start here

start here

The Daily IKN email digest, get all daily posts sent to you next day (& no ads)

5/16/15

The most visited IKN post this week is...

...this one, "Marin Katusa laid bare".

And to cut a long story short, I'm pleased about that.




5/15/15

Imperial Metals (III.to) has this week's late Friday news release classic

Here's the NR. And you read...and read some more...and down a bit more...and then down to paragraph twelve (!) and...

At March 31, 2015, the Company had cash of $6.5 million and a working capital deficiency of $35.6 million. Following completion of the construction of the Red Chris mine, commissioning of the mill commenced and the first concentrate was produced in February 2015. However, due to production slowdowns related to temporarily reduced water supply, it will take additional time for the mine to consistently achieve design levels of throughput and production. As a result, the Company will not be able to meet the June 1, 2015 date for completion under the Senior Credit Facility. The Company is in discussions with its lenders to extend the date for it to achieve completion. However, without a waiver or extension from its lenders the Company will be in default under the Senior Credit Facility effective June 1, 2015.

Hmmm...default on Senior Credit. That good or bad, y'say?

The Friday OT: Lil PP & Nitepunk; Vegas Girl Walk

This has to be seen:



Thanks to A.Reader for the headsup. Link here

Good news for explorecos, a new way to rip off the Canadian public has arrived

Junior mining companies get to crowdfund! Explorecos get to bypass all accredited investor regulations! Scumbag moose pasture peddlers to receive funds directly from a whole mountain of people with no idea about the risks of investing in junior mining companies! 

What. Could. Possibly. Go. Wrong?

The NR starts like this:
The securities regulators of British Columbia, Saskatchewan, Manitoba, Québec, New Brunswick and Nova Scotia (the “participating jurisdictions”) today announced they have implemented, or expect to implement, registration and prospectus exemptions that will allow start-ups and early stage companies to raise capital through crowdfunding in these jurisdictions, subject to certain conditions. 
Full release here

Canaccord on Belo Sun (BSX.to) today. And yesterday.

IKN notes that The Can of Corn has today upped its target to 80c on Belo Sun (BSX.to) due to the move made by Agnico Eagle (AEM) on the stock last night (difficult not to note it after being sent the analysis four times in the space of an hour). Here's a chunk of the prose from the PDF that sums it up:
Valuation and Risks
In valuing Belo Sun, we use forward curve pricing and discounted cash flow analysis
discounted at a project WACC of 8.6%. In our Base Case, on a fully funded basis, we see
814M shares outstanding, generating a project NAVPS of $0.31 and a corporate NAVPS
of $0.76. Applying a 1.0x P/NAV multiple generates a target NAVPS of $0.76 supporting
a rounded target price of C$0.80, increased from $0.70. The 264% projected return 
continues to support a SPECULATIVE BUY rating. We highlight Belo Sun’s reliance on
capital markets and the ability to permit Volta Grande as key risks to our valuation and
target.

We therefore note just how good this house is on BSX by pointing you in the direction of Canaccord's previous coverage on this stock. Let's just say that their recommendations have been less than optimum so far.

Gold trading today is (for a change) quite interesting

We saw a dumpage of gold (by THEM!) overnight Americas time, but as soon as NY opened the buyers came straight in and bought it back.



Could it possibly be that THEY are being opposed by another bigger group of THEM?

PS: And thank God for jim willie.

Zinc has failed again at $1.10/lb

This morning under $1.04.


Just sayin'.

Shorter B2Gold (BTG) (BTO.to) 1q15 earnings


In Line.


However in line is in fact pretty good, because the thing's been priced down for weeks. The longer version on Sunday. BTO news release here.

5/14/15

Frank Holmes has been quietly selling his Gran Colombia Gold (GCM.to) shares

Gran Colombia Gold (GCM.to) reported its 1q15 this afternoon and apart from the $3.38m net loss and the continuing disaster that is GCM's balance sheet...


