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7/4/15

Congratulations Chile

Chile are the new Copa America champions, beating Argentina on penalties after 120 minutes of no goals in the final. Chile kept their nerve better, goalkeeper Claudio Bravo man of the tournament and will go into National Hero status. The whole team in fact.

The truth: Chile deserved it today. Well done.

PS: Football is life.

Sandstorm (SSL.to) (SAND) continues to throw good money after bad

This time at Luna Gold (LGC.to), the very company it wasted oodles on until last year when Nolan pretended to insist that SAND wouldn't bail them out any longer. But the reality is...



...another $2.5m flushed down this moneypit company by Emperor-Sans-Vetements, Nolan Watson. And gotta love how these things get their public filing on an Independence Day long weekend, it's almost as if they have something to hide.

But let's not break the spell about the dashing and industry-leading Nolan by pointing out that he's full of shit and the leader of dozens of failed deals, with this one destined for exactly the same trashcan. Wouldn't be fair, right?

The most visited IKN post this week is...

...this one, "Abitibi Royalties (RZZ.v): Read the smallprint", which just beat out the Greek two drachmas post. 

And that's good, because in the end what we do round here that's made a difference over the years is shine a light on the shady types that populate the TSXV, that most sordid of stock exchanges.

7/3/15

Greece contagion: Where do these people get their ideas from, I wonder?

This dated July 3rd on Bloomie (your author highlights bits and pieces):

It is the scenario few talk of: What if Greece left the euro area and its economy thrived?
The reason for the silence may be that it’s too ridiculous a concept to even consider.
As the country’s referendum on austerity nears, economists are lining up to warn that quitting the euro and defaulting on its debts would make Greece an even bigger pariah in financial markets and push it toward a deeper depression with the bankruptcies, unemployment and social unrest that entails.
Such pain, so the conventional wisdom goes, would scare the likes of Spain and Portugal into rededicating themselves to the German-branded austerity and economic reform that membership of the single currency demands. To some, a euro zone without Greece would be smaller yet possibly stronger.
But economists at Oxford Economics Ltd. and Citigroup Inc. this week gave voice to the question of what would happen if Greece dusted itself down within a couple of years and rode a falling currency back to economic growth.
That would challenge the theory that leaving the euro was economic suicide. And it could encourage other members to consider devaluation and default more appealing than life within the euro and so pose an even bigger threat to the currency bloc’s sustainability than if Greece stayed.

This dated June 28th on IKN, reprinted on Monday 29th just for fun on the open blog:

From the outside looking in (my viewpoint South of the Equator is as close to detached as they come in capitalist terms) I see Greece and Syriza playing a very big game of chicken with ECB/Troika/IMF. And Syriza is playing it well too, the snap call for a referendum is populist yes, it's cheap yes, it's a handing off of responsibility when the Euro exit hammer comes down yes, but it's also a reasonably astute chessmove that must have shaken its opposites hard. You have to wonder just how much Merkel, to name but one, is prepared to gamble (because it's now just that, it's very very high stakes gambling) on Greece today. And I repeat, the big gamble isn't whether Greece goes through a couple of tough years because that's a given whatever happens in the days ahead, austerity pill or Drachma pill. The big one is whether Greece follows the pattern of Argentina and Iceland and emerges economically robust and dynamic after a modest rough seas period. Whatever course be taken, Greece does not die tomorrow, nor next week. That's also true for the Euro tomorrow and next week. The acid test, the Euro and its potential to unravel, will be the economic progress of Greece if it's allowed to leave the Eurozone because the second any other Southern Eurozone member starts to feel jealous of Greece's lot, the game is over. 

Just sayin'.


At last! Some decent reporting on all this alleged climate change nonsense

Real reporting on climate change matters isn't easy to come across.

The Friday OT: Andrés Calamaro; Crímenes perfectos

Lyrics below to the most beautifully sad song I know.



