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1/10/15

Can somebody buy Tommy Humphreys a dictionary, please?

And while you're at it buy him a slot on one of those improve your memory courses, as Tommy's is looking a little too selective for its own good. According to the way-too-thin-skinned-to-make-it-in-this town Tommy Humphreys:





Which came with that link to this chat entry:


So first up let's correct his poor use of the English language. If something written about you is true it's not slander. If something written about you is false, it's not slander. That one's called libel, Tommy. Ask your business pal Serafino and his lawyers about that, as he's already failed miserably to sue IKN using the same word as excuse. Second up, note the cute way in which the ass-licking sycophant and self-appointed ego-masseuse to Canada's mining management eggworld chooses his frame of reference very carefully. Not a word about the money behind these equity disasters and the person to have benefitted most from his saliva powered colonic irrigations, Frank Giustra. No relation there either, Tommyboy?

PS: Before I forget, congrats on the one Fav and the one RT on your tweet, Tommy. Winning!

Lefsetz and Ritholtz both have surnames that end in a Z

I don't bother with his blog, but read the Bob Lefsetz music biz piece over at Ritholtz's Big Picture when it turns up, usually coming on the weekend (invariably when I'm looking at my RSS list for light relief while writing up the weekly report). It's a regular read it because it's a mixed bag of things, some of which sound stupid, some that come across as little more than coke-fuelled streams of consciousness, other times smart and funny, always thought-provoking and occasionally there comes a neat little soundbite that gets me saying "Yes, spot on" out loud to my screen. One of the latter category turned up in this weekend's edition:
The richies have polluted the waters. They say they create all the jobs, that we’re worthless without them, that we need to be like them.
But nothing is further from the truth.

The truth is everybody should be able to pay their bills, have a roof over their head and food on the table, hopefully via a well-paying job. But after we institute the floor, life is about choices. And those who tell you to sell out to the man have no backbone.
Can you imagine a corporation tying up with John Lennon? Who incited controversy seemingly every time he opened his mouth? You wonder why we’ve got no more John Lennons? Because people are afraid to piss off the payers, the man.
Whole thing here and for what it's worth, I have very little knowledge about who Bob Lefsetz is and no idea at all about his recreational activities. 

The above probably resonated with me after a week in which I've been offered several "business opportunities" (I think that's what the cool kids call them) for this blog, all of which have been refused (some more stridently than others). Sorry people, I worked out long ago that 1) being independent is worth more than your dollars and 2) I don't need to be rich. As the world's most subversive book put it:

What works reliably is to know the raw silk, hold the uncut wood. 
Need little, want less. Forget the rules. Be untroubled.

Most people know the second line, the first one causes a little more brainache until you work out that "raw silk" is symbolic for simplicity and "uncut wood" means to be natural or honest. So to tie those two semi-connected thoughts a little closer in this weekend ramble, the last word goes to the incisive brain of Kurt Vonnegut:
"Go into the arts. I'm not kidding. The arts are not a way to make a living. They are a very human way of making life more bearable. Practicing an art, no matter how well or badly, is a way to make your soul grow, for heaven's sake. Sing in the shower. Dance to the radio. Tell stories. Write a poem to a friend, even a lousy poem. Do it as well as you possibly can. You will get an enormous reward. You will have created something."

That's exactly right.


1/9/15

Gran Colombia Gold (GCM.to): Annals of NoShitSherlock

Oh Serafino...

As IKN explained, carefully and patiently, at the time of the last financials filing for GCM.to...

"But it's only when you open up the MD&A and read it that the scale of the upcoming back passage intercourse coming the way of equity holders becomes fully apparent. Read this, read it all, it's from the GCM 3q14 MD&A filed this evening, it's why this share price is going to nothing, it's your fundies analysis case study of the week"
We then offered the section of the 3q14 MD&A that was necessary reading, but it seems that not enough people got to read the post because GCM.to is down just four cents from that happy day in mid-November.

That's about to change.

