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6/5/16

UPDATED Peru presidential election: Photo finish (edit: but PPK's almost certainly won it)

UPDATE: It's looking good for PPK, see below

Here are the three exit polls that were released at 4pm local time Peru as voting closed over the country:
  • IPSOS: PPK 50.4% Keiko 49.6%
  • GfK: PPK 51.2% Keiko 48.8%
  • CPI: PPK 48.9% Keiko 51.1%
Or in other words, two exit polls say PPK, one says Keiko and nobody is going to be stupid enough to concede defeat until all the votes are counted.

Tomorrow morning we'll have a decent idea as by then, around 80% of the official votes are expected logged. But there will be no victory parties tonight, that's for sure.


UPDATE: We now have the first Fast Count results through, which is normally a strong indication of the true final result (the system involves the polling company reps running from polling station to polling station and asking the results from the people manning the stations, who then read off their results). 

They're now showing 50.9% PPK, versus 49.1% for Keiko.

It's not impossible for Keiko to reverse this position as it would involve a swing of less than 200,000 people and just the overseas votes would in theory be enough. But even though we can't be certain and there won't be a winner called tonight, it's looking good for PPK.

UPDATE 2: The final Fast Count result gives PPK 50.8%, Keiko 49.2%. It's not impossible to see this reversed, it's very unlikely. PPK supporters are in full voice and party time now, writing's on the wall.