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1/26/13

Fashion in Cañaris...

...with the womenfolk in their tradition clothing. And the menfolk, too.



1/25/13

BREAKING (and updated): Two dead in Cañaris police confrontation

Update coming as soon as I get more info, but breaking report is that two people are dead in clashes between protesters at the Candente Copper (DNT.to) Cañariaco project and police. We note that on Jan 16th IKN said "there will be blood". It took just nine days, sadly.

UPDATE: Unconfirmed information says the two dead are locals who were part of a group that blocked the access road to the Cañariaco mining camp. Two names are being mentioned, but until there's official confirmation it's probably best not to publish.

UPDATE 2: Peru's national paper La Republica now reporting the deaths. Here's a quick translation of the La Republica early report:
Lambayeque: Two dead after confrontation between locals and police in Cañaris
Friday 25th Jan. 3:37pm 
The incident left at least 10 injured people who have been taken to hospital 
Today Friday saw two dead in a confrontation between around 100 police officers from the national police foces and 400 anti-mining locals protesters from Cañaris and Incahuasi (Lambayeque) who blocked the "Marayhucaca" road, the access road to the Candente Copper mining campsite. 
The victims have been identified as Santos Tantarico and Lindaura Sánchez, according to the activist Rocio Silva Santisteban via her Twitter account. 
Meanwhile, the chief of territorial police of Chiclayo, Colonel Jorge Linares Ripalda, said that the action taken involved a member of the Public Ministry who was attempting to establish a dialogue with the protesters.

UPDATE 3: Oh this is cute: The chief of police says denied that there had been any deaths and that his officers had only used "dissuasive force", via the use of tear gas and rubber bullets. Repeated here.

UPDATE 4: The original source of the names for the La Republica report above now seems to be backtracking. Previously she said "confirmed" on the two deaths but now she says that "Cañaris confused information: family members and local leaders from Marayhuaca say that there are 2 dead, Minister Pedraza (says) that there are only injured people". Time will tell which side is right and the markets are now closed, so your humble scribe will leave it for the real news services to work it all out and bring you the story (as they certainly will). No need to read a third-rate site such as this for your information, for sure. Over and out.

UPDATE 5: ok ok, one more update. Both locals and police now confirm that there are no deaths to report, fortunately. However there are 24 injured, some seriously and at least one, according to a doctor on the scene, from gunshot wounds. This directly contradicts the police who said that no live ammo firearms were used. In other words there still was blood. And one other thing: you thought locals were pissed before? You ain't seen nothing yet.


It's almost as if the market had heard that the Alderon (ADV.to) feas for the Kami project was going to be published on January 9th, isn't it?



But the very thought that a Stan Bharti company would be privately tipping off its favoured friends and fine folk so that they could make a quick killing at the expense of market rubes? Nah, surely not!

Candente Copper (DNT.to): The locals of Cañaris willing to negotiate...

...under two conditions. According to today's reports out of Cañaris (here's an example), locals at the site of the proposed copper mine owned by Candente Copper (DNT.to) would be willing to sit down and negotiate with the company about the controversial project, but ask for two conditions:

1) DNT puts a halt on its current exploration work (i.e. the drilling at the Cañariaco Norte target) that was the spark that set off this latest round of protests.

2) The negotiation meeting is set up in the town of Cañaris itself, rather than in the nation's capital Lima or the regional capital Lambayeque.

To be honest, that sounds reasonable. The ball's in your court, Ms. Freeze.


Important: Gangnam Style at 16,400 feet above sea level

Three employees at Barrick's (ABX) Pascua Lama project on the Chile/Argentina border set a new Gangnam Style altitude record (errr...probably) of 5,000 metres above sea level (16,400 feet in old money).



The good news: No need to watch it right through.

Spain's El Pais newspaper now in the doo-doo with Venezuela...

...for this front page photo:


The reason? The newspaper of record in Spain (and often cited as the premier media source in the Spanish-speaking world) said it's a photo of Hugo Chávez, it turns out that it's not Hugo Chávez, El Pais quickly retracted the photo from editions and its website (which, strangely for that publication carried no byline) but the horse had already bolted and now  Venezuela has started legal action against 'El Pais'. In the words of Venezuela's Communications Minster Ernesto Villegas (translated):
"The Executive Vice-President (Nicolás Maduro) has instructed us to take action leading to a legal demand against this newspaper for the grave offensive for which the dignity of the President of the Republic is affected by a false photograph."

