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6/16/14

Argentina and bonds and defaults and business death and stuff and money: Things the media will show you today (and things they won't)

Here's one of the charts they'll show you today: The five day chart of the Argentina main stock index, the Merval:



OH MY GOD! ALL GONNA DIE! 4% DOWN! etc etc [UPDATE: Right on time, here's the current headline story in La Nacion in Argentina, complete with necessary worried floor brokers photo]

Here's one they won't show you: The one year chart of the very same Argentina main stock index, the Merval:



Notice anything?

As for the specific issue of Argentina defauling on bonds, here's how I explained it on the Twittermachine this morning. It's so simple you can indeed cover the whole "drama" in 140 characters:
Argentina will say: 
1)We're not in default 
2)We'll pay 
3)Only US isn't allowing us to pay 
4)Creditors line up at new window, we pay

Nuff said. but whatever happens, be very very clear on one thing: For Cristina this whole "not pay the Vulture Funds" thing has become personal. There's no way, absolutely totally completely no way at all that they get their money. Here's why:


Know your history.