Serafino Iacono might have walked away with mega-millions from his non-stop insider sales of Pacific Rubiales (PRE.to) while it flew high (that gig's getting close to its coda, too), but I'm glad to say he wasted at least some of his luck-fuelled fortune by ploughing it into this ridiculously badly run mining company. And let us not forget the role that the brown-nose pumpers of this stock, Thom Calandra and Tommy Humphreys, played when pumping GCM.to to all and sundry while on the payroll.




The Friday OT: Peter Gabriel; Big Time

I woke up this morning with this song in my head. Not a clue as to why.



Therefore no need to suffer alone.

A Dalradian (DNA.to) question for Iwnattos

Over at his blog, Iwnattos has been wet-dreamin' on a breakout for Dalradian Resources (DNA.to) for at least a couple of weeks.


So, you got your breakout today or not? C'mon dude, putup/shutup

The insider selling never stops at Fortuna Silver (FSM) (FVI.to)

The selling never stops at Fortuna Silver (FVI.to) (FSM), with even more insider selling registered this week. As per Canadian Insider, since November insiders at FVI have sold over 1.15 million shares of their own company, the vast majority of those sales being options priced at $4.03 that are exercised and then all sold.
Just about every director and/or officer you'd care to mention has been cashing in too; CEO Ganoza, CFO Ganoza, Chair Ridgway, founder Stozlender, VP Ops Ruiz Rabbit, long-standing key director Iverson, Corp Secretary Whittall...the whole nine yards.

Strange this is happening when the market analysts insist that there's never been a better time to buy mining shares. Hey, maybe the people inside FVI know something about its year-end financials that the rest of us don't. Y'know...just maybe...


UPDATE: IKN is pleased to welcome visitors from the site of Canada's biggest ass-licking sycophant and toady of the mining industry. Yes indeed, the one and only Tommy Humphreys and CEO dot CA.

+252k and 5.6%

Here's Calculated Risk (the only place you need to read) on the jerbs nermbers.

Wonder when we'll get a European Union version of this video?



"Jerome, zey took notre employments"

Chart of the day is...

...the gold/copper ratio:



Hot on the heels of the more newsworthy gold/oil ratio of the other day, this one also shows recent weakness. Which isn't good for me as I own copper stocks. Hey, I'll live.

1/8/15

The latest round of Aberdeen (AAB.to) vs Meson

Right on cue, Meson publishes its proxy for the February 3rd meeting and you should go read it here because it makes a lot of fair points about the scumball Bharti.

But the real message is in the first paragraph...
Today, funds controlled by Meson Capital Partners LLC ("Meson Capital") and Nightscape Capital (UK) LLP ("Nightscape Capital", collectively, the "Concerned Shareholders") that hold shares representing approximately 9% of the issued and outstanding shares of Aberdeen International Inc. (AAB.TO) ("Aberdeen" or the "Company") announced (continues)
You guys only got 9%? That's the definition of taking a knife to a gunfight, ivyleague. By my quickcount AAB.to directors own about 30% of S/O, and then there are all those packets of Stan holdings here and there. You don't have enough money, Meson. That's the stuff that talks.

Maquarie publishes a Barrick (ABX) analysis

Really enjoying reading the analysis published by Macquarie on Barrick (ABX) this morning. Unlike the sycophantic norm from Canada's brokerage stuffed-suit-cubicle world, it pulls no punches. You should try and get your hands on a copy, too.

Chart of the day is...

...the gold/oil ratio:

I read somewhere in the early morning scan that the Gold/Oil ratio (GOR) was now at its highest level since 1998, which got a mental "woah!". So here we are post-breakfast and I searched out a long-term chart of GOR, from Macrotrends here. Your chart, that goes back to 1978 (Jimmy Carter time, begad):



Indeed it's true. What's also true is the spiky nature of the ratio...that's more important methinks.

1/7/15

Why anyone involved with the mining industry should read Jack Caldwell

Right here, his post today on Mt Polley (III.to). Go read it now. Here's an extract:
"And the industry is revealed as NAKED.  The industry institutions protest in lame terms.  The organizations squirrel to sound sane, but reveal their prejudice and ignoble perspective with every new word.  The reporters tred carefully lest they offend (or get sued).   The government obfuscates and hides behind platitudes.  Even bloggers like me go careful, for the facts are suppressed, the informants silenced, the opinions attacked, and the threat of retribution ever-present."
If today's post is his idea of going careful, I can't wait to read him when he lets rip. And that's not even the best bit. Caldwell knows his subject backwards and takes shit from nobody, that's why he's a must-read.