...(and they seriously think that a few hundred thou saved on G&A makes a difference these days; Serafino, it's a freakin' rounding error dude), the interesting bit about today's 1q15 financials is to read how Frank Holmes's U.S. Global fund has been trying to get out of its outsized and utterly failed position in GCM. In the 4q14 report we read that U.S Global holds 12% of GCM.to:


But now in the 1q15 report we read that the position is down to 10%:


...which means somewhere since then U.S Global sold 2% of the company to some other sucker. That's around 460,000 shares. Rats and sinking ships.

Fraud allegations against Silvercorp (SVM.to) (SVM) short seller are thrown out

The BCSC ruling right here. How it begins here:

May 14, 2015
Vancouver – A British Columbia Securities Commission (BCSC) panel has dismissed fraud allegations against Jon Richard Carnes, the man who ran the “Alfred Little” financial blog. The panel also dismissed staff’s application for an order in the public interest.

Tia Maria: Police and protesters currently beating crap out of each other...

...in the main square of Arequipa city. A photo in which some of you may recognize Arequipa cathedral, and many of you will recognize tear gas, from this report:



There are running battles being reported in several spots in the city, too.

Update: plenty of reports now coming through (eg here, Spanish language). Plenty more besides. Plus this photo...


...which has protesters digging up cobblestones in Arequipa city centre for makeshift protection barriers.


Has First Mining Finance (FF.v) fired Daniel Ameduri of Future Money Trends yet?

In the First Mining Finance (FF.v) pump job run on April 6th 2015 by Future Money Trends (FMT), one of those hardcore goldbug conspiracy theory websites created by and for the mouthbreather end of the precious metals universe, Daniel Ameduri gave his idiot tribe the full breathlessly purple prose. It started...
"You are literally reading this before a single share has been traded; FF trading on the TSX-Venture exchange will have its first day of trading today. I honestly think early investors may be looking at a double or triple in the next few weeks!"
...and you can read the whole pump job here (it's a good old laugh). Then, only after IKN (via its weekly publication dated April 12th) had pointed out to the world that First Mining Finance (FF.v) was actually dumb enough to pay for this bunkum, did FF.v own up to its contract with Ameduri in this NR dated April 13th:
"...the Company has engaged Future Money Trends, LLC ("FMT") to provide certain financial publishing and digital marketing services. In exchange for providing these services, FMT will receive an initial fee of US$30,000 and a monthly fee of US$7,000. The agreement with FMT is for a one year term and the Company has the right to cancel the agreement at any time. The Company has also agreed to issue FMT 100,000 incentive stock options in the fourth month of the term of the agreement."
So, let's see how things are getting on for this wonderful PR relationship:


From 50c to 37c in six weeks, another win for freedom over fiat currency.

Y'know, you have to wonder who's the most stupid out of the three: I don't think it's Ameduri, because he has his little scheme to fleece idiots and he does it on both sides. As for the goldbug mouthbreather audience, they're probably just a bunch of naive tyros who'll either wake up and smell the coffee one day or remain fodder for market scamsters all their lives. So on due consideration the dumbest out of the lot here must be Keith Neumeyer, head honcho of FF.v, who's actually paying good corporate cash for this utter bullshit.

We note that FF.v claims it can stop paying this fool $7k a month at any time. Also, they only have to giftwrap 100k in options to him (thereby diluting the share base) if they continue with the deal after month four comes around. Therefore the question: Is FF.v going to be stupid with its treasury any longer, or will it show a little sense and save its cash for more important things? Like real PR.



B2Gold (BTG) (BTO.to) this week

If you have the same viewpoint as this humble scribe, you would have noticed that B2Gold (BTO.to) (BTG) is on a face-rip rebound move on renewed volume this week.



Also, if you have the same viewpoint as this humble scribe you would know that BTO reports its 1q15 results before the bell tomorrow morning.

Subscribers, a good hard look at BTO will be the main event on Sunday in IKN314, of that there is little doubt.


Chart of the day is...

