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8/10/15

Argentina PASO elections: With 94.28% of votes counted...

...we have the following numbers:

 FpV 38.39%
Cambiemos 30.10%
UNA 20.61%

As for direct votes for next President (ignoring the internal votes inside alliances)

Scioli 38.4%
Macri 24.3%
Massa 14.1%

Details here from the official electoral body web page. Go for the final 100% counted scores later.

The bottom line: Daniel Scioli has at least eight points on his main rival Mauricio Macri. One way of winning the whole shebang in the first round when the real vote happens in October is a) get more than 40% and b) the second place is more than 10% behind you. That means that Scioli has a reasonable shot at getting the extra votes he needs at this point. Personally, I make him a 50/50 chance to get the big job without the need for a second round run-off.