So it looks like El Pais royally screwed up here and there will be consequences. Mind you, it would be nice to get a real snap of the man from real Venezuelan government sources, wouldn't it? After all, there seems to be a teensy weensy bit of an information gap about the state of Hugo, so perhaps it's time for the Venezuelan government to be....what?...how can we say?...a little bit more....errr...transparent?

Oh how they scolded your humble scribe...

...in the fourth quarter of 2012 when he refused to jump on the Huldra Silver (HDA.v) pump and pointed out a few basic weaknesses in the company story, both in email exchanges (with multiple persons) and also in an episode of our semi regular snarkfest "Mining PRs and the Ottotrans™" (part 65).


We apologize for possessing a memory. 

(Uff, I'm considering setting up a short-only service. It's the only thing I seem to be good at doing these days).




Chart of the day is...

...Apple (AAPL) versus the junior miners ETF (GDXJ), one year period:



This is why nobody in the juniors sector should be gloating at the recent reversal in AAPL. Well, not too much anyway.

A flash update...

...has just been sent to subscribers, one hour before the opening bell this sunny Friday morning. Actionable.

1/24/13

Pachakuti!

There's something wonderful about a Spanish PM coming to Peru and begging the locals to plough money into the country that plundered the merry fark out of them 400 years ago but is now bankrupt. The Inca concept of pachakuti showing through...and right on time, too.

1/23/13

Hi all

Taken two hours ago.



It's now slamming it down with rain, about 15°c colder and we're sheltering in the small town about 10km from this photo. Such is the way with weather in rainy seasons at 12,500 feet above sea level, but it does give a decent excuse to check in here and catch up with those everso everso important daily moves in the market. As for the location? Your best guesses welcomed.

1/22/13

Light posting this week

Just a quick word to inform that your humble scribe now finds his humble self at a location with very limited interwebz access, so posting will be light for a couple of days. Hope you have a nice week.

1/21/13

Wow

I don't think I've ever considered an article on any aspect of Latin American politics brilliant before today. This article by Brian Winter of Reuters starts with an interesting subject matter, that of the Brazilian clown Tiririca who famously ran for congress, got there and since then has turned out to be one of the better members of the bunch. However Winter uses him as a starting point rather than a finished subject, and lays on thoughts that must have been gestating in his brain for some time. IKN heartily recommends this report to anyone interested in world politics, not just those of Brazil or LatAm, so pull up your favourite comfy chair, a cup of something warm and read this long form note of great merit.

What we learn about fund managers who invest in junior gold mining stocks

We learn via this Gold Report piece that:

  • They are all male, old, bald or balding and ugly.
  • They all like junior gold mining stocks.
  • They think gold is a good investment in 2013.


In other words, we learn nothing.

OceanaGold (OGC.to) (OGC.ax) 4q12 numbers

I have to say that I was a little surprised to see OGC trade slightly lower at the open this morning after this NR had hit the wires, because the 4q12 numbers were pretty darned good. 



Maybe the market was a bit leery about the teething problems reported at Didipio? Maybe it's because the NR hit after the Oz market was shut and as that's the opinion which normally drives the stock (and USA is closed), Canada didn't really know what to think? I dunno, but since the open OGC has moved up a couple of pennies and volumes are pretty good for a closed NYSE day too. Might be a sleeper.

Anyway, more OGC cut'n'slice charts on Sunday, subbers

Watching Galway Gold (GLW.v)

Galway Gold (GLW.v), the second spin-out company to come from the recent sale of Galway Resources (ex-GWY.v) to Eike Batista, started trading this morning...



...and it's doing good business, comfortably over 40c. So for those of you who are counting, the days around the Batista buyout saw GWY trading around $2.15 to $2.20. For that price you would have got yourself:

  • $2.05 in cash from the deal (paid)
  • A share of Galway Metals (GWM.v) that's priced now at 5c
  • A share of Galway Gold (GLW.v) and let's call that 42c today.

Or in other words, it was an easy 15% arb. Which is why your humble scribe bought GWY at $2.19.

A Colombian army memo on FARC activity

The following memo/mail has been sent to your humble scribe and although there's no way of verifying its authenticity, the source is trustworthy and totally reliable, the sound of the memo is correct and in light of recent events in Colombia, its contents are holding up to examination as well. So we're running with it and allowing the reader to do with it what they will.