...the gold/silver ratio:



Approaching 70X again, which has been a serious sticking point for the metal these last few quarters. And on the subject of this ratio and quarters, there were plenty of guffaws and chuckles when Silvercrest (SVLC) (SVL.to) told the world yesterday that it was using a 66.7/1 ratio between silver and gold for its 1q15 filings. You see where the real ratio is between Jan 1st and March 31st on that chart? You see where 66.7 to one is compared to SVL's fantasy? And this is from a company that (despite its name) receives more of its revenues from gold than from silver. Why can't these people just be honest? Why do they have to associate themselves with these bullshit little lies? Haven't they learned anything this last couple of years? Don't they know that we're bored stupid with mining bullshitters and will find any excuse NOT to invest in their marginal self-serving companies?

Humbug, grrr etc. Okay, rant over. Have a pleasant day.

Rubicon (RMX) (RMX.to) crossing shareholders

The last time the consistently stupid Louis Lobito Little Wolf James of Casey Stansberry Casey Research pumped Rubicon (RMX) (RMX.to) to his band of unsuspecting sheep a few weeks ago, I decided to go beyond my usual harrumphing and checked out the basics on the stock, including the latest financials and corp presentation, just in case he was having one of his stopped clock moments. During the scan overview I was pretty sure that I read RMX was fully funded to production now and...



...yup, on re-checking page 18 of its April 2015 presentation, that was certainly the message. Which begs the question as to why RMX wants to dilute shareholders by taking out a $50m senior secured loan today.
TORONTO, ONTARIO--(Marketwired - May 14, 2015) - Rubicon Minerals Corporation (RMX.TO)(NYSE MKT:RBY) ("Rubicon" or the "Company") has entered into a financing agreement with CPPIB Credit Investments Inc. ("CPPIB"), a wholly-owned subsidiary of Canada Pension Plan Investment Board, for a US$50 million secured loan facility (the "Loan Facility"). The proceeds from the Loan Facility will be used for the development of the Phoenix Gold Project (the "Project") and to provide adequate working capital and flexibility to optimize the Project during the ramp-up period to potential commercial production continues here.

And that comes with a bonus prize of 10m warrants at $1.71 (hint: For those of you who believed that pumper Lobito and swallowed his spiel whole, ask around and find out what the word 'overhang' means in terms of company stock derivatives). The bottom line is not a new one on these pages, but it's one that's served us well as we tiptoe through the junior mining minefield: All any junior has is a story, that's the base of its whole net value. If the company can't even keep its story straight, there's nothing there.



Aurcana (AUN.v) waited until late at night before filing its quarter

Surprising. Not.



I wonder what Orion is going to do with its mine?

5/13/15

Bitgold (XAU.v)

Less than a year ago, founders were paid in shares worth 3.3c

In January, February and April this year, seed placements and suchlike were run on Bitgold (XAU.v) with the shares priced at 90c.

Today the stock IPO'd and closed at $2.70.

As of this evening, Bitgold (XAU.v) has a market cap of CAD$98.87m.

Technology's amazing, isn't it?

UPDATE Thursday morning: Now trading at $4 (and it touched $4.50) of 650k volume. You guys, are so funny. 


The U2 survey results

On Sunday (and I'm still not quite sure why) IKN asked the following question:

WHEN DID U2 START TO COMPLETELY SUCK?

As we got to 200 answers this afternoon (201 to be exact) the poll is now closed and here are the results:
Some notes:
  • 27 of you (13%) said that they still don't suck. You're wrong. They do.
  • 26 of you said after the first tranche of records (Boy/War/UF). In fact they didn't suck to begin with, so you're all wrong too. 
  • The most popular answer was "After Joshua Tree" and I'd agree they sucked a bit then, but some of tracks were still good and they were doing original things with the music, even if the lyrics grate like nails down a blackboard. So, 37% of you are also wrong.
  • Meanwhile, 12% plumped for the post Zoo Tour period. Sorry people, they sucked way before then, you're wrong.
  • Which leaves us with "After Achtung Baby" and 47 of you (well, 46 and me) all chose the right answer. You all rule. Because it's my blog, get your own if you don't like it. We win. Ha.


UPDATED: Looking for a cheap vacation destination this year? Try Venezuela (and take US Dollar bills with you)

Via ace reporter Girish Gupta here and here, with the headsup from Setty here, behold the 2015 year to date forex pair of the Venezuelan Bolivar Fuerte (VEF) versus the United States Dollar (USD):


If you go the official government counter or a bank in Venezuela you get 6.3 VEF to your dollar, or perhaps 12.3. If you do that you're mad, because the black market street rate just went over 300 to the dollar.

