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1/22/15

Jottings on the death of Nisman

Argentina's massive story at the moment is getting little more than bare bones coverage in the English world media but anyone even vaguely interested in LatAm affairs should be all over it. I'm not going into the basic circumstances of the case (you can find those in wire stories easily enough) but I want to set a few statements out in public.
  • I'm convinced the government of Argentina is not behind his death. On the basic 'cui bono' level, the CFK government has little to gain (in fact, I'd go as far as to say nothing to gain) and a lot to lose from the destabilization caused by this death. As for Nisman's accusations, they're already looking creaky at best, unsustainable more likely. In Spanish the term for re-hash is 'refrito', there's nothing much new in the report. 
  • I'm not as convinced at this point as CFK about the case being a non-suicide. At this point there are three logical possibilities of 1) it was a plain straight suicide 2) he was "induced to pull the trigger himself", i.e. not a suicide or 3) it was a plain straight assassination. All those three hold substance at this point, none can be ruled out. 
  • Lagomarsino has a lot of explaining to do. A lot.
  • Sergio Massa, apart from a few minor level statements, has been quiet. Which is fair enough, he and his team are probably working out the strategy that best suits his election campaign (yes of course IKN has sympathy for Nisman's loved ones, but works on a realpolitik level). However, when he does come out and say something we'll get to find out just how far to the dark side this nefarious fucker has moved. 
  • I'll give Macri credit. Neither he nor his brand of politics is my cup of tea at all, but he's true to his principles. He's saying the right things in the right way and putting his country before his personal ambitions. It's likely that a person who knows what it feels like to be kidnapped and face death from his captors has deeper insight than the average joe.
  • Lilita Carrió is a joke, a cartoon sketch that might have been funny or intellectually stimulating 20 years ago but is now eye-rollingly bad. 
  • This one is turtles, turtles, turtles all the way down and because of that, I doubt it's going to be as big an influence on the October Presidential election as people assume today in January. On this one I expect to get plenty of pushback from my Argentine friends, but history shows us that fud gets discarded as elections draw nigh. This isn't going to be a difficult one for professional politicos to sidestep come the time. 
  • The anti-CFK press is behaving despicably, Mis-quoting/quoting CFK out of context to make it sound like she said and wrote things that she didn't. The pro-CFK press has rallied to the government's defence quickly and tellingly, the neutral CFK press (eg Buenos Aires Herald), a tome known for its courage, hasn't tried to stick any dirt on the government yet. Of the three groups, the Clarin/Nacion anti-CFK press is by far the worst in all this.