Sentiste alguna vez lo que es tener el corazón roto
Sentiste a los asuntos pendientes volver hasta volverte muy loco
Si resulta que sí, si podrás entender lo que me pasa a mí esta noche
Ella no va a volver y la pena me empieza a crecer, adentro
La moneda cayó por el lado de la soledad y el dolor
Todo lo que termina, termina mal, poco a poco
Y si no termina se contamina más y eso se cubre de polvo
Me parece que soy de la quinta que vio el mundial 78, me tocó crecer viendo a mi alrededor paranoia y dolor
La moneda cayó por el lado de la soledad otra vez
No me lastimes con tus crímenes perfectos, mientras la gente indiferente se da cuenta
De vez en cuando, solamente sale afuera la pena real
Si resulta que sí, si podrás entender lo que me pasa a mí esta noche
Ella no va a volver y la pena me empieza a crecer, adentro
La moneda cayó por el lado de la soledad y el dolor
La moneda cayó por el lado de la soledad otra vez
La moneda cayó por el lado de la soledad.

CEO CA chat

For what it's worth, I signed on to the CEO CA chatroom for the first time yesterday and hung around for a few minutes. To relieve the boredom, mainly. It was okay and I even ran into a couple of people I know, which was good.

I'll probably be there on and off for a couple of weeks to check it out (though limited today Friday, have extra-bureau things to do). Come over and say hi if you like. Tommy loves you.

PS: Oh yeah, the link. That's here.

Colombia: A court suspension of Decree 2691

Yesterday, a high-ranking court in Colombia placed a provisional suspension on "Decreto 2691", the decree the national government tried to sneak onto the statute at Christmas last year that took away a local or municipal government's right of decision on the use of land destined for mining activity and placed it with the national government.

Want that in English?

1) Colombia's mining industry was getting pretty fed up with the way local governments would block projects from going ahead.
2) The national government tried to pass a law on December 23rd last year to say they couldn't do it any more by stopping the change of land use.
3) The courts have just said that what the Santos national government tried to push through (while nobody was looking) is inconstitutional and they can't do it.

Oh dear.

But hey, don't worry about niceties like law or rules, just believe whatever dumb freakin' pump your sellside Canadian moron analysts throw at you about the latest Colombian slam dunk junior.


Chart of the day is...

...gold, weeklies:


All goldbugs need to thank Barry Ritholtz, because without his "gold's going lower" dumbassery the other day the metal would never have rebounded. Or summink.

7/2/15

This must really hurt (his ego)

Full NR here, pastey here:

TORONTO, ONTARIO--(Marketwired - July 2, 2015) - McEwen Mining Inc. (NYSE:MUX) (TSX:MUX) announced today that it has fallen below the New York Stock Exchange ("NYSE") continued listing requirement related to the price of its common stock. The NYSE requires that the average closing price of a listed company's common stock be above US$1.00 per share, calculated over a period of 30 consecutive trading days. The Company was advised by the NYSE on July 1, 2015 that the average price of our common stock for the previous 30 trading days was below US$1.00 per share.
Under the NYSE's rules, McEwen Mining has a period of six months from July 1, 2015, the date of the Company's acknowledgement, to bring its share price and 30 day average closing share price back above US$1.00. During this period, McEwen Mining's common stock will continue to trade on the NYSE, subject to all other continued listing requirements. The Company's listing on the Toronto Stock Exchange ("TSX") is unaffected by any actions of the NYSE.  
"We do not believe that McEwen Mining's current share price is reflective of the true value of the Company's assets. Our share price has been under pressure as a result of the decline in gold and silver prices and a general reduction in financing options that have affected many companies in the mining space. The Company values its NYSE listing and will evaluate measures to bring our share price into compliance with listing requirements." said Rob McEwen, Chairman and Chief Owner. "We have recently initiated a dividend distribution based on our improving operational performance and growing cash reserves, and we beat our Q2 production guidance at the El Gallo Mine, the third consecutive quarter with record production. We expect to continue our production success over the remainder of the year, maintaining guidance for production and costs" he added. 
At the end of the six-month remedy period, if the share price has not recovered, the Company's stock will be subject to NYSE suspension and delisting procedures.

Hey Rob, consider a reverse stock split yeah? 