UPDATE: Just how cheap is that? Here's a website with up to date prices for supermarket goods in Venezuela which gives the prices of various typical products in US Dollar terms at the official rate of 6.3 VEF to 1 USD. To the right in red I've done the calcs on the same things but at the 300-to-1 black market prices:


Even if they've doubled since the March 2015 date of record on that website, they're cheap.

Today in mining stocks




Any further questions?

Quick note: Ram Power (RPG.to) is now Polaris Infrastructure (PIF.to)

RENO, NV and VANCOUVER , May 13, 2015 /CNW/ - Polaris Infrastructure Inc. (formerly Ram Power, Corp.) (RPG.TO) (the "Company" or "Polaris") announced today that, in accordance with the terms of the private placement agreement dated April 20, 2015 between the Company and Goodwood Inc., the Company has changed its name from "Ram Power, Corp." to "Polaris Infrastructure Inc.".  A change in the stock symbol for the Company's common shares trading on the Toronto Stock Exchange, from "RPG" to "PIF", is expected to become effective on the morning of Tuesday May 19, 2015 .

So the name is about to disappear, along with the value of any share certs bought before 2015.

ECI Exploration and Mining raises $10m

This private company has just raised $10m of seed capital, which is interesting. It's run by Robert Harrington (reasonable reputation) and its main project is the Inde property in Durango which is a gold oxide thing and has been looked upon with a glad eye for many years, but has had problems with locals that's stopped it from moving forward. Potentially a story to keep an eye on now that cash is in the structure.

PS: Also potentially interesting the ECI website "is currently being updated".

Kip Keen on Newmarket Gold

A nice interview done by Keen of Mineweb with Douglas Forster, one of the BSDs* behind this new vehicle, right here. Worth your time, if only as background.


*big swinging dicks

5/12/15

My favourite bit of all the Allied Nevada (ex-ANV) (ANVGQ) filings today UPDATED

This bit in the MIC, filed today, which discussed remuneration for the Named Executive Officers (NEOs):
In May 2015, an increase in the base salary (for inflation) was granted to certain NEOs.  Mr. Wodzicki’s base salary was increased from $336,600 to $354,000, by approximately 5.1%, Mr. Carmichael’s base salary was increased from $234,600 to 242,000, by approximately 3.1%, and Mr. Beck’s base salary was increased from $180,000 to $186,000, by approximately 3.1%
To be clear:
  • Wojtek Wodzicki is the President and CEO
  • Robert Carmichael is the VP Exploration
  • James Beck is the Director of Corporate Development
  • And Allied Nevada is the company that filed for bankruptcy in March 2015


With that, Allied Nevada wins the 2015 Chutzpah of the Year Award. Breathtaking.

UPDATE next day. OK, enormous brain fart idiot post has now had lines put through it. I will explain how stupid I am by stating that you should never, ever have two Management Information Circulars open at the same time. And if you do, you should never read them late at night when you've been to the dentist, your brain is semi-frazzled and you've taken heavy duty painkillers.

In other words, I managed to confuse the contents of the MICs of NGEx and ANV. The above people work at NGEx and have nothing to do with ANV.

I thank the (so far four) readers that have mailed me about the stupid mistake I made. The explanation is above, but it's not an excuse. I was just plain wrong.

PS: We don't delete dumbo posts, we leave them up. Good for the ego work.






The problem with owning silver mining stocks...

...is that it's a complete waste of time. Even the underlying metal's modest 2015 performance is better than that of the companies producing the stuff. So why go to all that bother and risk, when owning the shiny stuff works better than overpaying a bunch of directors to underperform for your cash?


And another reason why owning silver miners is a waste of time: The above isn't true for the gold miners.

