...when fulfilling the following criteria:
1) Ripping into Eric Sprott
2) Ripping into Kind World News
3) Ripping into dubious chart-speak and technical analysis bunkum
4) Providing more reasonable chart analysis in its place*
All of which is found in today's example, which makes this Screwtape post a must-read.
*Yes, even your TA-sceptic author is open to reason and logical arguments based on charts. Occasionally.
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...when fulfilling the following criteria:
The superb Codex, by Radiohead:
From the album The King of Limbs.
An uplifting, snappy foot-tapper that'll have you whizzing into the weekend.
Ten days ago on IKN:
"If your chosen analyst, broker or fund manager can't recognize the start of a bull market when it's placed right before their very eyes, underlined, highlighted and lit up in bright neon letters (or simply refuses to tell you because you're an unimportant retailer and they need to place the big money first) then you need to stop listening to the dumbass and find somebody who'll make you money. The time for caution has passed."
Ten day chart of GLD, GDX. GDXJ:
Today's plain facts include:
- GLD holdings started 2013 at over 1,350 metric tonnes.
- They bottomed out on January 14th at 789.56mt
- They've recovered to 813.3mt since then, which isn't a bad move and the clear change of a trend (the 24 tonnes difference is roughly a billion dollars worth of gold at a U$1,300/oz average, to give you some idea). But a bubble forming? Please, give us all a break.
...the gold/silver ratio, 12 months:
And as usual, the selective amnesia of technical analysts has kicked in. If you want a bit of boredom in your day, ask any of the specialists who told you silver would fly once gold broke U$1,360/oz what went wrong. They'll answer with a whole bunch of terms, but "i was wrong" won't figure in their answer.
Anyway, today's chart comes with a sound effect: That muffled thudding sound you hear in the background is caused by silverbugs, all a-stomping of their feet and muttering that it isn't jolly well fair.
Avast, me hearties:
There's only one problem with this "iron ore down, copper down so therefore gold will go down" theory...
...that certain corners of the metaloblogosphere are currently attempting to promote:
People, the sooner you realize that we're at the start of a bull market for gold stocks, and the sooner you stop listening to the market experts who are snaffling up the best prices while telling the greenhorns to be cautious (they'll get you in later when they're fully positioned), the better it will be for your back pocket. Or as stated to subbers this weekend (end of intro section piece):
"So yes, of course there’s still a lot of nerves about and people telling you to be cautious; thing is that’s what happens at the beginning of a bull market. In fact it can’t possibly be any other way, because a fully confident sector would have already pushed stocks and valuations higher and be in the mature phase of the cycle.
"In the end, to follow and be interested in this most volatile of market sectors you have to be a speculator at heart, it’s necessary to take risks. For well over a year it’s been tough going for juniors and a lot of share prices have been crushed. As a result, it’s been a heads-down, no-peeking-over-parapets markets for a long time and in my personal case, no commitment of larger cash (while keeping interest via the shorting of some stocks and some smaller, nearer-term trading ideas in punctual situations). That time is now past at The IKN Weekly, it’s time to get bullish and longer, take more risk on board and hold for longer periods. Big gains await those who can see out the first rougher periods of a bull market, that’s where we are today."
PS: Now on the road for a couple of days. Posting light til Friday.
...uranium, from here:
It beggars belief that the U-pump crowd are assuming the Japan policy news hasn't been baked in already, too. This whole spec is based on wishful thinking about a metal that's not going anywhere, folks. Beware the crowdspeak.
The key is in the volume.
UPDATE: Oh dear. Via reader D your author learns that the same chart was included in the March 7th "Haywood Weekly Dig" pdf as well (page four). And again, no correct credit given. Would you like me to bill you for the data compilation services, Mr Tognetti?
*why it occurs to me to do it on a Monday morning then completely forget the rest of the week is a bit of a mystery to me, but that's how it seems to happen.
...the relative performance of gold (GCJ4), silver (SIK4) and copper (HGK4), 2014 year to date, via their futures contracts:
Silver can't decide whether it's precioussssssssssss or industrial again. That's a warning sign.
Today has seen El Salvador's 2nd round run-off election between the governing FMLN party and opposition ARENA. Everyone expected FMLN to win fairly easilt, but that's not the case, as right now with
1.2% 0.96% of the votes left to be tallied, FMLN has 50.08% 50.07% and ARENA 49.92% 49.93%. That's less than 4,500 4,400 votes to decide who gets to be President and close = problems.
(note: those strikeouts are the updated figures and give you an idea of how darned close this one is)
That's because the right wing ARENA candidate Norman Quijano has just denounced voter fraud, declared himself the winner and has called on the armed forces to intervene. This is not good.
Follow the vote count here at the official government page.
Mike at Central American Politics is strong on El Salvador and can be found here.
Tim's El Salvador Blog is a great info site for English language news on the country. That's here.
IKN252 has just been sent to subscribers. Selling a position, preparing to buy others
Fair to call it a thinking person's pump job.
“This election is different, it is distinctive, it is the most important congressional election in the last fifty years in our country,” said Liberal Party (Partido Liberal-LP) Senator Juan Manuel Galan, who is seeking re-election.