The stupidity of mining analysts: Watch for the tells

They tend to be small ones, but when they come along they're windows on how plug dumb stupid these people truly are. Our example today is Tanya Jakusconek of Scotia and her decision to drop her price target for Goldcorp (GG) (G.to) from U$28.00 to U$27.50. Like I say, a small thing perhaps but it's the reason behind the call which screams teh stooopid. GG's price target is lowered by Scotia because it sold its holding of Tahoe Resources (THO.to) (TAHO) in the now-closed secondary.

Therefore we can state that according to Ms Jakusconek and Scotia, by selling 58,051,692 shares of THO at CAD$17.20 apiece Goldcorp deserves to suffer even though the shares are already C$2 lower than the price GG got, and the difference is beneficial to GG to the tune of C$115m (14c/share), it's a bad decision and GG needs to be marked down for it. Or perhaps Ms Jakusconek and Scotia know more about the valuation of Tahoe than GG, even though ex-GG head Kevin MacArthur chairs the thing and Goldcorp spun out the Escobal asset from its own structure in order to create it. Or maybe unicorns. Or maybe these people just make this shit up as they go along and then find a reverse-engineering reason or excuse to change a price target. 

Oh no, that last one never. Never happens in Canadian sellside brokerages. Never.


A semi-positive for Capstone (CS.to)

Today, Chile's relevant environmental agency for the Atacama region recommended that the Santo Domingo copper/iron ore project be granted its environmental permits. This is a solid step forward on the permitting track and virtually guarantees that the full and official Environmental Permit (EIA, or ICE if you use the Chilean acronym) be granted in the next quarter, or end 2015 at the very latest.

However, it's only a semi-positive for CS.to because at present metals prices the project's never going to get built.

Link to Spanish language report here.

Message for the insto jocks who bought Continental Gold (CNL.to)...

... at height of last week's sellside bullshit pump and now find themselves 10% underwater:



Time to start doing some DD on the scammers that run the company, dontchathink? Y'know, before that 10% loss turns into a 20% loss. Or 30%.




New Gold (NGD) is another that now has my attention as a potential bargain

This comparative chart shows how badly Mister Elephant's charge has been doing recently.



I'm going to run an analysis on NGD in IKN321 this weekend, subbers. At this price it's interesting enough to care about it again.

The Stansberry/Casey scumbag pumpers are pushing Romarco (R.to) at you

Just so you know.

A better class of gold bug

Gary T over at Biiwii does what I can't be bothered to do and replies to Ritholtz's gold baiting piece of yesterday. The other thing with Gary is that he does it much better than I could have done. Excerpt:
"I am a gold bug.  I saw the “improvement of the U.S. economy” when it was appropriate to see it, ahead of time.  When you obsess on the other kind of gold bug, the media star with the Armageddon-like predictions and inflammatory ‘analysis’ or Kool-Aid drinking hate mailers, you do a disservice to your readership because you only present the other side of something that is not real to begin with.  You in essence stand up a Straw Man and periodically set fire to him, really to no one’s benefit."

Whole thing here.

PS: And this, 42 minutes of summer music perfection.

Gold Resource Corp (GORO)

Here's a post you weren't expecting: I think this could finally be a buy at this level.



Every dog has its day. Maybe's GORO's is during the dog days.

7/1/15

July 1st brings a strongly bullish signal on gold

My life, I realize suddenly, is July. Childhood is June, 
and old age is August, but here it is, July, and 
my life, this year, is July inside of July.
Rick Bass

Barry Ritholtz has decided to chirp in again on how gold has no bid. This has been an excellent contrarian signal all year, as the moment Ritholtz can't resist gloating on how badly gold's been doing is the day it ticks a bottom. 

Meanwhile, The World Complex brings you some real news on gold, the way China's stopping people from taking it out of the country. Truly interesting.

Chart of the day is...

...gold versus silver versus the S&P500, 2015 year to date (i.e. the first six months of the year):


Ain't that a thing? All the rah-rah love talk about the USA market, compared to all the trashtalk about owning precious metals, but give or take a lick and a spit they've performed exactly the same in the first two quarters of 2015.