Bayern Munich supporters, the best in the world

And so Barcelona beat Bayern over the two legs and reach the Champion's League final, which was the logical result after the first match. However, IKN does not stand and applaud Messi, Neymar, Schweinsteiger or Lewandowski. IKN applauds the Bayern Munich crowd.

the scene before the match started tonight

They never stopped cheering and singing tonight, even when defeat was obvious at the end the noise was non-stop and the best humour too. Take a bow Bayern, the world's best group of footy fans.

The Electrification Of The Nicaraguan Union (aka the Ram Power (RPG.to) re-capitalization)

I've always liked the conceptual of thermal power plants that get a long-term contract from their host government. And as a few of you out there know, I've followed Ram Power (RPG.to) quite closely without ever pulling the trigger and buying, because of its financials. The decision to sit out and wait/watch turned out to be the right one because last year RPG.to finally collapsed under the weight of its debt but I claim no prizes for avoiding, it's hardly the only way I could have lost money betting on iffy balance sheets last year (for further proof, I check my own portfolio).

Anyway, the point of this post is to note how New Ram Power (for want of a better moniker) has apparently done a damned good job of marketing. It recently completed a round of re-capitalization raising to the tune of $74.4m and the new guys in (who get to walk in on the already built fixed assets) have diluted the previous shareholders to kingdom come as part of the gig. Well folks, that's capitalism for you but what really catches the eye are the names involved in the re-cap:


That's a serious list of instos. That's just the ones who stuck in over $1m each (there are other smaller players too). That's $64.755m of the total $74.4m raise. And being able to raise $74m in this (so they tell us) tight market with that bunch of names on board is testament to the opportunity available, I'd vouch.

Bottom line: The big boys are in, expect a pump this year on Ram Power 2.0.

Chart of the day is...

...a thought on gold:

Ernesto Echavarria sells part of his Almaden (AAU) (AMM.to) position



...are close in size and scope to the July 2013 purchase of 2.8m shares and 2.8m warrants that he picked up at $1.25 per unit. It leaves Ernie with 5.68m shares of AMM and it's probably good news for Almaden that the dude is selling, what with Echavarria's track record of being a bigtime failure in juniors. That how to make a small fortune in mining joke applies to this dude in spades.

Coastal Gold (COD.v) is indeed annexed from Bhartistan

The NR just out starts this way:

TORONTO, ONTARIO--(Marketwired - May 12, 2015) - COASTAL GOLD CORP. (TSX VENTURE:COD)(FRANKFURT:CY41) ("Coastal Gold" or the "Corporation") announces that it has accepted an increased offer (the "Revised FMF Offer") to acquire all of the outstanding common shares of Coastal Gold (the "Coastal Gold Common Shares") from First Mining Finance Corp. ("FMF") by way of a plan of arrangement under the Business Corporations Act (Ontario) (the "FMF Transaction"). In connection with the acceptance of the Revised FMF Offer, the Corporation entered into a new arrangement agreement with FMF dated May 11, 2015 (the "Arrangement Agreement"). Immediately prior to the entering into of the Arrangement Agreement, the Corporation terminated the arrangement agreement dated March 1, 2015 that was entered into with Sulliden Mining Capital Inc. ("Sulliden") and will make a termination payment of $250,000 to Sulliden. 
Under the terms of the Revised FMF Offer, FMF will acquire each outstanding Coastal Gold Common Share for 0.1625 of a FMF common share (the "Exchange Ratio"). The Exchange Ratio represents $0.065 per Coastal Gold Common Share, based on FMF's 30-trading day volume weighted average price ("VWAP") of $0.40. Based on the Revised FMF Offer, the implied transaction value is approximately $13.5 million, including the assumption of $2.5 million of Coastal Gold costs and debt. Upon completion of the FMF Transaction, Coastal Gold will be a wholly-owned subsidiary of FMF. The directors of each company have unanimously approved the FMF Transaction.
Whole thing here


x

5/11/15

Pan American Silver (PAA.to) (PAAS) 1q15

Mine Operating Earnings doesn't take into account essentials such as G&A, exploration, project development and Forex. For example, you stick all that on top of the 1q15 MOE of $2.63m and it suddenly turns into a $11.4m loss on operations. The net loss was $19.785m.


