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See if you can spot the exact date Sandspring Resources (SSP.v) announced its innovative funding deal with Silver Wheaton (SLW)
But hey, who are we to kvetch on the formidable due diligence powers of SLW?
What's that you say? Pascua Lama? Oh stop splitting hairs!
A silly company for silly people.
The Real has taken a right battering, but the interesting one is the Peru Nuevo Sol. Its Central Bank has been pretty aggressive in protecting the PEN from downside and considering that Chile and Peru have similar exports mixes, there's the type of gap beginning to appear that would appeal to the currency futures traders.
Some context is necessary because Lara Exploration (LRA.v) has had a rough year, just like the rest of the sector...
...and let's not kid ourselves that the rally is on anything but modest volumes. However, the last few days of price action in LRA has been more than interesting...
- On the left the date of each survey. Simple.
- The next five lines are the raw data from Kitco, including a) the number of people asked (part), b) the number of responses garnered c) the number of bullish calls d) bearish calls e) and neutral calls on the week ahead in gold.
- Next the numbers were crunched into the percentage of bulls bears and neutrals, which you see in the centre of the above table (all cute with a colour code, too). Also in this section, I’ve highlighted in peach the most popular call of the week, i.e. the direction in which the overall survey is pointing for gold.
- Then comes paydirt. First the price of the gold bullion ETF (GLD that weekend and then the percentage change in the price of gold that week (result %).
- The final column of the table is the answer to a simple question: Was the survey accurate that week in its prediction for the price of gold. To decide this, I assumed any plus/minus movement on the week of under 0.5% was neutral, then above was a bullish result and below a bearish result.
I'm sorry, does that say 230,000 ounces of gold in your brand new 43-101 resource?
Are you guys telling us that after all this schamoozle, you only had...? Ah, forget it.
Oh my stars, this one's going to be fun.
1) Gold, at ~$1,200/oz today, is close to its bottom. I'm going to allow perhaps another $100 and make the 2014 low call $1,100/oz and the high $1,500/oz, which we'll see as the year draws to a close.
2) Quality junior mining companies and explorecos will finally split away from the cruddy juniors and we'll see an all-important gap develop between the companies that need to die and those that will survive and eventually thrive.
3) Copper will be weak in 2013, with supply outstripping demand and new lows of under $3/lb registered (put me down for $2.80/lb on multiple days, not just a single spike). Average for the year to be around $3.10/lb
4) Uranium won't break $40/lb at any point and the sector will continue to get the rah-rah from the promo people still holding their large bags.
5) Dilma Rousseff, President of Brazil, will be re-elected in 2014. The election is set for October 5th and Dilma will win it, no matter whether her coutnry manages to lift the major trophy of next year or not (see below). Dilma is liked and likeable, gets the key backing of Lula and notwithstanding bumps in the road during her current terms (economy not motoring well, corruption scandals in her government) has done a more than acceptable job so far. She'll get a second bite, no worries.
6) Evo Morales, President of Bolivia, will be re-elected in 2014. The presidentials in Bolivia are currently slated for October 5th 2014 (that might move by a couple of weeks, or might not) and even though there are doubts as to whether Evo can run again (Supreme court says yes because the constitution is a new one, opposition says no it's against the law because re-election is still not allowed) the chances are that he'll be the MAS Party candidate and once there, win his next (first? other?) mandate.
7) Juan Manuel Santos, President of Colombia, will be re-elected in 2014. We complete our trifecta of presidents to get second terms with Juanma. He's currently favourite without being a lock for the May 25th 2014 vote, but as the FARC talks make slow but sure progress (contrary to my 2013 prediction) and the economy is doing ok (GDP growth modest but acceptable, unemployment now at record lows) he should have enough in the tank to defeat the main opposition that comes from the Uribe-backed right wing, whose anti-talks/anti-FARC-deal candidate looks set to be Oscar Zuluaga.
8) Both Argentina and Venezuela will continue to defy and confound the non-stop barrage of criticism from the western media and get through 2014 just fine. Inflation in both countries will still be a problem, but there will be no defaulting of bonds, no forced changes of government no large-scale citizens uprising, no matter what dreams the country haters might have to the contrary.
9) Juan Martin Del Potro will win at least one of the Grand Slam tournaments this year. Argentina's ace tennis player is up against tough competition in Joker, Rafa, Murray and even a Roger who could put in a swan song, but I reckon it's time for Delpo to make good on the promise of a few years ago and shake off time lost through niggling injuries.
10) And finally, the big one: Brazil will win the 2014 World Cup. I'll be cheering for Argentina, but my head will rule my heart on the predictive stakes (love to see them both in the final, though). Obvious dangers are (and in order) Germany, Spain, Italy and Holland. The rest make the show, not the semis or the final.
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