6/30/15

Copa America 2015: The final

Home advantage is with Chile, they have decent players coming to form, but the cruel reality is that Argentina will beat Chile on Saturday and be the 2015 Copa America champions. 

This is not a difficult call.

Mo' chicken

On the back of yesterday's two Drachma's worth of thoughts on Greece, your humble scribe is sent a link by reader DK. The article is entitled 'Inherent Vice', it comes from Salient Partners, and it is must-read material, far and away the best thing I've read on the whole subject of Greek risk.

If you read one single thing on investment today, make it this. Thank you DK, most kind of you to give the headsup.

Silver miners versus silver in the first six months of 2015

The close later this afternoon marks the end of the first half of 2015 and as I rootled around this morning checking on things, it came to pass that I noticed how silver the metal hasn't done as badly as its recent negative publicity might suggest.



BUT...the mining companies producing silver suck. Here's a reasonably representative bunch of them and their NYSE tickers and as you can see, they're all down, the average fail is around at least 10% on the year to date. Some are a lot lower.

6/29/15

Abitibi Royalties (RZZ.v): Read the smallprint

My thanks to reader A who gave me the headsup on this stock's filing. Here's note 19 from the financials:




Cool huh? And you thought the self-serving Canadian Venture Exchange rip-off was dead, didn't you?

UEC 2

You will now recall the names of the newsletter writers that told you the sell-off a few days ago was a great buying opportunity. Examples include Louis Lobito Little Wolf James and Gwen Maven Preston.


Neither of whom have a single freaking clue about what they're messing with. Which is of course normal for the mining newsletter world.

IKN's two drachmas on Greece

A short segment from yesterday's intro to IKN320:

From the outside looking in (my viewpoint South of the Equator is as close to detached as they come in capitalist terms) I see Greece and Syriza playing a very big game of chicken with ECB/Troika/IMF. And Syriza is playing it well too, the snap call for a referendum is populist yes, it's cheap yes, it's a handing off of responsibility when the Euro exit hammer comes down yes, but it's also a reasonably astute chessmove that must have shaken its opposites hard. You have to wonder just how much Merkel, to name but one, is prepared to gamble (because it's now just that, it's very very high stakes gambling) on Greece today. And I repeat, the big gamble isn't whether Greece goes through a couple of tough years because that's a given whatever happens in the days ahead, austerity pill or Drachma pill. The big one is whether Greece follows the pattern of Argentina and Iceland and emerges economically robust and dynamic after a modest rough seas period. Whatever course be taken, Greece does not die tomorrow, nor next week. That's also true for the Euro tomorrow and next week. The acid test, the Euro and its potential to unravel, will be the economic progress of Greece if it's allowed to leave the Eurozone because the second any other Southern Eurozone member starts to feel jealous of Greece's lot, the game is over. 


Your Greece flight to quality

The goldbug investment philosophy can be boiled down to, "I don't understand how the world works, so listen to me."



I'm sorry, it's just that goldbugs are their very own cartoon.

The IKN Weekly, out now



IKN320 has just been sent to subscribers and I'm sorry to inform all you prophets of doom out there, but 2% off the Nikkei does not count as a crisis. 

6/28/15

A couple of decent links

This one goes to a report entitled "Why rare-earth mining in the West is a bust", which is sub-headed "Forget the hype. In the global rush for energy-critical elements, our region can't compete". A very good longread coming on the back of the Chapter 11 of Molycorp.

This link goes to Brent Cook's appearance on BNN's Market Call. One hour 46 minutes of the whitebearded one on junior mining stocks, for your amusement and pleasure.

PS: Here's that Trevali post mentioned by Cook in the show (min 36:30) that shows the market cap chart next to the share price chart.

He gets my hug

You may have seen this already online. That's fine, watch it again.

It's good to remember things at which the human excels and what has made us a successful animal on this planet.



Com, Latin: together
Pati, Latin: to suffer
Compassion, Modern English: Deep awareness of the suffering of another, coupled with the wish to relieve it.