Below is the original Spanish, above is your author's translation


Security Front Meeting BR-14

Good afternoon to all,

On January 15th the Commander of Brigade XIV, with HQ at the port of Berrio, and responsile for the security of Northeast Antioquia region, calls to a meeting all company representatives of the region and according to the security agreement with the armed forces, said meeing will inform on the intentions of the FARC armed group for this year, thanks to the capture of one of its head personnel who had in his possession documents that had been written in a meeting with heads of the guerrilla group recently.

They are the following:

1) Increase in assassinations of public figures (mayors, political representatives, members of the public armed forces)
2) Increase in extortion and vaccinations (against companies, unions and commerce)
3) Penetration of universities and schools, businesses, State offices (looking for information to promote its illicit activities and the creation of a group named "Young Rebels")
4) Hit strategic targets in order to destabilize the State, cause chaos and destructive force (energy, hydrocarbons, mining)
5) Attack permanent armed forces bases 
6) Increment in hijacking of directors and company contractors in coordination with Bacrim (criminal groups or paramilitaries)
7) The start of an offensive, in two phases, the first between January 18th and February 2nd and the second from January 3rd onwards.
8) Supplanting (disguising as or feigning to be company employees to gain access to various locations in order to commit acts of sabotage).
9) Attraction maneuvers (faking of small terrorist actions in certain sectors to attract attention in order to commit larger acts of destruction elsewhere).



Reunion Frente de Seguridad BR-14
 
Buenas tardes a todos, el día 15 de Enero el Comandante de la Brigada XIV, con sede en puerto Berrio, y responsable de la seguridad del Nordeste Antioqueño, cita a reunión a todas las empresas representativas de la región y  que sostienen convenio de seguridad con las Fuerzas Militares, en dicha reunión se dieron a conocer las intenciones del Grupo armado FARC, para el presente año, debido a la captura de uno de sus cabecillas, a quien en su poder se le encontraron documentos que habían sido suscritos en una reunión sostenida por los jefes de este grupo guerrillero en días pasados.
 
Estas son las siguientes:
 
1.- Incremento de asesinatos a personalidades (Alcaldes, Políticos representativos, Integrantes de la Fuerza Pública).
2.- Aumento de las Extorsiones y Vacunas (contra las empresas, gremios y comercio)
3.- Penetración de Universidades y escuelas, empresas, estamentos del Estado (buscando información para llevar a cabo sus actividades ilícitas y la creación de un grupo denominado “Juventudes Rebeldes”)-
4.- Golpear objetivos estratégicos buscando la desestabilización del Estado, caos y Fuerza de destrucción,  (Energía, hidrocarburos y Minería).
5.- Atacar Bases Fijas de las Fuerzas Armadas.
6.- Incremento del “SECUESTRO”  a Directivos y Contratistas de Empresas en coordinación con las Bacrim (Bandas Criminales o Paramilitares).
7.- Inicio de una Acción Ofensiva, en dos fases, la primera que Iniciara el 18 de Enero al 02 de Febrero y la segunda del 03 de Enero en adelante.
8.- Suplantación, (haciéndose pasar por funcionarios de empresas para lograr la entrada a los diferentes sitios donde llevar a cabo sus acciones de Sabotaje).
9.- Maniobras de atracción, (fingir acciones terroristas pequeñas en unos sectores y llamar la atención, para lograr el desarrollo de actividades de mayor destrucción  en otros).



Two downgrades

Nicholas CampbellSoup of the Can of Corn seems to disagree with Adam Graf of Dalman Rose. While Graf  famously considered Golden Minerals (AUM.to) (AUMN) as a $104 per share and turned his rich client base into not-so-rich clients as a result, CampbellSoup has finally seen the light and dropped his rating (hold from spec buy) and target $4.75 from $7) on the dog. 

Meanwhile, Steve Green of TD Sec has consistently shown more nous about AuRico (AUQ) than the rest of the sellside anal yst community in Frostyland and never fallen for the BS hype this company generates. This is underscored today as he drops his target on the stock to $6.50 (from $7) and the call to reduce (from hold). This is the correct anal ysis of the day and Mr. Green wins the internets.


1/20/13

The IKN Weekly, out now


IKN194 has just been sent to subscribers and it's not that often it occurs, but today's is a pretty good edition methinks. Here's the cover letter that went out with it.

Good Sunday evening,
The main event today is the upgrading of one of our covered stocks to 'Top Pick' status, the first time in a long time that this has happened. We also check out production results and take a careful look at a couple of hot political risk events in Peru and Colombia. Plenty more besides.
All feedback welcomed.
Best, O



Everybody loves Ollanta

He scores 53% in the monthly approval poll for January 2013, out today:


Data from here, along with more numbers and Spanish looking words.