The Daily IKN email digest, get all daily posts sent to you next day (& no ads)
Expect plenty Sibelius in your ears in 2015, it's the 150th anniversary of his birth.
...the US Dollar index, dailies:
Greenback continues to kick pure ass.
Happy New Year to all readers. Make an effort to look after your health in the year ahead.
“If I am wrong, if this gold bull market is over, I will stand in the centre of Robson Square and I will sing Patsy Cline’s So Wrong wearing ladies’ underwear,” Mr. Giustra said in an interview this week.
Frank Giustra, will you keep your word? Or are you going to duck out and be a coward?
Oh yeah, another thing: The kids will love it.
- Barrick wanted to pay the ~U$16m fine that was slapped on it by Chile's Environment Superintendency (SMA), because it considered it a good deal under the circumstances and once paid, they could get on with reactivating their white elephant supreme.
- But the courts stopped them from paying it, saying it was badly done and too little. The case reached the Supreme Court a couple of months ago and the partial ruling came yesterday.
- And the ruling: The Supreme Court says ABX can't pay the $16m because it says the SMA went about its job incorrectly and should have fined Barrick for separate infractions, rather than lumping them all into one fine.
- With this ruling the chances are that ABX is facing a much bigger enviro fine, with estimates ranging between U$130m and U$300m. Yeah, seriously.
- Whether or not that kind of number happens, or whether ABX will eventually pay, is a question for 2015. What we do know is that the SMA has to come up with a new number to fine ABX.
This from Panama's "Critica" newspaper, linked here. Translation your author:
Don't say we didn't warn you.The government of Panama has initiated the paperwork to revoke the operating permit of the Petaquilla Gold mining company, due to its non-compliance in payment of social security dues to its work force, said the Minister of Work today, Luis Ernetso Carles. Carles said that the legal representative of the company, Richard Fifer, was now under criminal charge from the Social Security Office (CSS) due to the non-compliance of social security payments for the company's 604 workers, according to a government communique."The actions of the legal representative of Petaquilla stain the employment opportunities in the country", said Carles, while informing that Petaquilla Gold currently owes three months of salaries and employees debts that total around U$3.8m. The Panamanian Minister showed his concern of the situation faced by the workers, due to the lack of responsibility for the payment of dues by the Canadian capital company.The Petaquilla Gold company is located in the district of Donoso, in the province of Colón, some 130km West of the capital.
PS: the stock recos are on the second part, which is here.
1) Gold to trend up gradually, with a rough U$1,400/oz target for some time at the end of the year. For sure with the normal wobbly stuff along the way and I wouldn't bat an eyelid to see it go under U$1,100/oz again at some point or other, but talk of its utter demise (South of 1k) strikes this author as plain silly talk from people who don't get the sector.
2) The gold/silver ratio to stay high, by which we mean 1/70 or above. It can spike down briefly under that along the way, but I don't expect it to trend down meaningfully. When they call silver "the poor man's gold", the real message is "the choice that poor people make". Semi-on-topic, I'd definitely hold gold miner stocks over silver miner stocks this year.
3) Uranium will go nowhere again. We're in the high $30s today, it could fluctuate up into a 4-handle, down through to the 2s, but the prediction is to watch it flatline in general terms. Uranium's going the way of the buggy whip, the world has moved on from the fallacy of "near limitless/near free energy" and knows how expensive these things are to decom, the type of cost that's built into projections by serious countries (China an obvious exception to that category).
4) Barrick (ABX) will merge with Newmont (NEM). It's long past fusion date for these two. The sooner the outsized self-important egos on both boards start caring less about themselves and more about their shareholders, the better.
5) Copper to maintain around U$3/lb average for 2014. This is perhaps the toughest and most important commod market to call in the year ahead. Also (and to push my luck on the prediction) it wouldn't surprise me in the least to see Cu weak in the first part of the year, trending higher in the second part. If it exits between $3.10/lb and $3.20/lb I'd be a happy long.
6) Venezuela's government to be bailed out by China. It's no secret that Venezuela's finances are under severe pressure due to the drop in oil prices, but it's not going to lead to a fall in the government in 2015 (sorry haters, it's the way it is). China wants crude oil and has dollars, Venezuela wants dollars and has crude oil, the two countries get along just fine, the synergies are obvious. The question is how much Venezuela will have to cede for the bailout.