Kristallnacht...

...is the first word that came to mind on reading about the Charlie Hebdo attack. Intimately tied to Paris, too.

We're about to find out if society has bothered to learn anything in the last 75 years.

UPDATE: I know it's not the same. These things are never the same, don't take things literally, history rhymes more than it repeats. But Paris as the flashpoint, a murder episode, the religion angle, the terrorism (sometimes by State goons, other times by religious nutballs), the rise of far right wing politics (this time France). There are too many connections to ignore.

UPDATE 2: A sad day, truly it is. Therefore, take refuge in humour.


Because there's a whole bunch of clever in this. 




A Flash update...

...has been sent to subscribers, pre-opening bell on Wednesday January 7th. Belt'n'braces notification complete.

Argonaut Gold (AR.to) 4q14 production

Here's a chart:


Here's the NR.

Lake Shore Gold (LSG.to) 4q14 production numbers

Here's production:


Here's average gold grade:


You may be able to spot a connection between the two datasets. Today's NR here.

1/6/15

Colombia's trade balance with The USA

For Greg Weeks and anyone else interested.


In a previous post we already noticed that The USA greatly improved its trade balance with Peru the moment it got a Free Trade Agreement (FTA) signed and in place with the country. 

Here we notice something completely different in that...errr...The USA greatly improved its trade balance with Colombia the moment...errr.... it got a Free Trade Agreement (FTA) signed and...errr... in place with the country.

Probably a coincidence.

Data from here:

PS: Just so you know:





Indeed, the month the FTA came into effect (May 2012) was Colombia's best ever month of exports to The USA and it's been downhill ever since. While the USA's exports to Colombia have just risen and risen. Yup, sheer coincidence.

IKN is available for weddings, barmitzvahs, funerals, graduation dances etc

Dear CIBC: The Colombia chart you're looking for...

...is this one:


From this post. Don't bother to say thank you. You never do anyway.

Gold is now more expensive than platinum

By one United States Dollar per troy ounce. First time in quite a while.


Message ends.

Ok, I give in, here's the latest link of Rick Rule talking with Tekoa Da Silva

As many of you have noticed (I have the inbox to prove it), Arthur Richards Rule The Fourth mentions your humble scribe at some point in this interview. Which was nice of him I suppose, but the oversized reaction received for something like two seconds of reference from El Rule is kind of weird. Certainly gives me an idea of how many fanboys the dude has out there.

Anyway here's the link, which has the video interview and the transcript, which I did bother to read (didn't do the vid though, print asshole that I am). And yes I admit it's another pretty decent Q&A with good insights on the junior sector. No need to mail in any more headsup now, thanks and all that.

However, I am left wondering just why Tekoa capitalizes the D in his name, when just about every "da Silva" I've come across (e.g. ex-Prez Lula) uses the D in lower case. Overcompensation?

Ka-Boom

A Colombia fireworks factory outside of Bogotá exploded on Sunday and some guy managed to get it all on camera (while being knocked off his feet by the initial blast). Well worth a look, this one.



Another triumphant combination of human dumbassery and cameras cameras everywhere. There was damage reported to 17 houses and two people injured, but nobody seriously. 

Chart of the day is...

...the Nymex WTI crude oil rolling futures contract, currently set at March 2015, weeklies:


I freely admit to not having anything particularly smart to say about the oil price action, it's not my sector, I'm even more of a dumbass about the stuff than about metals. But hey, cool chart no?

A Flash update...

...has just been sent to subscribers, 07;30am local time on Tuesday Jan 6th and a couple of hours before the markets open in North America. A couple of small trades planned.

1/5/15

Junior mining investment opportunities in Bolivia

From IKN295, out last night. Part of the regular quarterly regional review of LatAm countries and stuck on the blog this morning because the quicker this Calandra bullshit is nipped in the bud, the better.

