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2/9/15

The difference between the blog and the newsletter

I get asked on that from time to time. "Hey Otto, is your newsletter just as much of a waste of time as your blog, or do you actually do some work from time to time in your slackerfest frictionless life?", or that kind of thing. So for what it's worth and to help answer, here's a link to the referred post "ten random calls" on the open blog and here below is how IKN294 dated December 28th 2014, began. Since that time:

1) The Argonaut Gold (AR.to) we bought at $1.47 were sold for $2.53
2) The Rio Alto Mining (RIOM) (RIO.to) news today.

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Two serious forecasts for 2015
As is usual for the time of year, next week on the blog I’m going to stick up my “Ten Random Calls” post with predictions for the year to come. Some are more lighthearted than others, none really make it out of the realm of pure crystal ball gazer, so take them all with a pinch of salt. However, here in the Weekly things are more serious so I’m going to give you two forecasts for 2015 that are actionable, specific and on which I can be fairly judged. Follow me in on these and make some money. There is just one caveat on the calls (see below):

  • Forecast One: Argonaut Gold (AR.to) may have started well since being recommended and then moves to Top Pick here at the Weekly, but don’t think for a second you’re too late to get on. You’re not. Get on. This stock is set to move significantly higher in the weeks ahead. I’d like to have a more structured plan on what to do with my shares but with the rough seas of December tax loss/January pop around us, it’s difficult to be mathematically accurate during a momentum-charged period. Right now my rough gameplan is to ride all my large position into January, maybe pick a spot and sell a portion for a decent gain, add dollars to a somewhat cash starved junior port right now, let the rest of the AR shares ride. But that plan is not fixed and could change on new circumstances. Whatever happens, it took until the very end of 2014 to find a trade potential that had all ducks in line and got me buying in with real confidence, no way do I let go too early because there’s money to be made here.

  • Forecast Two: Rio Alto Mining (RIO.to) (RIOM) will be bought out in 2015 by a larger mining company. Probably a paper deal, certainly at a premium to today’s share price, a bidding war may even develop come the time as more than one larger-scale mining company decides it’s willing to pay up for 200k and 300k oz per annum of low cash cost gold. Put simply, if Rio Alto exists as a separate entity come this time next year I will be surprised.


My only caveat to the above calls is the gold price. If it doesn’t collapse on us (by which I mean that we get it to stay at-or-around its current U$1,200/oz level) I’m very confident about those predictions and be in no doubt, I have my money firmly where my mouth is on both. These are not pussyfooting tentative positions. Own both.