Also liquidity dopped by $39m, with cash now under $110m. And because of that...they're going to spend $112.4m on the Dolores upgrade. 

This can't go on, PAAS. NR here


A quick Tia Maria update

Yesterday Sunday, the national government under the direction of the Head of State and her husband, Ollanta Humala, sent in a reported 1,000 troops (out of a total of 2,000 that may eventually be deployed) to calm the waters in the Tambo Valley, location of the contentious Tia Maria project. This Monday afternoon locals and police clashed again, stones flying, tear gas, the whole nine yards. Plus there's now a three day strike in the entire Arequipa region set to start tomorrow Tuesday to protest against the project. So, that's Humala for you.

And for what it's worth, this photo was taken back in 2011, the last time locals were out protesting the project (and got it suspended). And the nice lady in the circle? That's Ana María Solórzano, who last year was elected head of the National Congress.



What part of "Not. Gonna. Happen." do you not understand?

Marin Katusa laid bare

For those of you considering the potential benefits of subscribing to Marin Katusa's new "Katusa Research" vehicle*, please consider the principle reason he's not staying with Casey Research. When Frank Porter Stansberry and Doug Casey agreed to merge their companies (Stansberry majority owner, Casey now minority), one of the Stansberry stipulations on the deal is that analysts at his shop cannot own or trade the stocks they cover. That's been a house rule at Stansberry Research ever since he was whacked by the SEC and that's fair enough.

All the Casey people agreed to that, all except Marin Katusa. That's because he's still addicted to buying positions quietly and then selling his own shares for blackhat profits just after he pumps them to his sheep-like subscribers. He could get away with his scumbag ways at Casey, but no longer. Therefore he's decided to set up on his own.

UPDATE: And good morning to the sycophants at CEO.ca and their illustrious chief ass-licker Tommy Humphreys, a person who is very much part of the problem, not the solution.



*No, not linking to the scumbag, he gets no free publicity from IKN, if you care enough find it on the googlymachine

The world informs me that I need to care about Newmarket Gold (NGN.v) now

In a nutshell: Big swinging dick mining people get together and repackage the Crocodile Gold (CRK.to) assets into a new company that raises cash in order to pay down the welter burden of Croc's corporate debt. Okay, fair enough, I've heard worse plans and if we retail snot-noses are lucky, a little of the cash will eventually flow to the bottom line of the Newco and the shares will go up. What? Cynical, moi? Mais non...

Anyway, here's the scrip termsheet on the deal being run by GMP, with BMO up there and Haywood and RBC along for the ride too.





x

Argentina elections: An excellent opinion poll tracker

It's right here on this link, it shows all polls in an interactive way with plenty of details available, it's up to date and complete, it's easy on the eye, too. Here's a screenshot...


...but to enjoy the full effect, go to the site and see for yourself. Top quality work and this link is now on the links to the right of this page until October.

5/10/15

Dead miners in Chile and Peru, 2000 to 2014

Last year Peru got its number of fatalities in the mining industry down to 32, which is a big improvement on previous years and worthy of applause. It's still more than in Chile, though:


Data from Peru's MEM here and Chile Sernageomin here.

The IKN Weekly out now



The only possible choice today

IKN313 has just been sent to subscribers. Where there's mux there's brass.

So I stuck that silly U2 survey question up this morning and there are 53 participants already. On a Sunday! People, what the devil are you doing reading this blog on a Sunday? Nobody comes round here on a Sunday, don't you have a mother to love and give choccies to or something? 

We'll stop at 200. 

A poll on U2

Most discerning music fans understand that Irish rock band U2 were important, relevant and brought something new and different to the table back in the day, but they now suck. The question however, is when did Bono and his pals turn from edgy (geddit) leaders of music and political opinion to unimportant musically irrelevant tax-dodging cashers-in of modern celebrity society? 

It came up again over the weekend (not the first time Iwnattos and I have chewed it over) therefore the poll you see above, here on the blog, that will be open until Friday 22nd May max (though I'll probably close it sooner). You get one vote, use it wisely. 

Here's a print-out of it for those of you on the daily mailer seeing this Monday, you need to come to the blog main page to vote, people.