Here comes a necessary word or three about Bolivia. There’s a bit of a pump starting on Bolivia and its mining potential for Vancouver-type junior explorecos, which seems to be based around the move made by the arch-scamster John Lee and his Prophecy (PCY) company, that’s just bought ex-Orvana properties in Bolivia. Lee’s being assisted in his pump by another scumbag, Thom Calandra. Alongside the direct promo on his company, Bolivia is now getting touted as a place that will welcome FDI for at least some of the same reasons Ecuador is being promo’d, with all that about the dump in hydrocarbon prices meaning these States are now newly desperate for foreign capitals and will welcome northern capital with newly open arms, do anything for us tall paleskinned people, etc etc. It’s total bullshit and I can’t stress that too highly. Bolivia will accept FDI on its terms, but as things stand and as things will stand while Evo Morales is in power (let’s call that indefinite for our purposes today), those terms are nobody’s idea of good. As things stand today Bolivia is in good shape, it’s just posted 5.5% GDP growth in 2014 (8) (the best in all South America last year) and despite the drop in gas prices its Finance Minister expects 5.9% growth in 2015. Quite right too, because the North seems to forget that Bolivia sells its gas on long term contracts to Brazil and Argentina that are less affected by the moves in spot market prices; its revenues may change from year to year but it’s not boom/bust, either. We should also note that Bolivia’s international reserves are now at 50% of annual GDP, the highest percentage level in Latin America. Be clear; this country is not desperate for your dollars. In fact if things go unexpectedly badly for Bolivia’s economy in 2015, or things don’t pick up and 2016 or 2017 start looking soft, it’s manifold times more likely that the country nationalizes its mining industry than opens it up to neoliberal type investment opportunities. Companies at the scam end of the junior mining world such as PCY will be able to spin out their hoodwinking games on properties there, but please don’t take these people seriously.
 Bolivia has been an impressive economic success story in the last ten years. But it’s done that by ignoring the orthodox western model, by wholly rejecting it, by nationalizing and spending the cash in classic left-wing social program ways. Perhaps it’s a special case, perhaps not, the debates on the philosophy behind its success and whether it’s sustainable are for other places but if you think it’s about to change the model you need to change the books you’re reading. The country is and will remain Socialist with a capital S and not the place for the most cutting edge of capitalist money, that which funds junior mining exploration companies. End.


Chart of the day is...

..one month of Bitcoin, to this morning:



From the Kitco page, here

1/4/15

The IKN Weekly, out now



IKN295 has just been sent to subscribers. Rip-roaring stuff.

Good news for Brazil: Coritiba's record lives on

Today Valencia beat Real Madrid 2-1 and Real's streak of 22 straight wins in officially sanctioned matches (Guinness rules) has finally been broken. 

It means that Brazilian football team Coritiba keep their world record win streak of 24 matches, set back in 2011, intact.

It also mean the Spanish Liga just got interesting again.

It's now 75 days since the Doug Casey "Market To Crash NOW" call

On October 21st Casey Research charged its bleating flock $20 for its "Prepare For the 2014 Crash" report, in which we were told (and we quote)...

"Now is the time to take action. Not in the next few months or even in the next few weeks—Right now."
We're now 75 days from that call, so let's update on how Doug Casey's prediction is panning out. Unlike the memory-lapsing Casey Research lackey Olivier Garret who tried to lull us into some revisionist bullshit on November 26th, we at IKN are clear about the main calls and trade recos offered by Casey Research in its paid-for panic call in October. The integral parts of the plan were the following:

1) Expect the broad markets to crash
2) Own gold as insurance
3) Go short the regional banks ETF (KRE)
4) Go short on the Dow Trannies ETF (IYT)

Here's the chart of those four, from then until now:


Checking down that list...

1) The broad markets have not crashed. In fact the S&P500 is up by 6%
2) Buying gold as insurance would have cost you 5% on your cash.
3) Shorting the regional banks ETF (KRE) was a bad idea, as they're up by a tad under 7%
4) Go short on the Dow Trannies ETF (IYT) was also a bad idea, as they're up by 7.5%

Zero for Four. Which is what Doug Casey can do for your wealth as well, kind reader. Just send him some money and give him the chance to prove it, you know it makes sense.