7) It's a difficult call this early in the process, but I'm contractually obliged to make a call on the Argentina presidential election so the forecast is for Daniel Scioli to be the next President of Argentina. Main opponent is Massa, in with a squeak is Macri, outsider Randazzo, the rest are just noise. But it's still a very fluid situation so this one is only tentative. For the record, the Argentina vote slated for October is the biggest single political event in LatAm this year and arguably the most important one in terms of regional repercussion potential for the last five or even ten. It's going to be big, noisy and full of FpV/CFK-hate in your English language press (who'll be rooting for Massa and/or Macri).
8) Argentina to win the Copa America 2015, the equivalent of the European Championships for the continent, held in Chile in June/July this year. If that doesn't turn out right, hosts Chile must be in with a strong chance and I'd place them as clear second faves today. FWIW it's easy to bet against a Brazil that will need a couple of years to re-build after its World Cup disaster (no other word for it).
9) River Plate to win the Copa Libertadores (for those of you who don't know, that's the LatAm equivalent of the Champion's League trophy). This is the easiest forecast of the year. Vamo lo millo.
10) Argentina to beat Ireland in the Quarter Finals stage of the 2015 Rugby World Cup, held in the UK in October. How about that for a specific forecast? (Also, the All Blacks for the cup).
...he's one of Chet Idziszek's lackeys. Today's news here, excerpt here:
VANCOUVER, BRITISH COLUMBIA--(Marketwired - Dec 29, 2014) - Astur Gold Corp. (TSX VENTURE:AST)(CDC.F) ("Astur Gold" or the "Company") announces the appointment of Astur Gold Director Mr. Douglas Turnbull as new Chief Executive Officer and President of the Company effective immediately. He is replacing Cary Pinkowski, who is stepping down as Chief Executive Officer and President to pursue other opportunities. The Board of Directors of Astur Gold thank Mr. Pinkowski for his efforts as President and Chief Executive Officer of the Company. Mr. Pinkowski will remain on the Board of Directors."I have great confidence in Doug Turnbull to take over as CEO and President of Astur Gold," stated Mr. Pinkowski. "He was previously a Director of Astur Gold for several years and is very familiar with the Company and its projects."Mr. Turnbull stated: "Although the Company faces many challenges in these difficult times culminating in the recent news about Salave, my decision to take on this position is based on my belief that new opportunities can be sought out for the Company. In the meantime, we will wait to review the detailed report of the decision by the Commission for Environmental Affairs of the Principality of Asturias and to address the specific technical concerns expressed by the Cantabrian Hydrographic Confederation that lead to the recent denial of our permit application. Our immediate focus will be to protect our assets in Spain in the interest of our shareholders and our principal Salave financier, RMB Resources Limited."
"Anyone with a memory about how long ECU Silver bullshitted the world and what that bullshit managed to do with the naive idiot cash poured into it from the incessant GATA-centric pumps (Bill Murphy, Wistar Holt, "Mexico Mike" Kachawhatsit) will know what Altmann is about. The mere fact that the LYD management team is desperate or stupid (or both) enough to want him on board is testament to their business nous: it's zero. Scam pumper scumballs like Altmann shouldn't be on junior mining boards of directors. They should be in jail. Lay with dogs and get fleas, dumbass LYD people."
And here's the price chart of LYD.to from that date to this:
Any further questions?
*I made sure by running a search. Yup, not a mention since then
Santa Rosalia, Baja California Sur (BCS). A large part of the workforce of the El Boleo mining company, located in Santa Rosalia, were evacuated at around 11am today by order of management due to the escape of strongly polluting smoke that threatened to poison personnel at the plant.
According to reports from some of the workforce, several people left the zone with irritated eyes, nausea and stomach aches among other symptoms due to the smoke coming from chimneys that covered all work zones.
This is not the first time that the company has seen a similar situation, according to unofficial reports.
Employees were threatened with losing their jobs if anyone reported the irregularities of the Korean company, according to a reporter in the area.
You need smarter PR, ebola.
Not thinking it through, ebola.
Not killing white people, ebola.
Nobody cares about you, ebola.