There is so much here that IKN agrees with...

...and so little that doesn't directly apply to the way your humble scribe views this humble corner of cyberspace that the best, nay only, thing to do is to link to Ritholtz's post right here and kindly request viewers to go read. IKN's cap is duly doffed to the eloquence of the argument.

UPDATED: Is Colombia Crest (CLB.v) a victim of kidnapping in Colombia? No it's Braeval

Unofficial word from a Colombia based source is that Colombia Crest (CLB.v) is the company that's suffered from this ELN attack. We wait for official word, so until then consider this rumour rather than fact, please:

BOGOTA, Colombia -- Colombia's military chief says the country's second-largest rebel band has kidnapped five gold mining workers in a northern province. They include a Canadian, two Peruvians and two Colombians.
Gen. Alejandro Navas tells The Associated Press that the five were seized today by two dozen rebels of the leftist National Liberation Army in the Bolivar state municipality of Norosi.
The rebel band known as the ELN has continues here

When better and on-record info is available, this post will get an update.

UPDATE: We now have word that it's Braeval (BVL.to), not CLB.v that's the victim. Apologies for any inconvenience caused and words will be exchanged with your humble scribe's Colombia contact forthwith.

UPDATE 2: Here's the BVL.to NR

We like it when Calibre Mining (CXB.v) goes up because...

...we get more posts at MOMN. Ten entries today and counting.

Candente (DNT.to)

O RLY?

From what we hear, today's pro-mine rally organized by Candente people supporting Candente's (DNT.to) mine project in Cañaris managed to get 35 people grouped together. Nice job guys, let's see how Sunday goes numbers-wise.

Jaguar Mining (JAG): New management, same old bullshit

Well, your humble scribe had to laugh his dry, ironic, my-stars-check-out-the-brass-neck, screw-this-chutzpah-filled-asshole-management-team laugh when reading the headline vomited out by Jaguar Mining (JAG) (JAG.to) this evening:

"Jaguar Mining Meets Full Year 2012 Production Targets"

And we then read that JAG produced 102,823 ounces of gold last year. So let's just check on that headline claim, shall we?

• In its 2011 year end report, published March 2012, JAG forecast production of between 150,000 and 160,000 ounces of gold.
• In its 1q12 report, published May 2012, JAG forecast production of between 120,000 and 130,000 ounces of gold.
•  In its 2q12 report, published August 2012, JAG forecast production of between 110,000 and 120,000 ounces of gold.
•  In its 3q12 report, published November 2012, JAG forecast production of between 100,000 and 110,000 ounces of gold.

Or in chart form, it looks like this:

Or put another way, JAG didn't meet its "full year 2012 production target", it met an end December target that it set in November.

Or put another way, the management team may have changed but the corporate policy of obfuscation and utter bullshit at JAG remains 100% intact.

Or put another way, WHEN WILL THESE FUCKWIT JUNIOR MINING COMPANIES STOP LYING TO THE WORLD?

Or put another way, do us all a favour JAG and just...

The Can of Corn drops Tahoe Resources (THO.to) (TAHO) from its 2013 Focus List, lowers target from $34.50 to $28

And the reason? Guatemala risk, wouldn't you know it? Or to quote Canaccord, the decision is...

"...based on risk-adjusting our lower valuation given concern with recent events in Guatemala."

Yup the same risk that IKN has been patiently explaining for months on end is now getting a bit of attention from serious people in suits instead of just third rate blogs. The funny thing is that just one sentence later they make of point of maintaining the spec buy call, they're confident THO will get its missing operations permit "in 1h13" and that THO's future will be happy and shiny thanks to permitting, commissioning and further exploration success. Which makes you wonder just why they dropped it from their focus list and downgraded it. Hell's bells, you Canucks are confusing people.

66% of Guatemalans oppose mining activity in their country

The link is here and the story is that since mid-2012, the percentage of Guatemalans against mining activity in their country has risen by three points. Nowadays two out of three people in the country don't want mining there.

Data collected by the reputable local pollster Prodatos between Jan 3 and 8 (i.e. before the latest incident at the Tahoe Resources (THO.to) (TAHO) project that ended with two company security guards dead) and published by reputable local newspaper, Prensa Libre. Margin of error +/-2.8%.

Chart of the day is...

...the US Dollar (USD) index, weeklies:

It would seem that the collapse of modern society has been temporarily delayed, due to lack of interest.

Candente Copper (DNT.to): There will be blood

The good news for you mining stock spec playing people is that you have two full trading days to get out of this stock before the next round of protests at the Cañariaco project start on Sunday January 20th. The bad news is that the government is now setting itself up for a head-on clash with the Cañaris local protesters by telling the Peruivan general public that there are political interests behind the protests that will start Sunday (unless DNT withdraws by then, which it won't) and the whole thing is being organized by the same people who brought you the Conga protests. Since those words this morning from the VP mining minister we've already had the spin starting that elicits the expected pavlovian dog responses from its audience and the temperature has started to stoke up.

If you're long DNT, consider youself duly warned.

Great Panther Silver (GPR.to) (GPL) getting better?

The 4q12 numbers today from Great Panther Silver (GPR.to) (GPL) showed better production of silver and more throughput tonnages. Here's how the silver production stacks up to previous quarters:

That's 453,934 oz Ag and looks better. However, there still seems to be a ways to go on efficiency.

That second chart hints at continued high cash costs (over $13/oz in 3q12) but we didn't get a cash cost number in today's release, so until GPR can show it can produce Ag more efficiently, not just in larger quantities, this overtouted story remains expensive at $210m mkt cap and the easy avoid it's been for years.

