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1/15/15

Contrarian trades and a small confession about Bitcoin

Yesterday I stuck up a chart on Bitcoin and its precipitous drop from ~U$290 to ~U$190 in the space of five days. Later my attention was then drawn to how all the know-it-alls in the SERIOUS FINANCIAL WORLD were laughing at Bitcoin, via this post over at Market Narrative. Therefore I did the only thing a knee-jerk stubborn idiot contrarian could possibly do: I bought 10 Bitcoins, paying U$1,870 post-commish*. That's where the small confession comes in: it's for subscribers as I'll usually declare trades before making them and this time I didn't tell them. Then again, it was a non-mining stock trade (and it was smallstuff)...hey I dunno, I just did it. Anyway, I just sold the 10 Bitcoins for U$2,250 post commish. No plans to return to the trade either, it was a one-off for psychological reasons and not for deep expert opinion on the Bitcoin market (of which I have none).

There's something about that moment when everyone isn't just criticizing a market sector but outright ridiculing it. There's a pitch and a tone about it which rarely fails to make the laughers immediately eat their words. If you can ID that tone don't even think twice, take the counterparty, you'll rarely lose. This Bitcoin rebound may be a dead cat bounce, it may be the start of further upside, I don't know and I don't care (because I'm out). But I'll trade the clever-people-about-to-look-stupid-again niche time and time again, wherever I come across it.

*By the time I'd transferred dollars to the right place, which took about 15 minutes of low stress discovery work, they were even lower. And I was surprised how easy it was to get dollars into the bitcoin market these days. I tried it last year with a small amount of money and it was a real mess, very squirrely, which must have put a lot of people off at the time. Yesterday the options to transfer were manifold times easier and quicker. It occurs to me now, today, while writing this post that perhaps the dump in Bitcoin is connected to the new ease of getting in and out of the thing.