on his flock in 2010 that elicited comments such as this ...
You gotta almost feel sorry for the poor suckers that buy into such an obvious BS pump jobs--GOLD SANDS on the ocean floor, highest grade ever, worth billions of dollars and only Porter Stansberry can tell you about it--. The problem Stansberry faces is that each sucker is only good for one pump as anyone naive enough to believe this crap ain't got no money anyway. Now if Stansberry and Co. could really make 1,000 to 10,000% gains all the time and put $10,000 into one such GOLD SANDS each year, in five years they would be worth a billion dollars. Two more years they would be the richest men on earth. They obviously ain't and have to resort to pumps like NUS to scrape by a living bilking widows, orphans and tea-baggers.

...and won Green Laser Review's "Stock Pump of the Year" 2010 award, as well as several guffaws from this humble corner of cyberspace (looking back I like this one).

Anyway, here's the news from NUS.to and it starts like this:

TORONTO, ONTARIO--(Marketwire - Nov 13, 2012) - Nautilus Minerals Inc. (NUS.TO)(NUS.L)(NUSMF) ("Company" or "Nautilus") announces it has decided to preserve its cash position by terminating the construction of the equipment for its Seafloor Production System (continues here)

Dive! Dive! Dive!

11/12/12

Gold Resource Corp (GORO) from IKN184 yesterday

By popular demand, yesterday's short follow-up piece on Gold Resource Corp (GORO) as featured in The IKN Weekly. For context, I went short GORO in early September then covered the position for a quick and decent profit one the major drop happened.

Gold Resource Corp (GORO) update
Between September and October this year your author analyzed Gold Resource Corp (GORO) in detail twice, opened a short position on the stock with a near-term perspective, got the news regarding production shortfall we’d forecast and then closed the position for a quick and pleasant 19% win, one of a few successful trades that have offset the majority of losers in this utterly forgettable year for juniors. However, this short’n’sweet update isn’t to gloat at the wonderful past but look at developments since we last mentioned the stock a couple of weeks ago, then make a call on what might happen to GORO in the next couple of months. There are four main developments:
 
1)   GORO tried to stay above $17 after we’d sold but has failed, so in rough terms I can confirm that I left about a buck on the table due to covering the short in the mid-$17s instead of the $16. As previously alluded, this horrific development is bound to weigh heavily on my professional and personal life, not.
2)      GORO declared its 6c monthly dividend at the end of October, as we’d forecast it would in the analysis of IKN181 dated October 21st. This helped GORO stock briefly regain $17 until the last of our developments kicked in...
3)      The class action suits that we noted in IKN182 on closing our coverage are now multiplying against GORO. I don’t know if the page catches them all (and frankly I’m not going to bother checking further) but the Yahoo Finance GORO new page has 11 firms now with class action files open against the company.
4)      GORO reached agreement on those “missing” 2,300 oz Au that we mentioned in IKN181’s NOBS analysis,  has taken a  $3.7m charge related and re-stated its 1q12 and 2q12 filings as a result. The size of the re-state isn’t that big a deal under normal circumstances and the grand scheme of things but 1) when it’s from a company that needs all the free cash flow it can muster to cover the all-important monthly dividend, it’s a pain for them and 2) it makes the company look amateurish (which was my personal and wholly subjective opinion already, but it surely adds objective fuel to the fire).
 
So with all these four in position, we come to the reason behind today’s brief update on GORO, prompted by a mail received from reader and regular mailpal MP who wrote:
 
“Surely they will have to cut the dividend to pay the legal fees to defend against the piling class action lawsuits...”
 
The answer is that I don’t think so in 2012, but that’s probably the case in 2013. The reasons are that 1) I still think, even with that $3.7m restatement of earning in the first half of 2012, that GORO will have enough “cash flow from mine site operations” (if you recall that weird, semi-BS metric it uses and the way it dedicates 1/3 of it to dividends) to cover its 6c/month dividends in what’s left of 2012 (basically two months). Then 2) we note that GORO calculates its dividends on a yearly basis using projected cash flows, not on any given quarter’s results. This means that the company is more likely to adjust downwards (or even suspend fully) dividends when it comes to calculations for 2013 and 3) we note that the class action suits being gathered against GORO right now are set to close their lead plaintiffs in late December (I’ve seen December 24th on several of the releases). This suggests that even though GORO may be preparing its defence already, the big bills and legal wranglings that will cost them  (i.e. their shareholders) plenty in billed hours won’t start until 2013. Again, this leaves the cash generated in 2012 in the hands of the dividend payees.
 
The bottom line is that I’m fairly confident about calling GORO to pay its final two months of 6c dividends in 2012. However, all eyes should be on the 4q12 production report that should appear some time mid-January. If that’s soft, then the writing will be on the wall for the January 2013 dividend at the end of that month and subsequent months as well. The bottom line is that although the legal sharks are now circling in a pack around GORO, there’s every chance that it will retain status quo until the end of this year and as such keep its current share price intact. However, 2013 looks less certain and it will all depend on whether (and for the first time ever) GORO management can deliver on the higher production rates it has guided for in the quarters coming. Don’t hold your breath on that, but for the time being I’m not uncovering my short shares and remain neutral on GORO.


President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner's net worth: Just lucky I guess

Here's a link to a La Nacion report on the latest net worth declarations of the Kirchner family and estate (after the death of Nestor) and here's one of the charts ripped from the report and annoted in Eeeengleeesh by your humble scribe:

Nothing untoward there, right? Mind you, it pales in comparison to ex-Prez Carlos Menem, who famously threw a lavish party at his La Rioja retreat back in his day to celebrate "his first billion dollars"

Osisko going up her beaver

We have more merger news in the junior space, as Osisko (OSK.to) announces its friendly bid for Queenston Mining (QMI.to), owners of the high quality 'Upper Beaver' gold project in the Great White North. Here's the link to the NR and congrats go to reader M, because....well, he knows why.

Time to remove Tommy Humphreys' website link from this blog

And also remove his site from my RSS. And never bother about his views again, or consider him anything except just another bullshit merchant who perpetuates the stinking mess of corruption, lies and rip-offs that we know as the Canadian capital markets. If your idea of "global leadership and opportunities" (the blurb on  your  CEO.ca website, not mine) is to tout the subscription service of thief and liar Thom Calandra, a proven securities fraudster who has been banned by the SEC for his unsavoury, self-serving, front-running practices, then you're not a serious player. You're an asshole Tommy, goodbye.

UPDATE: As Tommy Humphreys has just cancelled his subscription to The IKN Weekly I think we can safely assume that he's read this post today.

Chart of the day is...

...copper. dailies:


Deflation! Oh my God! All Goona Die! 

11/11/12

The IKN Weekly, out now


IKN184 has just been sent to subscribers and there's been a bounceback from one of you due to a full inbox, so shoot over a mail if you didn't get yours. Anyway, this week's has a couple of changes to the recos as we move towards the end-year target of covering more producers and less explorers, a process that started back in September. 


Lest we forget


We are the Dead. Short days ago
We lived, felt dawn, saw sunset glow,
Loved and were loved, and now we lie
In Flanders fields.

We will never forget. We will always remember.