Chart of the day is...

...the gold/platinum ratio:

The move to parity is making headlines, so a view of this ratio is all fashion and that.But apart from those ooga booga SUPPLY FEARS! can anyone tell me what's different about this obviously speculative move to that of the move to sub-parity in early 2012?

Tahoe Resources (THO.to) (TAHO) attackers "narcotraffickers, band of assassins, terrorists"

Here's the report from Guatemalan newspaper 'Siglo21', here's the translation:

Attackers Linked To Narcos

14 Jan 2013

The minister of government, Mauricio López Bonilla, said that the people responsible for the disturbances on Friday night in San Rafael Las Flores come from the Mataquescuintla and Santa Maria Xelapán areas of Jalapa and are connected with narcotrafficking and assassinations. 

This is not the first time that actions against the mine, subsidiary of Tahoe Resources, have occurred. On November 19th 2012 a mob set five vehicles and a mine truck on fire and stole a large quantity of explosives on the Mataquescuintla road towards San Rafael.

According to López, this group may be involved with the recent events. He also said that they are involved in narcotrafficking and assassinations. "They have guns and explosives, they are people accused of murders and we have already tried to enter the zone with search warrants last year, but to no avail", he said.

The minister said that this case deserves special treatment, which will focus in pursuing these armed groups. However, he emphasized that in Mataquescuintla there is little police presence.

"They are terrorists"

President Otto Pérez said that these acts come from terrorists groups. "One thing is to be against an economic activity such as mining, another is to commit acts of terrorism", he said.

I think this means we can take that clock down now

Tahoe Resources (THO.to) (TAHO) told us about the deaths at its Escobal mine project today Monday (the ones IKN told you about on Saturday) and also said this further down the page:

Permitting & Project Update

The final permit required for exploitation of the Escobal project was not received in 2012 as anticipated. "The Company was notified by the Guatemalan government in the first quarter of 2012 that all legal requirements for approval of the exploitation license have been met. The Guatemalan President and the Minister of Energy and Mines have reassured us that the license is forthcoming," said Ron Clayton, Tahoe''s Chief Operating Officer.

The fact that it's bleedin' obvious THO hasn't got its permit aside, at least the company has admitted its error. Now it all depends on what "forthcoming" means, does it not? Well, I know what it means in places like Canada, the USA, the UK etc, but we've yet to be enlightened on the deeper concepts of the word in Guatemala.

Anyway, with THO's admission of huevo en cara I think we can dispose of that there clock, no? We got to 14 days, not bad.

When "avoid" is the right call (from IKN193)

This was the introduction section to IKN193, out yesterday:

When “avoid” is the right call

Disciple: “Does a dog have Buddha nature?”

Siddhartha Gautama: “Mu”

 

As the exchange of news releases on Saturday between First Quantum (FM.to) and Inmet (IMN.to) demonstrate (1) the cordial “soft hostile” feel around FM’s bid to buy IMN is starting to harden up. But what’s also evident is how the market has come off its original assumption that either a counterbid or a sweetened bid was a near certainty, with the evidence from the money-talks-BS-walks end of the show, the IMN share price action:

 

Friday’s IMN.to close of $71.74 is under the FM $72 ticket-price on the deal and either indicates players aren’t expecting a counterbid or that there’s a growing danger the deal will fall through. As we noted in IKN189 when analysing the deal just after it all began, the risk to IMN shares is greater than just a couple of dollars, as the move IMN enjoyed once it became clear FM was on the chase is closer to $20. Here’s how we summed up the analysis in IKN189 at the time:

 

“...I don’t think today’s news from FM.to offers much of an arbitrage opportunity to the smaller player, there are downside risks in both stocks, an obvious counterbidder isn’t clear (though admittedly it’s always possible to get one from some quarter or another) and even if a sweetener comes, chances are that it’s not going to be the size that makes smaller arbitrage plays worthwhile.”

 

Of course, there’s still a long way to go with this story and this weekend’s moving up of gears from both company boardrooms shows we’re entering a new phase, but the assumptions of higher final prices for IMN is looking rather rash today, whatever might happen in the future. These calls didn’t come from the higher percentage shareholders either, as this NR (2) from 15.92% shareholder in IMN, Leucadia, makes plain.

 

“...based on current publicly available information, and in the absence of changed circumstances or new information (including an alternative transaction that would provide greater value), Leucadia would intend to tender the common shares of Inmet...”

 

The people with real skin in the game don’t shout from rooftops, that job is left to our old pals in the retail brokerage community, because at $72 or $75 a shares and trading a million shares a day there’s a whole bunch of commissions to be made, which is why emergency updates and newspaper reports were chock full of quotes and serious sounding advice from serious sounding people with letters after their names about how FM would have to bid higher or shufflings of the packs to consider just who would come in as White Knight (not if, but when).

 

Calls to “avoid” a trade or stock or company aren’t market glamour calls, they don’t get applause, they don’t have the power to produce alpha, they’re never remembered in the same way as Gautama Buddha’s philosophical or religious responses (to cut a long story short, the word “mu” means neither yes or no). They’re not the ones required from a world hungry for action and decision and to cap it off, avoid calls are just as difficult to get right as a long/short call. They’re not the ones that bring commish to broker houses either...what, you expected independence and advice in the best interest of the customer? I like avoid calls.

x

On the road

Your humble scribe is out there doing things, so posting will be light for a couple of days. In the meantime we recommend here and here for all your market and python needs. 

The IKN Weekly, out now

IKN193 has just been sent to subscribers (and also to reader VS, because he's a class act). The main chunk today is a look at the precious metal junior your humble scribe will be buying next week.